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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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NEWS PHOTOG
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: SirCane]
      #71123 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:20 PM

I am not getting any 8PM graphic either... hmmmm.

BTW, this is my first post here, but I have been monitoring this blog for a couple of years. A great thing to have during those LONG waits between "official" updates.


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: NEWS PHOTOG]
      #71124 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:24 PM

I thought that the NHC only put out new track and forecast charts every 6hrs; 5pm, 11pm, etc. That is when they have a complete advisory.

--------------------


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 135
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71125 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:28 PM

I think you are correct. I think that the 2:00 & 8:00 are intermediate advisories? Look for the new one at 11:00..
Hope this helps some.
Christine


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Sea Mule
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71127 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:34 PM

An earilier discussion related that the storm, if it develops into a 4-5, would likely lose some punch as it gets close to land. However, here is my take on that.....while it proves true in many cases, I only have to mention Katrina as an example. They rate hurricanes on the saffir simpson scale by wind speed...and one wonders if size and duration of intensity might also be considered when analyzing how dangerous they can be. Katrina stayed a 5 for quite a while, and when she hit land in Mississippi...the storm surge was greater than the wind speed would suggest.....suffice to say the hurricane may have decrease windspeed, but any analysis of the damage would suggest otherwise.

<< snip by Moderator >>

We appreciate what level you think this hurricane might reach but this isn't the appropriate forum for those thoughts unless backed up with facts or research. Consider posting your personal opinions on strength in the Forecast Lounge.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Aug 26 2006 09:45 PM)


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ERNESTO
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #71129 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:39 PM

looking at the map It looks as tho Ernesto is further NORTH than the forcast points from the NHC... ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS???????

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Sea Mule]
      #71130 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:41 PM

A link to buoy information was posted earlier today. One of the buoys in the southern Gulf, along Ernesto's forecast track, was measuring a SST of near 90 degrees at the time. The SSTs in the "loop current" aren't quite as high as they were a year ago, I think someone said (less than 1 degree difference, though)... but overall, the water in the Gulf can best be described as an oven.

Conditions must be near perfect for a superstorm to develop... or so people thought before last year. Certainly if shear is low and land interactions are minimized, Ernesto COULD get there, if it's moving slow enough to spend time over the hot water. The fact that the NHC has sometimes stated in recent discussions on Ernesto that the intensity forecast may be too low can't be overlooked.

Bottom line, a Cat 5 cannot be predicted, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility in my opinion.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71131 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:47 PM

All day I've watched as the track has shifted N and E with each update. This keeps bringing the storm closer to my area (S FL) however this a tough road to travel as atleast 3/4 of the storm will over Cuba (and it's mountains) for an extended period of time. The good news is this should keep Ernesto down to only a strong TS or weak Cat 1 'Cane due to land interaction. However the bad news is this also makes the true center of the storm hard to locate... and we have seen evidence of that since day one of TD#5. Thus when Ernest does pop back out into the SE GOM a few days from now it might be just as "jumpy" and difficult to get a fix on it's true postion. It's very possible that the center could reform in totally different place after the Cuba crossing and this will certainly make it's track an even harder to figure out.

I hate to bring up Charley because I think it's still to early to judge, but anywhere along the SW & W coast of FL has to be very mindful of this "jump" across Cuba. Given the cone of error the storm might be right at top of you without much notice where as our friends in Panhandle/upper Gulf Coast region will have another day or two of lead time. I don't want to scare anyone but I worried about weak-ish storm with an ill-defined or difficult to locate center coming over Cuba then quickly rebuilding/ramping up only a few miles off the SW FL coast. We all know a turn to the N/NE will occur it just a matter of when and where.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71132 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:48 PM

Quote:

I thought that the NHC only put out new track and forecast charts every 6hrs; 5pm, 11pm, etc. That is when they have a complete advisory.




They've been updating the graphics every three hours today. If you go look at the archives, you'll see they're all there. That's why it's weird that they didn't put up an 8pm one.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Zoloft
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: madmumbler]
      #71133 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:53 PM

Wunderground does have an updated graphic up and it has the storm swinging back toward the west.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

I have a feeling we'll be anxiously watching the wobbles and swings and all for the next few days. At least I will--I'm in the Florida Panhandle.

Since NHC didn't update their map at 8 pm this is probably an extrapolated map. Or, WU might have used the forecast points from the 8 pm Advisory.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 10:06 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: ERNESTO]
      #71134 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:54 PM

If the system is north of track...it is only by a little bit (No sharp deviation). I'd like to direct you to this NASA Satellite site, for the newbies...click the animate radio button, then click on Ernesto. Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
The center is within the main ball to the west. There is definately no eye forming, but the circulation appreas to have established itself all the way to the top of the thunderstorm mass and the circulation is becomming easier to identify now. This may be an indication of strenghtening too. The two deep red blobs to the east are relative to banding features.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: madmumbler]
      #71135 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:54 PM

For those interested here is a radar link from Gitmo... could be helpful in the tracking process as the storm tracks toward Cuba later on

https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Zoloft]
      #71136 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:58 PM


Quote:

Wunderground does have an updated graphic up and it has the storm swinging back toward the west.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

I have a feeling we'll be anxiously watching the wobbles and swings and all for the next few days. At least I will--I'm in the Florida Panhandle.




Please recall that the center was relocated to the east north east on the 5PM advisory...It'snot swinging back to the west, this is just a shift adjustment in the track that existed before the relocation. Note: the NHC did also identify that additional shifts in the track (Northward and eastward) may be required again on future advisories...This shift but Ernesto back in time on the timeline just a tad...It also made it hard for the hurricane center to determine true motion, so they just extrapolated the initial heading for the short term based on the previous motion heading before the relocation.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 26 2006 10:01 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Zoloft]
      #71137 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:01 PM

maybe me.. but to me it appears someone is slowing down... i know we lose sats in a little while due to eclipse til after 0600z.... the over all CDO is expanding but not moving as much as i think it was... i would think the forward movement is slowing just a little... the storm appears to have faught the shear and won... take a look at the rainbow on the floater.... also the 0000z graphics are up... at Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance FRAME 1 and Intensity 1.... anyone else see a slow down possible?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Sea Mule
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
reforming after interacting with land [Re: JMII]
      #71138 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:01 PM

excellent post...as to intensity....back in 79 hurricane Frederic meandered through the islands...weakly hobbling in the GOM....and landed in Mobile as a strong 3. So no matter what happens...a. cyclone in the GOM in the late august early september is certainly one reason I am relating the possiblities of a strong cyclone. Not wishcasting...but the August heat is here...and 90 degrees is, well....freaky when you think about it.....

hurricanes need energy. another factor that maybe one of the experts or moderators could help us with is not only the SST's at the surface...but also at how much depth? There have been no cylones this year to "cool" things off in the GOM. Hurricanes are like natural tea pots..they blow off excess heat.

I mention this to suggest that previous "histories" of hurricane intensity may not be reliable barometers for considering current levels of intensity...

Ivan
Katrina
Rita
all within the last 2 years...

coincidence? I don't think so


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #71139 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:03 PM

Actually yeah I see the slowdown. Notcied the GFDL did slow it down but still has it's sight set on Mobile Bay area... It is MUCH slower than it's earlier runs, especially the 6z run.

I am fairly surprised it didn't have a few more easterly curves with it. I was really expecting to see more models take some sort of curve towards the big bend or even possibly Crystal River area.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Frank P]
      #71140 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:05 PM

I would not be surprised if an eye formed befor ethe storm crosses Cuba..it has plenty of ocean to cross before Cuba and is expected to be a hurricane..if it crosses where the track is now, it will have no problem maintaining convection and its coc as it enters the gulf...based on intensification estimates, 18-24 hours out we should have no problem seeing the coc

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: madmumbler]
      #71142 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:09 PM

Looking at the WV loop and continuing my thought process from last night, this is what I see at this point in time....

The high over the gulf is retrograding westward, and its influence appears to be gone within the next day or two. This, unfortunately, is precisely what opens up a northward turn and prevents a westward track of the storm.

You can clearly see the impulse coming in from the pacific coast, with a quite-well-defined boundary over the NM/AZ/TX border area. The key question is - does this flatten out or does it move eastward while continuing to dig?

The ULL that looked to be bugging out west last night now is REALLY bugging out west, so that looks to be completely off the table. Unfortunate, as that would have been a storm-shredder. No such luck - by morning at present motion it will be very close to the border of MX/Belize and headed "off the map".

It appears that Ernesto is going to miss Jamaica to the north. This is a very significant shift, because small differences in track now translate into really big (200nm or more!) changes over the next 4-5 days. Part of the model problem we have at present is that the storm is not all that well "stacked" yet, and this is the same sort of jumpiness we saw last year with Katrina - anyone remember how Katrina was pointed at Appalachicola early on? As it got organized vertically, the models got a much better handle on it, and suddenly they started to move westward.

In this case, as the models seem to get a better "grasp", they appear to be moving eastward. That, given what appears to be the evolving upper air pattern, is what I'd expect - the prognostication is for the ridge to be broken down and the storm to be picked up and turned northward and eventually NE. The key question - WHEN?

One hint may be due to the high that is moving off to the west over the Gulf. It looks like its influence over Ernesto has basically been lost, thus, the track continues to shift ever-so-slightly to the north. A bit further northward and we get two events out of this - 1) the storm goes over more mountainous terrain in Cuba, which could knock it down more severely, but 2) an impact on the west coast of Florida cannot be ruled out, and the warning time will be cut materially over an impact on the northern Gulf Coast.

In any event water temperatures in the gulf and available oceanic heat content are both high - perhaps not enough to support a "super storm" but definitely more than enough to be major trouble.

I believe, as I did yesterday, that by Sunday evening we will have a far better idea of where this thing is going. If it misses Jamaica to the north then we are likely looking at a track that is significantly east of the current NHC consensus, but still within the cone. What has changed from my perspective is that I now rate the probability of a very significant fracture in the ridge over the gulf far higher than I did 24 hours ago. 24 hours back I would have bet against it, just based on the pattern over the last couple of weeks. Now, it appears more and more likely that not only will the fracture occur but that it will not rebuild materially in the next week - the stationary frontal boundary that was over the SE US has basically dissolved, and we have both a surface front being driven through from the TX panhandle and a low behind it coming off the Pacific, both being driven the jet impulse.

I see nothing that would force the storm out of the cone at this point, but realize that the cone covers the entire Gulf Coast from roughly Key West all the way to Corpus!

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #71143 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:11 PM

Utilizing the NASA site I posted a few moments ago...I identified the probable center and it's relative location in the CDO. Using the rainbow site with the tropical forecastpoints turned on, i was able to identify that the center is right where it sould be at 6 hours...but just a touch to the north of the forecast line. Ernesto is not slowing down at this point...but that is a possibility when it enters the weakness in the ridge.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *DELETED* [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71145 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:21 PM

Post deleted by stormchazer

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: stormchazer]
      #71146 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:25 PM

that forcast was issued around noon today, long before the last recon and before NHC last advisory

not saying it wont be accurate, but it is old


--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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