MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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6AM June 10th
The system has not formed overnight, and has basically held it's organization. Conditions are still favorable for development and if it develops, sometime today would be most likely. A recon flight is scheduled for later today.
See Clark's blog below for more information.
6PM June 9th
A surface low is beginning to form, and condititions are improving in the area, a Tropical Depression may form tonight or early tomorrow. Folks along Cuba, and the Southeastern Gulf, including Florida, will want to keep an eye on this system -- effects would be felt around Monday to Tuesday along the US. The model is agressively develpoing the system, but it is still too early to say what will occur.
Most of the weather will be on the east side of the system, so it could bring a good soaking to parts of Florida. The further east the system stays, the more likely it won't encounter shear.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------------*------]
10AM June 9th Update
This morning the spread of models have shifted mostly northward for the next 2-3 days. Most runs are showing a weak tropical system crossing north Florida around next Tuesday. Some models, like the and European do not track a very coherent system, but really blow it up in a baroclinic (non tropical) drive up the east coast.
Organization likely will not happen today (too close to land), but by tomorrow the upper vorticity maximim currently northeast of the system will have dropped further southwest and begun breaking off from the trough, which will likely weaken and lift away over the next few days. Then some ridging should build in... Depending on how this scenario plays out, is dependent on where the system chooses to consolidate, it could get into just the right place and develop a good outflow jet streak around its northern semicircle.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-------------]
Regardless, it looks like parts of Florida may be in for a drought buster type of rain going into next week. And dependent on how it plays out, whether it pumps the ridge and causes the pattern to amplify some, it could also make a run up the east coast, transitioning into another noreaster.
This is not a sure bet, however, as some oddball model runs (nam) keep insisting on a more northwesterly movement. This isn't impossible, but as time passes it seems to be becoming increasingly unlikely. The system appears to be setting up show east of the Yucatan, and that s where tt will likely stay.
(Update source from Hank)
Original Update
There is a broad surface low pressure system in the western Caribbean, near Belize in Central America that may be worth watching for persistence over the next few days.
This is an area that has seen storms form in June before, however, the area around it is only marginally there to sustain or grow a system, so there is doubt it will become much if it does develop. It is also close to land, and will give Central America a good soaking.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*--------------]
Recon flights are tentatively scheduled in case something does develop.
It is much too early to speculate on where this system may go, or even if it survives or develops. It could go westward toward Mexico/Texas, or it could stick to a more northerly track and head for Florida. Too early to tell, though, and we'll certainly watch it into the weekend.
Currently it has no discernible center, and just as many factors working against it as for it. However, it is likely to enter the Gulf, so its something to watch.
More to come...
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Western tip of Cuba radar
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
90L:
Animated Plot
Animated Model Plot of 90L
Model Plot of 90L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Initial plots are available for Invest 90L. At least on this initial run...3 out of 4 of the models seem to be eyeing the west coast of FL. But even there, the agreement between those 3 models looks weak to me.
Link: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/shared-blogs/palmbeach/storm/media/storm_90.gif
~Sorry...Didn't see you had a link up already. Just caught it. Sorry about that.
Edited by dem05 (Thu Jun 08 2006 01:11 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Viewing the available satellite data I would side with HF in the last thread and think the EPAC system is going to go before the WCarib. 90L...Models have been saying all week that the moisture trail over the WCarrib would push northward however.
Is this the same little vortex that was off Nicarogua earlier this week?
I think 3/10 is a good estimat on develop of a cyclone. EPAC rates about 6/10 IMO.
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doug
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Focus is still on the EPac as of right now. There is a weak center of circulation over the Yucatan Peninsula right now, though that impressive convective flare-up to its west is only marginally associated with that feature. Instead, it is associated with upper-level diffluence as the upper-level trough over the SE US slides a bit further southward. WV imagery indicates a developing upper-level low along that trough in the vicinity of the convection; that's certainly not favorable for any sort of tropical development. Another surge of dry air is sliding through the central Gulf of Mexico now and is encroaching upon the Bay of Campeche. Simply put, I don't think anything tropical can get going in that sort of environment. Things can change, however, and we'll watch it.
The feature in the EPac isn't as impressive in terms of a convective flare-up right now, but it does have a center of circulation -- see http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas64.png -- and the flow through the pass in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is only adding to the circulation along the west side of the feature. What convection is there is much more organized than in the Atlantic and the shear is not nearly as large of a factor. My thinking as of now is that something there develops but doesn't move a whole lot over the next few days, while nothing significant gets going in the Atlantic basin for now. Might get an inverted trough or a very weak area of low pressure sliding into the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf, but bona fide tropical development? Ehhh...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Thanks for the password help..fixed now but lost a half-way intelligent question.
Clark or anyone...12z shows a split now around 130 hrs of the energy in W Carib once it's in the Gulf. Stronger part to LA & some rain to TX/Mx with other part. This scenario would fit with the bullishness of the & what the has been want to do correct? Possible?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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one interesting note with this system is most of the models seem to have it stalled out for about 72 hours near southern Belize
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Hot off the press , DuPont and Alcoa designed panels for buildings that they claim will withstand debris flying up to 130mph.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Sorry if this is off-topic, but in response to Margie's post:
I think that article is a bit unclear. Do the panels supposedly withstand debris to 130 mph and wind to 130 mph, or just debris (without stating a specific speed of the flying debris) and wind to 130 mph? The language: "designed to withstand wind-borne debris and wind speeds up to 130 miles per hour . . . ." Unclear if "up to 130 mph" modifies only wind speeds or both windspeeds and wind-borne debris.
Have you read anything else to clear that up? If not, I'd like to see more information before I get too excited about that claim. I believe most shutters and impact-resistant glass can withstand higher windspeeds than speeds of flying debris (and some may already be rated to 130 mph gusts, or something close to it; but not to debris at that speed). That makes sense, although many people apparently were surprised to learn that fact during last year's hurricane season (e.g., many who bought impact-resistant windows and were suprised to learn that rating to a certain windspeed did not equate to rating for debris flying at that same speed; thus, a 130 mph gust may not break a window or put a hole in a shutter, but debris hurled at a lower speed may break the same window or put a hole in the same shutter).
Fingers crossed for a season without much devastation.
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
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Following link might clarify for you. These are architectural panels designed to be permanently attached to the exterior of commercial buildings. Examples of Kevlar and kevlar like materials designed for home use are hurricane screens and DuPont's StormRoom. Screens protect from wind borne debris while the StormRoom is basically an in house bunker that will withstand Cat 5 winds (great for an inland area home where storm surge isn't a worry).
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060608/phth020.html?.v=55
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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Local mets here in Austin are pointing to clouds in between Cuba and the Yucatan Penninsula and saying gravely
"We need to keep an eye on this for next week"
:eyeroll:
Anyone else seeing that kinda stuff from the local people?
I mean... it's not even an invest yet, right? 
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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I think it was established as Invest 90L.
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doug
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Umm yes it is... Read the thread b4 this one. It's Invest 90L
Invest 90L
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Thanks CoalCracker. For anyone interested, I think that second article still is at best ambiguous regarding what exactly the proposed new panels will be able to withstand. I hope DuPont's and Alcoa's official statements clear that potential ambiguity up; they certainly might, or they may already have done so but those articles may not have cited the relevant comments. And I also hope that consumers look carefully at performance ratings & representations before making decisions about what type of protection to buy for windows, doors, etc.
I believe the only objective test mentioned in that article is "the 'large missile impact test,' involving a 9-pound 2X4 timber traveling at 50 feet per second, as stipulated by the Miami-Dade Building Code."
If my calculations are correct, that is a 9-pound object traveling at approximately 34.09 mph . Impressive, certainly, but 34.09 mph is far from an object traveling 130 mph.
I have no idea how that test translates to how fast a small object would travel if hurled by 130 mph winds, or whether a panel which passes that test would be able to withstand the impact of an object hurled by 130 mph winds.
The other notable comment: "It is a durable architectural panel system designed to withstand wind-borne debris and wind speeds common in hurricanes up to a Category 3 storm. (Category 3 hurricanes have wind speeds up to 130 mph.)" That's pretty vague about what speed of debris it's designed to protect against. The article does not state that it will protect against objects traveling up to 130 mph, or even that it is designed to protect against winds (let alone debris) at the high-end of Cat 3, only that it is designed to protect against debris and wind speeds "common" in Cat 3 storms. "Common" could mean a lot of things. Again, I hope that has been cleared up or will be cleared up before consumers make important decisions about what protection to buy.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Thu Jun 08 2006 04:41 PM)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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TY ... I obviously missed that...
First invest of the 2006 Atlantic season?
I still think Austin mets are a little paranoid tho Or something.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I thought that must be a typo, and did some quick internet research. That large impact missile test mentioned...is for windows and skylights (!).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Jun 08 2006 07:25 PM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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The 205 pm tropical discussion mentions for the first time a wave ("probably one of the most impressive waves so far this early season") at approximately 19 W, south of 14 N. I wonder if that is the wave "out in the ether" HankFrank discussed and which he noted the showed entering the Caribbean on approximately the 13th in tandem with an upper level high. The timing would be more or less right, maybe a day or so off. Now that the wave is apparent - and assuming that's the same one - it'll be interesting to see what the or other models do with it, e.g. if the upper level high is predicted to be in the same general area when it is predicted to be entering the Caribbean. And, of course, I'm curious what HankFrank (or anyone else) has to say about it. I realize anything would be very low-confidence/speculative and (thankfully) unlikely at this point, but it'll be interesting if that turns out to the be feature HF pointed out a few days ago as something possibly worth watching down the road.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Interesting - it does appear to be the test DuPont and Alcoa performed or had someone else perform. At least one of those articles provided links to some Alcoa or DuPont literature regarding the panels, and there is a reference to that test. (I believe that the company literature referred to the fact that the test would be performed in the future; if the articles are correct, they were written after the test actually was performed.) There is company-distributed literature available for consumers on one of the company's websites.
Edit: page 2 of the brochure at Alcoa info states: "The Miami-Dade Building Code stipulates that panel systems withstand the impact of a 9-pound 2x4 timber traveling at 50 feet per second." (Emphasis added). I don't have the knowledge to even speculate whether that is consistent with Margie's research.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Thu Jun 08 2006 05:21 PM)
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00cj
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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 I was just going to post these, even though they arent much to look at now. But if something developes they'll be here
Cancun Radar
Western tip of Cuba radar
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Models have caught onto this the past few days. I think it will evenually develop. The models have had it going anywhere from Western Louisiana to Panama City, FL. It's going to be interesting. The longer that mess sits there, the better chance it's going to have to develop.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
well it looks like we have our first contender for Alberto this year. The says that the low centre is inland over the eastern Yucatan, which incidentally is where most forecast models predicted it to be. However, it is forecast to move off to the north or northwest generally, and into the GOM. Given the convective activity associated with the disturbance at present it could have a shot if the centre moved offshore. The question is whether it can hold on to the convection until such time as it moves offshore. The one thing it has got going for it is persistence, and it has been around for a few days now! Certainly worth watching over the next few days...
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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