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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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eduardo sanchez
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: spain
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 [Re: Margie]
      #64409 - Wed Jan 04 2006 06:04 PM

ADIOS ZETA!! Todo parece indicar que el fin de Zeta está, por fin, cerca; y con él, el fin de la temporada de los records, con Zeta llegó el final de la temporada 2005 que sin duda, pasará a la historia.La pregunta es ahora si la 2005 fue una "rara avis", esto es, un caso aislado, o por contra el principio de algo, está por ver; si Alberto llega pronto nos daría un indicio,aunque no definitivo, que la 2006 podría ser tan activa como 2005, pero sólo el tiempo nos dirá si lo es o no. Las predicciones estacionales de IRI Multi-Model nos inidican para los próximos seis meses, temperaturas hasta 4 grados por encima de lo normal en tierra, para las costas de Africa centro - nordoccidental , esto es, todo el area de Cabo Verde y también , aunque en menor medida para las Antillas menores, de cumplirse esto, tendríamos, casi seguro, temperaturas de la superficie del mar más cálidas de lo normal, y por tanto, un ingrediente más para que la 2006 sea temporada muy activa, pero todo está por ver. SALUDOS DESDE ESPAÑA.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 [Re: eduardo sanchez]
      #64410 - Wed Jan 04 2006 06:15 PM

Eduardo says the IRI Multi-Model suggest warmer than usual temperatures off the coast of Africa, which may contribute to 2006 being an active season.

Hmmmm...are we ready to start discussing the 2006 season? Maybe a break would be nice!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 [Re: Margie]
      #64412 - Wed Jan 04 2006 08:13 PM

It's 2006, right?

We have a tropical storm, right?

Hmmm...I think your wish was overridden by mother nature.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
[Jaws music] [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64413 - Wed Jan 04 2006 09:09 PM


Richard Dreyfuss (as Matt Hooper in Jaws), "Oh boys... I think he's come back for his noon feeding."

Don't look now, but mid-level shear has dropped and convection is just starting to flare a tiny tiny bit...

Maybe more appropriate music would be Saturday Night Fever's "Stayin' Alive."

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Margie]
      #64414 - Wed Jan 04 2006 11:13 PM

Ah, the always hilarious NHC discussions continue: "...THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY..."

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Margie]
      #64415 - Thu Jan 05 2006 02:27 AM

Nah, I think this is probably Zeta's last hurrah. There's quite the sharp trough just to its west that, while it may fracture, has a pretty strong jet coming behind it. The first sharp trough & Arctic outbreak of 2006 is about to hit the East coast over the next two days; this should help to amplify the pattern downstream and help to capture or kill this pesky tropical storm. Given how it looks now, probably the latter. Zeta may still flare some convection to the NE over the next day or so, but the final bell is about to toll on the 2005 hurricane season.

It may come close to the longevity of the 2nd Alice from 1954-55, though I feel it won't quite make it. Coincidentally enough, Alice formed a bit further west of where Zeta formed and travelled west-southwest to southwest through much of its lifetime before turning back southeast near dissipation in the eastern Caribbean. With the exception of the end game solution, the two storms aren't all that dissimilar.

Hopefully Zeta's the last one we see for awhile...this is supposed to be the off-season, after all!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 [Re: Margie]
      #64416 - Thu Jan 05 2006 04:17 AM

The recent infrared shows that darling Zeta is still a player in the tropical game.
It just ain't over till it's over gang!


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 [Re: Randrew]
      #64417 - Thu Jan 05 2006 04:25 AM

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE
A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP
OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Possibly we are seeing this flare-up already.

Drew.


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Clark]
      #64418 - Thu Jan 05 2006 04:31 AM

Naw, don't think for two seconds that this season run-on is finished. I expect to see more hybrids like Epsilon and Zeta....every month until we actually begin the hot-spot in June and then run for cover man!
Look for at least one southern hemisphere storm this year also!
It is not over and it will not be for many, many months in the future.


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Frog
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: France
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Randrew]
      #64419 - Thu Jan 05 2006 06:03 AM

I agree !!!

Maybe someone should consider extending the season... say... from vernal equinox to vernal equinox. That is, the season starts aroun March 21 and goes to the next vernal equinox.

I think it is a more "natural" way of considering things. Hurricanes and storms don't quite care whether it Dec 31st or Jan 1st.

Also, after all, it would take into account the Sun's cycle... We start counting when it crosses the Equator going north and stop when it re-crosses it coming from the south.

If this started today, we coul even get Eta, Theta and Iota in this season.

Greetings from Paris

--------------------
Nature Rules !!!
"... and crawling on the Planet's face... some insects, called the Human Race... Lost in Time, Lost in Space... and Meaning"
(The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Final Scene)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Clark]
      #64420 - Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM

She's back to TS again.

This season is like the energizer battery bunny.



Edited by Lee-Delray (Thu Jan 05 2006 10:59 AM)


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Frog]
      #64421 - Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM

Interesting thought. Thanks.
The re-thinking process that needs to be done about what we as humans think we know about tropical cyclones will take some time and effort.
During that process we just need to understand now that TC's can occur whenever they occur! Whether we like it or not!


Drew


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64422 - Thu Jan 05 2006 11:21 AM Attachment (589 downloads)

What a fighter Zeta is!

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Clark]
      #64423 - Thu Jan 05 2006 11:48 AM

Quote:

Nah, I think this is probably Zeta's last hurrah. There's quite the sharp trough just to its west that, while it may fracture, has a pretty strong jet coming behind it.



Oh, I know, and I was just being goofy...didn't mean to stir the pot.

I figured it was a flare-up of convection like before, from the trough, but I can see this trough is stronger, and, just as with Epsilon, once the serious shear hits, convection will be blown away in a flash, probably some time this afternoon. I do think the trough is fracturing though because on the cimss product you can see the winds start to diverge just west of Zeta.


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Randrew]
      #64424 - Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM

We can explain to a fair degree of accuracy and certainty why Zeta formed and how it is maintaining itself. It's in the predictability of these events -- both during and outside the actual hurricane season -- where we are still lacking. Progress is being made and getting these storms out of season is helping us in that effort.

As for extending the season, a "season" is designed to encompass the vast majority of all storms. Through our records, we have seen about 99.9% of all storms occur within the season, +/- 1 week on the ends. These systems are the exception to the rule and not storms that should be considered to extend the rule, in my opinion. While it's likely that, through history, we have seen more storms than are accounted for during these off-season months, the same holds true for during the season and the overall percentages are likely to be the same. And, to me, quite frankly, I don't think it's worth changing the season or naming protocol just for 1 out of every 1000 or so storms. Furthermore, having a list span two years would just create unnecessary confusion; there's already a little for Zeta's lifespan spanning two years. When dealing with these things, it's best to keep them as simple as possible.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Frog
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: France
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Margie]
      #64425 - Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM

"Have you ever watched one of those B-horror flicks where the monster/evil thing keeps getting supposedly done in, but returns a scene or two later no matter how dead it's supposed to be?

Don't you start wondering when the danged thing will just quit trying and wait until the sequel? Well, for those of you watching the 2005 hurricane season, you're probably starting to feel that way about how things are going. "


Do you people remember when HF posted this on November 22nd just after Delta formed ?

How right he was !!!!

But, I guess "there are no seasons any longer" ( Il n'y a plus de saisons mon cher Monsieur !!!)

--------------------
Nature Rules !!!
"... and crawling on the Planet's face... some insects, called the Human Race... Lost in Time, Lost in Space... and Meaning"
(The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Final Scene)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Frog]
      #64426 - Thu Jan 05 2006 01:57 PM

Il n'y a pas de quoi. No big deal, just a final storm for the season...except for those poor guys at NHC TPC who have to continue to work the overnight shifts!

I agree w/Clark. KISS principle is best...people don't even get the simple Cat 1 - Cat 5 warnings!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Are we there yet? [Re: Margie]
      #64427 - Thu Jan 05 2006 02:19 PM

The AP must have popped into NHC TPC early this morning. From today's news article:

...Its first incarnation as a tropical storm lasted from Dec. 30 to around 4 a.m. Thursday. Its second stint as a storm was not expected to last more than a day, because another weather system is likely to "decapitate" it with strong wind shear, hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.

"This thing has been very tenacious," he said. "It's probably its last gasp."

Zeta is only the second Atlantic storm in recorded history to survive into January, joining Hurricane Alice in 1955. After Zeta dissipates, Stewart said, forecasters will review records to determine whether it or Alice lasted longest into January.

The 2005 hurricane season officially ended Nov. 30, but hurricane specialist Jack Beven said the season is "not officially over until we write the last advisory, which will be in the next day or two."


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Are we there yet? [Re: Margie]
      #64428 - Thu Jan 05 2006 03:25 PM

Tropical Storm ZETA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT35 KNHC 052018
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006

...TENACIOUS ZETA STILL HANGING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION
REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.


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eduardo sanchez
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: spain
Re: Are we there yet? [Re: Randrew]
      #64430 - Thu Jan 05 2006 04:37 PM

The "bizantina" resistance of Zeta is prodigious, but before 72 hours we will see its end.Margie says that it is good for taking a rest before initiating the discussion of season 2006, I agree, but we can discuss on questions like when the season would have to last, I even believe that Frog is right, and that the season would have to be governed by the solar calendar.Pardon by my english.Thanks.

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