Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Hey guys,
looks like Delta could actually affect the Canary Islands as a Tropical Storm on Monday. is stating that winds to gale force are likely regardless of status. I guess that means if its still a tropical system it will likely be a Tropical Storm, and therefore the first to hit the islands. Not something those holidaying there would expect. Not likely to be a major event, but a significant one to those who are watching it, and possibly to those on the ground in the Canaries too. Likelihood of landfall as a Tropical Cyclone in Morocco is less, but not totally out of the question - just take Vince and Spain as an example. Certainly be watching this one closely over the next 24 hours.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13263338.htm HAVE A WONDERFUL WINTER. SEE YA ALL IN 2006!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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They've been saying Delta will likely be by then, but forecasting warnings of gale force winds regardless.
This must have been something to ride out (from the discussion):
SHIP VQIB9 REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. THE SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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I find it amazing how Delta has had this strong a resurgance today. Wow.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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HanKFranK
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the surface obs at least confirm the satellite estimates from earlier... suggest they were low if anything. this kind of quality control check suggests that the intensity estimates have been low all along, and that delta was quite possibly a hurricane for a while this morning and back on friday. can't think any precedent for a post-analysis upgrade of one of these late season storms like that, so it isn't likely and all that would do is pad the season numbers a little more anyway. the storm's profile is already deteriorating and it will likely be within the next three advisory cycles.
the broad low long forecast by models is coalescing west of the speeding, transitioning delta. some of the model profiles are also showing warming relative to the environment. however, overall the feature appears quite broad on the globals. it also appears that it will reside at a slightly higher latitude than delta hovered in during its meandering stage. it will have most of the week to wander about, but i don't think it will ever get a strong, focused, convective center or make much headway in transition. global models aren't showing much else in the realm of tropical activity--early december should look typically quiet. things are unlikely to get interesting during the winter unless some very strong blocking begins to come into play.
by the way, if you haven't posted a 2006 best guess and are interested, head over to the forum and put 'er up.
HF 2334z27november
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Clark
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I dunno HF -- the cyclone phase analyses on that system west of Delta are pretty similar to what we saw forecast for Delta a week or so ago, with a shallow warm core (in layman's terms, a warm core at the low levels) gradually growing upward through time, reaching deep/symmetric warm core status for a brief period of time before the upper level warm core weakens. Delta actually followed much the same pattern as is forecast for this low pressure system and, according to the model representations, hasn't had a true tropical signature for a few days now. I'd say the chances of that system becoming at least a subtropical storm are about 50/50 -- depends on how the satellite signature evolves and whether or not they feel like padding the numbers with another system.
Nevertheless, it's probably the last system we'd have to look at for some period of time -- we're transitioning into nor'easter time of year (for those interested, we'll be transitioning our output into nor'easter/winter weather mode with the appropriate products for winter forecasting once tropical season finally ends). Have a good one, everyone...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
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there's a lot more convection flaring out there tonight than i'd expected. thing is, there are multiple vortices within the larger gyre. probably nothing doing until one decides to annex its neighbors' space. right now the surface low near 31/47 appears to have the best definition. the one southwest has better up environment. appears to be a weaker flare/trough to the east.
good grief. i didn't think we could fit another in, but it's awful frisky tonight.
HF 0548z28november
THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 30N46W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
yep, they're already watching it.
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Nov 28 2005 07:31 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yep, another one possible...
Nutty year!
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I didn't get a chance to see it, but Fox News said some researchers think there will be more storms next year. Did anyone catch it?
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tpratch
Moderator
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That would be because you heard it on Fox news. There's nothing yet suggesting that we should have increasingly worse seasons year after year. We are simply in a period of increased activity, and while it could happen, we could just as easily have only 5 named storms...
Fox news is known for being overly-sensational at every opportunity, so take anything you hear there with a few pounds of salt.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Trust me, I don't Trust fox on this (great grammer). They also kept calling Gamma a hurricane that would hit Florida like , when it was dying down. Not to mention that they always have JB on for a doomsday scenario.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Speaking of JB and Accuweather, as of this morning at 630am, Accuweather talked about Delta and other than that the tropics were quiet. First time i have read on that site that the tropics were quiet other than what is currently out there. Normally they list every single little thunderstorm they see, but not this time.
Question for the Mods - Now that hurricane season is winding down, what will we discuss on here, winter storms like Nor'easter's? Just wondering what is going to be appropriate for discussion.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Mon Nov 28 2005 02:21 PM)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Delta is France's problem now, hope their Mets aren't on strike
This will be last advisory issued on Delta by the National Hurricane Center. Future information can be found in Meteo-France Atlantique Metarea-II marine forecasts issued under WMO header fqnt50 lfpw... and in marine bulletins issued under WMO header font50 lfpw.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
there are multiple vortices within the larger gyre. probably nothing doing until one decides to annex its neighbors' space. the surface low near 31/47 appears to have the best definition
It looks this aft like it is absorbing the others, has become larger, and has become the dominant feature.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
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They did a SHIPS run of the system near 31N, 47W (Invest 96L), which steadily intensifies it to hurricane strength by 72 hours. The initial intensity was set to 35 knots (tropical storm force) in the model run, so it may go straight to Epsilon if determines that it has become a tropical or subtropical low pressure system at some point.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Steve Masters talked about this on his blog. For all those getting upset, unless something really, really weird happens it will only be a fish spinner with a slight shot at Bermuda.
Steve also think there could be another December storm in a couple of weeks, again most likely not hitting the USA. Just his opinion.
Could we see Zeta?
Also in January do they start with "A" again or stay with the Greek alphabet until June?
Edited by Lee-Delray (Mon Nov 28 2005 10:56 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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We start with "A" on January 1st.
To answer the question about on-topic discussion during the winter months: there will still be occasional threads and topics on the front page with discussion, but as always there are other forums on this site where discussion of anything -- weather-related or not -- is welcome year-round. You'll probably see some nor'easter discussion there over the course of the winter, just not on the main page.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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For those interested in Delta's effects on the Canaries below is a Metar from the airport on the east side of La Palma (at 2000z today), one of the northwestern islands in the chain:
GCLA 282000Z 28040G82KT 240V330 9999 SCT015 27/10 Q0991 NOSIG
Gusts to 94 mph!
The following are from Tenerife:
GCXO 282100Z 29058G73KT CAVOK 19/14 Q0997 NOSIG=
GCXO 282130Z 06062G75KT 9999 FEW006 16/14 Q0996 NOSIG=
GCXO 282200Z 29057G72KT 9999 DZ SCT015 16/14 Q0997 NOSIG
Note the 10 minute average of 62 knots, with gusts well into Hurricane force.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NRL now has 96L listed, and is continuing to mention it for possible development.
Hmm...NRL is also saying they're having a hardware issue that has broken their product updates.
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HanKFranK
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ssd has rated it st 1.5 for two cycles now. an earlier scatterometer pass had some unflagged 35kt vectors, so it's at least a 'gale center'. with the deep convection flaring near the center and very weak baroclinic boundaries (maybe a warm front or occlusion to the northeast?), i'm thinking this is quickly becoming a good case for a subtropical cyclone. of course, we just got done watching delta have to fight for recognition, so it may take a couple of days. perhaps 96L has what it takes, perhaps not.
HF 0859z29november
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