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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Delta... why not?
      #63879 - Tue Nov 22 2005 02:26 PM

Have you ever watched one of those B-horror flicks where the monster/evil thing keeps getting supposedly done in, but returns a scene or two later no matter how dead it's supposed to be?

Don't you start wondering when the danged thing will just quit trying and wait until the sequel? Well, for those of you watching the 2005 hurricane season, you're probably starting to feel that way about how things are going.
Right now the system being tracked as invest 95L south of the Azores is, as the NHC puts it, 'acquring tropical characteristics'. The satellite analysis algorithms used by NRL and SSD think it's a sort of tropical cyclone, as NRL has it rated as a 40kt gale center with a 988mb central pressure... and SSD has it rated subtropical 2.5, or roughly a 35-40kt hybrid tropical cyclone. The 1:05 PM EST tropical discussion issued by the NHC notes it as a special feature 985mb low, as part of an occluded frontal system... the language says that it's acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any time.

Last night Clark passed along that numerous global weather models are analyzing it as warm core. During the late season occasionally cut-off lows that occlude in the subtropics will go through the usual process that it's species of low does... after occlusion they will slowly acquire a warm core, and the convective processes that a tropical system usually needs will be sustained by the relative difference to their environment... even if the sea surface temperatures are running below that normal 27C/80F threshold usually considered necessary.
Forecast models take this low southward, stall it, and give it a variety of eccentric paths from there by the weekend as the big blocking high to the north (upstream of the deep trough currently in the Eastern U.S.) keeps it more or less in the middle of nowhere. Based on the current appearance it is quite likely that the NHC will upgrade the system to Subtropical or Tropical Storm Delta this evening... so if it follows one of the various forecast paths and lingers as projected, this system could be wandering around past Turkey Day.
Elsewhere there are a couple of convective complexes in the Caribbean.

Gamma's remnants have slid south along the coast of Nicaragua, while a small low pressure north of Panama is firing a little bit of convection. Upper winds are not supportive in the area.. but you guessed it.. may become favorable for development around the end of the week, if anything lingers. There's a small disturbance/wind shift line south of Puerto Rico, but conditions there are also generally unfavorable.
I've put up an early 2006 season forecast thread in the forum. It's just for fun... take your best shot at how active the coming hurricane season will be, based on what little we can tell about next year from here. In May we'll do an update where we can all make better stabs at it.

Alrighty, y'all have a good one.

HF 1926z22november


Edited by MikeC (Tue Nov 22 2005 02:55 PM)


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Rich B
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63880 - Tue Nov 22 2005 02:37 PM

Agree with you totally on 95L, HF. Given the language coming from the NHC's products - namely the latest TWO and TWD - it would seem as if they are ready to classify this as Delta. However, given as there is no immediate land mass under threat, classification will likely wait until the normal 2100z package. Satellite imagery on this one has been showing a continually improving and organizing system. It appears to be detatching from the larger frontal cloud and structure, and taking on its own identity. With estimates putting winds in excess of 35 knts, it is likely that when (if) classified it will go straight to Storm strength, and miss out on depression status. Still, with the 2100z packages likely to come out within the next hour or so, we will see if it gets called now.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63885 - Tue Nov 22 2005 03:46 PM

it appears this year has something else in common with last hurricane season--the NHC seems to be deciding lately not to name tropical storms that form late in the season

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Rabbit]
      #63887 - Tue Nov 22 2005 04:20 PM

I wouldnt say that was a trait just from last year! Look how long it took them to classify Vince earlier this year.

With NRL still listing the system as 95L, and nothing on the NHC site, it looks like we wont see Delta just yet. The next likely time for a classification would be at 0300z. But seeing as they havent classified it now, it wouldnt be a surprise if they wait til visible imagery is available tomorrow and then go from there. However, visible imagery from earlier showed a well developed system, and the latest IR imagery continues to do so. Still, i guess they must have their reasons for classifying or not!

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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ltpat228
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Rich B]
      #63889 - Tue Nov 22 2005 04:37 PM

Thank you Rich B for your experienced Meteorlogical expertise.

Pat W.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63890 - Tue Nov 22 2005 05:28 PM

Well the 530PM TWO is out, and it looks like we dont have Delta... just yet. I would guess that NHC are waiting for the system to generate persistent and deep convection. It has been generating convection during today, but most of this has been relatively shallow. Recent IR imagery would suggest that this may be changing though, with an area of intense cold topped convection having formed to the immediate west of the centre, and now wrapping around the southern and eastern quadrants. If this continues then it has a decent shot. I would also imagine that NHC are waiting for it to break free totally from the frontal system to its northeast. Given how it is moving away from the front, and the continually improving convective patterns, we could see this upgraded within the next 6 to 12 hours.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Margie
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Rich B]
      #63891 - Tue Nov 22 2005 06:03 PM

Rich, from the NHC definition of a Tropical Cyclone:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

If you look at the latest 85Hz scan (from about 3pm) from the NRL site, there is only a very small area of significant deep convection just to the ESE of the center that only covers about from 75 to 135 deg...barely a quarter of the way around, and barely any other convection present.

Even Gamma had more convection than this when classified (wrapping about 200 deg around the center...it was at about T2.5).

Edit: and the 2311Z pass doesn't show any deep convection at all.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Tue Nov 22 2005 07:22 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Rich B]
      #63893 - Tue Nov 22 2005 06:29 PM

Quote:

Well the 530PM TWO is out, and it looks like we dont have Delta... just yet. I would guess that NHC are waiting for the system to generate persistent and deep convection. It has been generating convection during today, but most of this has been relatively shallow. Recent IR imagery would suggest that this may be changing though, with an area of intense cold topped convection having formed to the immediate west of the centre, and now wrapping around the southern and eastern quadrants. If this continues then it has a decent shot. I would also imagine that NHC are waiting for it to break free totally from the frontal system to its northeast. Given how it is moving away from the front, and the continually improving convective patterns, we could see this upgraded within the next 6 to 12 hours.

Regards




..Whether HPC has pulled the trigger on this at 5pm or not, I believe the after thought of most tropical Mets is that it has already acquired sub-tropical characteristics - check that, IS a nameable system at this time. Not sure with the overwhelming signal we are getting from heat channels what the hold up is, but I suspect it may have something to do with the actual meteorology of what is going on out there... I'll eat crow if wrong, but I suspect this is an internal policy decision because of certain meteorological observations that need to be atoned for; they will soon enough! (*I cast no aspersion at HPC for any policies they have and frankly believe they are completely necessary for a few reasons I won't broach here..)

For example, we do still see a tendency for a subtended baroclinic field between the remnant mid-lvl trough N, and the system its self, W of 30 longitude. However, there are no current large scale synoptic suggestions/reasonings that connote "Delta" will effectively be re-captured by the westerlies therein. Normally, when observing a tropical system so close to a baroclinically forced SFC trough you immediately think "..Oh, NNE motion along/ahead of that boundary.." - Nope, not this time.

I'm sure you are much agreed with this stuff already...But, in fact, quite the opposite as the continued separation from said attenuating trough is certain and already underway... This "monster" (for you HF ) is taking on more independent structure in tandem with that trough N losing its own present in the N Atlantic... It is filling and will be totally gone from the regions along 30W soon as the exertion of the -NA0 is coming into prominence. The -NAO will provide for a nice deep layer ridging there much sooner over later. This will effect/incur a S drift to "Delta", as HF has been intimating and follows quite logically...

Lastly, it is intriguing that in the -NAO phase we typically do see the amplification of the Azore's Low... I find it interesting that the counter part variant for this particular NAO seem to be an evolving tropical phenomenon... You have to find that awesome?

--...bold and or highlighted meteorology reference-able sections are for the general reader... I should also add a caveat that the SSTs are a slightly less that 26C....so we are certainly not talking explosive development!
TT

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Nov 22 2005 06:33 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Margie]
      #63894 - Tue Nov 22 2005 07:05 PM

Looking at the latest imagry on delta, what is catching my attention the most is how the storm is now operating in isolation, there doesn't seem to be any attached fronts. I would argue the storm is more tropical in nature than sub tropical at this point, but it's still got a big windfield, Seeing some rain flagged 50Kt winds near the center. hmmmm, Personally I'd have classified, it, but they'll probably wait until an eyelike feature develops (which seems to be happening).

for an example of a similar storm. Olga in 2001 comes to mind. the cloud tempratures never got really cold, in fact I think the current invest has tempratures as cold as olga ever had, even when it had a well defined eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001olga.html

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Clark
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Margie]
      #63896 - Tue Nov 22 2005 07:48 PM

Just as an aside, Margie, the 85GHz channel on the satellite products available on the NRL's site isn't directly a measure of deep convection. That channel, through various physical processes, is sensitive to ice content at upper levels. Higher ice content leads to lower brightness temperatures (what those images are displaying); note that a brightness temperature isn't an actual temperature, but instead deals with some of the radiative properties of an object.

Generally yes, deep convection will have relatively high ice content...but you'll see moderate to deep convection occasionally appear that does not have very high ice content. In the case of an extratropical cyclone trying to become a tropical cyclone, it's probably better to use the microwave imagery to try to discern developing banding or even eyewall structures and infrared imagery to actually sense the organization of the convection. A lot of this harkens back to these systems primarily being found in the midlatitudes and not the tropics and the properties of convection normally seen here.

In soon-to-be Delta's case, infrared imagery has hinted at a developing eyewall all afternoon, much as was seen with Vince immediately prior to classification, and the microwave image you referenced seems to confirm that with hints of a banding-style eye forming. It's getting close to classification and I would not be surprised to see it classified at 10p ET.


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Old Sailor
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Clark]
      #63897 - Tue Nov 22 2005 07:58 PM

Maybe more as a TD from latest sat's.

22/2345 UTC 29.8N 40.9W T2.0/2.0 95
22/1745 UTC 30.9N 40.4W ST2.5/2.5 95
22/1145 UTC 31.3N 39.9W ST2.5/2.5 95
Dave


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63898 - Tue Nov 22 2005 08:11 PM

Skeetobiteweather.com (weird name, no?) does not have the models for 95L. Could it be headed for the US?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Clark
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63899 - Tue Nov 22 2005 08:54 PM

I concur...probably quite a bit more than that, too. Check the 37GHz satellite product from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) at the NRL site. Note that the 37GHz product is sensitive to liquid water content and rainfall -- thus, the image you're seeing can be viewed as somewhat akin to a poor man's radar image. That depiction is not unlike what you see with many strong tropical storms or weak hurricanes and not terribly unlike that seen with Vince. The wind field is certainly there, per QuikSCAT, for a moderate tropical storm at least. The satellite appearance of this one continues to improve, both on infrared and microwave imagery, and has done so to the point that I will be quite surprised not to see Delta at 10p.

And to answer the follow-up question -- no threat at all to the US or any other land mass. Maybe in a week to 10 days, whatever is left of it will be part of some extratropical system impacting the Azores or Europe, but that's not likely to be anything more than they typically see from midlatitude weather systems.


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HanKFranK
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Clark]
      #63900 - Tue Nov 22 2005 09:04 PM

sailor, because of the shallower than typical convection and ragged look the storm has under a less-than-normal anticyclonic flow aloft, the satellite algorithms don't see a tropical storm. however, if you look at cloud motions and the fact that it has an eye and partial convective ring, the idea that it's a depression is nuts. remember, those t-ratings run low when you've got a sheared or hybrid system.
with the tropical rating and gale force quickscat vectors, the NHC not classifying the system at the next advisory cycle would be prepostorous. almost certain they will. if it goes straight to tropical, it begets the question: why have a subtropical system classification? they rarely use it for hybrid systems.. usually waiting until the system is obviously tropical to start advisories on it. case and point--vince earlier this year, otto last year, peter in 2003, karen in 2001... the post-analyzed subtropical storm of 2000. really hope the NHC takes a more active stance on classifying subtropical cyclones when they're active, as opposed to after the fact.
been looking at the SST fields out there, and along the expected track they run pretty much in the upper 70s. 80F gets quoted as the threshold all the time, but a tropical storm or hurricane in a colder than normal, baroclinic, or high-than normal slp environment doesn't always need that number. when dealing with late season hybrids, the usual barotropic rules are out the window.
okay, 'nuff of that.
HF 0204z23november


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Old Sailor
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Clark]
      #63901 - Tue Nov 22 2005 09:06 PM

A little history here guys, more ships and life lost were do to gales then hurricanes in our history, so one shouldn't be so fast with the one Hurricane as being the biggest killer..

Dave


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HanKFranK
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63903 - Tue Nov 22 2005 09:31 PM

well, maybe that's 'cause a lot of shipping historically has stayed out of the tropics. i'd bet if you compared the volume of shipping traffic in the mid latitudes to the volume of shipping traffic in the tropics, and normalized the casualty rates to the amounts.. they'd be a lot closer.
HF 0231z23november

note: as of 9:30 EST, NRL hasn't changed the track on 95L. that suggests that NHC may not upgrade this cycle. somebody is asleep at the switch. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 22 2005 09:34 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63904 - Tue Nov 22 2005 09:53 PM

Hank:

I was also talking about landfall systems, Nor'Easters etc, just check your history on both at Sea and Land fall.

Dave

guess i'll have to. you're the sailor here. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 22 2005 11:43 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63905 - Tue Nov 22 2005 11:51 PM

alright alright, it's still a 'strong, non-tropical low'. with an eye and CDO and no frontal attachment, of course.
it's inevitable that they'll upgrade it. may get to hurricane if the convection deepens some, based on the level of organization.
maybe it's just that i've been waiting for this thing since.. hang on let me check. sunday, november 14th was the first mention. yeah, i'm tired of waiting. now i have to wait for the NHC guys to decide that a system that meets their criteria is a tropical cyclone.
so anyway, delta is out in the east atlantic. to be named tomorrow? knabb must have something against nonconformists.
HF 0451z23november


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Margie
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63906 - Wed Nov 23 2005 12:24 AM

But it doesn't look like the tropical storms I've been seeing and learning about all season. It doesn't look very tropical. On the water vapor the temperature of the center isn't all that warm, the convection doesn't look the same like I'm used to seeing, and there's some kind of lack of, I'm not sure how to put it, but the band doesn't seem like a feeder band, with a force driving the convection into the center. It's more like a group of clouds that are all moving around the center, but only because of the rotation, like they're all just sitting in place, like a record on a turntable; staying the same, static. It seems like there is some dynamic that is missing.

Unbelieveably, the Circulation that Wouldn't Die is still spinning and now pulling along some convection as it heads into Central America at the border of Panama and Costa Rica.

see if you can find that paper on hurricane karl of 1980. a lot of the ET-T transition events happen where a hurricane forms within a large deep layer low. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 23 2005 03:28 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Margie]
      #63907 - Wed Nov 23 2005 01:21 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005 (edited~danielw)

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 982 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N41W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER TONIGHT WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD AND WARM FRONTS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 33N34W.
STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL...IT IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"... OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
punctuation and spacing edited for ease of reading and emphasis~danielw


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Bloodstar
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Margie]
      #63908 - Wed Nov 23 2005 01:30 AM

Quote:

But it doesn't look like the tropical storms I've been seeing and learning about all season. It doesn't look very tropical. On the water vapor the temperature of the center isn't all that warm, the convection doesn't look the same like I'm used to seeing, and there's some kind of lack of, I'm not sure how to put it, but the band doesn't seem like a feeder band, with a force driving the convection into the center. It's more like a group of clouds that are all moving around the center, but only because of the rotation, like they're all just sitting in place, like a record on a turntable; staying the same, static. It seems like there is some dynamic that is missing.

Unbelieveably, the Circulation that Wouldn't Die is still spinning and now pulling along some convection as it heads into Central America at the border of Panama and Costa Rica.




You're right, in a lot of ways Margie, these relatively 'cold' tropical systems are an odd entity. they exist in relatively cool waters, forming in isolation from an extra tropical low. even when/if this storm develops an eye, you won't see cloud tops in the -60 - -70 degree range, instead you'll see a ring in the -40's maybe -50's that just look unimpressive compared to the storms that typically form, but there is still winds of 70 - 80mph in the center.

I Know I keep coming back to Olga in 2001, but it really was the Archetype 'cold' warm core system. The system was over relatively cold water (22 - 23 degress centigrade) when it was finally classified first, ST, then tropical storm and then deemed a hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/OLGA_text.html

From:
HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INTERMITTENT EYE AT THE
CENTER OF OGLA...WHICH AS OF THIS WRITING IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB. ON THIS BASIS...OLGA IS UPGRADED TO
A 65 KT HURRICANE.

Then later in the discussion:

OLGA IS CURRENTLY OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

an extra point made in a later disussion:

THE OCEAN IS COOL...BUT ACCORDING THE THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TOWARD INTENSIFICATION

The south atlantic Hurricane was also an example of a 'cold' tropical system. They do pop up from time to time, it just takes several things to happen to create one. Hopefully this will help us all understand hybrid systems and the cool tropical systems when they develop. (The more we can study the better we can understand them)

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63909 - Wed Nov 23 2005 01:52 AM

Mark brings up a good point via the NHC discussion on Olga -- it's not just the surface temperatures that are important, although having that surface heating (and moisture) does help a lot. Instead, the key factor is the difference in temperature between the ocean's surface and the top of the troposphere, or the tropopause. If you have cooler than ideal SSTs, say 5C below normal, you can "make up for it" with cooler temperatures at the tropopause, also 5C cooler than what you might normally see in the tropics.

This all works because we view a tropical cyclone as a heat engine. As with all machines, a heat engine has a specified efficiency -- you aren't going to get it working perfectly, in many cases. With a tropical system, the efficiency is generally about 30%; this efficiency is specified by the difference in temperatures noted above. This helps to drive a lot of the midlatitude "tropically transitioned" tropical systems and was a key factor in the development of Vince.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Clark]
      #63910 - Wed Nov 23 2005 02:20 AM

A Low within a Low??
95L appears to be on the NW Quadrant of a much larger Low.
Image-copyright 2005 EUMETSAT


copyright 2005 EUMETSAT
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcService=SS_GET_PAGE&nodeId=444&l=en

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 23 2005 02:33 AM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: danielw]
      #63911 - Wed Nov 23 2005 02:25 AM

I'd spotted that as well... it could drive 95 down south and south west, or it could shear it to pieces... depending on the relative motions of the 2 systems....

be interesting to see what shows up in visible imagry

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63912 - Wed Nov 23 2005 02:32 AM

That larger Low may be the reasoning behind the forecast motion of 95L.
Similar to the Fujiwara effect.
A Low rotating around another Low.


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Doombot!
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December [Re: danielw]
      #63913 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:30 AM

As an intresting side note, 2001, 2003, and 2004 all had named systems in December. Based on that and the way we're going we might make it to Zeta (Delta [already out there, just waiting for the name], Epsilon, Zeta), the first and likely last "Z" storm.

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dave foster
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: danielw]
      #63914 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:39 AM

Well, I'm really confused now! What has everyone been watching for the last 12 hours and discussing. It seems like I've been watching a low, not 95L. It appears that the 4x4 mass that was centred on 30N 40W at 0000z was not 95L, even though it looked like a tropical-type system with a developing eye and distinct banding. Now, I look at the latest NRL images and still see the 4x4 mass centred at 27.5N 40.9W, but that is some 2.5 degrees south of where 95L is supposed to be located, although I cannot see anything there?? From what I am now reading, and from what I just saw in the GFDL animation, 95L has been, and still is, embedded in the 4x4 low and revolving inside it. Someone please tell me, is that the case? And, if so, how could so many people on this forum have got it so wrong?

I have to say that, like many others here 12 hours ago, I couldn't understand why the NHC were not classifying
what I was seeing. I think I now understand why - they weren't seeing what everyone else appeared to be seeing.

I just want to understand what has actually been happening in the mid atlantic since just before this thread was started.

--------------------
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ltpat228
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: dave foster]
      #63916 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:46 AM

Tomorrow being Thanksgiving in America, most weather stations, news, etc. have been showing all the snow in the US and barely mentioning any possible tropical activities.

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Lee-Delray
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: ltpat228]
      #63917 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:54 AM

Let's face it 95L really isn't that important. It's not going to hit the US, but a snowstorm will screw up millions of people.

It's fun for us to look at this as hobbiests; nothing else.


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damejune2
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: ltpat228]
      #63919 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:24 AM

ITPat - you know why? All the snow, rain and windy conditions ARE effecting people in the US. That stupid storm in the atlantic is bothering shipping and the fish - who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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UKCloudgazer
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: dave foster]
      #63920 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:39 AM

Here are some of the previous co-ordinates from Old Sailor on an earlier post.

22/2345 UTC 29.8N 40.9W T2.0/2.0 95
22/1745 UTC 30.9N 40.4W ST2.5/2.5 95
22/1145 UTC 31.3N 39.9W ST2.5/2.5 95

The latest Navy co-ordinates at 1415Z are 272N-409W.

Looks like it on the Atlantic map too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html

So It appears to be moving south. (Does this mean it is about to disconnect from main low?) Assume you are not confusing 40W with 40N. Also not confusing time differences on this site - 5 hours earlier than Ztime. Of course, I may be confused myself...

Anyway, if HankFrank, Clark, Tip, Margie, DanielW, Bloodstar and all the others I am learning from are seeing something, I always assume it's me that hasn't got it yet! http://i.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/icons/smile.gif

Looks like snow on both sides of the Atlantic this weekend...


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: ltpat228]
      #63921 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:48 AM

Quote:

Tomorrow being Thanksgiving in America, most weather stations, news, etc. have been showing all the snow in the US and barely mentioning any possible tropical activities.




Dave-

I didn't mean to upset you. I was saying that an invest way out in the Atlantic is in the scope of things not important to someone in New York who is stuck in an airport or on the road because of weather conditions.

When Hurricane Wilma hit and our phones and electric were out for a week I had people in Georgia complaining they couldn't get a hold of us. They didn't have a clue as to what was going on, nor did they care.

If 95L turns into Delta and does a bee line to the US, some will wake up; if it doesn't aim for the US to 99.5% of the population it's a footnote.

By the way, our local weather is covering it.


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Rabbit
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63923 - Wed Nov 23 2005 11:22 AM

the local weather offices are not in control of monitoring hurricane activity, the NHC is

This system looks nearly identical to Peter in 2003, which as far as i am concerned was a hurricane

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 09:48 PM)


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ltpat228
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63924 - Wed Nov 23 2005 11:34 AM

I gather intel from many sources (including some of these posts) as I'm a Floridian and literally, have almost had my fill of hurricanes in my state. My entire family lives in various cities within my state and if a 'cane doesn't affect me directly, it almost always goes near another family member's town.
Last year was the real kicker with Frances and Jeanne's eyes going directly over where I live on the ocean. We suffered massive devastation and to this day, I am still helping clean and rebuild my community. I quit my long-time profession after Jeanne enabling me to hop out in to the streets and attempt to put our homes back together.
I have never known a more rewarding phase in my life.
I fully am aware that several weather hobbyists thoroughly enjoy prediciting what course Mother Nature will take as well as interacting with other hobbyists. In some posts I am observing almost an obsession with "needing to know."
What happens...happens.
I am grateful for all your posts yet more vitally, the opportunity to assist my community...each and every aftermath...lol.


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dave foster
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63925 - Wed Nov 23 2005 11:45 AM

Looks like the Navy site had their image pointing at the wrong place at 1137z. Confused the hell out of me

http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/95L.htm

It was still wrong on the backup site an hour ago.
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

--------------------
Dave Foster
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dave foster
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: Rabbit]
      #63926 - Wed Nov 23 2005 11:49 AM

Hey Lee

It's understandable that you'd be more interested in the weather at home than some 'feature' in the mid Atlantic.

I'm sorry if I flew off the handle, been having a bad day all round.

Dave

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HanKFranK
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: dave foster]
      #63927 - Wed Nov 23 2005 12:12 PM

there was a lot of off-topic type stuff above. of course, this is a system far into the atlantic, since it would be storm 25 if it developed, it would still have some significance climatologically--the news outlets might pick up on it as a feature, blame it on global warming somehow. ya know.
stewart wrote the last discussion on it just a little while ago--a little surprising as he usually doesn't sit on things, but he seems to be following the leader for now. if it doesn't have enough tropical characteristics at this point (i.e., frontally detached, partial convective ring, banding eye)... not sure what it'll take. since it's still embedded in a large deep layer complex, they may be deciding to use that as reason for why it isn't a tropical cyclone at this point. earlier storms that formed in this way were usually the dominant feature within such a deep layer low... this one still has a pair of upper vortmaxes and an elongated surface trough/front around the east side... while the storm 95L has pivoted seperately around to the southwest. there is a clearly some anticyclonic outflow from the convection... you can see it fanning slightly as it swirls out into the upper vortex to the east within the complex. could also be that they see the progress to the south and are waiting for it to cross warmer SST isotherms for some reason. it's on the 25C isotherm right now... roughly 77F, which isn't by any means an unprecedented temp for a storm. also noticed ssd didn't issue a number on it last cycle. can't understand why (it was t 2.5 in the prior rating).
either way, when you see a discrete feature that looks as good as vince or peter did, it makes one wonder why the hesitance. whether they operationally rate it or not, it's going into the archives as one. not sure why they're pretending it isn't a tropical storm already.
anyway, tropical storm delta is out there today. same old story.
stuff in the caribbean is still 'there', but not in a big way. the low north of panama got blasted into extinction by a strong mid level dry jet associated with the front that punched down there. it wasn't related to gamma, by the way.. gamma's swirl actually decayed into that jet as it was pushed down the nicaraguan coast. but anyway, still general low pressure in the area, which will have some ridging build aloft a tad later this week. could look a little more interesting around saturday. there's also that weak low/wind shift south of puerto rico still. if it were september/october that would be more interesting.. but this late in the year with the shear it's taking.. nah.
HF 1712z23november


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Rabbit
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Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63928 - Wed Nov 23 2005 01:57 PM

our unnamed, unclassified tropical storm is developing an eye and now has winds to 60 mph

it is still not going to be classified today for some reason


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vineyardsaker
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Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Rabbit]
      #63929 - Wed Nov 23 2005 02:59 PM

Quote:

our unnamed, unclassified tropical storm is developing an eye and now has winds to 60 mph. It is still not going to be classified today for some reason




Any idea why the NHC center might be relucrtant to name it? I

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #63930 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:24 PM

TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005
...THE 25TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 SEASON
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 40.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.


re-issue

TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005
CORRECTED TIME

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Nov 23 2005 03:27 PM)


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Margie
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #63931 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM

Because it is not quite there yet. They're probably waiting for convection to go 'round more than halfway. I expect at the 5pm.

Convection is much, much improved from this morning, is banding around the center, and is almost half-way around. And there is a lot more convection than at any time previously. Big improvement the last four hours or so.

Has been changed to NONAME on NRL site.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63932 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM

345 miles across for TS strength winds; it's huge. Thank God it's a fish spinner.

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Rabbit
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63933 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:42 PM

noname on NRL with 60mph winds will probably be SubTS or TS Delta probably

edit: now a TS, not subtropical, and it is forecast to be near hurricane intensity by this time tomorrow

side note: this is the second time since 2001 to have two November storms

Edited by Rabbit (Wed Nov 23 2005 03:48 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Rabbit]
      #63934 - Wed Nov 23 2005 03:57 PM

finally. it's already at tropical phase and probably has been for at least 12-18hr based on satellite analyses. the subtropical phase will probably be analyzed back to midday yesterday... when it's frontal association started to break down.
the forecast track is somewhat similar to peter of 2003, translated north. some of the global models are sweeping it up into or converting it into a powerful, extratropical storm west of the azores in a few days. in the meanwhile it may acquire hurricane strength during the next 24hr given the environmental conditions and vertically compact, shear-resistant structure.
some of the globals are handing in the medium range are banking this system west, such as the euro, NOGAPS, and ukmet. with the blocking pattern continuing in the north atlantic this system may get slung around out there for the coming week... even if it doesn't remain a tropical entity.
a lot of the models are showing a more favorable shear pattern over the caribbean at the end of the week. if that mess near panama remains coherent we may be having to eye things down there by next week.
HF 2057z23november


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Margie
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63935 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:04 PM

Hank don't you think the key was the convection? Convection looked positively pitiful up until a couple hours ago, regardless of what other characteristics were there.

i didn't think so. it doesn't have as much convection as a tropical-origin system, but the stuff was 'organized' and clinging to the center, so the usual shear argument was out. a lot of tropical storms have a hard time doing that under the sort of shear this thing is under. it's also being analyzed as warm core, which removes the 'it's not tropical' argument. add to that that it clearly has strong winds... i dunno, what more do you need? not calling it a tropical cyclone is just playing games with meaning, and finding idiosyncrasies to twist conventional definitions. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 23 2005 07:42 PM)


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Trekman
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63936 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:17 PM

Here is to ending the season (?) with a fish storm.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63937 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:18 PM

THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE
TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS
WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE


...Which also tips their hat as to the belated arrival of this decision to upgrade this afternoon...
At least we can take confidence that the reasons were more meteorological

However, I still believe this decision should have been made yesterday... It's ok..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Nov 23 2005 04:19 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Trekman]
      #63938 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:22 PM

Quote:

Here is to ending the season (?) with a fish storm.




...Yeah....that's the conditionally favored result that ends every season actually...You just have a very large tropical Atlantic that remains well enough unperturbed by the seasonal flux incursion of the westerlies into lower latitudes for it not to; where by, the opposites takes place near the Contiguous U.S. where troughing is "usually" expressed first and most persistently...Not always, most most seasons...
Cheers
TT


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La Nimo
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63939 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:23 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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dave foster
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: La Nimo]
      #63940 - Wed Nov 23 2005 04:39 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 09:53 PM)


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Rabbit
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: dave foster]
      #63941 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:06 PM

to anyone who is interested:

if you honestly think that something should be classified, and want to begin your track there, use the NRL satellite loops at 03z, 09z, 15z, and 21z, or as close as you can get, for the positions, and use the indicated winds--thats what ive been doing this and last season, and all but two of them were actually classified: one being the debatable subtropical depression in June near NC, the other being the tropical storm (i say that because it had a closed low and NHC indicated 45mph winds) that was in the middle of the Atlantic prior to Katrina and around the time of Jose, as well as the remaining several days of TD10 after it was classified a remnant low

subts
depression
unnamed TS (far east edge of image)

isn't that tropical storm lee in pre-development? it does have that look. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 23 2005 07:46 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: dave foster]
      #63942 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:16 PM

[(off-topic comments removed)

And so we have Delta. Amazing, simply amazing. Doesn't look like it's moving very fast. Wonder if we'll get an Epsilon.

In case you can't tell, I'm too tired of this season to give any sort of detailed analysis on Delta...come on January! Then it will be next season!

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 09:58 PM)


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Margie
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63943 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:37 PM

Floater one is in the process of being transitioned to Delta. Finally, close-up views.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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UKCloudgazer
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Margie]
      #63944 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM

Hurray. Been trying to find a good view. Fed up with Meteostat; is it out of focus or old technology or what?

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Tak
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Margie]
      #63945 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM

Good. The last IR4 loop ended about an hour and a half ago. With all the convection on the east side, it almost makes it look like it will do its starting its couunter clock turn east of 40

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Tak
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Tak]
      #63946 - Wed Nov 23 2005 05:55 PM

Floater 1 has it now. Only about 35 minutes old. To me it looks like its on its southeastern portion of the loop.

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tpratch
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: Tak]
      #63948 - Wed Nov 23 2005 06:20 PM

He's been on probation twice and saw fit to not be too beligerent for a while.

He's out of line, I happened to be on, he's gone for 2 days. If it's his time to be banned, the call will be made by admins with longer history than myself.

Back to your regularly scheduled storm discussion.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? [Re: tpratch]
      #63949 - Wed Nov 23 2005 06:59 PM


I caught the fact there was a delta on another news site a few minutes ago. Here's to the never-ending-story, may it end by November 30th. OR are we not following deadlines this year?

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 10:00 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Interesting Note [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63952 - Wed Nov 23 2005 07:46 PM

From the 7 PM EST TWD.
"MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC... AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT OR WLY SURFACE
WINDS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W... WHICH IS FAIRLY RARE."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/232336.shtml?

Fairly rare to have light or westerly winds in the Atlantic from 30W-60W? What will that do to Dr Gray's December forecast parameters? That should infer that pressures in that area are higher thatn normal...right?

Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 23 2005 07:52 PM)


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HanKFranK
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hmmm.. [Re: danielw]
      #63953 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:32 PM


there isn't much else to say about delta. it'd been looking fishy on the models for quite some time... was sort of irritating that the NHC ignored it for a good while after it showed up. now it's there, doing it's thing, not bothering anyone. the globals are showing a sort of system hand-off in the central atlantic next week that could at least be interesting (nothing to overtly suggest another system). there's a little bit of ridging showing in the caribbean on them as well.. with a nagging sort of disturbance in the sw caribbean that's usually there this time of year.
HF 0131z24november

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 10:02 PM)


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emackl
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Re: hmmm.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63954 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 PM

Happy Thanksgiving HF and the rest of you all. Thanks for this board too.

Jackie


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NONAME
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Re: hmmm.. [Re: emackl]
      #63955 - Wed Nov 23 2005 08:48 PM

Yep hankfrank Thank and I wrote you a message. Happy thanks giving great job with these forums you are trully awesome at this stuff.

By the way Delta look like it might possibly be a hurricane tommorow but who know only good well happy thanksgiving everyone and good luck shopping the day after.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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dave foster
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Re: hmmm.. [Re: NONAME]
      #63957 - Wed Nov 23 2005 09:18 PM

Delta appears to be turning through east now, and I think when it gets to NE it's probably going to take a bit of a run up towards the Azores. There's one thing for certain, it's NOT going to hit Florida. If it does get free passage northeast then in 2 to 3 days we might be giving advice to the folks in Portugal again

Anyway, y'all have a good Thanksgiving, you luck dogs - I have to wait 'til Christmas for my turkey

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: hmmm.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63958 - Wed Nov 23 2005 09:45 PM

Hard to believe we may have a hurricane on the map again... but not unbelievable.

Amazing season. Imagine we will see one more storm though where I don't know.

As for the nasty comment... You know what they say.. Can't please everyone so at least you ought to please yourself.. or something like that.

Either way HANK FRANK ... you please us a lot and I come here to read what you have to say often.

Seems online you have to adopt a very hard sort of shell to people making nasty comments about you. Sad, but true...

You make this site what it is... along with Clark and Ed and the brothers and a few others...

Will check back tomorrow to see what is what with Delta... and any E storm that might pop up but... don't think the Caribbean is all that friendly a place for the E storm to form..

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here... lurker, poster or someone who stumbled in...

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: hmmm.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #63959 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:00 PM

Well, I like to think that I add a certain enthusiasm to the mix! [Margie-like grin]

? about Delta: How is it getting any outflow when it is within a larger low? Is this why the convection was so slow to develop?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Delta Burke's direction..? [Re: Margie]
      #63960 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:19 PM

I must be an idiot yet I see this storm heading north when all the sites say it's heading SS/E.

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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
Re: Delta... why not? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63961 - Wed Nov 23 2005 10:31 PM

I was wondering if anyone has any comments or insight on the latest model runs on http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/. Specifically the GFS and UKMET models which spin off another low from Delta that looks like it has a more westerly track to start off. Any idea of the likelihood of this scenario? Since I've been storm trooping I haven't followed model runs this year very closely and don't know which ones are proving to be the most reliable in given situations. All I know is the GFDL appears to have done the best with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (at least from what I could tell) and it doesn't spawn a potential Epsilon (or Zeta if Epsilon forms in the carribean later in the week - hard to believe this year's made it this far in the Greek Alphabet). Just a point of curiosity...

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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: Delta... why not? [Re: FloydRTurbo]
      #63964 - Thu Nov 24 2005 05:25 AM

Well, looking at the NOGAPS, I would say Epsilon will be in the Mediterranean about Tuesday....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Happy thanksgiving - hope you aren't reading this but having jolly times somewhere.


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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
Re: Delta... why not? [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63967 - Thu Nov 24 2005 12:10 PM

No, it has to be a Tropical system to get named, otherwise it's just a low pressure system. But interesting to see now that the NOGAPS is now following the GFS and UKMET scenario. Happy Thanksgiving

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