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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
2005 forecasts for the 2006 season
      #64437 - Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 PM

Late last year a bunch of folks posted their '06 forecast in the '05 forum. This thread is just to list what everybody has. Around May we'll finalize our ideas as the season draws closer and there's more substantial evidence to draw from. So look for a follow-on to this thread around May 10th or so. The ColoState guys will update in April, and you can prognosticate then if you want to, but for simplicity we'll only make final revisions right before the season starts... up until May 31st.
So anyway, here they are by date, user, and storm counts (TS/hurr/major)
nov 21 HF 14/9/4
Ed 13/8/3
nov 22 CaneTrackerInSoFl 14/8/3
Lee-Delray 14/7/3
Clark 15/9/4
rmbjoe1954 21/10/5
NONAME 17/6/3
nov 23 cycloneye 15/9/4
UKCloudgazer 18/11/5
Enrique 22/12/6
HurrFrederick79 23/10/7
nov 28 AgnesofHell 21/10/6
nov 29 Bloodstar 22/11/6
tak 18/13/6
nov 30 swimaway19 17/10/4
dec 1 firestar_1 20/8/3
dec 2 Margie 15/8/3
dec 5 EwanM 28/15/8
NewWatcher 21/14/6
CSU OFFICIAL 17/9/5
dec 6 bobbutts 38/19/8
BCFrancis 22/12/6
dec 28 RandomChaos 23/9/2
jan 4 TSR OFFICIAL 16/9/4

You can sort of see how folks got more aggressive with their numbers as the '05 season lumbered on and on. Lets hope Bob's joke extrapolation forecast is as far from the truth as 2005 was from normalcy. in the opposite direction of course.
HF 0337z06january


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 315
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: 2005 forecasts for the 2006 season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64450 - Sat Jan 07 2006 06:28 PM

I thought that I might have low balled my prediction by a little when I posted them last year. bobbutts, yo dude, 38 named storms ? With all respect, I hope your predictions are revised just like mine and other members come May when more information on the 2006 upcoming hurricane season starts. Its kinda weird, but I`m looking foward to it. See if the trend continues. My gut feeling, we at least have something similar to 2005 to look foward to. It won`t be long before trackin time comes along and we all live on CFHC again.........Enjoy the time off.....Weatherchef

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 2005 forecasts for the 2006 season [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #64821 - Tue Apr 04 2006 06:42 AM

Well, no change in April, so I stand corrected (what do these guys know that I don't? ...umm, practically everything LOL).

Still hard for me to reconcile comparing the Feb 1 and Apr 1 SST anomalies with the forecast, so I have to assume that must mean the ATL can still warm up pretty fast in early summer. Still it doesn't look like the GOM is setting up at all like last year, and that is a good thing for surge-prone areas of the northern GOM.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
By The Numbers [Re: Margie]
      #64832 - Tue Apr 04 2006 12:53 PM

Just a short statistical update of my numbers for the 2006 season:

Total Storms: 14/8/2
First Named Storm: 7/23
ENSO Analog Year: 2001
Primary Threat Areas: Southern Caribbean; east Florida; eastern Carolinas; southern New England.
Distribution: July - 1; August - 3; September - 6; October - 3; November - 1.

As already noted, Dr Gray's numbers for April are unchanged (17/9/5). TSR issues their updated forecast later today.
Cheers,
ED


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Evil Jeremy
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: 2005 forecasts for the 2006 season [Re: Margie]
      #64836 - Tue Apr 04 2006 04:57 PM

i might be new, but that doesnt mean that i dont know about hurricanes! anyways, here are my numbers:

19 Tropical Storms} 1 subtropical
10 Hurricanes
6 Major
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think that there will be 1 Hurricane (Cat 1-2) that will strike the NE. Sometime before August 31, a cat 1-2 will strike the Palm Beach area, followed by another storm having a close encounter with the S. Florida west coast in september- october before going up towards the panhandle. I think that at least 2 Tropical Storms will enter the Gulf of Mexico. sometime, another Major could strike the S. Carolina/ Georgia border line. i will be updating this soon.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: By The Numbers [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #64858 - Thu Apr 06 2006 06:46 PM

Hears my updated numbers:
Total storms:21/15/6
First named storm:6/10
Highest threat areas:se caribbean,fl keys up to west palm,the carolinas and southern ne.
June-2 July-4 August-4 Sept-6 Oct-3 Nov-2

And remember this one....SE Floida late July

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: By The Numbers [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64936 - Wed Apr 12 2006 12:25 PM

Hey all,

I'm baaaccck. Ahhh a nice 5 month break was nice, wasn't it?

OKAY...here goes

21/11/5...i'm an odd fellow so my numbers are all going to be odd.
First Named Storm: July 6
Ed-I'm one of those people who think mild winter, milder SST's so I think we start a little earlier this year. Lets just hope they don't skyrocket.

I agree with others, eastern florida is due this year...Thankfully, I don't see as many GOM's happening. If there's a better place to land, it's not in the GOM even though the army corps SAY that the levees in N.O. will be as good as pre Katrina as of June 1.

P.S. Lets keep it light this season ok? Some of the unfriendly remarks last year were uncalled for. We're all here as hobbyists with opinions so lets all respect everyone elses opinions. Lets make forecasts...not war.

P.P.S Also, lets leave the factless baseless conjecture to "Accu"weather this year. Besides, everyone knows they watch our forums when its crunchtime.


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