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Tropical Storm Fay forms off the North Carolina coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Dorian) , Major: 639 (Michael) Florida - Any: 639 (Michael) Major: 639 (Michael)
42.4N 73.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
N at 17 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62722 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:00 AM

Quote:

Superfly...What's up with these numbers???

They keep going higher and higher!




Yeah no kidding, this will definitely be a cat 4 at the 3 AM advisory now.

0645 2441N 08207W 03046 5180 216 128 078 078 130 02909 0000000100
0645. 2442N 08208W 03051 5190 219 131 082 082 134 02904 0000000100
0646 2443N 08209W 03043 5204 222 132 090 090 135 02883 0000000100

135kts


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62723 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:01 AM

Flight level winds of 135 knots. Wow, this is unreal. I am extremely interested in what the 3 am advisory says.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: superfly]
      #62724 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:01 AM

And those are from the SE Quadrant...right?
They are NW bound approaching the EYE.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62725 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:04 AM

3am advisory is a few minutes late... they are probably debating about the what to do with the winds.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62726 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:07 AM

3 am is out, they upped it to 120. Probably will have an update if the next pass through on the north side reveals the same flight level winds.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62727 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:08 AM

They bumped the winds up a little to 120 mph. I assume they are questioning whether those readings are representative of the intensity and whether they will persist.

Also, there was this from the latest advisory:

THE PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATE WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE EAST.
AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE Wilma WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62728 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:18 AM

A possible tornado was indicated by radar near Naples about 30 minutes ago, but that storm has since moved offshore. Also, people in Kissimmee need to take cover:

OSCEOLA FL-
308 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 300 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR SAINT CLOUD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

KISSIMMEE BY 320 AM EDT


IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62729 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:18 AM

URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb....Down 3mb in 65minutes.
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65....bigger by 5 miles!
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL

Lightning Normally means the storm is intensifying!!

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 AM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62730 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 AM

Well, there it goes again. It doesn't look pretty on radar or satellite, but there is some extremely intense convection on the west side of the system and it is still deepening.



Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 24 2005 03:21 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Course Change [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62731 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:29 AM

From the last two fixes...Heading of 73.2degrees True

91nm from shore. On this heading of 73.2 degrees Wilma would Hypothetically make landfall on the Florida West Coast...Due West of Cutler Ridge.
(this hypothetical position is half way between Marcos Island and the Southern tip of Florida, near Florida Bay)

I'm sorry but she is throwing too many curves.

If you Are in the Area South of Ft Myers please Prepare NOW to take Cover!!

As Wilma's course and Intensity is changing rapidly.~danielw


Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2005 03:36 AM)


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62732 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:30 AM

0315 report from the Treasure Coast...no rain though a couple of very small, minor bands have passed over the last few hours. Wind is picking up here....maybe tunning a steady 20-25MPH or so. It is still very warm and very humid here

Things will be heating up from here as tropical focrce winds should be present within 2 hours or so.

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62733 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:31 AM

A dropsonde in the SE eyewall measured 139 kt winds at 850mb, but only an average of 106 kts in the last 150m, so the current intensity may be a reasonable estimate until there is further evidence of stronger winds.

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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62734 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:35 AM

True north.....HUH
are u serious


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62735 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:35 AM

The First Recon crew has been airborne for nearly 10.5 hours.
The second Recon plane is nearing Wilma.
Quick look suggests they will penetrate the NE Quadrant first...but don't hold me to that.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Big Tk]
      #62736 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:38 AM

Quote:

True north.....HUH
are u serious




I changed that reference. That Is A Mapping and GPS reference ONLY!!!

As opposed to Magnetic north on a compass...it is a reference point only for those tracking Wilma with a GPS.~danielw


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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62737 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:43 AM

The last few satellite images do look like a NNE movement towards fort myers. Not sure though

Edited by Big Tk (Mon Oct 24 2005 03:44 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Course Change [Re: danielw]
      #62738 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:43 AM

A more southerly track may occur because the lowest pressure on the entire east coast is at West Kendall. I always look for the lowest pressure ahead of the storm to see where it may go.
My current pressure is 29.40" and falling. Winds gusting to near 30 mph, but still no rain.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62739 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:48 AM

If you are In SW Florida. South of Ft Myers. AND within 1 mile of the Water. Please make plans to go higher in your place of safety.
This is only a precaution at this time. I am basing this on Katrina's behavior. As we don't know what Wilma will do.

Lower your attic ladders, so you can access them quickly. If you have life preservers...Keep them close by.
Flashlights, battery operated radio and a chainsaw or other tools for cutting through the roof.

Don't forget bottled water and possibly some food.
It could be a while before Rescue Crews arrive.

This is very harsh posting...but under the current Rapidly Changing situation I feel it necessary to Post it.

Cell phones may not work, but take them with you.

There is also the high probability of wind damage to your attics and roofs.
Remember..Hide from the wind and Run from the water.

This is dramatic, but it might make a difference somewhere.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Course Change [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62740 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:49 AM

Pressure is low all over the place, the storm is just getting close to you and also West Kendall just happens to be closer to the storm. 29.56 here and falling

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: danielw]
      #62741 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:50 AM

Key West airport reported a gust of 72 kts (83 mph) at 2:16 ET, before communications to the automated reporting site were lost at 2:52 ET. Also, storm surge flooding estimated at 3.5 feet was reported at the airport at 3:10 ET.

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