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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63135 - Wed Oct 26 2005 09:02 AM

No, Margie, it isn't wrong to be a "hobbyist" when it comes to hurricanes. The storms are fascinating. We have to
remember that the storms serve a very necessary purpose in moving heat. The earth knows what it is doing.
We made the decision to live on the coast. The key is to be prepared and move out of harm's way if necessary.
We went through Rita this year and Beaumont had extensive damage (my family was fortunate-we lost trees, shingles,
and our fence down but some people lost their homes) but I am still interested in following and learning about the storms.
This year has been especially active and every single state on the Gulf Coast has been affected by a major hurricane, some
of the states more than once. I think what we can learn from this season is how to better prepare by looking at what worked
and what didn't in the preparation and in the aftermath. There is still so much to learn about the storms also.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Clark]
      #63136 - Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 AM

Quote:

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand.


That's my point. When a large part of your job is to communicate effectively, using the media, and you can barely read a statement, not a good thing. Let's put this in the proper perspective (that would be FL politics, not something to lose your sense of humor over). Being in the public eye makes him fair game, and he didn't exactly inspire confidence; the state needs someone that can get the msg out to places like Key West in a way that will convey urgency and motivation. When a major hurricane is coming to town and you've got "hurricane fatigue," to coin a silly media phrase, it's no time to be a complete milquetoast.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63137 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:07 AM

All good points. The scale is fine. Each storm is unique in its own way and the scale can only generalize. Part of the problem
with Katrina is New Orleans didn't build those canals and levvies to "hold". This was an anticipated problem and had been talked
about for years. It was a disaster waiting to happen, not unexpected. I do wish that NHC and local media would stress the "cone
of error" more. People tend to look at that black line and say "Well, it is not coming here." and then two days later the track
is right over them. I also think with the huge storms the size of the storm should be emphazised as a larger storm affects more
areas. As for winds inland with Rita we had strong hurricane force winds in Jasper which is pretty far inland so I guess it depends
on the storm. I think it would be a good ideal to break down into more specifics what to expect from each individual storm because
they are all different but I think the scale is fine "as is" for a base. Cat 5's are rare and the three Cat 5's didn't hit land as Cat 5's
(although Katrina's surge was cat 5) so I don't think there needs to be a Cat 6 category. It will be interesting to see whether storms
continue to gain Cat 5 status more regularly over the next few years. One interesting note is the three storms that obtained
Cat 5 status and hit the Gulf Coast states all hit as Cat 3's (Katrina at Cat 4 then Cat 3). There are always people who are going
to stay during the storms. I think a lot of it depends on the emphasis placed on leaving by local officials and local meteorologists that
the people in any area trust. In any instant with these storms, the prudent thing to do is plan for the worse and hope for the best.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63138 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 AM

90L seems to have consolidated somewhat overnight and is looking more organized. It may take another nocturnal convective maximum to put it over the top, but it is starting to acquire the look of something that is going to develop. SHIPS still does not show a whole lot of development and the BAM models are still pushing it west. The 00Z GFDL actually develops this into a 950mb-ish hurricane as it brushes the coast of Nicaragua before finally turning more to the west and moving inland after 84 hours.

The system approaching the lesser Antilles is now classified as 91L. SHIPS indicates slow strengthening at first, but more signficant strengthening beginning around 48 hours. The BAM models want to bring this into the Caribbean.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
90/91 [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63139 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM

there is early track guidance now being run on the improving wave east of the islands, so now we have the two invests. philosophy on either is changed little.
90 has been holding down a t1.0 rating for two cycles. next cycle might be better as the satellite signature has improved... but this feature is at very low latitude. it's probably less than 100mi north of the panamanian coast. coriolis force is quite weak down there, so tropical cyclones usually have a hard go of it to develop. most of the track guidance nudges the system nw... by the weekend about half has it over nicaragua (after a modest development offshore), and the rest has it sitting up on the nw coast of nicaragua looking north. based on model agreement i'd go with this thing making tropical storm. not sure how inland if at all it will go, but best bet is that it runs over central america. slow mover, probably going to be some bad flooding down there. right now it has a concentrated area of convection, so it could be upgraded to a depression if banding features become apparent.
91 has a too weak rating, and no semblance of a surface low... but convection and the fanned appearance of clouds in a supportive outflow pattern have increased, and there's the sluggish south/fast north trade wind profile that often precedes development. idea that it will evolve along the lines of alpha is unchanged.
in about 3-4 days these two features will be in close proximity. the ukmet solution has the most pronounced version of this, though other models are suggestive.. but it looks like 90L will be clinging to the coast of nicaragua, while 91L will get handed off to a shortwave-spawned system off the east coast. how involved it becomes is questionable, but the globals suggest that it will turn up in the vicinity of jamaica/eastern cuba and recurve sharply. 90L is then shown in later model runs lingering near shore or onshore nicaragua... perhaps coming north sunday or monday if it survives.
feels bizarre to be saying it, but we could easily have beta and gamma before the week is out.
HF 1429z26october

worth adding that if both systems have developed by say, friday, there is a good chance they will binarily interact.. i.e. sort of tug at one another. this would probably keep 90L offshore, but is unlikely to prevent 91L from recurving. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:31 AM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 90/91 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63140 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:10 AM

Also looks like a disturbed area of weather flared up in the eastern Bahamas, apparently along the cold front, but that doesn't seem to be a favorable area for development righ now. Anything that did try to form there would likely move rather quickly out to sea.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: latest TWO [Re: Clark]
      #63141 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM

"can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well. "


--The use of the term nepotism (apologize for the spelling previously..) was intended for levity and it was hoped (though air apparent the motive was lost?) that it would be taken sardonically. Margie made a funny comment, so I thought I'd follow up with my own inimitable brand of cynical humor. BUT, seeing as the comment was taken as holy, I assume then that you were just being kind in notifying me that there is no nepotism involved in Florida? That may very well be true, however, anyone privy to the truths and cloaked schemes that are inherently integral and real about our culture, and always have been (who are we kidding) from public to private affairs, must be willing to conclude that if that is true in Florida, they are the only exception rather than the rule Now, it may also be true that the State Met is just who he is and has no connection to current administrations... Like I said, I didn't see the interview.

"Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma. "

Absolutely! I am on the fence with the track... As of 5pm I'd be real surprised if this wasn't classified as a depression because as the daylight was emerging over the cloud tops of this disturbance on visible imagery there was an undeniable, unmistakable and concerted twisting motion taking place. I don't believe the proximity to land is a huge detriment in this case. The closest adversely affective landmass are really the continent of S. America, because the Ismuth of Panama is surrounded on both sides by deep oceanic heat content and the land bridge its self is quite narrow and therefore offering little ability to modify pure marine based tropical air (There are some mountain there believe it or not, however) That being said, there is also an excited tendency for low-pressure in the general area of the central/western Caribbean, do to teleconnectors abroad. So, any slow mover would have a favorable environment for back-building convection.. This has been noted in the passed, where contributes to preventing circulation centers from moving inland because the circulation thus has the wherewithal to continuously reposition just off shores - prime candidate for that sort of behavior here. We'll see...

"Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with. "

--Right... I was actually speaking in deference to someone elseís assertion that the water was dramatically cooler, which I disagreed with.. In earlier post I mentioned that it was likely that condition was transient in nature; which is much along the lines of what you are intimating.

"Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season....All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time."

--Like I said...Barring seasonal fluxes, which is code for westerlies allowing.... However, I would caution, it is risky business to assume certain behavior based purely on passed performance... But you know this, I assume.

" I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns."

--That is actually true even for your August/September storms as they are translating to latitudes near New England.. You simply cannot get a powerful hurricane to turn the corner and come up the East Coast without gulping drier continental air into its backside, which almost immediately implies a horizontal thermal gradient and subsequent baroclinic genesis subtending S beneath the event... But it terms of calendar relativity...I always thought it possible - though almost rare to the point of never happening - to have seriously cold air and low and mid levels and a super-intense baroclinic field, with a very powerful U/A shortwave rounding the base of a meridianal trough expression, and still have a hurricane in the Bahamas ready to ingest into that... Imagine that - having a 1991 like super-union, but have it take place near the coast while H850mb thickness' are conducive to snow?! If something like that happened, it would have to be in December - perhaps better material for sci-fi but for a few minutes, Wilma looked interesting.

"Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October. "

--True.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63142 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:10 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



Think Beta is in the making.... just by looking at sat.... should be near TD status now!

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km Visible
Costa Rica GOES-East 2 km VIS

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63143 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:37 PM

Quote:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



Think Beta is in the making.... just by looking at sat.... should be near TD status now!

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km Visible
Costa Rica GOES-East 2 km VIS




yeah - but i'm a little less impressed with the "apparent" wnw motion that is equally as evident on sat. not sure if this is really connected with any larger scale steering controls; i see a possibility....

..it's a shallow system and therefore is still very susceptible to the background environmental field, which would tend to be ese to wnw in that area. should "beta" evolve quicker, however, it may slow down when it deepens for better ability to fend off some of these background environmental motions. ...there may also actually be perturbation in the synoptics surrounding the area that is causing this motion and it is therefore uncertain as to how long it would persists if that is the case. thing is, the 00Z GFDL takes it well over a 100kts in 72 hours, and then drives it inland to do what is likely a historic flood job. even if so, i think the faster it develops the better off it will be in this case - if you are an intensity enthusiast that is - for there is some suggestion in the global models that a ssw to nne steering field could be establishing in that area, which would mitigate a large longitudinal gain.

..and btw: i dissagree that it would be preclusively unlikely (if anyone is actually thinking that) for another upper end event to affect the SE U.S. this season. ...what i mean by 'upper end' is borderline cat 2/3... anyway, there is enough heat content in the Caribbean to spawn a notable system (not necessarily historic but strong nonetheless), and it is equally as conceivable with teleconnectors the way they are, that a semi-permanent conduit could set up shop from the Yucatan to off the NC Coast, being that there is a trough axis tending to situation near 85 W in the ensemble means. that may change way out in time, because i'm seeing a hints, frets and tendencies in some of the clusters for heights to lower over davis straight and greenland...that would tend to flip the nao more neutral if not positive for a time being and a good opportunity for mid-latitude blocking ridge/indian summer for the mid-atlantic and new england.....that is, should these hints and frets and tendencies be more than just computer enhance haluciations (those have gotten me in the past!) for the time being, however, i think that it is not uncommon to have such a conduit.. not only that..."if" you develop a system near to it but no "in" it, that conduit can actually aid in development by exciting outflow channels... we saw this rather classically with Wilma, in that she had an unbelievably powerful polarward outflow channel, which was established about the time she ended up locked in the entrance region of the trough that ultimately spawned the unrelated nor'easter... not only that, system caught up in these type of conduits (actually they are mwcb's - warm conveyor belts) will suffer minimal environmental shear because they are moving smartly along with the flow.

...lot's to consider....but, i'd say not only should the nw caribbean monitor, i think that is a hint georgraphically for florida and so forth as well...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 12:51 PM)


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wiley
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63144 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:52 PM

not necessarily historic but strong nonetheless

we're in the greek alphabet...isn't everything historic at this point??


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63145 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:34 PM

Report from NW Broward - Margate / Coral Springs / Deerfield:

Note to mods: I hope this is right place for this info... if not please redirect.

Basically a repeat of what NWBroward said - the front side of the eye wall (eastern side) was no big deal, some small trees came down as wind was blowing 60 with gusts to 80 mph I'd guess. Then the back side hit and YIKES, wind was steady out of the west at 80 and gusting to 100 or more. Eye was cloudy and breeze (40 mph gusts).

In general many trees down, minor roof damage, lots of screened patios/pool enclosures gone, most fences down. Damage varies, for example my brother's place in Deerfield is worst, as every single tree is down and I'm talking BIG old trees. In Oakland Park (2 miles west of the ocean) my buddies Florida Room had the sliding glass doors blow out and the roof peeled back! Personally my house is fine, we lost some roof tiles and all the trees in the backyard including three 30' Queen Palms are sitting at a 45 degree angle, thankfully they missed the house. I'm going to upload some pictures later.

After two days it has become apparent to me that the power is going to be out for a long time. So I just made the 2 hour drive from Broward to Highland County to reach my parents place in Lake Placid. The area around Lake O got hit hard too, however small pockets have power and some gas is available there if your willing to wait. Back home no such luck... power is out in 90% of the county (population 1 million!), maybe 1% of gas stations are open and those that are have 2 to 3 miles worth of traffic surrounding them. Traffic is a nightmare, no signals, no gas, people just driving aimless about looking for gas, it was dangerous so we got out. Long lines for water and ice are relief stations, very few officals around, mostly just local cops trying to keep order and direct traffic. Biggest problem is lack of gas for generators, some grocery stores are open selling no perisables, it's not that bad provided you have plenty of gas to cover the large distances between open stores. With the lack of gas driving anywhere is a big risk since there could be none by the time you arrive.

Major damage to the power grid in the tri-county area, I live 2 blocks from an FLP substation and there is twisted metal and broken lines. Rough estimated is 4 weeks for power to come in most areas but could be as many as 6 weeks in remote sections. Power is back on in Miami Beach and MIA is funcational, but FTL and Port Everglades are not. I figure I'll be up here Lake Placid for atleast a week, maybe two. Nothing to do back home anyway, no power at work for either me or the wife.

FYI - If your trying to reach family in Dade, Broward or Palm Beach I can tell you the following: I'm sure they are fine, no structual damage to speak of really - sure some sections of roof came off, moblie homes were tossed about but your average apartment, condo or single family building is OK. Some cars got crushed by trees. However the phones are very messed up, you never know when or if they are going to work. All day Monday after the storm we had land lines, but as of Tuesday AM they went down. Cell phones are very iffy, best bet is text messages. I can only get in touch with my brother via text messages and he only lives 7 miles from me! Communication is near impossible, I went to work and wrote a note that got tapped to the bosses office door, all attempts to contact him via cell phone have failed (he live in northern Palm Beach BTW).

Thank god the weather cooled off, most dramatic change in weather I have ever experienced. I'll try to post pictures, just sorting thru the various sites and email right now. Sorry for any spelling mistakes, typing pretty fast here.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63146 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM

NHC has moved floater1 to 90L, and floater2 to 91L.

While there is clear rotation and good outflow, for 90L on the visual sat images I think some of what looks to be rotation on the east, flowing to the north, is actually convection being blown off by shear.

The shear analysis indicates more favorable outflow than yesterday, and that does appear to be true, but I'm not convinced that what i am seeing on sat is the shear pattern on the analysis. It seems like at the moment, there is a little more shear than identified...that 20kt shear actually looks to be a little more to the west than indicated (the shear analysis hasn't always told the correct story this year). But overall it's in an area of lower shear, relative to other areas of the Carib, and there is warm water in the forecasted direction of drift, and we have all seen how important outflow is this season. It is forecast likely to turn west instead of heading due N, and that's good because north of 15N there is still a lot of warm water left in the Caribbean, just north of the track taken by Wilma, all the way from Cayman to just SW of Cuba's western tip.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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