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Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Alberto, on his way to 'Cane?
      #66523 - Mon Jun 12 2006 11:45 AM

After a rather impressive comeback last night, Alberto is on the verge of a becoming a hurricane. A strong burst of new convection created, in effect, a new center about 60 miles NE of the former dominant center. Hurricane Hunter aircraft found winds in excess of hurricane at flight level (not at the surface, however) and this has prompted NHC to upgrade a portion of the TS Warning area to a Hurricane Warning. It should be noted that no hurricane force winds have yet be observed in Alberto, and if they do exist, it is very likely in a small area of the storm on the NE and SE sides.

The big story of the day, as Alberto approaches land, will be Storm Surge...the Fl Big Bend area is one of the most surge prone areas in the world, and tides are already running higher than normal. In addition, a tornado watch is in effect for Central FL, and a few tornado warnings have already been issued.

With the strengthening we have seen this morning and the center relocation the NHC track looks a bit better...the stronger winds aloft should help Alberto "behave" as the NHC forecast track is outlining. Forecaster Pasch did a good job this morning outlining why the more northerly GFS and GFDL tracks, while not impossible, are not as likely to occur as a landfall around Cedar Key.

Stay tuned for more complete analysis in the blogs later today...

Jason Kelley

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