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Off-Topic >> Comedy Shop

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
2006 predictions
      #65091 - Fri May 05 2006 07:59 PM

From a May 5th MarketWatch article:

"Speaking to a room packed with energy executives in Houston, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi predicted that one tropical storm and five hurricanes -- at least three at Category 3 or worse -- will slam into the nation's shores between now and late November, the unofficial end of the season.

Bastardi, the weather service's chief hurricane tracker, accurately predicted last August that New Orleans would bear the brunt of Hurricane Katrina as it grew to a top-level Category 5 storm."

Hopefully someone from MarketWatch will eventually find this forum, this post, and make the connection as to why it was in the humor section.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 2006 predictions [Re: Margie]
      #65092 - Fri May 05 2006 10:02 PM

Bastardi called it? Wow. Just wow. AccuWeather was consistently behind the NHC in moving their forecast to New Orleans -- then had the gall of saying that they called it before the NHC!

If those energy companies are using AccuWx to base their decisions for the coming months, they're setting themselves up for disappointment. I'm not saying we won't see a lot of storms making landfall this year; we very well might. There's just little to no skill in such forecasts now other than saying "well, it kinda happened in 2004 and 2005, so I guess it'll happen in 2006."

So yeah, the humor forum is definitely a good spot for this!

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 2006 predictions [Re: Clark]
      #65093 - Fri May 05 2006 10:24 PM

I know, I remember! It was so funny because I had just started doing this in July and I saw that every storm that came down the pike he was saying NOLA, NOLA...then when Kat came, he didn't say anything LOL. I think he finally felt like the boy who cried wolf, unfortunately picked the wrong storm to stop with the NOLA disaster scenario.

But it wasn't just that I noticed about the story -- it is hard enough to predict numbers for the coming season, but no tools exist to go beyond that and predict the number of landfalling storms.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 2006 predictions [Re: Margie]
      #65107 - Tue May 09 2006 05:31 PM

Conspiracy theorist that I am, do you think that the CSI of hurricanes predictors shut him up when it was time for the N. O. Storm so, that no one would get in trouble for not being prepared?

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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