Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Invest93L Much Better Organized Tonight Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 24 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3199 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #66238 - Sun Jun 11 2006 02:52 PM

This one: GOES ANIMATED SATELLITE

Also: I have to agree with Scott's latest post. It almost appears as if Alberto's LLC is getting better organized.

One last thing: if you live in Polk county, watch for your weather to change in the next 15-20 minutes. We are in for some heavy duty rain. They are also scrolling on the bottom of BayNews 9 to "use caution on Bay area bridges due to breezy conditions and water spray."

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thomas Giella
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 25
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: MikeC]
      #66239 - Sun Jun 11 2006 02:56 PM

I didn't intend to appear to downplay T.S. Alberto's ultimate impact, I was simply speaking from a standpoint of relative to what we will potentially be facing later in the season. On my website at http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm I have posted within the 10:30 am EDT advisory the following:

"Beginning today deep tropical moisture and numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms should engulf the whole of peninsular Florida, with torrential rainfall totals of 4-8" and attendant localized urban flooding "possibly" occurring into Tuesday 06/13/06. Tornadoes will also be a minor to moderate threat due to increasing helicity values."

By the way I had a fast moving broken line of squally thunderstorms move through my area in Lakeland beginning at approximately 1:49 pm. Though I only measured 0.14" of rainfall I did see a wind gust of 30 mph.

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
flycylone@tampabay.rr.com

Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
WV Loop from NHC [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66240 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:07 PM

If you look at this map, notice how the dry air is receding to the west and how this is allowing the moisture to move further northward.

WV Loop

This may be why some of the models are shifting further northward; however, I really don't think it's going to go THAT much further north.

For those of you talking about watches/warnings, I would expect that they will be issued at either 5pm or 11pm advisory. The NWS mentioned in their latest forecast that we could see up to 8" of rain, more in other areas. That's a lot of rain, especially since it has been so dry and it will take a while for the moisture to be absorbed by the ground.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66241 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:08 PM

A well organized LLC while beautiful on satellite, is just that beautiful; it too is harmless. It may take several days for the storm to wind down, but with no convection, no dynamics vertically, it will dissipate. You also have to keep in mind the developing synoptic situation that is evolving along the East Coast, and while a stationary front is draped across the area, it is likely a more dynamic (extratropical) low will deepen off the Carolina coast in H+24 to H+36 in response to the deepening trough along the East Coast. Currently at 200 and 300 mbs, I see no evidence Alberto can survive it's environment as an intact system. Temperatures in the GOM are not that warm; though can support some tropical activity. SSTs are now just at 80.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: WV Loop from NHC [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66242 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:11 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

And here comes possible TD #2. It's heading for the Caribbean which will likely be favorable for development in the coming week. This is a well organized tropical wave.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: WV Loop from NHC [Re: SirCane]
      #66243 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:14 PM

It has acutally stayed together from off the coast of Africa.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rugrats4
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Panama City, Florida
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: poolwatcher]
      #66244 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:14 PM

Hello All

I'm a long time lurker on this board (at least 3 years!), finally decided to register. I just wanted to take the time to thank you for all the insightfull information provided throughout the years. It has helped me many times!

As for Alberto.......I am sooooo jealous of all that rain, here in the Florida Panhandle we need it desperately.

Once again....wonderful board, best on the web (and I know I "lurk" on many!)

Have a good weekend and to all those on the west coast...enjoy the moisture!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Henri
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: early storm projections [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #66245 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:14 PM

"...it leads me to the comment that the media should never rule anything out with a storm until it has died out completely. Too many times down here in south florida the local meteorologists will bring the information to the public in the early stages of storms and say it will not have any impact on south florida, then something odd happens or something that wasnt predicted and then it has an impact on the area and the weathermen back track and explain why it is now going to affect an area. with everything we have seen with storms over they years i would think that the local weathermen would be the first people telling the general public not to take eyes off a storm until it is gone for good regardless of where it is at a certain point in time and the direction it is traveling. i just see too many times that they say it will have no impact on an area early in the forecast and then something happens to where it does have an affect later in the period or against all odds..."

I second that emotion! In Miami I remember the Friday 10 pm news on the Fox station before Monday's 3 AM landfall of Hurricane Andrew. The weather bimbos assured us that Andrew was not going to be a problem so "have a good time this weekend and check back with us Monday". Many folks greeted Monday's sunrise without TV's or houses to have them in. The station had the gall to brag about their storm coverage in the year to follow. I think they should have been charged with manslaughter and relieved of their broadcast license.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: WV Loop from NHC [Re: SirCane]
      #66246 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:17 PM

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

And here comes possible TD #2. It's heading for the Caribbean which will likely be favorable for development in the coming week. This is a well organized tropical wave.



Any small hope we had of a closer to normal season are fading fast.I don't like to see this much activity this early.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: berrywr]
      #66247 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:20 PM

I think the confusing thing here is the fact that all of the weather from TS Alberto is to the east of the center of the LLC, but I am still keeping in mind where the Recon found the winds that upgraded to a TS in the first place. Very weird storm.

Speaking of Recon, has their been any new reports from them today?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
score42288
Unregistered




Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66248 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:21 PM

"future TD #2"
that wave will have to hold it act together ALL the way to the western Carribean, because climatalogy shows no hurricanes/tropical storms have developed in the eastern carribean for the past 100 yrs.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
alberto fan
Unregistered




Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #66249 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:31 PM

Looks like the original LLC is just to the north of the Yucatan, drifting SW and re-firing nicely. The secondary LLC looks to be still under the Florida convection some 300 miles to the NE of the original. Could we be looking at two separate storms here, moving in opposite directions??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: score42288]
      #66250 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:31 PM

Really? I think not. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/DENNIS/track.gif

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: SirCane]
      #66251 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:36 PM

Dennis formed almost a month later than now, though. Alberto is helping to pump up the subtropical ridge over the Caribbean, but that feature's gotta get to the central Carib. intact to have a shot. Any development is likely a few days away and, still, not terribly likely. Worth watching, though.

As for the question of what would cause it to move NE/ENE -- the flow at upper levels is largely heading toward that direction as associated with a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. If Alberto were to deepen and become a more vertically coherent storm, it'd likely start to feel those winds more and head in that direction. As is, however, the convection wants to develop in the flow aloft well to the east of the center, while convection near/over the center is being suppressed by those upper winds and the dry air. Whether that changes overnight is still to be determined.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: score42288]
      #66252 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:38 PM

It looks as if Alberto is starting to get his act together



--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
score42288
Unregistered




Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: SirCane]
      #66253 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:39 PM

Quote:

Really? I think not. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/DENNIS/track.gif




I am talking about the month of JUNE


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: score42288]
      #66254 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:40 PM

OK, I get you now. But, the way things have been the last couple years, climatology doesn't mean much.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: MikeC]
      #66255 - Sun Jun 11 2006 03:48 PM

rember guys the chat room is alawys open for discussion of alberto

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #66256 - Sun Jun 11 2006 04:09 PM

It actually looks like Alberto might be trying to fire off some convection in the bands just to the SW of the LLCC. This could be due, in part, to the gradual moistening of the surrounding air, allowing convection to occur more easily. Also, the centre seems to still be in a state of flux, with the main circulation north of the Yucatan, and a second circulation centre to its NNE, having emerged from the edge of the convective mass to the east of the cyclone.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto [Re: Rich B]
      #66257 - Sun Jun 11 2006 04:14 PM

Thanks, Rich. I was wondering about that.
I also noticed a convective burst near the 1 o'clock position. It's not being sheared at this time.
Nearly vertical growth. Then again, it might not have reached the shear line.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 33275

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center