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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #64355 - Sat Dec 31 2005 12:34 PM

Quote:

What the non weather-bug world sees .

No more hurricanes for 2005.
Remember, the hurricane season ended the last day of November........

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: ltpat228]
      #64356 - Sat Dec 31 2005 01:03 PM

Any signs of Alberto forming in the next week or so? Or is there actually a chance we may go a few weeks with NO tropical development???

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64357 - Sat Dec 31 2005 02:40 PM

Morning all. No surprises with Zeta...it appears that Zeta is tilted vertically by the shear. The center of the LLC appears to be just exposed, but still connected to the small central area of convection which can also be seen to spin in tandem with it, just to the east. All the remaining convection is pushed to the NE, and most of the LLC is exposed. After a little WNW movement last night, it appears that Zeta is almost stationary. I think the lack of movement west has helped extend Zeta's lifetime a bit.

Last night you could see on the upper level wind diagram that the winds were diverging a bit just to the west of Zeta. This morning's discussion reads in part:

ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA.

I have a feeling that the remaining convection will go very quickly, as happened with Epsilon, as soon as the westerlies really hit, but with a strong well-organized low and mid level circulation, and continued convection being fueled by the shear, Zeta is hanging in there today.

HF--have a funny msg for you, check your PMs

* * * * * * *
Oh, and, Happy New Year, everyone! I didn't think about Dec 31st, when I coined the 2005 season "SOBR," but it is the one legitimate night of the year we can go out and tie one on and recollect (or forget, whichever one prefers) the past seven months. However I've heard from a reliable source that mets...oh well never mind.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sat Dec 31 2005 03:18 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Margie]
      #64358 - Sat Dec 31 2005 11:10 PM

zeta is clinging to the variety of life it's being alotted in the marginal, quirky late season environment. the official has been adding to the projected life of the system as it persists, though it could wink out as fast as epsilon did on december 7th-8th or hang around for days and such changes aren't very predictable given what we know about the oddball thermodynamic environments that allow these off-season types. given that the convection tends to be a little more offcenter and deeper than what epsilon had, i'd say it will have a harder time sustaining. the prediction through january 2nd looks as good as any.
anyhow, as far as there being more offseason systems... calling the season done doesn't seem to ever be right, so might as well go ahead and predict three or four offseason systems to tide us over until our the hyper active month of may 2006 arrives... as predicting things to be quiet doesn't seem to carry any weight, calling them active might have the contrary effect? 2006 appears to be set up for la nina, and quite often those years don't really get going until some time in august anyway, so it's actually quite possible (eg. 1988, 1998, 2000, with an odd june storm in 1999 and 2001).
i'll believe it when i see it, though.
HF 0410z01january


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64359 - Sun Jan 01 2006 12:54 AM

Well, Happy New Year and welcome Zeta to the first storm of 2006!

Looking at Sat images, Zeta looks almost as good again as it did last night, and far better than it looked mid-day today. Convection is strong and appears to be wrapping—albiet weakly so—the core low pressure. You can see a hole appearing right on the SW edge of the convection mass half overlaping out to sea. This is located in approximately the same location as the current estimated position on the SSD Tropical Forcast overlay. I'd say that the core is at least partially still under the convective mass, but over 50% exposed. It's amazing Zeta is hanging on as well as it is. Given it's tenacity, if there wasn't shear we could see a strengthening storm that might have hit minimal hurricane strength. As it is, the shear will continue to limit it, and eventually rip it appart. If, somehow, it manages to survive the shear, we could still see some minor strengthening in several days. I doubt it will survive the shear though, but then, given the past few months of cold water Atlantic storms, I wouldn't count on that.

--RC

P.S. - one change to the forums I'd like to see is the allowance of HTML special characters such as —, °, etc. That would make it so much easier to type out posts


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64360 - Sun Jan 01 2006 01:59 AM

Well, no matter what's going on or what happens in the future, there's one statement I can officially make -- the 2005 hurricane season is OVER. Zeta's still around, but it's 2006...'nuff said.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Clark]
      #64361 - Sun Jan 01 2006 02:24 AM

Happy new year!

Wouldn't this still be the 2005 season? (i.e. If Alberto formed right now wouldn't we be in both the 2005 and 2006 season at the same time?)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Doombot!]
      #64362 - Sun Jan 01 2006 06:47 AM

Nah,
if Alberto formed right now it would actually fall into the 2006 Season - after all it would be taking the first name on the 2006 list too. Zeta is a 2005 Season storm as it formed prior to the end of the year.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Modern Marvels [Re: Rich B]
      #64364 - Sun Jan 01 2006 08:56 AM

I'm not sure how many have seen it (or if it has been mentioned here), but the television show Modern Marvels recently had a new episode on Hurricane Tech. Based on references in the show it seems to have been produced after Beta this year.

It has some interesting talk about the long way technology has come in helping predict hurricanes. They also interview some of the NHC's staff. I'm not sure when it will run again, but they show the same episodes many times over.

If you've got TiVo this is one worth recording.

Happy New Year to all.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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eduardo sanchez
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: spain
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Doombot!]
      #64366 - Sun Jan 01 2006 09:13 AM

Happy New Year from spain! Creo que el asunto de los nombres no deja lugar a dudas; el sistema que se forme a partir de ahora es de la sesion de 2006, ya veremos que ocurre Enero, desde Junio no ha habido mes sin que se forme un sistema,pero continuamos rompiendo records y Enero quizás no quiera ser menos, pero es muy pronto para que comienze la nueva temporada.O tendremos que acostumbrarnos a 12 meses de temporada??? SALUDOS DESDE ESPAÑA, AMIGOS!!

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Clark]
      #64368 - Sun Jan 01 2006 02:09 PM

Is it just me or is Zeta "eyeing-up"? Could we have the earliest forming hurricane or record?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Doombot!]
      #64369 - Sun Jan 01 2006 03:54 PM

don't think it's developing an eye or anything. Actually had a banding type eye feature back on december 30, but that was just a function of scant convection and a dry environment more likely than not. That said, convection has bursted near the center this afternoon. NHC hasn't upped the intensity on their latest advisory, but it isn't looking any worse for the wear, and since it's stopped pushing west and is showing evidence of becoming vertically deeper.. i wouldn't be surprised if it stays stalled or starts drifting east.
just an off-the-wall note. long range GFS has been showing a rather pronounced 200mb ridge developing in the deep tropics east of the islands and migrating to over the caribbean. such a feature, if it verifies... would be somewhat anomalous and might be very interesting if a frontal tail or vorticity lobe were to tail down into it.
HF 2051z01january
note: i'll summarize the early 2006 forecasts made on here in a forum post to start of the '06 storm forum when mike or john or christine puts it up. zeta hanging around has already given us the first '06 storm activity in a really odd fashion, but it's really an '05 storm.

doofy me... it's already up. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jan 01 2006 08:43 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64370 - Sun Jan 01 2006 05:41 PM

Oh my goodness, I go away for a day and the flow from the jets has shifted and wind shear has reduced, as can definitely be seen by the appearance of outflow on the western side, expanding into the SW. And not only that, but an area of even less shear is headed for Zeta, so we could even see strengthening into a hurricane briefly, tonight. Actually...I think that's going to be very likely. And as the shear has reduced, the movement west has resumed, looks like SW.

Convection remains shallow and still hasn't been able to wrap around to the south, leaving the LLC exposed there. WV loop clearly shows much drier air to the south, and very clearly-defined boundaries, but it appears that is being pushed a little more south for the moment, and that the air wrapping into the cyclone now is going to have little more moisture. But right now there is still dry air being pulled in from the south. I expect to see the outflow continue to wrap around to the south as moister air is pulled into the cyclone from the NW.

It would really be interesting if Zeta managed to hang on long enough to be steered SW close enough for a recon.

So...I went to NRL website and what's the deal with the SSMI?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Margie]
      #64374 - Mon Jan 02 2006 08:38 PM

This morning it looked like Zeta was ready to die. Now it looks stronger than I think it ever looked. Convection is becoming more symetrical, and there is a very strong eye-like feature visible on microwave.

NRL Microwave
NRL Mosaic

IR looked good until the last couple of frames when there appeared to be some dry air intrusion in the southeast quadrant, but overall I think it's strengthening.

P.S. - now that it is 2006, when do we get the 2006 News Talkbacks forum for Zeta?

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Jan 02 2006 08:42 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64375 - Mon Jan 02 2006 09:03 PM

I didn't post here last night or today but I've been keeping up with Zeta. Here's a different point of view. Take a look and tell me what you think. It's done strengthening now and if you take a look at the WATL you'll be able to see the impact from the westerlies is beginning, and it'll be really evident by midnight or so. I think this shear has been enhancing the convection late this afternoon and early evening.

Take a look at the floater WV as well and you'll see that as the trough approached the air around Zeta became less dry. That 'electric shock' look to the convection (I don't mean the transverse banding on the outflow, but the core convection) the last couple frames is due to shear this time, not dry air intrusion.

It is the beginning of the end for the convection. However I don't have much information on how deep that trough is, or if it has weakened anywhere, and it is a possibility that with Zeta's continued slip to the south it may just survive (which is what the GFDL saw). But I think that's an outside chance. If it does, there's another area of low shear behind the trough.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Margie]
      #64376 - Mon Jan 02 2006 09:57 PM

How many times have we seen this, this season?


...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...


Amazing. Mind boggling. Fascinating. Any other adjectives?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Margie]
      #64377 - Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM

Zeta sorta looks like it's being sheltered from the worst of the shear by a weak upper-level low to its southwest, perhaps a feature that tailed off at the bottom of the trough that has been approaching it. It also appears that this trough is about to fracture, likely missing the storm until the next batch of westerlies gets to it in 24 hours or so.

Zeta's been helped by being as far south as it is. This upper low appears to be pivoting to the south and east around the southern side of the storm; if Zeta is deep enough vertically, it might be turned a bit more to the west or west-northwest for a brief period of time in response to this feature. It's probably deeper than it was a day or two ago, but still not terribly deep -- probably "moderately deep," a vague term I'm using to suggest a storm that probably extends to the 300-400mb level. If it moves further north, Zeta will meet those westerlies; even if it doesn't, the westerlies will likely get it at some point. There's a small chance that the upper low and the "sheltering" environment it seems to be providing sticks around and keeps Zeta going for the next few days, but any drastic change and the storm is done for.

It briefly displayed an eye-like feature on microwave imagery in the late afternoon hours, but that is gone now. Nevertheless, it has the appearance of a strong tropical storm on both microwave and conventional satellite imagery and was probably stronger in the late afternoon hours...but appears to have leveled off since and may have slightly weakened. I've got a hunch that the aforementioned trough that looks to be fracturing just to the west of the storm likely narrowed quite a bit in scope and actually helped contribute to the organization of the storm -- and not in weakening it as had been forecast. It has a little bit to do with the outflow and enhanced diffluence, topics Margie hinted at in her analysis. It's tough to predict such an evolution, however, and even tougher for these wildly atypical systems. The upper-low now is likely helping to maintain the cooler temperatures aloft; as a result of everything I've mentioned, I'd expect a steady-state storm for the next 24 hours or so (except for maybe any "corrections" upward in intensity) followed by slow weakening, perhaps a tad slower than the NHC forecast. Once the shear hits it, however, it should die fast.

We'll see how this all pans out, but it's hard to have a *lot* of confidence in anything but its ultimate demise right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Clark]
      #64378 - Tue Jan 03 2006 01:15 AM

This storms looks pretty good on IR and WV loops. It looks like outflow is pretty strong except to the south and southeast, and I'm seeing the hint of some banding features as well.

Almost no one has been around here, and I was out of town at the time, but was it just my imagination that for more than half a day back on the 30th this had a eye? Someone mentioned above that it was just a trick of dry air entrainment, but it looked quite symetrical, stayed pretty much center of the storm, and persisted for longer than you would expect from other causes. I believe it was at the time of the first 2 advisories that I saw it.

Does anyone know where we could find some of these images or loops to take a better look?


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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Goosus]
      #64379 - Tue Jan 03 2006 03:53 AM

Woke up this morning with Zeta looking like a storm that is thinking about becoming a hurricane. And I was sceptical about GFDL all week - looked ludicrous compared to the other models earlier in the year but now it is making them look weedy. GFDL has generally tended to be bullish, but very often right. NHC say there has been no known hurricane form in January. If Zeta does, it will be the final straw in Margie's 2005 SOBR effect.

That corner of the Atlantic certainly seems to be a breeding ground for storms just now.

Happy new year

B


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 64
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Clark]
      #64380 - Tue Jan 03 2006 04:43 AM

"AGAINST ALL ODDS," it seems as if the NHC is expecting Zeta to remain a tropical storm for perhaps 24 hours longer than they'd previously been expecting. That is to say there are currently five little cyclone symbols showing in the tropical forecast points, where before there'd seemed to have been rarely more than two or three.

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