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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida
      #63069 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:46 AM

South Florida took a severe beating, many high rise buildings in Ft. Lauderdale and some in Miami have lost windows. Some structure failures, and in general it's a big mess down there.

All the major Airports in south Florida are closed, and most of Palm Beach, Broward, Dade are without power and many places are without running water.

The extent of all the damage in South Florida is not yet known.

Alpha has disappeared, mainly merging with Wilma. And there is no other activity in the Tropics that looks like it could develop for the next several days with the notable exception of an area in the extreme Southwestern Caribbean Sea.


Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)
Level 3 Radar Recording of Wilma


Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view Wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

90L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

91L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #63070 - Tue Oct 25 2005 11:43 AM

Hi.. i am at work right now.... somehow my office building manage to have electricity... (go figure )

Wilma was more than i thought she would be for us in Southern Dade County.... not that i wasn't prepared, just that i hadn't experienced anything like that since Andrew. I live near country walk and the front side of the storm came through around 7 am... my hurricane shutters peeled off and the windows started flexing ... It was me and my grandma and I thought the windows were not going to make it... we huddled in what i call my safe room (a powder room with no windows) Everything was fine.. lost couple of barrel tiles on the roof (need a roofer pm me ) and our fence is down, along with all our neighbors.

There are 18 out of 2600 working street lights here in Dade County, needless to say driving is a mess. There is a curfew in effect from 8 pm - 6 am... until further notice.

I work on Brickell and i see many building with windows blown out.. Brickell Avenue is under water and part of it is closed. Gas is very hard to find. 95% of the county is currently without electricity.


I want to say thank you to the moderators and posters of this board who kept me sane until i lost power. Special thank you to Danny who encouraged me to put the shutters up, although many of them came down....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: trinibaje]
      #63071 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:01 PM

I went to Melbourne to stop by my wife's office and I took 95 North when doing so. There were two noteable caravans I saw. One was a few dozen FHP cruisers heading south, another was approximately 40 FPL (and assorted other companies) trucks heading south. The calvary is coming for points impacted by Wilma and the recovery will be in full force.

May power be restored soon to those without.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63072 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 PM

From the latest TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63073 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:50 PM

Quote:

From the latest TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.




...this is interesting because several of the operational global models have been offering synoptics that would teleconnect to a weakness in that area for several runs now.. CMC for example and the NOGAPS also goes ahead an closes off a couple of isobars.

...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.

Actually, if you know of any that would be helpful.. gee - it almost seems like there's a conspiracy to keep the information under wraps, because i've found 5 potential sites and they all hang when trying to load them - so no can do... gimme a break with those odds! either that, or i just have some extraordinarily bad luck..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Oct 25 2005 12:59 PM)


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63074 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:30 PM

Those sites could all use the same data source and that data source could be down as well. Easier explanation than a conspiracy with far less steps required

Of course, I can't find any either...

But I haven't looked too hard as I've been trying to catch up on the lost productivity from Wilma.


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63075 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:46 PM

This post is for FtlaudBob, a frequent vistor to this site, who was distraught about Playa del Carmen. Apparently, he lived there for a number of years. This info. I hope will provide him with some level of comfort.


Central Playa del Carmen has electricity and people are making very good
progress in cleaning up Wilma's mess. I estimate that at least 50% of
businesses are open today and that most of the rest will open tomorrow.

In a few days there will probably be few obvious traces of our two-day ordeal -
everything just seems much 'open' due to the stripping of vegetation (which
grows back amazingly quickly in this area)

Rohan Barnett

Ah Cacao Chocolate Cafe
5a Av. y Constituyentes
http://www.ahcacao.com


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63076 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:47 PM

Typhoon Tip:

All the sites I use for SSTs are up. Here they are:

Navy: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

Rutgers (does not have the Carribean): http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&nothumbs=0

---

P.S. - take a look at this article (especially the 2nd page): http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9767275/

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:07 PM)


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63079 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:12 PM

Also http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ has one near the top.

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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63080 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:22 PM

Quote:


...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.
Quote:



Water Temps at Clearwater dropped big-time to 72 and I'm sure it will be much lower after today. Air temps right now where I live are in the low 60's.

I would expect water temps will drop to the 60's by tomorrow. I seriously doubt they will be able to support any tropical system in the eastern gulf.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: latest TWO [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #63081 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM

the twd has something to say about the sw carib feature:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

i was thinking this would take a couple or few days to consolidate into a tropical system. this time of year in that part of the basin they tend to be broad, move slowly, and come together slowly. it may come up a little faster than expected. this thing is going to move slowly... look i'm getting from the globals and ensembles is that it may start coming up early next week.. and perhaps threaten cuba and maybe the southern end of florida in the first few days of november.
there's another low-amplitude wave approaching from the east... in about two days it should be under quite favorable upper-air conditons. take a look at the 12Z ukmet, because i think that's more or less what it's going to do. not too dissimilar from alpha, really.
that vibe floating around the media about Wilma being the end of the season is looking quite uncertain today.

if you're wondering about the thing further east, it gets a lesser mention as well:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT HAS
CONSIDERABLY WLY SHEAR INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER UPPER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EFFECTS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
49W-55W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-57W.

HF 1824z25october

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:25 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63082 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM

One wonders if this season will ever end. I know we are in an active cycle of hurricanes that scientists think last at least a
couple of decades but someone told me the next two years after this one are supposed to be especially active. Is there any
scientific evidence to support that? Also, have there been very many seasons with three Cat 5 on record? What is amazing
is Wilma is 1, Rita is 4, and Katrina is 6 for lowest pressure on record and they all occurred this year. What are the odds
of that? Here's hoping Florida gets everything up and running very soon. We here in Southeast Texas are wishing the best for
ya'll.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: latest TWO [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #63083 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM

ssts off tampa are in the mid 70s,,sarasota near 77 Clearwater 76 Cedar key 74... They were about 4 dg warmer before the front went thru....I expect them to drop another 2-3 dg over the next 2-3 days then level off over the weekend then after the next big trough comes thru next week,,drop below 70......for now, expect water temps to go down to the low 70s by the weekend.

Anything that does develop in the Carribean will move slowly at first due to the strong ridge over the eastern U.S. late this week....then the high moves off the coast.. Another big trough digs down and again any system that is down there will move N then NE....Way too early to tell exact path.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63084 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:35 PM

Quote:

Those sites could all use the same data source and that data source could be down as well. Easier explanation than a conspiracy with far less steps required

Of course, I can't find any either...

But I haven't looked too hard as I've been trying to catch up on the lost productivity from Wilma.




yeah...dry humor there..sorry


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63085 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:49 PM

Curious about the discussion on SSTs. My impression, at least for the Atlantic, is that the temps don't move very quickly, but several posters have said that the temps in the Gulf will be cooled off enough from this front to make any US action likely. Does the Gulf cool off that quickly?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63086 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:02 PM

um...I have lived in Florida my whole life and I don't reacall temps dropping that fast from one front. But, hell, what do I know.

I just remember being able to swim in the GOM even into January and usually that was the cut off becuase it was too chilly.

Has Ft Laud Bob posted? Just wondering how he made out - send me a PM if you can Bob. I have been thinking of you the past few days.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Katie]
      #63087 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM

The HPC picks up the Carribean low, but shows very slow movement:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63088 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM

Quote:

Typhoon Tip:

All the sites I use for SSTs are up. Here they are:

Navy: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

Rutgers (does not have the Carribean): http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&nothumbs=0

---

P.S. - take a look at this article (especially the 2nd page): http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9767275/




Thanks for sites! Yeah...i'm familiar with the controversies over the rating system....a similar debate erupted after the 312mph sustained vortex velocity wasmeasured in the 1999 Missouri tornado outbreak... Not sure it's ever gonna fly, however, because at the end of the day, we gotta ask our selves: what difference does it really make? 180mph winds and 200mph winds are so deep into the ends of catastrophe that it becomes splitting hairs defining whether something is merely obliterated versus denuded off the face of the planet - either way...no difference. I guess the debate gets more heated, however, as building technologies evolve to the point where they are theoretically designed to withstand the heavier assaults; in which case, a category 6 might have more meaning... But, until that time, anything over a 155mph sustained is for the most part going to get you to the same result: FUBAR!
just my opionion but i don't think the next category should be "6" per say...it should say "Maximum", because, believe it or not, there is a theoretical limitation to the amount of intensity a hurricane can have for terran based physics - those equations that must incorporate everthing from gravitation constants, latent heat availability and pressure dicontinuities (which ultimately give rise to differential advection patterns and even U/A mechanics such as anticyclonics for that matter...). There is an upper theoretical limit.... The trouble is, that limit is different for every environment so the Maximum category is more at universally intended; such as, a hurricane will never have winds of "300mph on Earth because it is physically impossible"... So for all plausibilities included, Maximum means anything that is virtually stronger than a category 5 because that category certainly approaches theoretical limitations to begin with. Maximum has a usefulness in the sense that it informs people that it is at the theoretical limitation of how awesome it can be....?


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63089 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:06 PM

The 12Z GFS keeps strong westerlies (> 50 kts) at 250mb throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week, with another big trough forecast to dig down the eastern U.S. in 7-8 days. If that forecast of the synoptic pattern verifies, then anything that forms and tries to move north would rather quickly be shunted off to the NE away from the U.S., or else likely be signficantly sheared as it approaches the U.S. Obviously, that is still a ways off, so the pattern could end up being somewhat different.

The trend seems to be for the weather pattern to become hostile for any tropical system that tries to approach the U.S. in the near future, but any strong storm that might form in the Caribbean would still be a concern, even if it would be likely to reach the U.S. in a weakened state.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #63090 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:10 PM

Quote:

Quote:


...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.
Quote:



Water Temps at Clearwater dropped big-time to 72 and I'm sure it will be much lower after today. Air temps right now where I live are in the low 60's.

I would expect water temps will drop to the 60's by tomorrow. I seriously doubt they will be able to support any tropical system in the eastern gulf.




Actually, the close up IR imagery, just as Wilma was leaving the Peninsula yesterday, the cooler waters N of the Keys.. In fact, the Keys were essentially demarcating substantially colder water from the Straights waters... It was interesting to see the sudden differential in lieu of one event... That's what made me wonder about the other areas..


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