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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
00Z Soundings [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62530 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:41 PM

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62531 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:46 PM

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...PORT SAINT JOHN
.. UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
.. AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO OVER COCOA...APPROACHING MERRITT ISLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AT 943 PM...NEAR THE HUBERT HUMPHREY BRIDGE.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE OVER NORTH MERRITT ISLAND
AND BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW...SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!!
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN A STRONG
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF NECESSARY...GET UNDER
A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR
PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. ABANDON YOUR MOBILE HOME OR RV FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...GET INTO AN
UNFLOODED DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS AND
ARMS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE TORNADO IS NEARBY.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62532 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM

Still only slow intensification noted on the latest recon, though as Margie has been pointing out, it has likely reached cat 3 status now. More rapid intensification will not occur until a single eyewall forms... right now there seems to be (almost) two eyewalls.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Margie]
      #62533 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62534 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:51 PM

Quote:

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?




Untrue... 84 is plenty... It depends on numerous factors... Heck, you had Vince in the eastern Atlantic over waters that were 72 I think (check that)...Anyway, point being, peculiararities about her internal structure and also how she's interacting with her environment are more inducive then any rigidity surrounding generalized SST rules.

Namely, she has an extraordinarily powerful outlfow channel established that is rocketing mass from the rim of her upper CDO to Greenland at about ludicrous speed... Sarcasm aside, it really is a potent artifice of circumstantial design...

a) She travels inside the belly of an air mass that is moving along with her, together, she and this air mass are not suffering the ill-affects of shearing erosions and dry air entrainments, because of storm relative shear, which I explained in an earlier post and am getting leary of re-writing...
b) There is a very strong U/A windfield moving into the SE U.S.; the enterance region of a strong negative anomaly (deep trough) carving out between 75 and 80W.. This wind max is moving SW-NE and has latched onto Wilma's outflow, yanking it right along and enhancing the hell out of it... That is why you see the outflow channel so strongly on her NNE polarward side..

a) + b) = c) ...Cataclysm, Catastrophy, you name it... She will have the ability to maximize for these rare combinations of well-timed parametrics. ...Not etched in stone of course, but judging by sat/rad...I think cat 3 is easy... 125 at landfall...no problem... (Early est and I retain the right to eat crow in peace! )

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 00Z Soundings [Re: danielw]
      #62535 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




That sort of helicity coupled with the instability in place is supportive of a few strong (F2 or higher) tornadoes. The helicity is not necessarily higher than you would expect with an approaching hurricane, but the amount of instability is somewhat higher. This is due to some good heating today over south Florida and a lack of a major precipitation shield ahead of the system.

The timing of the landfall may mitigate the overall tornado threat somewhat, though what tornadoes that do form will be more dangerous because it is dark and they will be fast moving and hard to track. If the storm was approaching closer to peak heating, an even more widespread tornado event might have been possible.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62536 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM

Quote:

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.



If I'm not mistaken Derek has his landfall futher south than most have predicted. I think it is his belief that from WPB to Miami will take the brunt of this storm. I will go back and read his post from this afternoon to be sure.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62537 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:55 PM

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62538 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:57 PM

The previous update was old... here is the new one:

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN Wilma WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62539 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 PM

WOW..... UH OH... NASA "MIGHT" BE IN TROUBLE!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-051024T0230Z/
BREVARD FL-
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 953 PM EDT...MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR... AS WELL AS HIGH RESOLUTION
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN MERRITT
ISLAND NEAR COURTENAY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER COMPLEX.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED!!! I DIDN'T ADD THE !!! MARKS
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 1030 PM EDT
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LAT...LON 2837 8084 2837 8067 2840 8067 2859 8060

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:01 PM)


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62540 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM

Quote:

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART




Based on the latest vortex message, she's still north of the "line" or projected path. I agree with Tip; this looks more like a Bonita event.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62541 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM

That must have been posted an hour ago then.

Glad Stewart is on tonight. Can't wait to read the 10pm if he's going to be writing it up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62543 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:02 PM

I'm getting quite a few PMs about what to expect in ___ area.
I don't mind the PMs but there are over 910 people on site right now.

If you were in Florida last year and went through any of the Hurricanes that pummeled the state.
Think and plan on the idea that it will get Bad.
Set your sights and thinking one step above that level.

Then hope and pray that it doesn't get there. If it does...you are prepared right now.

If the weather will permit it where you live. Make a quick check around the house for anything that will blow....anything.
Then get your 'safe room' in order so you can go there at a moments notice.
That means finding a mattress to shield/ cover yourself with.

Okay Jim Cantore just said it!..."You Need To Seek Shelter Before Midnight Tonight."
I didn't hear him say an exact location. If you are in or on the Florida Peninsula.It wouldn't be a bad idea.

Oh and go ahead and prepare the kids. Tell them it's going to get really, really Bad. In whatever manner you wish. So they can be somewhat prepared for it.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: 00Z Soundings [Re: danielw]
      #62547 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




Hi Danny..
The kind of Storm Relative Helicity in question is a measure consisting of two parameters:
1) Stream line shear with height.
2) Directional shear with height.

1)...is the increase in wind velocity ascending through the layer in question.
2)...is the change in wind direction asceding in altitude.
The calculations are performed at 1km and 3km layers above ground level.

The units suggest this in being m/ss. The larger the SRH, the greater the chance for tornado development.
SRH Value Tornado Potential
150-299 weak
300-449 moderate
>450 strong

Simpler "Helicity" is just a measure of rotation in a storm's updraft... You can bet that a huge SRH value will be codependent.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62548 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM

If High-Res Terminal Doppler is indicating a tornado, then there is debris in the air. That storm looks nasty right now, like something you would see in the Plains during tornado season.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: danielw]
      #62549 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:07 PM

WOW. Looking at the Wunderground loop with storm signatures ("show storms") - you can clearly see the Tornado Vortex Signature near the cape, but thankfully it looks like it's slightly west of the launch pads and VAB. WAY too close for comfort though - this is going to be a long night.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62551 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 PM

YEAH.... i don't have my GRLevel up... bet would be some crazy images... including level II data from MLB right now... (storm was close to nexrad)...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: JG]
      #62552 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.



That's right over my house.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62553 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM

WFUS52 KTBW 240205
TORTBW
FLC105-240230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0026.051024T0204Z-051024T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62554 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:11 PM

live WESH doppler

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx

(not zoomed in) anyone have GRlevel3 running?

just in:

Tornado Warning: key west

AT 1006 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING NORTH AT 60
MPH.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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