Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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This one: GOES ANIMATED SATELLITE
Also: I have to agree with Scott's latest post. It almost appears as if Alberto's LLC is getting better organized.
One last thing: if you live in Polk county, watch for your weather to change in the next 15-20 minutes. We are in for some heavy duty rain. They are also scrolling on the bottom of BayNews 9 to "use caution on Bay area bridges due to breezy conditions and water spray."
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thomas Giella
Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 25
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I didn't intend to appear to downplay T.S. Alberto's ultimate impact, I was simply speaking from a standpoint of relative to what we will potentially be facing later in the season. On my website at http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm I have posted within the 10:30 am EDT advisory the following:
"Beginning today deep tropical moisture and numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms should engulf the whole of peninsular Florida, with torrential rainfall totals of 4-8" and attendant localized urban flooding "possibly" occurring into Tuesday 06/13/06. Tornadoes will also be a minor to moderate threat due to increasing helicity values."
By the way I had a fast moving broken line of squally thunderstorms move through my area in Lakeland beginning at approximately 1:49 pm. Though I only measured 0.14" of rainfall I did see a wind gust of 30 mph.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
flycylone@tampabay.rr.com
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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If you look at this map, notice how the dry air is receding to the west and how this is allowing the moisture to move further northward.
WV Loop
This may be why some of the models are shifting further northward; however, I really don't think it's going to go THAT much further north.
For those of you talking about watches/warnings, I would expect that they will be issued at either 5pm or 11pm advisory. The NWS mentioned in their latest forecast that we could see up to 8" of rain, more in other areas. That's a lot of rain, especially since it has been so dry and it will take a while for the moisture to be absorbed by the ground.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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A well organized LLC while beautiful on satellite, is just that beautiful; it too is harmless. It may take several days for the storm to wind down, but with no convection, no dynamics vertically, it will dissipate. You also have to keep in mind the developing synoptic situation that is evolving along the East Coast, and while a stationary front is draped across the area, it is likely a more dynamic (extratropical) low will deepen off the Carolina coast in H+24 to H+36 in response to the deepening trough along the East Coast. Currently at 200 and 300 mbs, I see no evidence Alberto can survive it's environment as an intact system. Temperatures in the GOM are not that warm; though can support some tropical activity. SSTs are now just at 80.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
And here comes possible TD #2. It's heading for the Caribbean which will likely be favorable for development in the coming week. This is a well organized tropical wave.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 365
Loc: USA
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It has acutally stayed together from off the coast of Africa.
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rugrats4
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Panama City, Florida
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Hello All
I'm a long time lurker on this board (at least 3 years!), finally decided to register. I just wanted to take the time to thank you for all the insightfull information provided throughout the years. It has helped me many times!
As for Alberto.......I am sooooo jealous of all that rain, here in the Florida Panhandle we need it desperately.
Once again....wonderful board, best on the web (and I know I "lurk" on many!)
Have a good weekend and to all those on the west coast...enjoy the moisture!
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Henri
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
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"...it leads me to the comment that the media should never rule anything out with a storm until it has died out completely. Too many times down here in south florida the local meteorologists will bring the information to the public in the early stages of storms and say it will not have any impact on south florida, then something odd happens or something that wasnt predicted and then it has an impact on the area and the weathermen back track and explain why it is now going to affect an area. with everything we have seen with storms over they years i would think that the local weathermen would be the first people telling the general public not to take eyes off a storm until it is gone for good regardless of where it is at a certain point in time and the direction it is traveling. i just see too many times that they say it will have no impact on an area early in the forecast and then something happens to where it does have an affect later in the period or against all odds..."
I second that emotion! In Miami I remember the Friday 10 pm news on the Fox station before Monday's 3 AM landfall of Hurricane Andrew. The weather bimbos assured us that Andrew was not going to be a problem so "have a good time this weekend and check back with us Monday". Many folks greeted Monday's sunrise without TV's or houses to have them in. The station had the gall to brag about their storm coverage in the year to follow. I think they should have been charged with manslaughter and relieved of their broadcast license.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
And here comes possible TD #2. It's heading for the Caribbean which will likely be favorable for development in the coming week. This is a well organized tropical wave.
Any small hope we had of a closer to normal season are fading fast.I don't like to see this much activity this early.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I think the confusing thing here is the fact that all of the weather from TS Alberto is to the east of the center of the LLC, but I am still keeping in mind where the Recon found the winds that upgraded to a TS in the first place. Very weird storm.
Speaking of Recon, has their been any new reports from them today?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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score42288
Unregistered
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"future TD #2"
that wave will have to hold it act together ALL the way to the western Carribean, because climatalogy shows no hurricanes/tropical storms have developed in the eastern carribean for the past 100 yrs.
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alberto fan
Unregistered
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Looks like the original LLC is just to the north of the Yucatan, drifting SW and re-firing nicely. The secondary LLC looks to be still under the Florida convection some 300 miles to the NE of the original. Could we be looking at two separate storms here, moving in opposite directions??
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Really? I think not. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/DENNIS/track.gif
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Dennis formed almost a month later than now, though. Alberto is helping to pump up the subtropical ridge over the Caribbean, but that feature's gotta get to the central Carib. intact to have a shot. Any development is likely a few days away and, still, not terribly likely. Worth watching, though.
As for the question of what would cause it to move NE/ENE -- the flow at upper levels is largely heading toward that direction as associated with a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. If Alberto were to deepen and become a more vertically coherent storm, it'd likely start to feel those winds more and head in that direction. As is, however, the convection wants to develop in the flow aloft well to the east of the center, while convection near/over the center is being suppressed by those upper winds and the dry air. Whether that changes overnight is still to be determined.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Jenny
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
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It looks as if Alberto is starting to get his act together
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Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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score42288
Unregistered
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Quote:
Really? I think not. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/DENNIS/track.gif
I am talking about the month of JUNE
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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OK, I get you now. But, the way things have been the last couple years, climatology doesn't mean much.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
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rember guys the chat room is alawys open for discussion of alberto
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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It actually looks like Alberto might be trying to fire off some convection in the bands just to the SW of the LLCC. This could be due, in part, to the gradual moistening of the surrounding air, allowing convection to occur more easily. Also, the centre seems to still be in a state of flux, with the main circulation north of the Yucatan, and a second circulation centre to its NNE, having emerged from the edge of the convective mass to the east of the cyclone.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks, Rich. I was wondering about that.
I also noticed a convective burst near the 1 o'clock position. It's not being sheared at this time.
Nearly vertical growth. Then again, it might not have reached the shear line.
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