Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 22 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3197 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida
      #63069 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:46 AM

South Florida took a severe beating, many high rise buildings in Ft. Lauderdale and some in Miami have lost windows. Some structure failures, and in general it's a big mess down there.

All the major Airports in south Florida are closed, and most of Palm Beach, Broward, Dade are without power and many places are without running water.

The extent of all the damage in South Florida is not yet known.

Alpha has disappeared, mainly merging with Wilma. And there is no other activity in the Tropics that looks like it could develop for the next several days with the notable exception of an area in the extreme Southwestern Caribbean Sea.


Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)
Level 3 Radar Recording of Wilma


Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view Wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

90L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

91L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #63070 - Tue Oct 25 2005 11:43 AM

Hi.. i am at work right now.... somehow my office building manage to have electricity... (go figure )

Wilma was more than i thought she would be for us in Southern Dade County.... not that i wasn't prepared, just that i hadn't experienced anything like that since Andrew. I live near country walk and the front side of the storm came through around 7 am... my hurricane shutters peeled off and the windows started flexing ... It was me and my grandma and I thought the windows were not going to make it... we huddled in what i call my safe room (a powder room with no windows) Everything was fine.. lost couple of barrel tiles on the roof (need a roofer pm me ) and our fence is down, along with all our neighbors.

There are 18 out of 2600 working street lights here in Dade County, needless to say driving is a mess. There is a curfew in effect from 8 pm - 6 am... until further notice.

I work on Brickell and i see many building with windows blown out.. Brickell Avenue is under water and part of it is closed. Gas is very hard to find. 95% of the county is currently without electricity.


I want to say thank you to the moderators and posters of this board who kept me sane until i lost power. Special thank you to Danny who encouraged me to put the shutters up, although many of them came down....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: trinibaje]
      #63071 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:01 PM

I went to Melbourne to stop by my wife's office and I took 95 North when doing so. There were two noteable caravans I saw. One was a few dozen FHP cruisers heading south, another was approximately 40 FPL (and assorted other companies) trucks heading south. The calvary is coming for points impacted by Wilma and the recovery will be in full force.

May power be restored soon to those without.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63072 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 PM

From the latest TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63073 - Tue Oct 25 2005 12:50 PM

Quote:

From the latest TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.




...this is interesting because several of the operational global models have been offering synoptics that would teleconnect to a weakness in that area for several runs now.. CMC for example and the NOGAPS also goes ahead an closes off a couple of isobars.

...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.

Actually, if you know of any that would be helpful.. gee - it almost seems like there's a conspiracy to keep the information under wraps, because i've found 5 potential sites and they all hang when trying to load them - so no can do... gimme a break with those odds! either that, or i just have some extraordinarily bad luck..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Oct 25 2005 12:59 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63074 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:30 PM

Those sites could all use the same data source and that data source could be down as well. Easier explanation than a conspiracy with far less steps required

Of course, I can't find any either...

But I haven't looked too hard as I've been trying to catch up on the lost productivity from Wilma.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63075 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:46 PM

This post is for FtlaudBob, a frequent vistor to this site, who was distraught about Playa del Carmen. Apparently, he lived there for a number of years. This info. I hope will provide him with some level of comfort.


Central Playa del Carmen has electricity and people are making very good
progress in cleaning up Wilma's mess. I estimate that at least 50% of
businesses are open today and that most of the rest will open tomorrow.

In a few days there will probably be few obvious traces of our two-day ordeal -
everything just seems much 'open' due to the stripping of vegetation (which
grows back amazingly quickly in this area)

Rohan Barnett

Ah Cacao Chocolate Cafe
5a Av. y Constituyentes
http://www.ahcacao.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63076 - Tue Oct 25 2005 01:47 PM

Typhoon Tip:

All the sites I use for SSTs are up. Here they are:

Navy: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

Rutgers (does not have the Carribean): http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&nothumbs=0

---

P.S. - take a look at this article (especially the 2nd page): http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9767275/

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63079 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:12 PM

Also http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ has one near the top.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63080 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:22 PM

Quote:


...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.
Quote:



Water Temps at Clearwater dropped big-time to 72° and I'm sure it will be much lower after today. Air temps right now where I live are in the low 60's.

I would expect water temps will drop to the 60's by tomorrow. I seriously doubt they will be able to support any tropical system in the eastern gulf.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: latest TWO [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #63081 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:24 PM

the twd has something to say about the sw carib feature:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

i was thinking this would take a couple or few days to consolidate into a tropical system. this time of year in that part of the basin they tend to be broad, move slowly, and come together slowly. it may come up a little faster than expected. this thing is going to move slowly... look i'm getting from the globals and ensembles is that it may start coming up early next week.. and perhaps threaten cuba and maybe the southern end of florida in the first few days of november.
there's another low-amplitude wave approaching from the east... in about two days it should be under quite favorable upper-air conditons. take a look at the 12Z ukmet, because i think that's more or less what it's going to do. not too dissimilar from alpha, really.
that vibe floating around the media about Wilma being the end of the season is looking quite uncertain today.

if you're wondering about the thing further east, it gets a lesser mention as well:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT HAS
CONSIDERABLY WLY SHEAR INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER UPPER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EFFECTS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
49W-55W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-57W.

HF 1824z25october

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63082 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM

One wonders if this season will ever end. I know we are in an active cycle of hurricanes that scientists think last at least a
couple of decades but someone told me the next two years after this one are supposed to be especially active. Is there any
scientific evidence to support that? Also, have there been very many seasons with three Cat 5 on record? What is amazing
is Wilma is 1, Rita is 4, and Katrina is 6 for lowest pressure on record and they all occurred this year. What are the odds
of that? Here's hoping Florida gets everything up and running very soon. We here in Southeast Texas are wishing the best for
ya'll.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: latest TWO [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #63083 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:32 PM

ssts off tampa are in the mid 70s,,sarasota near 77 Clearwater 76 Cedar key 74... They were about 4 dg warmer before the front went thru....I expect them to drop another 2-3 dg over the next 2-3 days then level off over the weekend then after the next big trough comes thru next week,,drop below 70......for now, expect water temps to go down to the low 70s by the weekend.

Anything that does develop in the Carribean will move slowly at first due to the strong ridge over the eastern U.S. late this week....then the high moves off the coast.. Another big trough digs down and again any system that is down there will move N then NE....Way too early to tell exact path.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: tpratch]
      #63084 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:35 PM

Quote:

Those sites could all use the same data source and that data source could be down as well. Easier explanation than a conspiracy with far less steps required

Of course, I can't find any either...

But I haven't looked too hard as I've been trying to catch up on the lost productivity from Wilma.




yeah...dry humor there..sorry


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63085 - Tue Oct 25 2005 02:49 PM

Curious about the discussion on SSTs. My impression, at least for the Atlantic, is that the temps don't move very quickly, but several posters have said that the temps in the Gulf will be cooled off enough from this front to make any US action likely. Does the Gulf cool off that quickly?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63086 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:02 PM

um...I have lived in Florida my whole life and I don't reacall temps dropping that fast from one front. But, hell, what do I know.

I just remember being able to swim in the GOM even into January and usually that was the cut off becuase it was too chilly.

Has Ft Laud Bob posted? Just wondering how he made out - send me a PM if you can Bob. I have been thinking of you the past few days.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Katie]
      #63087 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM

The HPC picks up the Carribean low, but shows very slow movement:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63088 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:05 PM

Quote:

Typhoon Tip:

All the sites I use for SSTs are up. Here they are:

Navy: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

Rutgers (does not have the Carribean): http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&nothumbs=0

---

P.S. - take a look at this article (especially the 2nd page): http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9767275/




Thanks for sites! Yeah...i'm familiar with the controversies over the rating system....a similar debate erupted after the 312mph sustained vortex velocity wasmeasured in the 1999 Missouri tornado outbreak... Not sure it's ever gonna fly, however, because at the end of the day, we gotta ask our selves: what difference does it really make? 180mph winds and 200mph winds are so deep into the ends of catastrophe that it becomes splitting hairs defining whether something is merely obliterated versus denuded off the face of the planet - either way...no difference. I guess the debate gets more heated, however, as building technologies evolve to the point where they are theoretically designed to withstand the heavier assaults; in which case, a category 6 might have more meaning... But, until that time, anything over a 155mph sustained is for the most part going to get you to the same result: FUBAR!
just my opionion but i don't think the next category should be "6" per say...it should say "Maximum", because, believe it or not, there is a theoretical limitation to the amount of intensity a hurricane can have for terran based physics - those equations that must incorporate everthing from gravitation constants, latent heat availability and pressure dicontinuities (which ultimately give rise to differential advection patterns and even U/A mechanics such as anticyclonics for that matter...). There is an upper theoretical limit.... The trouble is, that limit is different for every environment so the Maximum category is more at universally intended; such as, a hurricane will never have winds of "300mph on Earth because it is physically impossible"... So for all plausibilities included, Maximum means anything that is virtually stronger than a category 5 because that category certainly approaches theoretical limitations to begin with. Maximum has a usefulness in the sense that it informs people that it is at the theoretical limitation of how awesome it can be....?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63089 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:06 PM

The 12Z GFS keeps strong westerlies (> 50 kts) at 250mb throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week, with another big trough forecast to dig down the eastern U.S. in 7-8 days. If that forecast of the synoptic pattern verifies, then anything that forms and tries to move north would rather quickly be shunted off to the NE away from the U.S., or else likely be signficantly sheared as it approaches the U.S. Obviously, that is still a ways off, so the pattern could end up being somewhat different.

The trend seems to be for the weather pattern to become hostile for any tropical system that tries to approach the U.S. in the near future, but any strong storm that might form in the Caribbean would still be a concern, even if it would be likely to reach the U.S. in a weakened state.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #63090 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:10 PM

Quote:

Quote:


...i'm interested in the SST processing in the area. my usual source for graphics involving upper oceanic heat content seems to be down so i'm currenly attempting to find an alternate source. anyway, interesting to know what the most intense hurricane in atlantic basin history may have done to the available heat content in that area as that area also has some of the deepest thermoclines on the planet. my immediate hunch is there is still plenty left beneath the lat of the channel.. the gulf...man, that's gotta be cooling off by now.
Quote:



Water Temps at Clearwater dropped big-time to 72° and I'm sure it will be much lower after today. Air temps right now where I live are in the low 60's.

I would expect water temps will drop to the 60's by tomorrow. I seriously doubt they will be able to support any tropical system in the eastern gulf.




Actually, the close up IR imagery, just as Wilma was leaving the Peninsula yesterday, the cooler waters N of the Keys.. In fact, the Keys were essentially demarcating substantially colder water from the Straights waters... It was interesting to see the sudden differential in lieu of one event... That's what made me wonder about the other areas..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63091 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:14 PM

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63092 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM

Quote:

Curious about the discussion on SSTs. My impression, at least for the Atlantic, is that the temps don't move very quickly, but several posters have said that the temps in the Gulf will be cooled off enough from this front to make any US action likely. Does the Gulf cool off that quickly?




Those "...any US likely" claims are very risky - by the way - and cannot be made with much scientific certainty. Let me just make a supposition:
...We took note of how fast Wilma accelerated once she was caught up in the steering field of a large scale trough... It is NOT a huge leap of imagination that a TC could get firing in the still heat potentail laden Caribbean and then get accelerated N at such translational speed as to be insufficient timing wise for cooler waters to have an impact.

Another clue to the riskiness of making such an assertion: Nova Scotia. For 150-200naut miles S of the Nova Scotia SST's in the warmest ocean period of the year rarely eclipse the mid 50s. That's some 20 degrees colder than the coldest water in the area of the eastern Gulf at this time in lieu of Wilma. Nova Scotia was struck by a category 2 hurricane as recent as 2004.

The key here is the translational speed... There is a noted lag time for TC's and their proximities to warm waters and their ability to make use of that fuel source. This not a fix time-value, because other parameters have an influence; such, upper air mechanics... But, in general, there is a time dependency... If a hurricane developes over a warm environment, particularly if it gets strong and then is yanked at ludicrous speed like Wilma was into a colder environment, the hurricane can get hundreds of miles before losing tropical characteristics/momentum in some extreme cases.

Believe me, if Nova Scotia can get a cat 2 up there, and New England can get a category 3 (several times including 1938), 75F SST's in the Gulf will be of minor detriment.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Cindi]
      #63093 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:30 PM

Quote:

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.




Yah, I gotta tell yeah...I wouldn't hold your breath because you may be holding it too long to sustain life the way this year's season is going... That's not just a perfunctory comment either... There are signs already that something is lurking in the western Caribbean and the water temperatures (save the local affects of Wilma on the easter Gulf, which may be transient to begin with...) are still anomalously warm everywhere... If you got a troposphere that favors the genesis of these things, you don't want warmer than normal SST's to extend your threat envelope - now do yah.. Anyway, it's likely a Beta or more will take place and btw, I've noted a 2 week periodicity all season ( average - so don't chop my head off!) so even if nothing happens right away here...the longer term frequency of the year "might" suggest at least one more active pattern - seasonal flux and allowing that to happen, notwithstanding...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63094 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:14 PM

WRN CARIBBEAN...
ALL THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ALL THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS...FORM A TROP
CYC IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARND 24 HRS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH SPAWNED T.S. ALPHA AND A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE INCREASINGLY-NONTROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS
WILMA. MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO THE NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK...AND A SFC HIGH
TO ITS NORTH LIMITS MOTION IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT THE MDLS TEND TO DVLP THESE SYS ROUGHLY A DAY TOO FAST PER
COORDINATION W/TPC...BUT EITHER WAY IT IS LOOKING LIKE A CYCLONE
WILL BE LURKING OFFSHORE CNTRL AMERICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM TPC/NHC AND
LATER DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.

ROTH/CLARK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63095 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:16 PM

RC -- read that article and it really burns me up. There are many good reasons to overhaul the current cat system, but creating a cat 6 rating is not one of them!

It is a warning system.

Given the lack of response even to mandatory evacs, and the possible politics involved in issuing one (i.e. NOLA, not issuing one until the last minute, to avoid legal repercussions from not being able to evac those who could not get out on their own, waiting to the point where all they had time left for, was to substitute local shelters instead), the main impetus in revising the cat system should be to create warnings that would motivate people to leave, without being so complex it would confuse them. If the reason would be to provide categorization for mets, that should be separate from trying to devise a good warning system.

Right now I think the next big step that everybody is ready for is to separate wind and surge warnings, and it may also help to focus more on the damage descriptions of each cat level rather than just talk about a number.

Look at Key West. If they'd gotten five more feet of surge, a lot of people would have drowned right in the middle of their party. It might help a lot next time if the mayor stands on Duvall St. and holds up his arm and says, "At 10pm water will be up to here, and by the way the wind will be over 100mph at that time." There must be something that would motivate people. Someone ought to go out and talk to the survivors and ask them what that would be. I think they would get a lot of responses like, "Well I didn't know it was going to be this bad." Then if you sat down with every one of those people and backtracked over the warnings that had been put out, they would find out that the warnings did in fact say that it could be that bad. So what is the language that you use to get across to everyone?

Of course language probably isn't the problem most of the time; there are a lot of people who would have many rationalizations which all add up to not wanting to deal with evacuating (assuming they have the money to evacuate). But I think language might help a lot, in certain cases, because many of the people who died on the MS Gulf Coast in their own homes were older people, who simply may not have understood (you can count my own mother in this category).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63096 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:25 PM

Quote:

.....There must be something that would motivate people. Someone ought to go out and talk to the survivors and ask them what that would be.....




Unfortunately, Margie, you just can't penetrate some poeple's minds with that kind of straight forward, black and white logic. They shall remain, irretrievably susceptible to hazard and risk.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Oct 25 2005 04:27 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63097 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:41 PM

THAT ALL SHE WROTE...... the strongest hurricane ever is gone!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...41.7 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON Wilma FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
IN WASHINGTON D. C. UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND AWIPS HEADER
HSFAT1.
FORECASTER BEVEN

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63098 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:45 PM

Also...perhaps a little off-topic, but has anybody noticed the state of FL might be looking for a new met?

I'm referring to the first FL press conference from a couple of days ago. The state met still has that 12-going-on-20 hey-I-can-do-the-job-Dad look. Did anyone notice how Bush rolled his eyes, on camera, when the guy started his speech and nervously said "Katrina" instead of "Wilma?" Perhaps this fellow is some nephew they had to hire. Anyway I noticed he was absent from following press conferences, where Bush read all the warning material himself.

Also...since you can count the minutes I've watched G. Bush on TV in the past 10 years on the fingers of one hand, this was the first time I'd even seen Gov. Bush. He seemed like more of a workhorse type rather than a dilettante. I was impressed with the way he read the briefing first in English, then in Spanish, and also had a signer as well, and was precise, prepared, thorough, and sensible. Not only that, it is apparent that FL really does have their act tog as far as hurricane prep, more than any other state. Yikes, he seemed almost...cool.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63099 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:50 PM

Does anyone else get irritated when the media (and therefore everyone who doesn't know better) immediately cries GLOBAL WARMING after any kind of anomalous climate event occurs? It's far too early to know whether global warming is actually have an effect on hurricanes, especially when we have a known cycle that explains the recent activity? I'm in no way downplaying global warming- I just want to avoid wanton conclusions.

Three Cat 5s in a season? GLOBAL WARMING! 13 inches of rain in Rhode Island? GLOBAL WARMING! Can't find your car keys? GLOBAL WARMING!


Err... anyway... I contacted my aunt in Miami yesterday and she said it was pretty bad. She would have taken some significant damage if she hadn't put up her shutters. The worst thing is she lost her giant avocado tree


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Rating storms [Re: Margie]
      #63100 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:51 PM

What I'd do to rate the systems is have a catagory system set up, from 0 through 5, each for wind speed, storm surge, and rain fall, (you can include tornado threat as well, but that would be a bit harder to judge)

Each catagory would have it's own rating system:
wind:
0 - Under 74MPH (Tropical Storm)
1 - 5 standard Catagories, I suppose you could
include Extreme for anything above 175MPH

Storm Surge:
0 - Minimal storm surge under 3 feet
1 - Minor storm surge 3 - 5 feet
2 - Moderate 6 - 9 feet
3 - Significant 10 - 15 feet
4 - Strong 16 - 20 feet
5 - Major 21 - 30 feet
Extreme - 30+ feet

Rainfall:
0 - under 1" expected
1 - 1 - 2"
2 - 2 - 4"
3 - 5 - 8"
4 - 9 - 12"
5 - 12 - 18"
Extreme - Over 18"

you can then modify slightly for coastal effects and other variables to come to an expected storm effect. Perhaps making a general numbering system for the public.

a slow moving tropical storm can have devastating consequences with rainfall...

a former cat 5 storm can have incredible storm surge even after it weakens wind wise.

a winding up storm can bring incredible wind destruction even on the otherside of the coast, and not have that storm surge effect.

give the public information, just don't overwhelm them with it.

I'll post more when I get to a computer that doesn't make me feel like i'm on a 300 baud modem LOL

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63101 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:54 PM

I read a blog on Wunderground and the guy said that even though hurricane season is not yet over, he thinks it is for the U.S. He said he would expect a trop storm from that area in the SW Caribbean, but he doesn't think it will effect the US mainland. He said the cooler temps should cool the waters and added shear should defy development. How true is this? Can this new disturbance in the Caribbean threaten Fla or anywhere else in the US?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63102 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:58 PM

Quote:

THAT ALL SHE WROTE...... the strongest hurricane ever is gone!


Yeah and I bet that no one is more relieved to see her go than NHC TPC. Does it seem to you that Wilma just wore us all out, or is it the cumulative effect of the season?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Rating storms [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63103 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:01 PM

You're so right, how could I have forgotten the terrible consequences of Cat 1 Stan. A hurricane doesn't even have to make landfall to result in severe rain; Stan's effects were felt for days before.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63105 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:23 PM

"12-going-on-20 hey-I-can-do-the-job-Dad look." ....That's funny!
Yeah....a lot of nepatism in the govermental ranks these days....(not to mention money - something we could all be terrified about...) But, I've been told not to go over political lines on this ...I didn't see the broadcast anyway so I'll take your word for it..

Since Katrina, Rita, Wilma and whoever I'm forgetting all have something to do with this though, I will say that "the government", in general, took a lot of heat from people among their own municipalties (like, NWS and NHC and the myriad of local study groups that have been warning of doom for 40 years!) , as well as from the private sector from folks like us, because of this unheeded warning theory. Frankly, I think the hush-hush no-tell truth is that much of that falls on the locals, but that just flies in the face of those who need to scape-goat to outsource the ignomony of their own negligences. For this calamity and other such horrors are in reality because a) it is a hypocrasy to blame the goverment when we live in a cultur that tends to want limited government in private affairs; and b) the truth is, there is no state of preparedness for some storms because their just uniquely qualified to denude manmade artifices from existence.

It's all messy in the blame game and probably....not really worth it.

The bottom line is....we've got huge population districts parked up against a 90F proving ground for tropical tempests, all around the deep south... In fact, the Del Marva isn't even off the hook for that matter, nor is Bar Harbor in Maine! But, this great nation has allowed these areas to thrive too long without adequate protection and now we pay the price - and I think we need to do so in unity among all ranks because it is as much an issue on top as it is in the private sector.

But...I know you didn't ask for my opinion in the matter... I just wanted to say so because we are in such a climate studied favored era for huge storm frequencies, one that looks like it will recur for a number of years to come, so...we'd better get our priorities straight as a culture and stop bickering - ay?

Anyway, watching the Caribbean!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: damejune2]
      #63106 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:28 PM

Quote:

I read a blog on Wunderground and the guy said that even though hurricane season is not yet over, he thinks it is for the U.S. He said he would expect a trop storm from that area in the SW Caribbean, but he doesn't think it will effect the US mainland. He said the cooler temps should cool the waters and added shear should defy development. How true is this? Can this new disturbance in the Caribbean threaten Fla or anywhere else in the US?




Waters are cooling, but are still sufficiently warm to support a fairly strong tropical system, especially one coming up from the Caribbean. Based on current model forecasts and also climatology, upper-level winds will not be favorable for anything that tries to affect the U.S. in the near future, but we'll have to see how the upper-level pattern evolves with respect to the next possible system.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #63107 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:30 PM

Good evening from Naples! Our power was restored last night, probably because we are on the same line as the high schol that was the special needs shelter for Collier County. Cable modem came back today. Most of Collier County is still without power, but FPL is working on it. Traffic is difficult - many of the traffic lights are just plain gone. Most drivers are following the rules, a first for Naples. We had trees down and some damage to the lanai cage, so we were very fortunate. A couple of my co-workers lost their roofs. The back side of the storm was wicked. I didn't think the wind would ever stop, but it did.

Thanks for all of your info early Monday morning. I stayed with it until we lost power.

Karen


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63109 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:46 PM

Re: Margie's observations on Jeb's press conference. You are correct - Florida has their act together, both at the state and local level. Then again, they should because they have had a lot of practice.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: KC]
      #63110 - Tue Oct 25 2005 06:12 PM

Margie - yes, Florida does have their act together. And I realized that even before Katrina. With Charley. There was a ton of communication with in the local and state agencies. I happen to think that Jeb is the Best Gov. we could have had during these past few years. I think he knows how to handle it and gets the job done. And I know it doesn't take just one person to get the job done, but his team - PERFECT.

If he were to ever run for Pres, I would totally vote for him (so as long as I agreed with other areas of his platform) but, he knows how to handle these types of situations.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Picking up pieces [Re: Katie]
      #63111 - Tue Oct 25 2005 06:43 PM

Just for a random heads up, a friend of mine just checked in briefly from coral springs. It seems the area looks pretty bad over there. her description of her neighborhoods was 'it looks like a bomb went off.' I don't know if she was in the hardest hit area, but the word they heard was 4 weeks to get back power. She also said the cooler weather was a wonderful blessing, because it's keeping them from roasting at least. She's also not sure how long it will take for businesses to reopen simply because so many of them have taken storm damage and are under curfew as well. She was only able to check in briefly, as she was on a cell phone and trying to conserve the phone for emergencies.

<minor rant>
I really wish the news media would stop with the 'ooh, look the first reports in are of minor damage', and realize that the hardest hit areas will take days to check in. You would have thought they would have learned a hard lesson from Katrina, but I suppose not.
</minor rant>

Anyway, the good news is she's safe and in one piece, but it's still a very rough situation over there, certainly not a Katrina class event, but it's also not something that can be trivalized or ignored.

Anyway, hopefully other people are safe and sound. And if there is anything we can do to help, with whatever deep pockets we have, lets do it.

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
New Systems? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63112 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM

There are Two Disturbed areas in the Atlanitic Right now One is the thing in the South Western Carrib and Looks like it could devlop but my have trouble with the land next to it and there is the tropical wave off the lesser antillies that could devlop later in the week or next week. Does any Met got anything on these ones?

Edited by NONAME (Tue Oct 25 2005 08:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63113 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM

Well, we arrived home in Cape Coral from the Orlando area late this morning. Overall impression was that Wilma, at least for Cape Coral, didn't pack as high winds as Charley, although Wilma's winds lasted longer. No way near as much tree, sign, shrub or structural damage, but Charley may have done the first "pruning" last year. The majority of the LCEC (Lee County Electric Coop) customers on the Cape have power back, and things are basically back to normal. Even had the mail delivered today. FPL power is coming back on gradually in Fort Myers. Like the governor, LCEC has its act together for these situations as does Lee County and the city of Cape Coral. My home is fine except for some minor shrub and tree damage and a minor water incursion caused when Wilma's driving rain entered an air vent at a 180 degree angle, wet the insulation which in turn penetrated the ceiling onto a bedroom dresser. We were very fortunate once again. As Margie and others commented, Florida is the most prepared state in terms of preparing for and responding to a natural disaster, and governor Jeb, in my opinion, is a superb leader. BTW, his wife is Spanish and he's fluent in Spanish which a real plus with the large Hispanic population we have in Florida. In stressful times, it's really comforting to know the state's prepared. Just finish by saying it's disconcerting to see another possible system in the Caribbean, especially after having spent the last 7 hours or so unpacking, rehanging pictures, removing storm panels, etc. Really don't want to have to go through the exercise again this season, but we'll have to see what happens. Note to mods: if this is too off topic, okay to send it to the happy hunting ground.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Picking up pieces [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63114 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:42 PM

Ok, just read through the latest TWD. Looks like they think the SW Carribean wave is likely to develop into something. TWO also mentions this system. Looking through them models, GFS take this system into central America before it gets too much time to development. Ukmet and NOGAPS keep this system barely moving. CMC heads the system north toward Cuba. All of them keep it moving too slowly to really have a guess about where it might go.

There is also a western Atlantic wave that has the potential for development talked about in the TWD, but it hasn't been mentioned on the TWO yet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63115 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM

Much as Fl May have preparation for storms in order -- there still is a lot to be improved
Some examples

With Frances & Jeanne our power was out for about 6 days each and there has been no concerted effort to get the power companies to improve infrastructure to make it more storm proof. If poles blow over, new ones go up and they raise our rates instead of working with more underground lines etc. In fact when they ran low on cash Florida Power discontinued their tree trimming program to keep branches away from lines.

Gasoline shortages are universal particularly when evacuation orders are sent out and when Port Everglades closes no fuel can get in for the majority of the state -- when the power is out , the last thing you want to hear is no fuel for the generator

Shelters have also had problems here -- though not on the scale of Superdome. These have included roofs blowing off flooding and inadequate supplies

Finally and I think most importantly despite changes in the building codes we are still building like crazy in the highest risk areas. Waterfront condos are nice but as we saw in Miami even Cat 2-3 storms have signif higher winds a few stories up. Look at the experience of those in Pensacola where thousands of homes are on flat sandy barrier islands that washed over with Dennis and Ivan. And there are plenty of homes going up in low lying flood zones everywhere -- we may not be below sea level, but even 5-6 feet of surge with rain on top puts homes underwater. So from a government standpoint some rethinking needs to be done about how to manage these issues and how to pay the escalating bills if we don't.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63116 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:54 PM

Glad to hear you are back and not too much damage. Are most of Florida's lines for electricity underground? Rita knocked
so many trees and poles down here. It was a mess but our electric company did an outstanding job, working round the clock.
How soon will everyone have power back in Florida?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63117 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:05 PM

In our area which is Ft. Pierce, about 45 miles north of Wast Palm Beach, it's all pretty much above ground electricity. We have a light pole/transformer next to our house. The power finally came back here (we have local utilties, rather than FPL), but the latest news says that some parts may be out for 4 weeks or so. 6 million without power as of this morning.

We didn't get much damage here (none to the house, except for the very corner of the roof hangover). I'm a bit suspicious that a tornado may have passed through our yard as there is a swatch of heavy foliage/fence damage that doesn't seem to match the rest of the street. We heard a couple noises that may have been that, but not quite sure. Appreciate once again the advice on here on what to expect. It wasn't that scary really, not as much as I thought, but we were on the north side which probably didn't get the winds as much as the south did.

Some places were closed, but it looks like for the most part it was business as usual for Wal-Mart, the banks, etc, much different scenario than after Frances/Jeanne.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #63118 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:11 PM

There have got to be a lot of mini-tornadoes with these storms because you see so much of that, some damage and then
a whole bunch of it concentrated in a small area. That makes sense it would take a month to get electricity to some areas in Florida.
That is how long it has taken here.

So, is this new system going to develop and become Beta?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #63119 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:12 PM

The system in the Caribbean is now classified as 90L. They did a test SHIPS run, which shows only modest development before the BAM models take it into Central America:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63120 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:26 PM

90L initial graphic plots are up on South Florida Water Management site.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NWBroward
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: latest TWO [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63121 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:28 PM Attachment (440 downloads)

I was on the IRC channel during the storm until about 20 mins after the eye. I was pretty encouraged with the minor damage we took from the first eye wall (winds from the South), but the second eye wall (winds from the West) slaughtered us. Trees that were down actually lifted up and over to fall down the other way. We lost power (still gone of course), phones, and everything else. Damage is pretty bad down there. It's all relative I guess .. since it's nowhere near Katrina damage .. but for us it's awful.

I packed up the family a few hours after the storm (when I first started hearing rumors that it would be a week or so without power) and headed North. Now we're in "The Happiest Place On Earth™" and the kids coudln't be happier. The adults however .. we could be happier.

Hope everyone is well.

NWBroward (Coral Springs, FL)

PS: Attachment shows a pic with the front of my house inside the eye, and after the storm. Note the direction of the fallen tree.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63122 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:30 PM

Our local officials did an excellent job of getting people to evacuate. The people in this area knew
the risk of staying and also knew what it might be like after the storm (no electricty, no water, HEAT, no
services). We had about a 90% evacuation rate and it was
a good thing because we had significant damage from Rita and sweltering heat after the storm with no electricity.
There were hardly any services in the city after the storm because damage was extensive. I think by most people
being out of the city it made the job of getting things up and running again easier. People came back into the city gradually.
Yes, there were problems (FEMA's slow response was one) but overall Jefferson County did a good job in responding to this disaster.
Also, families were able to apply to FEMA for money to help cover evacuation expenses. Maybe if people knew that there would be
help in covering those expenses they would be more willing to leave. As for changing the system of classifying these storms, the
one in place is fine. It it the job of the local officials to make sure people get out of harm's way and to make
sure people understand how important it is to leave.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: NWBroward]
      #63123 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:35 PM

If you have storm damage, well, it is awful. And being without electricity, well, that's pretty awful too. My prayers are with
you all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63124 - Tue Oct 25 2005 09:46 PM

I agree there is prob not a lot of benefit to changing the current storm ranking system -- Those of us that frequent this website may be sophisticted enough to care that a faster moving storm amplifies the wind speed of the R forward quadrant in the N hemisphere and that there is less total rainfall with quicker transit. But to the public in general, some authority has to determine the safest actions -- evacuations, shelters, etc and try to provide relief afterwards. More complicated will likely mean only more of the population will not understand.

No matter what warnings are in place there is always a significant group that has an excuse to ignore warnings and recommendations - Guarding the property, don't believe the mets or gov't officials, been through it before and had no problem etc, etc, etc. For those I can't imagine any more sophisticated warning system will be helpful -- they will ignore it anyway.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63125 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM

My experience with hurricanes has been that most of the damage is not as spectacular as the press would like -- although some areas hit by tornadic winds or storm surge are flattened, the predominant issue is water damage and not by flooding, but wind driven rain -- Your home is designed to keep water out when it comes from the top and is pretty good in that regard usually -- but take even tropical storm force winds with rain and you are attacked sideways-- water leaks in through windows ( those little troughs at the bottom are no match for wind of hurricane speed -- the water is pushed through the bottom of the sill up and over the barriers and in). The same is true of doors, skylights, air conditioning vents, chimneys --places you wouldn't dream of cuz they are only tested when Charley, Frances, Jeanne or Wilma comes calling

The fun part is each attacks at a different angle and finds differnet cracks to penetrate your fortress. Once inside the water ruins homes -- particularly if the power is out --you can't dry things out before the mold attacks. And none of this is necessarily visible from the outside. Many homes locally have had to be gutted because of relatively minor leaks

I have one friend whose entire front wall was ruined not because of any visible leak, but because Frances battered his brick front home for 3 days and blew water through the masonry itself into the wooden/plaster interior. So you gotta even seal your bricks

Anyone want to move to Fl now -- got insects you wouldn't believe too


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: latest TWO [Re: Cindi]
      #63126 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:02 PM

Quote:

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.




Amen Cindy.....AMEN !!!!

To all the members in S. Florida who will catch up on the forum when you get your power back on, I hope your damage was minimal. I know how tough it can be without electrical power for days on end.
I was reading about the flooding and damage in Key West. I think Wilma finally did what other storms
could not, that being make Key Westers sit up and take notice of the power of the wind and water.
Glad it's over, hoping for a quick recovery to all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 80
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: latest TWO [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #63127 - Tue Oct 25 2005 10:54 PM

I don't hear the fat lady yet and it's been a long year-- don't forget those noreaster's are yet to come. God bless and good luck to all.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: latest TWO [Re: collegemom]
      #63128 - Tue Oct 25 2005 11:12 PM

WE HAVE POWER!!!

Now thats out of the way, we just got our power back and feeling extremely thankful.
THANK YOU FPL! From what I've seen here in Port Saint Lucie, the back side of this storm was definately the worst for us. We lost our wood fence (so did almost everyone else) and most of our trees. We personally had more damage to "our" property from Wilma than last year's storms. But most importantly we are all ok.

About half of the windows at the school I teach at are blown out, so I don't see school beginning this week, and possibly next week.

Thank you all for keeping us informed and entertained throughout the storm!
Off to clean my fridge!

Malachi


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #63129 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:35 AM

I am decompressing tonight. For the first time in weeks and weeks (I think since early August) I turned on the TV to something other than CNN or TWC (my fav movie of all time was on, "Notorious"), and I thought, thank goodness Wilma is done. It was nice to relax.

And then I felt just awful. Why are we tracking these storms if we can't do something to improve the situation. We get caught up in it and try to understand it and predict it, and there are parts of it that we enjoy, or that facinate us, but how can that be reconciled with all of the misery these storms cause.

My brother...he's still trying to work extra shifts on all his days off, which is really not a good thing for a cop that's had a very stressful work environment for awhile, and has lost everything. Why? Because he told me that he wouldn't know what to do on his days off. After two months he's still homeless and only has a bed (that doesn't fit) to sleep in, and of course he's grateful for that, but he doesn't even have a place to sit down and relax (still rebuilding going on at my mom's). There isn't anything I can think of to do for him, short of stealing a MN ice fishing shack and hauling it down there on a truck (they fix those shacks up pretty fancy). And he's better off than most. Today my mother told me she can't imagine what's going to happen to all the folks in Jackson County who are sleeping in tents on their slabs, once it starts to get more towards wintertime (the cold snap probably put that on everyone's mind).

Are we spectators or participants, and is it wrong to be a "hobbyist" when it comes to hurricanes?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63130 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:44 AM

I can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well.

Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma.

Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with.

Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season. All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time. I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns. Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: latest TWO [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #63131 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:24 AM

there's a 'too weak' out on 90L from ssd. i concur... not very well organized at all. there are a few issues that should keep the development slow as is typical with these late-season caribbean features, and of course there is the chance that it can't manage to develop at all. on the west side of the system the northerly flow in the wake of Wilma has plunged all the way down to the western side of panama. there's a sharp convergence line, with the tropical easterlies asserting themselves and pushing the line a little west.. all the while the weak contra-flow often on the pacific side of panama is curled up over the eastern side of the country. end result is a broad gyre at low latitude. it would definitely fester if the upper environment was good and it were focused a little further north, but there is the issue of some nw shear that has swept around underneath the large upper ridge that Wilma left, making an elongated cyclonic turning across much of the caribbean. the intrusion of this semi-hostile upper air flow should keep the surface system from focusing easily. as models forecast the disturbed weather to persist for days, it may win out in the long run... but don't expect a classifiable system tomorrow and probably not on thursday either.
system further east really has the same type of prospects. it is taking a trajectory and progged path similar to the one alpha took days back. not quite as organized at this point, and not under quite the same upper environment.. but as the cyclonic flow over the caribbean contracts there is some ridging/diffluence aloft trying to establish near the wave. its signature has increased slowly through tuesday, and most models track this feature though none are very aggressive with it. i'd say in the long run it has similar chances to what alpha had. like the 90L invest it won't organize very quickly.
thought i'd pick up on the rant from earlier about the saffir simpson scale. putting a category 6 on would be kind of stupid. there would be so few category sixes as to make pointless the classification... case and point there are so few fives. since we had a banner crop this year it seems like they're more plentiful, and we had isabel and Ivan during the previous two years. prior to that there were two in the 1990s, three in the 1980s, and three in the 1970s. pretty doggone rare. there are seldom few examples of pressure below 900mb, which is where the next logical cutoff would be. we somehow managed two this year, and almost 3.
re-doing the saffir simpson scale would be sort of pointless also. it describes the effects you can expect with a particular intensity range... not matched too generically. the forecasts issued by the hurricane center and locally calibrated give a pretty good assessment of what to expect from a storm. storms are going to be rated by their most intense characteristics... thus you'll always get storms like Charley and Andrew more intense than Wilma and Ivan were at landfall... though the latter had potential for much more widespread wind damage. Katrina illustrated very well how surge doesn't necessarily match up with the saffir simpson expectations. it hit at a 4, secondary on ms at a 3.. and the surge was well above what camille or the labor day storm managed.
a more useful thing to do would be to split the categories by effect.. i.e. Katrina in ms had cat 3 winds but a cat 4 pressure and cat 5 surge. adjust accordingly. yes, you can weather the cat 3 storm winds in your home if it's well constructed. no, if you're not more than 25' above sea level you're screwed. the idea of using rainfall is a little spurious. case and point tropical storm allison and alberto in 1994. stan is giving Katrina a run for deadliest storm this year, and it was nowhere near as strong.
something else they could probably do better with is inland wind decay. hurricane force winds really don't make it far inland unless a hurricane is booking. the hurricane center really only does coastal areas. local weather service offices don't always come up with congruent ideas on how the inland wind impacts will come, and often they overdo them. wish the NHC would put out inland wind decay forecasts.
'nother thing i kinda wish the hurricane center would consider is lengthening the watch/warning times. they've taken the plunge and shown good skill with 4-5 day tracks in many cases. the old criteria of 36hr warning and 48hr watch sort of sells their forecast ability short. there should be a longer term alert they can put out, i.e. something from 72hr to tell people 'get you stuff together, get vulnerable things secured and persons ready to go'. probably economics keeping them from doing that, and the risk of making people complacent with storm alerts.. but i tell ya, after new orleans... the benefit may outweigh the risk in the long-run.
that's a hell of a lot. guess i'll just shut up before i write a book.
y'all take it easy.
HF 0524z26october


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63133 - Wed Oct 26 2005 07:34 AM

As for the length of watch/warning times, that seems a good idea. 36/48 hour times are too short for a major Category 4 or 5 storm. They are fine for 1 and 2, and possibly 3, but definately not 4 or 5. Perhaps they should add 24-36 hours if it is category 3+?

As for a redo of the scales, what's the point of pressure? That doesn't directly cause distruction, but rather causes the winds and the surge. I think there needs to be some way of rating the surge level no matter whether any change is made to the existing system (which I think functions quite well). The question is how to get people to understand the surge effect and properly distribute the information in a people-friendly manner. Perhaps we should take our nice elevation maps and start overlaying category zones: (1) 0-5' surge; (2) 5-10' surge; (3) 10-15' surge; etc. Then we distribute these to the local media outlets and say "this storm is a Category 2 surge" which would result in the media outlets distributing, via the airwaves, a map with zones (1) and (2) highlighted. This "might" help. (I've picked intervals randomly...and evacs should always be whatever category level is a couple feet higher than the current category)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63135 - Wed Oct 26 2005 09:02 AM

No, Margie, it isn't wrong to be a "hobbyist" when it comes to hurricanes. The storms are fascinating. We have to
remember that the storms serve a very necessary purpose in moving heat. The earth knows what it is doing.
We made the decision to live on the coast. The key is to be prepared and move out of harm's way if necessary.
We went through Rita this year and Beaumont had extensive damage (my family was fortunate-we lost trees, shingles,
and our fence down but some people lost their homes) but I am still interested in following and learning about the storms.
This year has been especially active and every single state on the Gulf Coast has been affected by a major hurricane, some
of the states more than once. I think what we can learn from this season is how to better prepare by looking at what worked
and what didn't in the preparation and in the aftermath. There is still so much to learn about the storms also.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Clark]
      #63136 - Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 AM

Quote:

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand.


That's my point. When a large part of your job is to communicate effectively, using the media, and you can barely read a statement, not a good thing. Let's put this in the proper perspective (that would be FL politics, not something to lose your sense of humor over). Being in the public eye makes him fair game, and he didn't exactly inspire confidence; the state needs someone that can get the msg out to places like Key West in a way that will convey urgency and motivation. When a major hurricane is coming to town and you've got "hurricane fatigue," to coin a silly media phrase, it's no time to be a complete milquetoast.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: latest TWO [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63137 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:07 AM

All good points. The scale is fine. Each storm is unique in its own way and the scale can only generalize. Part of the problem
with Katrina is New Orleans didn't build those canals and levvies to "hold". This was an anticipated problem and had been talked
about for years. It was a disaster waiting to happen, not unexpected. I do wish that NHC and local media would stress the "cone
of error" more. People tend to look at that black line and say "Well, it is not coming here." and then two days later the track
is right over them. I also think with the huge storms the size of the storm should be emphazised as a larger storm affects more
areas. As for winds inland with Rita we had strong hurricane force winds in Jasper which is pretty far inland so I guess it depends
on the storm. I think it would be a good ideal to break down into more specifics what to expect from each individual storm because
they are all different but I think the scale is fine "as is" for a base. Cat 5's are rare and the three Cat 5's didn't hit land as Cat 5's
(although Katrina's surge was cat 5) so I don't think there needs to be a Cat 6 category. It will be interesting to see whether storms
continue to gain Cat 5 status more regularly over the next few years. One interesting note is the three storms that obtained
Cat 5 status and hit the Gulf Coast states all hit as Cat 3's (Katrina at Cat 4 then Cat 3). There are always people who are going
to stay during the storms. I think a lot of it depends on the emphasis placed on leaving by local officials and local meteorologists that
the people in any area trust. In any instant with these storms, the prudent thing to do is plan for the worse and hope for the best.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63138 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 AM

90L seems to have consolidated somewhat overnight and is looking more organized. It may take another nocturnal convective maximum to put it over the top, but it is starting to acquire the look of something that is going to develop. SHIPS still does not show a whole lot of development and the BAM models are still pushing it west. The 00Z GFDL actually develops this into a 950mb-ish hurricane as it brushes the coast of Nicaragua before finally turning more to the west and moving inland after 84 hours.

The system approaching the lesser Antilles is now classified as 91L. SHIPS indicates slow strengthening at first, but more signficant strengthening beginning around 48 hours. The BAM models want to bring this into the Caribbean.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
90/91 [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63139 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:28 AM

there is early track guidance now being run on the improving wave east of the islands, so now we have the two invests. philosophy on either is changed little.
90 has been holding down a t1.0 rating for two cycles. next cycle might be better as the satellite signature has improved... but this feature is at very low latitude. it's probably less than 100mi north of the panamanian coast. coriolis force is quite weak down there, so tropical cyclones usually have a hard go of it to develop. most of the track guidance nudges the system nw... by the weekend about half has it over nicaragua (after a modest development offshore), and the rest has it sitting up on the nw coast of nicaragua looking north. based on model agreement i'd go with this thing making tropical storm. not sure how inland if at all it will go, but best bet is that it runs over central america. slow mover, probably going to be some bad flooding down there. right now it has a concentrated area of convection, so it could be upgraded to a depression if banding features become apparent.
91 has a too weak rating, and no semblance of a surface low... but convection and the fanned appearance of clouds in a supportive outflow pattern have increased, and there's the sluggish south/fast north trade wind profile that often precedes development. idea that it will evolve along the lines of alpha is unchanged.
in about 3-4 days these two features will be in close proximity. the ukmet solution has the most pronounced version of this, though other models are suggestive.. but it looks like 90L will be clinging to the coast of nicaragua, while 91L will get handed off to a shortwave-spawned system off the east coast. how involved it becomes is questionable, but the globals suggest that it will turn up in the vicinity of jamaica/eastern cuba and recurve sharply. 90L is then shown in later model runs lingering near shore or onshore nicaragua... perhaps coming north sunday or monday if it survives.
feels bizarre to be saying it, but we could easily have beta and gamma before the week is out.
HF 1429z26october

worth adding that if both systems have developed by say, friday, there is a good chance they will binarily interact.. i.e. sort of tug at one another. this would probably keep 90L offshore, but is unlikely to prevent 91L from recurving. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:31 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 90/91 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63140 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:10 AM

Also looks like a disturbed area of weather flared up in the eastern Bahamas, apparently along the cold front, but that doesn't seem to be a favorable area for development righ now. Anything that did try to form there would likely move rather quickly out to sea.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Clark]
      #63141 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM

"can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well. "


--The use of the term nepotism (apologize for the spelling previously..) was intended for levity and it was hoped (though air apparent the motive was lost?) that it would be taken sardonically. Margie made a funny comment, so I thought I'd follow up with my own inimitable brand of cynical humor. BUT, seeing as the comment was taken as holy, I assume then that you were just being kind in notifying me that there is no nepotism involved in Florida? That may very well be true, however, anyone privy to the truths and cloaked schemes that are inherently integral and real about our culture, and always have been (who are we kidding) from public to private affairs, must be willing to conclude that if that is true in Florida, they are the only exception rather than the rule Now, it may also be true that the State Met is just who he is and has no connection to current administrations... Like I said, I didn't see the interview.

"Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma. "

Absolutely! I am on the fence with the track... As of 5pm I'd be real surprised if this wasn't classified as a depression because as the daylight was emerging over the cloud tops of this disturbance on visible imagery there was an undeniable, unmistakable and concerted twisting motion taking place. I don't believe the proximity to land is a huge detriment in this case. The closest adversely affective landmass are really the continent of S. America, because the Ismuth of Panama is surrounded on both sides by deep oceanic heat content and the land bridge its self is quite narrow and therefore offering little ability to modify pure marine based tropical air (There are some mountain there believe it or not, however) That being said, there is also an excited tendency for low-pressure in the general area of the central/western Caribbean, do to teleconnectors abroad. So, any slow mover would have a favorable environment for back-building convection.. This has been noted in the passed, where contributes to preventing circulation centers from moving inland because the circulation thus has the wherewithal to continuously reposition just off shores - prime candidate for that sort of behavior here. We'll see...

"Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with. "

--Right... I was actually speaking in deference to someone else’s assertion that the water was dramatically cooler, which I disagreed with.. In earlier post I mentioned that it was likely that condition was transient in nature; which is much along the lines of what you are intimating.

"Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season....All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time."

--Like I said...Barring seasonal fluxes, which is code for westerlies allowing.... However, I would caution, it is risky business to assume certain behavior based purely on passed performance... But you know this, I assume.

" I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns."

--That is actually true even for your August/September storms as they are translating to latitudes near New England.. You simply cannot get a powerful hurricane to turn the corner and come up the East Coast without gulping drier continental air into its backside, which almost immediately implies a horizontal thermal gradient and subsequent baroclinic genesis subtending S beneath the event... But it terms of calendar relativity...I always thought it possible - though almost rare to the point of never happening - to have seriously cold air and low and mid levels and a super-intense baroclinic field, with a very powerful U/A shortwave rounding the base of a meridianal trough expression, and still have a hurricane in the Bahamas ready to ingest into that... Imagine that - having a 1991 like super-union, but have it take place near the coast while H850mb thickness' are conducive to snow?! If something like that happened, it would have to be in December - perhaps better material for sci-fi but for a few minutes, Wilma looked interesting.

"Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October. "

--True.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63142 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:10 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



Think Beta is in the making.... just by looking at sat.... should be near TD status now!

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km Visible
Costa Rica GOES-East 2 km VIS

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63143 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:37 PM

Quote:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



Think Beta is in the making.... just by looking at sat.... should be near TD status now!

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km Visible
Costa Rica GOES-East 2 km VIS




yeah - but i'm a little less impressed with the "apparent" wnw motion that is equally as evident on sat. not sure if this is really connected with any larger scale steering controls; i see a possibility....

..it's a shallow system and therefore is still very susceptible to the background environmental field, which would tend to be ese to wnw in that area. should "beta" evolve quicker, however, it may slow down when it deepens for better ability to fend off some of these background environmental motions. ...there may also actually be perturbation in the synoptics surrounding the area that is causing this motion and it is therefore uncertain as to how long it would persists if that is the case. thing is, the 00Z GFDL takes it well over a 100kts in 72 hours, and then drives it inland to do what is likely a historic flood job. even if so, i think the faster it develops the better off it will be in this case - if you are an intensity enthusiast that is - for there is some suggestion in the global models that a ssw to nne steering field could be establishing in that area, which would mitigate a large longitudinal gain.

..and btw: i dissagree that it would be preclusively unlikely (if anyone is actually thinking that) for another upper end event to affect the SE U.S. this season. ...what i mean by 'upper end' is borderline cat 2/3... anyway, there is enough heat content in the Caribbean to spawn a notable system (not necessarily historic but strong nonetheless), and it is equally as conceivable with teleconnectors the way they are, that a semi-permanent conduit could set up shop from the Yucatan to off the NC Coast, being that there is a trough axis tending to situation near 85 W in the ensemble means. that may change way out in time, because i'm seeing a hints, frets and tendencies in some of the clusters for heights to lower over davis straight and greenland...that would tend to flip the nao more neutral if not positive for a time being and a good opportunity for mid-latitude blocking ridge/indian summer for the mid-atlantic and new england.....that is, should these hints and frets and tendencies be more than just computer enhance haluciations (those have gotten me in the past!) for the time being, however, i think that it is not uncommon to have such a conduit.. not only that..."if" you develop a system near to it but no "in" it, that conduit can actually aid in development by exciting outflow channels... we saw this rather classically with Wilma, in that she had an unbelievably powerful polarward outflow channel, which was established about the time she ended up locked in the entrance region of the trough that ultimately spawned the unrelated nor'easter... not only that, system caught up in these type of conduits (actually they are mwcb's - warm conveyor belts) will suffer minimal environmental shear because they are moving smartly along with the flow.

...lot's to consider....but, i'd say not only should the nw caribbean monitor, i think that is a hint georgraphically for florida and so forth as well...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 12:51 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wiley
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63144 - Wed Oct 26 2005 12:52 PM

not necessarily historic but strong nonetheless

we're in the greek alphabet...isn't everything historic at this point??


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63145 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:34 PM

Report from NW Broward - Margate / Coral Springs / Deerfield:

Note to mods: I hope this is right place for this info... if not please redirect.

Basically a repeat of what NWBroward said - the front side of the eye wall (eastern side) was no big deal, some small trees came down as wind was blowing 60 with gusts to 80 mph I'd guess. Then the back side hit and YIKES, wind was steady out of the west at 80 and gusting to 100 or more. Eye was cloudy and breeze (40 mph gusts).

In general many trees down, minor roof damage, lots of screened patios/pool enclosures gone, most fences down. Damage varies, for example my brother's place in Deerfield is worst, as every single tree is down and I'm talking BIG old trees. In Oakland Park (2 miles west of the ocean) my buddies Florida Room had the sliding glass doors blow out and the roof peeled back! Personally my house is fine, we lost some roof tiles and all the trees in the backyard including three 30' Queen Palms are sitting at a 45 degree angle, thankfully they missed the house. I'm going to upload some pictures later.

After two days it has become apparent to me that the power is going to be out for a long time. So I just made the 2 hour drive from Broward to Highland County to reach my parents place in Lake Placid. The area around Lake O got hit hard too, however small pockets have power and some gas is available there if your willing to wait. Back home no such luck... power is out in 90% of the county (population 1 million!), maybe 1% of gas stations are open and those that are have 2 to 3 miles worth of traffic surrounding them. Traffic is a nightmare, no signals, no gas, people just driving aimless about looking for gas, it was dangerous so we got out. Long lines for water and ice are relief stations, very few officals around, mostly just local cops trying to keep order and direct traffic. Biggest problem is lack of gas for generators, some grocery stores are open selling no perisables, it's not that bad provided you have plenty of gas to cover the large distances between open stores. With the lack of gas driving anywhere is a big risk since there could be none by the time you arrive.

Major damage to the power grid in the tri-county area, I live 2 blocks from an FLP substation and there is twisted metal and broken lines. Rough estimated is 4 weeks for power to come in most areas but could be as many as 6 weeks in remote sections. Power is back on in Miami Beach and MIA is funcational, but FTL and Port Everglades are not. I figure I'll be up here Lake Placid for atleast a week, maybe two. Nothing to do back home anyway, no power at work for either me or the wife.

FYI - If your trying to reach family in Dade, Broward or Palm Beach I can tell you the following: I'm sure they are fine, no structual damage to speak of really - sure some sections of roof came off, moblie homes were tossed about but your average apartment, condo or single family building is OK. Some cars got crushed by trees. However the phones are very messed up, you never know when or if they are going to work. All day Monday after the storm we had land lines, but as of Tuesday AM they went down. Cell phones are very iffy, best bet is text messages. I can only get in touch with my brother via text messages and he only lives 7 miles from me! Communication is near impossible, I went to work and wrote a note that got tapped to the bosses office door, all attempts to contact him via cell phone have failed (he live in northern Palm Beach BTW).

Thank god the weather cooled off, most dramatic change in weather I have ever experienced. I'll try to post pictures, just sorting thru the various sites and email right now. Sorry for any spelling mistakes, typing pretty fast here.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63146 - Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM

NHC has moved floater1 to 90L, and floater2 to 91L.

While there is clear rotation and good outflow, for 90L on the visual sat images I think some of what looks to be rotation on the east, flowing to the north, is actually convection being blown off by shear.

The shear analysis indicates more favorable outflow than yesterday, and that does appear to be true, but I'm not convinced that what i am seeing on sat is the shear pattern on the analysis. It seems like at the moment, there is a little more shear than identified...that 20kt shear actually looks to be a little more to the west than indicated (the shear analysis hasn't always told the correct story this year). But overall it's in an area of lower shear, relative to other areas of the Carib, and there is warm water in the forecasted direction of drift, and we have all seen how important outflow is this season. It is forecast likely to turn west instead of heading due N, and that's good because north of 15N there is still a lot of warm water left in the Caribbean, just north of the track taken by Wilma, all the way from Cayman to just SW of Cuba's western tip.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 28 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 62781

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center