Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
Rich-
I agree, with our systems not up to speed and blue tarps on many roofs, a major rain is a problem. Someone in my office who has a blue tarp house flooded last night from the rain with virtually no wind. Image what even a 30-40 mph wind will do.
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
With recon finding a closed circulation...
? No vortex msg. Where did you see that they found evidence of a closed circ? No evidence on satellite.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:14 PM)
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
I fully agree with that there is enough evidence to classify the system as 'Gamma'... my main concern is that the intensity forecast is over-aggressive. 55 kts is possible, but it does not seem like the most likely scenario. A lot depends on how much the system winds up before turning NE, if it does at all. If it is well-organized at that point, baroclinic factors may help it intensify or maintain its intensity, but if it remains a broad low, or if it ends up making landfall on the Yucutan, then it could just as easily be a depression or open wave in 72 hours.
NHC is the best in the business, though, and most of the time I second-guess their forecasts, I end up being wrong.
|
Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
|
|
Its early in the game. Those track and intensity forecasts will firm up over the next 24-36 hours. We'll see how it likes eating shear and cooler water once it clears the lee side of the Yucatan.
|
Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
Sunsentinel.com is really sensationalizing it and saying we may have a cat. 1, but some models say it may dissipate.
The initial forecast called for Gamma to remain a tropical storm as it approached Florida, with the possibility it may become a Category 1 hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph. Forecasters also said some computer models indicated Gamma could dissipate because of wind shear in the upper atmosphere.
"Right now, the forecast is highly uncertain," Knabb said.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:16 PM)
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Honesly the guy on Ch 13 said he is more worried about the squall line with the cold front coming then this storm.
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.
Anywho… a little proviso on the indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :
...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.
EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same. 
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:34 PM)
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Margie:
Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.
The above is taken from the Glossary. You may recall that when recon confirmed that TD 27 has initially developed there was also no vortex message. However, to be classified as a Tropical Cyclone there must be a closed surface circulation.
Regards
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Do you think I don't know the definition. It drives home my point...do you see evidence of a closed circulation on satellite? Read the discussion, they danced around it.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Agree Margie, it doesn't look like much of a circulation but then again I think in the formative stages,
the satelitte pic's can be decieving to some degree.
Too late in the season for arguing amongst friends, it's all good. If we were pro's we'd be in Miami
at the I suppose.
Good luck everyone in Florida. It's been a long and dreadful storm season. I'm ready for it to
be over and if next years season was a light one I'll be happy.
Have a nice Thanksgiving and lets all find something to truly be thankfull for this year....
|
Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
|
|
For me, the very last sentence at the bottom of every page is the operative one. The has to walk a fine line between underplaying or crying wolf.
With the reduced hours of sunlight, does anyone know when the diurnal convective maximum occurs?
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Quote:
Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.
Anywho… a little proviso on the indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :
...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.
EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same.
No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the say something different.
Only the has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.
with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.
In this case we have stuff to support it.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 19 2005 02:05 PM)
|
Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
The 18Z doesn't show it to my untrained eye. The only thing all the models agree on is a Nor' Easter.
I do have a question, why isn't the giving any credence to the SHIPS or other models?
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Nov 18 2005 11:08 PM)
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.
I wonder if they also used some of the information from the weather station on Roatan Island. http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
I sent an email to a few people at the about 4:45 pm with a link to that station and stated sustained winds were 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Hmmmm.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
The following recon report indicated 43 kt sustained winds at flight-level, which may be the basis of upping the intensity, in addition to the surface obs mentioned above.
000
URNT11 KNHC 182154
97779 21524 60161 86419 03100 36043 20209 /0009
RMK AF309 02JJA INVEST OB 22
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Quote:
No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the say something different.
Only the has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.
with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.
In this case we have stuff to support it.
You're trolling Ralph, but I'll bite.
I think it's going to hit Tampa as a 75mph Hurricane monday Evening. Why do I think that you ask?
1) I think the front in question will help steer the storm up and over florida.
2) I think the shear will not keep the storm from continuing a slow development. (notice several storms have continued to inensify in spite of significant shear this season)
3) as the storm starts accelerating towards the NE, The relative shear will lessen, giving the storm an opportunity to maintain or increase it's strength (see for a great example of that).
4) the models don't have enough information to make a good judgement yet, So I'll stick with climatology.
Climatology is not the worst thing to use when forecasting, as you can pick out general trends that models will not pick up early in a storms carrer. Modelling becomes useful once the storm is established, but models aren't perfect.
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
For all you dunces like me that hasn't a clue what any of this code means, I looked it up and added my own comments to the example.
Example:
URNT11 KNHC 161227
AF967 0212A LILI OB 08 KNHC
97779 code
12314 time gmt
40169 lat
82508 long
04000 altitude
22020 wind dir / wind speed
25218
/0007 pressure 1007mb
42115;
The first two lines are the heading of the message.
The first group is almost always "97779".
Time. The first four numbers in the second group is the time of the observation, in Greenwich Mean Time (subtract 4 hours to get Eastern Daylight Time, 5 hours to get Central Daylight Time, or subtract 6 hours to get Central Standard Time). In the example, "1231" is 1231 GMT, or 7:31 a.m. CDT.
Location. Find the latitude in the last three digits of the third group, and the longitude in the first three digits of the second group. The latitude and longitude are reported in degrees and tenths. If the longitude is 100.0 degrees or above, the first "1" is dropped in the code, for example, 104.3W is coded "043"; you need to look elsewhere in the code if you aren't sure if that was 4.3W or 104.3W. In the above example, the aircraft was at 16.9N 82.5W.
Altitude. The first three digits of the fifth group tells you approximately how high the aircraft is flying. It is coded in "decameters", which means you need to multiply this number by 10 to convert to meters, then multiply by 3.281 if you want to convert to feet. In the above example, the altitude is coded "040" = 40 dm = 400 m = 1312 ft. This tells you the aircraft is on a low-level mission.
Winds. The sixth group is the wind measured at the altitude of the airplane. The first two digits are the wind direction, to the nearest ten degrees. Wind direction is reported similar to compass headings, where 360 or 0 degrees is north. In the code, 09=east, 18=south, and 27=west. The next three digits is the wind speed in knots. Multiply by 1.152 to convert to miles per hour. In the above example, "22020" is a wind of 220 degrees (blowing out of the southwest) at 020 knots (23 mph).
Pressure. The eighth group, always begins with a "/". The second digit tells you at what level the aircraft is flying. A "0", as above, shows the aircraft is flying below 1500 feet and is estimating sea-level pressure. The next three digits is the pressure or height data. Only if the second digit is a "0" will this be sea-level pressure (in millibars). In the above example, the sea-level pressure is 1007 millibars. This is a complicated group, and for aircraft flying above 1500 feet, see the full decode below.
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|
pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
|
|
Here we go again with Tampa. Most models don't even have it hitting Florida yet Tampa becomes the favorite again. This storm could be headed to Iraq and many would still be wishcasting for Tampa. I'm leaving for Disney in 2 days and was hoping for some nice weather. I guess I may see some rain on Sunday and early Monday.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I think it's going to hit Tampa as a 75mph Hurricane monday Evening. Why do I think that you ask?
I think you're on target with all of your points, Mark, but.. the front in question will steer it south of Tampa, more toward the area where hit, which is what is forecast (shocking that I'm actually agreeing with the forecast on this one!).
Based upon the IR4 loop over the last couple of hours, I'm afraid Gamma may pull a and strengthen rapidly, if it's not already doing it. What looked like a sick mass of loosely-coupled clouds earlier this afternoon (about the time the recon info came back which resulted in the upgrade to Gamma) is now coming together rather nicely this evening with much colder cloud tops. It's certainly not -like right now, but, well, nothing would shock me. Personally, I *expect* Gamma to top out as a Cat 1-2 storm and weaken to a strong T.S. or Cat 1 at landfall somewhere over the Everglades.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
|
|
I guess I just didn't want to think on it too much so I wasn't online watching a lot.......saw the 5pm news and almost choked on my iced tea!
DANG! enough already. I know the folks in SFL need a break...and....we need the rain - so - I volunteer to have the clouds and rain this time. (well - you didn't think I would volunteer for a 'cane did ya?)  When hubby got home and I told him about Gamma - well......you just should have seen his face. ( got him to volunteer to go to the grocery store though)
I believe this will become a very tricky timing thing..from what I saw on the models (haven't looked in a few hours) it almost looked like Gamma and the front will happen so close tog that it might pull part of Gamma further up the coast. Or maybe I just need to watch the models more. 
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Love ya, Dotty
(items that should have been sent using the Private Message capability were removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 19 2005 02:11 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
