MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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There is an interesting area of low pressure near the Bahamas East and South of Florida that may bring us some more rain here in Florida, but it isn't likely to develop, at least in the short term
Some of the forecasting models do some interesting things with it, the model just moves it across Florida bringing some rain, but not developing. This would be ideal, but leaves some weather off the southeastern US coastline. Others move it around some, but still nothing is suggesting imminent development. It's an area to watch, however.
Conditions are against it forming into anything tropical right now, if you take a look at the satellite image and see the streaks of clouds to the northeast, you can see a bit of shear moving overtop it, which will keep development unlikely.
Toward the weekend things may pick up a bit as far as items to watch in the tropics, so keep watch as always.
Radar Imagery
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
91L:
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of 91L
Model Plot of 91L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Interesting model runs this morning. The 00Z and take the current wave/trough near the Bahamas and move it west either over S FL or thru the straits into the GOM. Both models then eventually develop weak lows either in the north-central or western GOM in 5-6 days. Both these models, along with the UKMET and , have another T-wave develop east of the Bahamas (may be the current wave near the Lesser Antilles) in 5-6 days. The of course goes gonzo and develops it into a tropical cyclone. The other models maintain it as an open wave. Looks like it could start to become more active the next week in the SW Atlantic and GOM.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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John2
Unregistered
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The has a few bad points in the Model run, wouldn't take to much stock in that Run. not showing much of anything both 000Z and 060Z run.... maybe somthing in the ..
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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Saw this from Sunday to Monday as well... models runs at 12 and 18Z were more than hinting at something devloping...then 0z runs-virtually nothing...
Most likely we'll see a return to yesterday and Sunday's 12 and 18Z runs with a developing Low... meaning (I think) that the blow up in convection over tand near the Bahamas will probably spur on the models to be more aggressive. That being said- any development in any model run so far out, I think we'll see the same repeating flip flop for the next day or so
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Might be a close in/no notice development...or in the Gulf.
Also, take a look out by the Azores, large low may be developing some central convection.
MM 
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Why is the area of the Bahamas not likely to develop at this time? Also, which way is the area moving? Could this possibly move
into the Gulf?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The last time is looked at the models..Sunday, they were 50-50 on the system's movement.
Either way, GOM or SE Atlantic Coast. The system did not develop.
I haven't checked the latest runs, but the Bahama's system is in or near an elongated trough of low pressure.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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00Z 850mb Vorticity model.
Current Bahamas system. Model maintains vorticity signature (spin) and send the system nearly due west, along the 25N line, to a point near 92W and then WSW to the US-Mexican border at 144 hours.
There are two other vortices indicated by this model run.
1-forms near the Turks and Caicos Islands and moves toward Cape Hatteras, NC.
2-Forms North of Puerto Rico and moves it just west of due North.
06Z Run.
Bahamas vortice to near Merida/ Tampico MX at 144hrs.
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John2
Unregistered
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012Z run now shows a 2 system building east of FL nothing in the Gulf....
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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Well both the and have the low in the 12Z runs. The , however is much faster in moving the low westard over the peninsula of FL-crossing in about 84 hours..the doesn't move the low over FL until about six days out. Hopefully we'll see a more consistant run at 18 or 0z
Timing is everything (mainly because I'm going on vacation next week haha  )
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
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How strong does the low appear when it moves over Florida? We still could use the rain here in South Florida, but anything stronger than that ... no thanks!
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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What does the shear look like it's going to do? Will it hold up long enough to keep the tops off of these systems?
I would LOVE another rainmaker here in SWFL! We got 2.5 inches of rain on Saturday from a regular t-storm, and .75 on Sunday. Nothing yesterday or yet today. Not looking too favorable today, unless a late afternoon/early evening storm blooms along the *brain fart* frontal line? (Is that what it's called?)
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Well both the and have the low in the 12Z runs. The , however is much faster in moving the low westard over the peninsula of FL-crossing in about 84 hours..the doesn't move the low over FL until about six days out. Hopefully we'll see a more consistant run at 18 or 0z
Timing is everything (mainly because I'm going on vacation next week haha )
Add the 12Z and the 12Z to the mix. The bring the Bahamas system west across the peninsula as an open wave and eventually develops a LLC that travels into the northern GOM near NO. The is slower and develops a 1,012 mb low east of the peninsula and moves it generally W-NW toward the east coast in 84 hrs.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2006062012
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
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RJB
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Seabreeze Front, Lesli.
MM
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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WE NEED RAIN!!!
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 20, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A large area of cloudiness...scattered showers... and a few thunderstorms continues across portions of the Bahamas and northeastward into the Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development of this system.
Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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i see the area in the bahamas is still unfavorable for development. does anyone know if it is going to become favorable in the coming days or will this just be a rainmaker for south florida?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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been watching the upper air evolution over the next few days. mind this stuff won't work out right if there's a significant storm altering the currents, but given the time of year and so forth it's probably a smarter assumption to think that the upper air evolution will likely keep any development weak and hard-pressed to do much. here's the take:
mid-level system continues to turn over a broad area northeast of the bahamas. there's a diffluent upper air flow overhead with an anticyclonic arc to it, helping the convection some. given the big upper low far east over the central atlantic, this area should naturally remain somewhat anticyclonic and keep the disturbed area active. any low pressure that develops would have to 'lock-in' and becoming attuned to the deep convection and outflow mechanism, or lower-level steering currents would just push it west into a high shear-zone around florida/the gulf. so, if a low comes east to florida, expect a weak enhancement to showers and nothing else.
i usually buy into what the energy from a system is shown doing by models, and the result of most of these is to take a weak low/precip area west then north into the carolinas... maybe a weak system running fl/ga/sc. if something gets going it would more than likely turn up around the mid-level ridge, which should stay anchored east of hatteras for the rest of the week. that's something to consider, at least.
there's also an upper high propagating west, with an attendant wave in the caribbean. the high should enhance it some... but globals show a pretty strong jet on its back flank, shown outrunning the waves and shearing them in the western caribbean.
gfs keeps trying to focus the system near the bahamas further east, and take its energy out past bermuda in a sort of 'jeanne-east' scenario. it has made a couple of significant systems like earlier runs, but has them developing in high-shear zones in a quasi-baroclinic fashion. don't buy it.
bottom line: if the feature off the southeast keeps persisting, it will eventually spawn a surface low. if the surface low doesn't jolt westward into shear, it may wiggle itself into being a weak tropical cyclone, fighting some shear, and carry a ton of moisture up towards the mid-atlantic after menacing the southeast late this week.
random thought... we're just about at the summer solistice. enjoy that late evening twilight.
HF 0002z21june
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
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Just to add my two bits to the fire here....
Took a peek at the 12Z and 18Z which are similar in difting a fairly stout inverted surface trough westward into/across Florida somtime during the THU-FRI period. 12Z/18Z is quite a bit drier for ECFL during that time frame since it hangs the weak trough out to the east...and doesn't allow it to rach the coast until FRI night/SAT.
However...all the global guidance is in decent agreement w/r/t the H50 pattern...which shows a pretty stout ridge developing over the the eastern thru 12Z THU. This feature is progged to stretch eastward into the western ATLC through FRI and then begin to weaken around 12Z SAT.
The SFC-H50 pattern is not going to allow any sort of shallow low-mid level system to move northward a la the 18Z NAM/DGEX which is off on it's own spinning up a TS and moving it NW then N into SC/NC by SAT night/SUN.
The H30-H20 pattern over that area switches from diffluent/divergent SW flow to somewhat convergent N-NW flow as the deforming type low which has been stretched across central/southern FL begins to push eastward through late week.
All-in-all, it doesn't look like a pattern terribly conducive for a TC to form. SFC pressures aren't that low to begin with, and the synoptic-aided ascent which is helping to boost convection is forecast to weaken. At this point, I'd call for, at best, a very weak surface trough to approach the FL east coast through late week, which would be pretty welcome should it come to fruition as it would aid diurnal TSTM activity over the state.
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Thomas Giella
Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 25
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) rarely transition into warm core tropical systems. They usually move slowly westward and pass across South Florida or the Florida Straits, first depressing thunderstorm activty and then enhancing it.
Conditions are not favorable for tropical development. We should savor the quiet pattern that we are in right now as the tropics will heat up in July.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
flycylone@tampabay.rr.com
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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I wouldn't put too much stock into the solution, either. It got the WRF-NMM core plopped into it today at 12Z, which has a known tendency to overdevelop tropical features. Not sure why, especially given that it is based off of the old Eta schemes and physics, but I would venture a guess to say that it is in the convective parameterizations.
If this were August, the upper-air pattern would likely be much different than it is now. We saw a lot of these types of developments last year, but not until the middle part of the season. The upper air pattern may remain marginally favorable as HF mentioned, but it's going to be tough to get any significant tropical development out of this one.
Then again, here in N. Florida, we'd take any enhancement to our rain chances we could get -- despite Alberto's 3"+ of rain, we're back over 10" in the hole for the year.
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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