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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
What Do You Think Now?
      #70201 - Wed Aug 16 2006 11:16 PM

While we are waiting during this quite period, I thought that it might be fun to get your thoughts on two items:

1. On what date will Debby become a 'named' tropical storm?

2. Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?

No rationale is required for your 'guesses', although you can state them if you wish. Lets run the 'contest' until 21Z on Sunday the 20th. I'll post my own thoughts at that time when we close the contest at 5pm EDT on Sunday..

Just reply in this thread with your answers, and please, only those that are willing to stick their neck out should respond. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70206 - Thu Aug 17 2006 04:26 AM

Debby will be named on August 22nd and I'll stick to 14/6/4 for the season total.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #70212 - Thu Aug 17 2006 08:34 AM

Based on the last few GFS runs, climo and an exhaustive discussion with my weather advisor, the eminent Dr. Clamso Linguine, professor emeritus of meteorology at Bologna University, I'll go with 23 August as the date Debby is named. Season totals guess (and it's a guess at best) 15/8/4.

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VMI Bran
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #70226 - Thu Aug 17 2006 02:14 PM

Since the 25th is a Friday, and these things always happen on Fridays, I'll go with that. Totals, completely SWAG-ged, at 12/5/2

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70228 - Thu Aug 17 2006 03:10 PM

I went with 15/9/5 back in May, and I'm going to take liberty to lop 2 numbers off of each. I'd look even worse had I gone forward with my plans to bump my numbers to 17...glad I didn't. It's not the seasonal stuff I'm all that great with, anyway.

As for Debby...soon, depending on what that CV wave the GFS is so bullish with does. Coop's Aug. 22nd looks good, give or take a day or so.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: What Do You Think Now? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #70236 - Thu Aug 17 2006 09:04 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: ltpat228]
      #70242 - Fri Aug 18 2006 05:54 AM

Test Post...

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Clark]
      #70249 - Fri Aug 18 2006 11:23 AM

I`ll go with 12/6/3..........As for Debbie.....August 24th ??????

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #70251 - Fri Aug 18 2006 03:14 PM

Oh, how I love a good guessing game!

Firstly, I am going to trim my numbers to 12/5/3. No logical reasoning behind this, just good ole' gut instinct. As for Debbie/Debby I'll go with August 28th....because I have to be out of town that day and stuff always seems to happen when I'm away from home.


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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70255 - Fri Aug 18 2006 05:14 PM

Wow, it seems like the Atlantic is dead compared to last year.

I'll go with August 24th for Debby.

And 11/5/3.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70258 - Fri Aug 18 2006 07:06 PM

Hmmm - not too many entries yet, so I'll offer some motivation of historical interest. The winner of the final season tally for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in this thread will receive a color copy of an original WSR88D (NEXRAD) printout of long range base reflectivity from the Melbourne radar taken on August 24, 1992, at 1427Z (the framed original is on the wall in my den).

Remember, you've only got about 46 hours left to post your forecasts/guesses. Good Luck!
Cheers,
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70259 - Fri Aug 18 2006 07:25 PM

Yeah.. Well, this little question has compelled me to rethink my thinking on the season totals to come, once again.

To qualify my vote - these numbers are also going to reflect systems which I believe are deserving, and have the best chances to get, post-season reanalysis inclusion - so, it's possible that I am going to be *way* high until the final tally is done ... and perhaps then I'll just be high, and not be coming from the furthest reaches of our solar system

I was even a little bit north of these just prior to watching the past few weeks worth of possibles wither and die on the vine, having taken the fast track to destruction by making one too many an appearance on the SunnyDry & WindyShear Show, long after it was realized among tropical wanna-be's that doing so amounted to blowing the flame out on any future aspirations.

15/7/3


*** Oh yeah *** As for Debby's B-day, I'll push my vote out on that up to the limit when I can get a better handle on the coming few days.

Edit on 8/20 at 3AM - for best guessing the naming of Debby on 8/23

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2006 03:56 AM)


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John C
Unregistered




Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70284 - Sat Aug 19 2006 07:44 AM

8/30/06

9/6/2


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: ]
      #70296 - Sat Aug 19 2006 08:07 PM

what the heck
12/5/3
and debby august 26

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #70297 - Sat Aug 19 2006 10:54 PM

Okay,
I am going with...

10/7/2

Debby.. August 29th

Christine


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #70298 - Sat Aug 19 2006 10:57 PM

Ok let me get in on this

10/7/4
Debby on the 22nd. Based on the GFS runs


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70299 - Sat Aug 19 2006 11:15 PM

9/6/06 for Debby

9/3/1

Bill


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: BillD]
      #70318 - Sun Aug 20 2006 05:15 PM

Debby: 8/27/06

Season: 12/7/4

*I know I'm 15 minutes late... It doesn't have to count..but why not??


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: What Do You Think Now? [Re: ElizabethH]
      #70320 - Sun Aug 20 2006 05:29 PM

No your not late since I haven't posted until now. Based mostly on statistical analysis with some MJO and wind shear patterns thrown in, I'm going with 9/13/06 for Debby and 10/4/1 for the season (my guess doesn't count for the season totals).

Thanks to all who participated.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
...And The Winner Is... [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74222 - Sun Dec 10 2006 09:12 AM

"Having seen how the season has evolved so far this year, what do you now think the final season tally will be for named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes?"

The final total was 9/5/2 and John C's guess was 9/6/2 so he's the winner!
Cheers,
ED


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