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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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gus
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August Spin
      #70323 - Sun Aug 20 2006 08:15 PM

Don't those waves look impressive near Africa. there now is a broad sluggish moisture on the wave that came off the African coastline not too long ago. I dnno but I have a feeling something big is going to happen in a week or so. I think this is the end of the so called quiet period of the season. I do see a hurricane in a week if things continue the way they are. The wave off the Africa coastline now looks really impressive. I think it's something to track this week.

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Early Morning Model Roundup [Re: gus]
      #70403 - Tue Aug 22 2006 02:23 AM

CMC GLOBAL
TD4 Up and down intensities...144hr (6 day) forecast.Near 25N/ 55W

Current Wave near 10N/ 40W. Begins an increase in intensity while south of Dominican Republic. (850mb 2 contours)
Increasing to a 3rd 850mb contour just South of the Western tip of Cuba at 132hr (5.5 days,Sunday 12Z).
Up to a 4th 850mb contour, at 144hrs ( 6.0 days-Sunday Night) just North of the Yucatan Channel (Cancun,MX), and after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

500mb vortice is present along the same forecast track.
(Note:The CMC Global is the ONLY model forecasting this Wave to intensify at this time-00Z 22AUG06)
*********************************************

GFDL
TD4 Increasing intensity. Maximum of 87.9kts/ 101mph (981mb forecast minumum pressure). Near 29.5N/ 51.5W at 126hrs (06Z 27Aug06-Early Sunday Morning).
(Note:This run of the GFDL is also forecasting occasional 35 to 64kt winds over the Central Lesser Antilles (from 06Z-23AUG06,to 00Z-24AUG06) and over Eastern Cuba, (from 00Z26AUG06 to 12Z26AUG06)
(These are Forecast wind speeds from the 00Z 22AUG06 GFDL Model Run)
**********************************************

GFS
TD4 Consistant intensity on a Northwestward forecast track.
To a forecast position of 30N/ 50W at 144hrs (6 days-Sunday Night)

No other features in the Atlantic Basin on this model run.
*********************************************

UKMET
TD4 Maintains intensity through 96 hours (12Z Friday Morning).
At 144hrs (6 days), centered near 25N/ 55W, as an 850mb, 1 contour vortice.


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