Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Agreed. 00Z should be rolling in as we speak, I would think. Should be interesting.. BTW was speaking of the GFDN model before, its off to Texas somewhere.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I don't know about BN9 right now...one forecast minute they are talking about the models moving more to the west and the next forecast minute they are talking about how we are "still under the gun". I know they are trying to keep us informed but I just wish they would be consistent. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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00Z A98E seems to be finally coming more into line.
18Z had 120HR point of 24.3 89.9
00Z has 120HR point of 27.6 89.0
BAMS, BAMD still sticking to the much more west scenario.
Still waiting for the 00Z run of the .
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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TampaRand
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Loc: Tampa FL
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Interesting 00Z seems to have gone more EAST. Looks almost like a SE Florida Land Fall going north up through state exiting near JAX. Crazy..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
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Thanks for the info on the first part of my post but what about the second part.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Thanks for the info on the first part of my post but what about the second part.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN ATLC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 22N...MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1008MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N26W.
THE LOW HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANALYZED ALONE... BUT THE WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE SEEN AND CLEAR WAVELIKE SIGNATURE IN GOES LOW LEVEL HIGH DENSITY WINDS S TO 5N.
THE WAVE REMAINS NEARLY VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL CELL OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 18N29W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/262353.shtml?
From the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.
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TampaRand
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heynow
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Loc: Abbeville, LA 29.97N 92.13W
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Nah, they are out there..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
851
SXXX50 KNHC 270523
AF303 0505A HDOB 15 KNHC
0513. 1608N 07237W 01462 0021 207 035 186 182 036 01483 0000000000
0514 1610N 07238W 01466 0018 207 036 188 178 037 01484 0000000000
0514. 1611N 07240W 01462 0018 210 039 194 162 039 01479 0000000000
0515 1612N 07241W 01465 0017 211 039 198 156 039 01482 0000000000
0515. 1613N 07242W 01464 0016 215 038 192 164 038 01479 0000000000
0516 1614N 07243W 01464 0013 215 036 192 168 037 01477 0000000000
0516. 1616N 07245W 01466 0011 215 036 188 170 038 01477 0000000000
0517 1617N 07246W 01460 0012 226 028 180 180 033 01472 0000000000
0517. 1618N 07247W 01462 0011 243 023 174 174 025 01505 0000000000
0518 1619N 07248W 01473 0007 247 019 174 174 021 01514 0000000000
0518. 1621N 07248W 01458 0003 238 016 174 174 018 01495 0000000000
0519 1622N 07249W 01465 0000 227 020 176 176 021 01501 0000000000
0519. 1624N 07250W 01463 5002 232 025 186 182 026 01496 0000000000
0520 1625N 07250W 01466 5002 236 020 192 178 025 01498 0000000000
0520. 1627N 07251W 01447 5009 268 017 206 170 019 01473 0000000000
0521 1629N 07251W 01477 5012 317 017 206 170 019 01500 0000000000
0521. 1630N 07251W 01523 5013 314 022 220 158 026 01545 0000000000
0522 1632N 07250W 01454 5028 311 033 244 148 040 01460 0000000000
0522. 1633N 07249W 01465 5042 281 032 258 140 034 01458 0000000000
0523 1634N 07248W 01456 5052 314 027 238 156 029 01439 0000000000
303 is out there now 304 was earlier today. Last transmission.. should have a vortex soon.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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All the 0z models have shifted much further east...with Most hitting florida from the Keys .....Marco Island (GFS) Keys ..Tampa...(Nogaps) and (UkMet) now inline with them.....Canadian is also much further east then its 12Z run running just west of Clearwater and landfall near Cedar Key......GFDL has moved east with Florida landfall. All Major models are clusterd within 150miles in 4 days out near the west coast of Florida or inland........next runs will see if they adjust more east even...I doubt they would go back west cause like I said before over the last 2 days..there will be a trough blocking anything from bringing Eresto past 85 west......
Edited by scottsvb (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:38 AM)
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Yes the modeling is gaining some consensus with the major models.GFDL,UKMET, and . I still do not put much weight in the AVN, BAM, etc.Too short range to be useful for all but that purpose, but all the majors are showing the trend for re-curvature I have been talking about at some length. I also do not see this going past 85W and going to the FL west coast, which, incidentally I live on. Just North of Tampa is our worst case scenario.
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
Getting better organized! Could be a hurricane later today......
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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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Ernesto has really slowed down...... Moving at 9mh at West-northwest and pressure is dropping also... A strengthening storm no doubt.
Are there really a Recon flight out there and if so, do we have a vortex yet?
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 113
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
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Quote:
Ernesto has really slowed down...... Moving at 9mh at West-northwest and pressure is dropping also... A strengthening storm no doubt.
Are there really a Recon flight out there and if so, do we have a vortex yet?
Here is the VDM:
000
URNT12 KNHC 270559 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:23:50Z
B. 16 deg 37 min N
072 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 323 deg 040 kt
G. 224 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C/ 1440 m
J. 26 C/ 1461 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0505A OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 05:21:30 Z
PRESSURE 994MB 210/03NM FROM FIX LOCATION
CORRECTED FOR EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE
;
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa FL
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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Normally this would be a sigh of relief for me here after the devastation of , but you know it's not going where the models have it that far out, and I rather be under the gun now than on Tuesday.
I also feel horrible for you guys in Florida. No one in the central/eastern Gulf needs this!
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Sarg
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Riverview, Fl
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From looking at the earlier model runs not one had it coming anywhere close to Tampa. Now a bunch have it coming in and around Tampa what would cause them all to change so drastically?
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