abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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115 knts moving due NE at 18 mph
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Seems pretty close to track right now. I do not see a ENE movement. More like a NE movement.. If you look at the storm on satellite, its following the track points pretty well. Maybe a hint north of the track, depending upon your prospective.
Local weathermen and TV like to hype movement. Great for ratings.. Best bet is to go by Recon positions and advisories. They provide the official positions. They are providing these every hour. So there should be no confusion on direction.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Couple hours old, but just posted at - microwave pass from SSMI:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
You can see the convection circling the core almost completely now.
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place, or is there a better source? [Feel free to PM me]
As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!
Probably the Collier EOC or FEMA. They may have to be patient as they will be swamped immediately following the storm.
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Matt
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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I asked about the storm surge vs. wave height because the highest "waves" seem to be perilously close to the Keys which are, as we all know, only a few feet above sea level. I had envisioned the max surge being a bit farther north impacting primarily the northern reaches of FL Bay, the Everglades and, perhaps, Naples. Withe the exception of Naples, that would be a "good scenario" as those areas are natural marsh capable of absorbing the water and unpopulated. But if it hits the Keys, that would, arguably, be worst case.
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Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
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It is official. The 11 pm discussion is out.
Cat 3
115 MPH
958 mb
18 mph NE
***
Wave height off of Key West is 20-30 ft
Jonathan 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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First of all, please sit down and take a VERY DEEP BREATH. Thank you...now...listen.
First of all, we will have conditions close to what we have when a severe t-storm comes through Polk County. What do you tell your children then? The last thing they need to see is their mom freaking out. That will scare them more than any storm cell coming through.
If you have taken every precaution you possibly can, I would NOT wake up your children to tell them ANYTHING unless you have to...and if you do have to wake them up due to a tornado warning or anything else, do it as calmly as you can because they need to be reassured by YOU...
I have been through some scary storms ---Georges comes to mind with his tornados --- but a certain calm will come over you when it comes to dealing with your children.
Just be alert...my kids are sleeping, they know that the night may be rough, but they also know where I will be all night long.
So...now take a BIG DEEP BREATH again, and try to relax...hey, the wind isn't even blowing here yet. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Another good radar image of the eye:
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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AP-FL--Wilma-Forecast URGENT, take two
Wilma regains Category 3 strength
Tropical storm-force winds are lashing the lower Florida Keys. Minor flooding is reported in Key West.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Addicted2Cane
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc:
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Been lurking around here for a few days sucking up all the knowledge that has been spinning around here  and just wanted to shout out a big thank you. Looks like its going to be downhill from here for many on the board...good luck to all and be safe. Thanks for all of the great insight you have shared.
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Where is the wind and rain...I NEED to sleep!!
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Any word out of Key West? Rad just showed them get whacked by a supercell and this was confirmed during the last hour by the fact that a violent water spout was 13miles S of them moving north.. That cell has gone by them now..
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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I am located in Brevard Co, FL - on Merritt Island - it is very calm right now (should have TS winds tomorrow). I have an anemometer on my roof and here is a link to the data - updated every few seconds.
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/livewx.html
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Way to go Skeet!
Here's a great updated map:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24
Unbelievable. We're in Palmetto Bay (South of Miami). We're getting socked tomorrow.
Apparrently, 's outrunning the trough. So no shear.
Jonathan
What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog.
Dwight D. Eisenhower , speech to the Republican National Committee, January 31, 1958
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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You be fine. Don't alarm the kids but be alert. Read to them but keep your ears open. Good luck and God Bless
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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WFUS52 KMLB 240252
TORMLB
FLC069-240345-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0025.051024T0249Z-051024T0345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND...
* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT
* AT 1048 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH
OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
NEARLY STATIONARY.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND BY 1110 PM EDT
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.
STORMS WITHIN DOMINANT RAINBANDS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES VERY QUICKLY!
OFTEN...IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...MORE THAN ONE TORNADO IS
PRODUCED. BE PREPARED FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES MOVING
THROUGH THE RAINBAND!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.
LAT...LON 2827 8190 2830 8170 2890 8175 2886 8205
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The Weather Channel is also reporting some surge on Key West.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Quote:
Sorry to sound ignorant, but is that red blob (implying 40 ft heights) only peak-to-trough waves or is that the storm surge (which is obviously not 40 ft but could be 10 to 15 ft with 25-30 ft waves on top)?
Edit - Not quite sure as I am not a Met. However, the data is there for us to assume something is seeing 40' wave heights. 
That posted graphic link is a model, and does not include surge.
There are no working stations in the immediate area - there are two in the lower Keys, but it appears they were both damaged in September and are out of service.
Wave heights are usually given as peak-to-trough. Wave heights do not include surge, which is non-existant in deep water; it is basically "rammed water", added to by the lessened pressure (think an upwelling as pressure falls in a stick - same principle a water barometer works on.)
The only good news, if you can call it that, is that waves that are more than roughly half the height of the water under them is deep will crest and break. The reasons for this are complicated and have to do with the fact that there is "drag" on the bottom of the ocean that the wave energy runs into, which tends to "hold" the bottom of the water, causing it effectively "fall over" (develop a coamer and break)
Deep fall-offs allow wave heights to be maintained all the way up to the shore or very close to it, while shallower shelves tend to limit wave height as the shore is approached. However, whatever does reach the sthore comes in on top of the surge.
So if you have 20' waves on the beach, and a 10' surge, then the peak of the waves will be at 30' above MSL.
I would not be surprised to see 15-20' breakers on top of whatever surge that comes with it, at the eyewall and south of where it comes ashore.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The satellite presentation seems to have leveled off for now. I think the eye is simply too big and not well-organized enough for a rapid intensification to occur, though slow intensification is likely still possible for another few hours.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Live TV from the Keys
http://mfile.akamai.com/12908/live/reflector:35252.asx
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