Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 22 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3197 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
R2RICKSTER
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Delray Beach, Fla
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: JMII]
      #62639 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM

With Wilma moving so fast by the time it gets to the east coast will there be any "calm time" in the eye, if it passes over me in Delray Beach ?

--------------------
Andrew was enough for me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62640 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:07 AM

Landfall continues right on NHC path..maybe slightly N of there near Bonita Springs.....I see no reason to disagree with a landfall between Ft Myers and Naples....36hrs ago I posted a premature forecast saying it would probably be Sarasota-Charlotte counties maybe a tad N or S of there...but given the drift E off the coast and never going N (like a couple models showed) this brings the center further down the coast by 50miles....Any jog to the N will be a Sanible Island landfall and any jog to the south would bring it over the Everglades.......since this does have a large circulation...Hurricane forces winds will be from Sarasota county south to near the keys. Also the east coast from N or Miami-Vero Beach. TS winds will be from Pasco County-Daytona......... Expect many tornados throughout the state tonight into the morning hours,,,especially in the hurricane warning area and south florida into the afternoon on monday........

This will be my last update on Wilma./

scottsvb


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Key West [Re: Ned]
      #62641 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:08 AM

I just asked Colleen the same for Tampa, cause I missed Jervey, basically the same as your quote for Tampa

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: weathernut2]
      #62642 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:09 AM

No, I don't think it will make a sudden shift like Charley. Charley was moving slower than Wilma is now, and she is only expected to keep chugging along at a good rate of speed. Most mets (TV mets) have agreed that it's pretty much a straight shot with not a lot of deviation in track...of course they have to add that it *might* happen, but I think they are talking only about a fews miles left or right.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernut2
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Lake Wales fl
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62644 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:13 AM

The reason i brought up the shift like with Charley is because of the history of this storm when it came close to land before it hit cozumel it slowed down and took and more westerly course than they expected and also slowed down more than they had predicted as well. but right now im just watching for any meso's to pop up as they did earlier in the central part of the state.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: Key West [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #62645 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:14 AM

My grandmother is "hunkered down" in Tavernier in the Keys. Her response is "I have made it this long, I'll be allright..." Conchys don't like to leave. I on the other hand, have been boarded up in Port St. Lucie since Thursday night. (Bad memories from last year's double whammy)

Other than the 5:00/11:00 NHC full adviseries, are there any other places to get updates on the sustained hurricane force winds in the mean time?

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62646 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM

Well, this storm isn't going to make landfall until early morning, so there's no point in me sitting up all night waiting for it and then be exhausted in the morning! So I'm calling it a night...
I hope everyone stays safe and sound wherever you are!
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 80
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Key West [Re: weathernut2]
      #62647 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM

She's not gonna slow down but I still expect a tad more northern bend

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62648 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:22 AM

There is a slowly increasing band of convection currently approaching the middle Keys and the south peninsula moving north. Nothing too severe at the moment, but some of that activity may try to develop a little further with time. There will be a risk of tornadoes with any intense isolated cell that develops, though at the moment the cells do not appear to be quite intense enough for tornadic activity.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CMS
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Key West [Re: collegemom]
      #62649 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:23 AM

The Dry Torugas Buoy at the tip of the keys was showing winds a hair below hurricane strength (74.8mph) at 11pm. No data since then......

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/DRYF1.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: CMS]
      #62650 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:27 AM

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z... DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST
FLORIDA INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE Wilma
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160
MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST...
AND A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS MEASURED BY THE C-MAN OBSERVING SITE ON
SOMBRERO KEY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62651 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:47 AM

URNT12 KNHC 240443
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:21:40Z
B. 24 deg 41 min N
083 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2720 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 294 deg 112 kt
G. 206 deg 036 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 12 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3041 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 26
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 203 / 29NM


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62652 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:48 AM

Quote:

No, I don't think it will make a sudden shift like Charley. Charley was moving slower than Wilma is now, and she is only expected to keep chugging along at a good rate of speed. Most mets (TV mets) have agreed that it's pretty much a straight shot with not a lot of deviation in track...of course they have to add that it *might* happen, but I think they are talking only about a fews miles left or right.




Hi Colleen,
You should pay attention to the radar imagery here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....Particularly, take note of the last 2 or 3 frames in that loop... I'd have to say a fairly distinguishable NNE jog is underway... Obviously, vastly too soon to determine the significants of this.. Also, I'm under the impression that the eye wall has indeed contracted... I need to be away for an hour; returned with a fresh point of view, and even in these frames it seems that could be taking place...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62654 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:52 AM

Just got back (1 1/2 hours of cat drama...she accidently got out) -- this is looking very bad for the Keys.

Trying to get a handle on what is going on. The eye is not filled in on radar, but appears to be filled in on some sat frames but not others. The most recent 85ghz scan is a partial one from around 9pm, only showing the west side, which looked pretty darn good.

From the oval appearance (mainly the convection is what is oval), it appears she is going to size down to a compact ring around the large eye. I think she is still strengthening and will take on a more donut-type appearance in the next couple hours.

Looks like the southern part of the eyewall is going to graze the Keys, and in short order they're going to get a terrific storm surge when the eyewall comes in with its SE and then E winds...but even worse, if the storm tracks dead reckoning, then they'll get an even larger subsequent surge from the NW, as the west side of the eyewall passes over. They're already showing flooding there, of course, on the order of several feet, but when the surge comes in, the water will rise rapidly, possibly as high as 15 feet, within 60 to 90 minutes. It won't even get much of a chance to recede before the second surge comes in, which may be higher.


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Oct 24 2005 01:03 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62655 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:54 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1238 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF RAMROD KEY...MOVING NORTH AT
70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BIG PINE KEY...LITTLE TORCH KEY...RAMROD KEY AND MIDDLE TORCH KEY
BY 1255 AM EDT
BIG TORCH KEY BY 100 AM EDT

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVE RAPIDLY...ARE OFTEN
WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN...AND ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY
ARE VERY CLOSE. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR FLORIDA.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Key West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62656 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:59 AM

I agree Tip, I feel that the jog is especially apparent on the visible satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The angle that she comes in at is pretty significant too, as if she comes in with a more northerly angle, she could affect eastern orlando and perhaps the eastern central florida coast more, or if she comes in as currently forecast, Miami could be in for a big time hit.

Where do you currently think Wilma will make landfall? Perhaps Ft. Myers?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Pressure Drop [Re: Margie]
      #62657 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:02 AM

Hopefully this storm will run out of ocean before it can intensify any more. I think alot of people in the heavily populated regions of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach are going to be in for a shock tomorrow. They really weren't worrying about a cat. 1 storm from the west. Pressure dropping even faster now. -.07" in the last hour here. Down to 29.53". A very muggy 82 degrees with a dew point of 77. Winds only to 23 mph and no rain.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62658 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:10 AM

The link below is very handy... you can view a still image or radar loop, display current warnings, and the distance calculator at the bottom of the page is useful for estimating the diameter of the eye and the distance to land:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62659 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:11 AM

You know, I saw Max M was on CNN so I turned the sound on...he talked for awhile and mentioned how the dry torgtugas recently saw 80-90mph winds. So he finishes and then the idiot woman reporter on CNN comments, wow, the storm is moving 80 to 90 miles per hour.

Yeah I thought...it is about done, because it's running out of ocean, but then I took another look and thought that if it was going to consolidate its size, and slough off some from the top and bottom, it could try to bring that convection around, and tighten up. Admittedly it hasn't done much of that tonight. Wilma's intensity has been increasing but at a very slow rate, but right now she doesn't look like she's ready to stop.

Just saw the recon, and the pressure has continued to drop (jeez T12 do you realize that I was responding to like your sixth post back? You're setting some kind of record for number of posts per day!). It could get down to 950 before the main circulation started over land. I think the convection is going to compact, watch and see the large knob of circulation to the north fly off, and Wilma be a little stronger in an hour.

Note -- that eye is so large that it is a possibility that NHC will have the eye pass over them...practically every part of south FL will.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Oct 24 2005 01:21 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Key West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62660 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:17 AM

I don't see it turning at all, if anything it's moving ENE. If it keeps this track I believe she'll make landfall a tad south of the projected path

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 27 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 88337

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center