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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Bradenton Conditions & Excellent Radar Program [Re: scottsvb]
      #66400 - Mon Jun 12 2006 04:33 AM

I've been watching that NE low level swirl taking over as the primary LLC tonight as well .. and agree with you. It is nicely located under some of the deepest convection. Chance for strengthening continues overnight. Should trend persist - and relative shear slacken - I can see 60mph by afternoon.

Be interesting what 5am has to say...


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Bradenton Conditions & Excellent Radar Program [Re: cieldumort]
      #66401 - Mon Jun 12 2006 04:57 AM

Alberto strengthens...Tropical Storm Warning issued...
At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: cieldumort]
      #66402 - Mon Jun 12 2006 04:59 AM

"..Alberto strengthens...Tropical Storm Warning issued...

At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Englewood to
Bonita Beach.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 87.2 west or about 275
miles...445 km...south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida and about
320 miles...515 km...southwest of Cedar Key Florida.


Alberto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr
...And a turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370
km...to the northeast and southeast of the center. The large extent
of tropical storm force winds means that these winds will be felt
along the coast well in advance of the arrival of the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...can be expected over a large portion of the warning area."

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



Edited by swimaway19 (Mon Jun 12 2006 05:00 AM)


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: swimaway19]
      #66403 - Mon Jun 12 2006 05:34 AM

It appears to me that the center is farther northeast than the forecast center (Trp Pts)...and a lot of green is starting to show up on the enhanced IR...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Geoff]
      #66404 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:02 AM

What happened to the AVN loop? It won't load for me. I got the visible (overnight) loop to load, but not the AVN. Haven't tried the link you posted, but that's different than the AVN I was using yesterday.

Maybe I'm just impatient.

Edit: Looking at the enhanced loop you provided.... the orientation of Alberto appears MUCH better now than last night. Not good. Also, I still see alot of computer models that are putting Alberto into the panhandle, well west of the forecast track. Not good deaux.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Jun 12 2006 06:07 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Hugh]
      #66405 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:19 AM

WOW.....nice convection burst and the center has almost snuck under it... its on the edge from what i can tell and shear looks to have weakened just enough that i think will allow it to better organize for a few more hours... RSO was asked for by NHC.... so when the sun comes up... we should see the some nice shots today!!!!


been looking at water vapor.... looks like in the last few frames... the burst is being pushed now to the NE... look at last few frames

water vapor

don't think the center will be able to hold on to it?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 12 2006 06:25 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66406 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:23 AM

RSO?

Yeah, if I could get the satellite images to update properly, I'd agree I'm sure (grumble).

So much for splitsville scenarios.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Hugh]
      #66407 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:26 AM

so who wants to be nice and give me the run down on what happned over night

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #66408 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:32 AM

Rundown of overnight:
Alberto woke up!

Looks like an intensification phase is underway, although the NHC says it will be limited. T.S. Warnings are posted. The storm is getting closer.

I knew it was a mistake to reboot my laptop.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Hugh]
      #66409 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:37 AM

did some quick check... cloud tops int that burst got cold as -85 to -90... and are around -85 now.... Hugh- avn is down on GOM... floater one is working though. i think the shear is starting to push back in... I didn't buy into the GOM water temps and depth being that bad... look what happpend with that..... we got a very nice blow up... i think if there was no shear... we could have a very strong TS on our hands heading into a region that hasn't seen a landfalling TS in a long time.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66411 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:39 AM

I finally got AVN to load, sort of (image is a bit behind, 0945, but it's always behind for me it seems). If the shear continues to subside... this thing could strengthen RAPIDLY.... could, but may also weaken again if the shear picks back up. So far it seems to have a mind of its own.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 5 AM Advisory (4 CDT) [Re: Hugh]
      #66412 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:44 AM

new thread up now that warning is out.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Alberto's anticipated landfall? [Re: Clark]
      #66627 - Mon Jun 12 2006 04:28 PM

I haven't had time to look at much today, but Alberto did exactly that; a new center developed under the convection, and if you look carefully, you can still see the old LLC well displaced from convection.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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