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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Comeback? [Re: cieldumort]
      #69467 - Fri Aug 04 2006 09:00 PM

Quote:

Looks really troughy to me, too. Should be a close call for them to decide whether to go with TD or dissipated overnight. I suspect there's some semblance of a non-trofy broad surface circulation still present, however. Given NHC' s tendency to err on the side of caution with Chris, I suspect that they will continue advisories as long as can be remotely justified, as he has had some history of surprising on the upside.




The fact that there is more convection now than earlier today may be a sign that Chris may come back somehow, but wiithout a LLC, it shouldn't be considered a TD. The 5pm advisory indicated that there was a weak west wind somewhere in there and that's why advisories were being maintained. Storms have come back from worse situations, so time will tell.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #69468 - Fri Aug 04 2006 09:02 PM

I'm not really sure what is still out there; doesn't look like a whole lot to me, and I imagine most of these 35kt flight level winds are coming in the midst of the isolated convective bursts.

I think it's debateable as to whether or not there is still a closed surface circulation associated with Chris and I am fairly certain that the convection associated with its remnants is unorganized and more driven by the upper level low to its east than anything. Chris fought the TUTT...and the TUTT won.

On its current path, it will likely pass over of skirt very near Cuba over the weekend. I don't see anything changing until the central Gulf to allow for regeneration and I expect you will see the storm declassified at 11pm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Clark]
      #69470 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:02 PM

I believe your right Clark. It's all or nothing, looks like a nothing to me. This is a bit off topic but I think Debbys on the way by the end of the weekend to early next week. As for Chris, with that huge ULL there is no chance for re-organization, even in the warm steamy GOM. Too much shear. Though don't write Chris off yet, he may do an unpredictable thing like he did many times this week.

read what you post please...you give it no chance then state don't write it off?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 04 2006 10:07 PM)


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wow
Unregistered




Re: Comeback? [Re: allan]
      #69471 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:20 PM

Deleted by Moderator

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 04 2006 10:24 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Clark]
      #69472 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:22 PM

There are still tropical storm watches up for Long Island and Exumas in the central Bahamas. Is it possible that the NHC has maintained the system as a depression in order for the Bahamian government to keep these watches up on the off chance that regeneration occurs, or because tropical storm-like conditions are thought by the local officials to be possible? (Seems strange, but I can't see why they would keep it a T.D. when there is no sign of any circulation).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Hugh]
      #69473 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:24 PM

Maybe, but I don't think there's evidence now to keep them up any longer. I think we'll see that from the NHC at 11p as well. It's been almost 8hr since a vortex message was transmitted, though (granted) the last recon report was about 6hr ago. We'll know soon.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Comeback? [Re: allan]
      #69474 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:29 PM

Just curious, why do you think Debbys about to form? Looks to my untrained eye that nothing is going on in the tropics, and Chris has died.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Clark]
      #69475 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:30 PM

Well, time here is 9:30 (CDT) .. and I can still make out a very feeble low level coc near 22N/74W (aprox)

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Comeback? [Re: Clark]
      #69476 - Fri Aug 04 2006 10:36 PM

Well.... the death bell has NOT yet been rung... Per the 11pm advisory...All watches and warnings are cancelled, but an advisory WILL be issued at 5am.
Winds down to 30mph, dissippation a possibility.

Just read the discussion... the NHC is giving Chris more time to see if it maintains itself, it seems, but they admit that dissipation could occur at any time - as well as stating tha the circulation is very difficult to locate!



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 04 2006 10:40 PM)


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: Comeback? [Re: cieldumort]
      #69477 - Fri Aug 04 2006 11:38 PM

As Chris continues westward, that very large area of showers off of Africa is starting to catch some eyes.

The IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

It's prime season for this area of course.

--------------------
2004: Alex, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne

2005: Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma

2006:?


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Comeback? [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #69481 - Sat Aug 05 2006 12:36 AM

The cluster of showers off the west coast Of Africa is a wave and surely needs to keep an eye on it. Surely we have entered the peak of activities in the tropics and Debby will soon show her face and when exactly that is, remains to be seen. We could be in a quiet season after all but there is still a long way to go here.

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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Comeback? [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #69482 - Sat Aug 05 2006 12:41 AM

Quote:

The cluster of showers off the west coast Of Africa is a wave and surely needs to keep an eye on it. Surely we have entered the peak of activities in the tropics and Debby will soon show her face and when exactly that is, remains to be seen. We could be in a quiet season after all but there is still a long way to go here.




Well there is a wave in front of the cluster of Showers & T-Storms. I wonder if those showers and t-storms interact with the wave, there could be some sort of activity but it's way too early to tell.


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