An area of low pressure (1013mbars) continues to sit along an old stationary frontal boundary, with a surface trough that extends south west trough the Florida Straights into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms have increase this afternoon along this trough, due to interaction with a near by . (Discuss below).
Convection along this front appears to have become better organized, and if conditions permit, a tropical or subtropical depression could form.
The area is sitting over 80-85 degrees Fahrenheit waters, which more than enough to support a tropical or subtropical system.
A tropical upper troposphere trough/low is located north of the Bahamas at 29N/78W. The trough is difficult to locate on water vapor Imagery but is clearly evident on 200mb streamline winds imagery.
This has create a small area of 30knot wind shear just off the Flroida/Gerogia coastline and that could inhibit development of any system moving in that area.
As stated above, the low is helping to increase convection along the surface trough that extends into north of the Bahamas into the Gulf of Mexico, where a new disturbance has form.
It appears that the Upper Level High that was centered over either Florida, Georgia or South Carolina has made it down to the surface. The high has been difficult to locate but appears to be at the surface.
Another High, this one in the upper levels, is located north east of 93L.
There are three tropical waves located in the Atlantic as of today. First one long 68W, the second along 37W and the third 22W.
The third wave (Former 94L) has diminish in thunderstorm activity. The wave is embedded in high atmospheric instability and low wind shear, even though it is disorganized, however conditions will become less favorable brought about by two upper level lows.
The first one is located just east of the Azores Islands, with a south westward extending upper level trough to near 25N. There is strong wind shear all along this trough.
The second is rather strong, located north east of the Leeward Islands, and can be seen spinning west to west-south-west on water vapor imagery. This low is also casing strong upper level winds.
The low will also increase moisture over the Islands.
Therefore, the wave only chance of development is east of 40W, for now, as the ULL could move west.