MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Last night it was mentioned that Chris could fluctuate wildly, up or down since it was a small storm, and it did so downward overnight in a drastic fashion.
The storm's convection split off and headed a bit southwest, while the center of circulation kept moving west, causing the storm to weaken dramatically overnight back to almost depression state.
This is good news in a lot of ways, it keeps the system further south, lowering the chances for affects in Florida to near nothing (although it keeps the Caribbean Islands, including Cuba more under the gun. The forecast now keeps it as a Tropical Storm, but it even may fall apart totally. The shear around the system decreases as it heads west.
The best news would be the system would disipate and bother no one, but it still must be watched for a while. If it does cross the islands it has even more of a chance to fall apart. But the east coast of Florida seems, for now, much less likely to be in the picture.
Again, the official forecast keeps Chris as a tropical storm, so it is still worth watching until is passes to the south. It is likely that chris could fall apart completely, but it still has the chance to refire. We'll be watching closely for that today.
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Radar Imagery
Flhurricane long term radar recording of Chris
Flhurricane/HCW long term High Resolution Level 3 Radar Recording of Chris
San Juan, PR
Martinique Radar
Model; Plots (More at bottom of main page):
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Chris:
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of Chris
Google Map Plot of Chris
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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Randrew
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
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So all this begs the question: "What is going to happen to the Gulf coast"? I have heard this all day and I have a handle on some of the conditions. Need some professional input regarding the future of whatever might be left of Chris please.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Repost from the Last Thread.
Forecaster Avila has updated the Forecast Discussion.
I'll quote him here...
..."I WAS TEMPTED TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/030839.shtml
Chris has Not Been Declared Dead or History. So please don't turn your back on this one. CHRIS may be History later, but as of the 5 AM Advisory it's still an Active Tropical System.~danielw
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Randrew
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
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I will restate my question. After whatever Chris is going to do or whatever land masses he crosses and then whatever might be left when this system emerges West into the Gulf or the Caribbean....What then is the outlook for the Gulf? Knowing full well I have not turned my back on Chris at this time.
Any professional input would be appreciated.
Wait for the next product.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Aug 03 2006 06:33 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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It loooks like Franklin was right after all, albeit a bit too quick on the downward spiral.
I really did not see this kind of shear last night - saw some, but not from the NE (which is obviously where the shear is from now).... now, the shear could weaken just as rapidly as it strengthened, but looking to the WNW of the LLC, I don't see much hope for Chris to do anything but fall apart completely, and rather soon.
DISCLAIMER: This is not the forecast, although the discussion at 5am ET alludes to the possibility. The official forecast is for Chris to weaken slightly, but hold together.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Aug 03 2006 06:39 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The latest floater shows that the convection such as it is, is sort of southeast of the circuation.
it already looks like it is building more geographic width. If the convection builds around the new circulation, we could have a sizeable storm. It is much more likely to flareup again with the outline looking as strong as it does from statellite. This is not a storm to discount as being gone. Continue the rule of thumb that until it is either completely disappated or has passed your latitude, it is still something to think about. I remember Andrew was declared overwith by the majority of storm watchers in 92, IF we did not learn that lesson then, we will have to experience it again. For amateur watchers, the discussions are in time frames, they change frequently. I read a report on Tuesday night that hurricane conditions would be expected for mariners in the vicinity of Central Florida between Friday and Sunday. This is long term information for shipping and boating interests. I am going to go with that report until it changes to calm seas and low wave heights.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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The latest water vapor loop shows nothing but dry ary to the north and west of the LLC, sort of. I say sort of because you can't see the LLC on the water vapor loop. No signs of rebuilding cloud tops. Visible imagery confirms the existence still of a good LLC. Time will tell....
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Absolutely amazing early morning visible pix as the convection just got blown completely of the circulation to the southeast, leaving a well-defined circulation at the surface, like someone blowing out a candle. But the circulation is still there and as quickly as the T'storms went away, they could return today. Nothing much else to talk about except the wave in the eastern Atlantic which may takes its time getting organized. Dr. Gray has lowered his numbers, but still expects an above-average number of storms. It only takes one to cause trouble. But things are looking up this morning. Cheers!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The low level circulation is moving along slightly N of west, and some new TS have popped up in the out flow areas...BUT the ULL over the Bahamas has not shown signs of further movement to the west and a SW shear is just ahead of the surface low which will impede any significant development...also the kink to the NE has probably caused the current shear and that is moving faster than the surface low...so it looks like life support.
The whole mess in the Bahamas with a trough down over Cuba to Jamaica area seems to show a cyclonic spin on the tail just southwest of Jamaica...plus the ULL itself is intraining more moisture...which looks to be at lower levels...someone mentioned a transition in this area a couple of days ago...the longer it just sits.....
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Aug 03 2006 07:31 AM)
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Hey Steve. I was looking for Dr. Grey's Aug update. Can't find it. But you said he lowered his #'s. Please post his updated site. Thanks
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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If you get a chance, take a look at the IR loop for Chris this morning. Quite a remarkable sight, the way the thunderstorms have been pushed off the circulation. Here's a link if you need one: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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Quote:
I will restate my question. After whatever Chris is going to do or whatever land masses he crosses and then whatever might be left when this system emerges West into the Gulf or the Caribbean....What then is the outlook for the Gulf? Knowing full well I have not turned my back on Chris at this time.
Any professional input would be appreciated.
Wait for the next product.
No one knows. If you want anything more than that, consult a psychic. *LOL*
Everyone keeps telling you to wait and see, because nobody can tell you what's going to happen. No one knows what is going to happen. All you can do is stay tuned -- that's what everyone has been saying for the past couple of days now.
This is a small, unpredictable storm. It could easily dissipate. It could hold together long enough to make it to the GOM. Nobody knows WHAT it will do. Not the , not the models, not the mets here.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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The pressure is back up to 1012mb as of the 8am update. Winds down to 40mph sustained.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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That's amazing, looking at the visible sat pics this morning, like just a "shadow" of a circulation, just like what someone said about "blowing out a candle."
Like it's a nekkid storm or something. 
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
This is a small, unpredictable storm. It could easily dissipate. It could hold together long enough to make it to the GOM. Nobody knows WHAT it will do. Not the , not the models, not the mets here.
If past performance is any indication, Chris will rapidly strengthen to a hurricane in the next several hours.
No, it's not going to do that, but my point is this: The initial model forecasts were for fairly rapid dissipation. The storm strengthened fairly rapidly instead. Then the models forecasted gradual strengthening to a hurricane. So, Chris was ripped to shreads, literally. As good as the models sometimes are, it seems like they've completely blown it with Chris, which given the size of the storm, isn't a surprise. Small circulation, extremely fragile, as Franklin said in the very first Discussion on the system.
If the shear weakens somehow, or Chris decides to change its mind and strengthen again, it will... but don't hold your breath waiting for this thing to do anything in particular.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
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Hugh what did you think about Dr. Grays 26% chance for a major hurricane on the Gulf Coast? It was a scorcher yesterday here in Defuniak Springs.  With all the ridging in place it does make sense.
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JOC
Unregistered
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I'm confused. What has allowed the storm to move now wnw? It would seem to me that the shear that did all the damage overnight would push the small coc more in the direction of the on coming shear. My point is, we better not give up on this one until the coc completely dissipates or opens up into a wave.
JOC
shear is changing direction of winds with height. when all you have is a shallow system, the winds aloft don't matter and the near-surface flow does. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 03 2006 10:57 AM)
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anon
Unregistered
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The shear is at the upper levels. The shear pushed the upper levels of the storm SSW, but the low level flow which is WNW continued to push the low level center.
In effect the decoupling provided two low pressure area, one moving WNW at the lower levels of the atmosphere and the other moving SW at the upper levels.
Chris may not go down in history as a major cane, but it sure provided an interesting study.
HF had it nailed early and just when the boys jumped on board, Chris pulled a 180 and fell in line with what many of the models were saying.
Hurricane predicting is a science, but there's still some art there too. There are too many factors at play that can and do happen that we can't predict. Inchris' casr the intensity forecasts were hardly every correct.
And as for global warming????? Heck it's plenty hot and yet the basic science of atmospheric flow took care of any high water temperatures.
Follow Chris today, it could conceivably bob around like a cork in water and find a better environment once again. Several storms last year did that in the Bahamas.
cooltiger
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It should be noted that yesterday's runs weakened the storm dramatically before it ever reached Hispaniola in the model world. I discounted that at the time as some sort of premature land interaction and forecasters probably did as well, but that seems to have panned out.
Now all we have is a naked low-level circulation. Most of the time, systems never really recover from this state, but it still needs to be watched.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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HLonney, the details of Dr. Gray's update aren't posted at his site yet, but the news said the numbers now are 13/9/3. Just do a search on Dr. Gray on CSU and you'll get it, but its probably not available until later today. My guess at the WNW movement is that it was predicted all along. Also, this system is not deep so the steering will be affected by the 850 mb heights' flow, probably from the Bahamas low. In fact, I posted a few days ago that the ULL was showing signs that it seemed to be working its way down to mid-levels. This might have an effect on the track Chris. Maybe Clark and HF etc., can help explain. Chris & Debby never seem to fare very well crossing the Atlantic.....at least they didn't last time around. Seems Chris dissipated a few years ago after cranking up real well over the central Atlantic, and Debby skidded out near Cuba trying to make a hard right turn. Oh well, that's a good thing, but I better not jinx it. 
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