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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
East of Puerto Rico
      #69661 - Mon Aug 07 2006 01:10 AM

Tropical wave with a convective flare-up near 17.8N 63.1W at 07/04Z is moving to the west northwest at about 10mph. Wave is bringing scattered heavy rainshowers to the Leeward Islands. Motion should become more northwesterly as the wave comes under the influence of a large upper level low to its northwest. I haven't really looked at the environment, but I would suspect only a slim chance for additional development.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
North Coast of Dominican Republic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #69682 - Mon Aug 07 2006 11:25 AM

Tropical wave relocated near 20N 70W at 07/15Z continues to remain active while moving west northwest at 20mph. Wave structure has improved overnight. Motion should continue toward the west northwest to northwest. Strong upper low near 22N 55W is digging southwestward while upper low to the northwest of the wave is weakening and moving off to the northwest. This system is slowly becoming something to keep a casual eye on if the upper low to the northwest continues to retreat. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?
Cheers,
ED


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: North Coast of Dominican Republic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #69693 - Mon Aug 07 2006 02:23 PM

If it keeps moving WNW or NW its gonna run into shear. The convection has stepped up a notch today tho. It's a watcher.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: North Coast of Dominican Republic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #69696 - Mon Aug 07 2006 03:19 PM

Well I saw it this morning...I think the convective flareup is more due to upper level winds at that location, there doesn't seem to be any vorticity, so not a good candidate for development?

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: North Coast of Dominican Republic [Re: Margie]
      #69704 - Mon Aug 07 2006 05:28 PM

this thing... i called it a no-go earlier, and that's still the most likely result. the u/a low that chopped chris up is the culprit, only this time the low is elongating and pulling westward ahead of a wave, enhancing it by divergence aloft. low level winds are really cranking and the ridge to the north is strong, so there's nothing for the convection to 'hang up' on, should just keep plowing westward and never develop any vertical structure.
last year, time and again.. this was the mechanism that created the hurricane blitzkrieg.
HF 2128z07august


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: 91L... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69946 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:59 PM

91L still trying to make it...



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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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