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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71531 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:50 PM

From the 5pm EDT discussion on Ernesto...

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71532 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:51 PM

Quote:

I'm not sure if the pressure change indicated in the latest recon fix (1007mb - 1004mb) actually represents a pressure drop, or just reflects that they extrapolated from 850mb in the latest report, compared to 700mb in the last one. The latest recon fix is also SE of the previous fix, which is odd.





Could it mean that there are multiple vortexes and that the COC is reforming?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71533 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:52 PM

Quote:

I'm not sure if the pressure change indicated in the latest recon fix (1007mb - 1004mb) actually represents a pressure drop, or just reflects that they extrapolated from 850mb in the latest report, compared to 700mb in the last one. The latest recon fix is also SE of the previous fix, which is odd.




The vortex they are measuring may be rotating around the broad area of low pressure, hence the south eastward movement.


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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71535 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:55 PM

Quote:

From the 5pm EDT discussion on Ernesto...

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.




I don't think it ever should have been moved as much to the right as Stewart did in the 5 am advisory, that was a big move for a 5 day product.


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hope
Unregistered




Re: GFDL consistency [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71536 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:56 PM

OK, help me with something. If the hurricane hunters only found max sustained winds of 35mph over a two hour period. Why does the new graph from NHC say 60mph.

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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71537 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:57 PM

Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a state of emergency for Florida.

http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsemergency/anmviewer.asp?a=130&z=1


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: hope]
      #71538 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:00 PM

Quote:

OK, help me with something. If the hurricane hunters only found max sustained winds of 35mph over a two hour period. Why does the new graph from NHC say 60mph.




The NHC is assuming that there are still 50kt winds in the NE quadrant.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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Edited by Josh Delsman (Sun Aug 27 2006 05:01 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71539 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:05 PM

The GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET have all shifted west today. The concern to mei s that it will keep Ernesto in the Gulf longer..giving it time to regenerate into a formidible hurricane.. Worse solution is GFDL. this will keep the storm in the gulf all the way to Mexico Beach in the panhandle. I prefer something that goes towards the big bend area like the NOGAPS is leaning now, mainly because the population is low in that area, therefore less damage (why< and how much did your FL home insurance policy jump this year?). the GFS would bring the storm into south FL in a remote area as a probable Tropical Storm, therefore no damage...wishful thinking..my concern is th e slow movement..I asked earlier if Ernesto could miss the trough..I would love Clarks take....this is a real crazy storm..maybe because we are all focussing on it so much because it has been a slow season thus far...lets hope this thing dies over Cuba..i still think model runs tomorrow after the NOAA aircraft data comes in will really help the models get an accurate grip..........

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 816
Loc: hollywood,florida
Max Mayfield [Re: pcola]
      #71540 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:14 PM

After just watching Max on tv,I will be preparing tonight and tommorow here in Ft lauderdale.It is going to be to close enough to give us bad weather at best.Remember prepare for the worst,And hope for the best.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71541 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:18 PM

Question, is it the Upper level low of the east coast of Florida that is pulling this storm N/W???

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71542 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:19 PM

Quote:

After just watching Max on tv,I will be preparing tonight and tommorow here in Ft lauderdale.It is going to be to close enough to give us bad weather at best.Remember prepare for the worst,And hope for the best.




I think folks should start to get those preliminary items ready batteries, flashlights, medicine, some gas in those gas cans for generators, etc. but I don't think I'd be going wild just yet. Tomorrow will ultimately be the day when the hurricane center will be in a better position to tell people what they should and should not be doing, but those are some things you should have ready from June 30th - Nov. 1st anyway.

Also, I think those of us in SFL shouldn't jump the gun just yet with the evacuations in the Keys taking place. Those folks need to start heading out early just basically because there are two lanes in and out, it gets congested easily, and there are portions of the highway that flood in even 35mph winds. So, if you're in the Keys, now would be the time to get ready to leave if:

1PM - Visitors & Non-Residents
6PM - Special Needs residents
10PM - Everyone in mobile homes

(Source: WSVN-7 5pm Broadcast)

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: MikeC]
      #71543 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:21 PM

NEW: Officials have lifted the tolls on Card Sound Rd. for those of you in the Keys.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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telmer
Unregistered




Re: GFDL consistency [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71544 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:27 PM

i missed the news confrence what did he say?

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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: pcola]
      #71545 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:27 PM

Ernesto should reorganize once it moves away from Haiti with weak shear and an upper-level anticyclone still in place over the system. Upper level outflow is also still strong despite the highly mountainous terrain of Haiti creating a more titled eye. The water temperatures in the channel between Jamaica and Cuba are close to 90F, and this should help refuel Ernesto back to a Category 1 before it makes land fall over Cuba.

How Ernesto interacts with Cuba will play a roll in how strong Ernesto will be before it brazes past the Keys and makes land fall over main portions of Florida. It appears as if the Keys will dodge another hurricane, as I wouldn't expect Ernesto to still be holding Hurricane strength once it comes offshore of Cuba.

Where Ernesto goes after this is still up in the air. The GFDL is the farthest west, showing Ernesto making landfall over the Panhandle as a Category 3. The GFS shows Ernesto making landfall much farther east over Key Largo as a tropical storm. All the other models place landfall in between these two. The farther west Ernest goes, the more time it will spend over the Gulf of Mexico and hence the stronger it will be before land fall.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #71546 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:31 PM

It looks as if, since the center is still over water and it's moving away from Haiti (albeit slowly), it's regaining a more classic signature.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #71547 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:33 PM

Just my untrained thought here, but since only part of the storm went over Haiti, actually the eye never made landfall, and this storm was torn up, won't going over Cuba have even a greater effect? Because the whole storm, eye and all will go over Cuba.

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: jbmusic]
      #71548 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:41 PM

Quote:

Just my untrained thought here, but since only part of the storm went over Haiti, actually the eye never made landfall, and this storm was torn up, won't going over Cuba have even a greater effect? Because the whole storm, eye and all will go over Cuba.




It's very mountainous in eastern Cuba, but I suspect Cuba won't have *as bad* of an effect on Ernesto.

Topographical Map of Haiti

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71549 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:44 PM

Quote:

NEW: Officials have lifted the tolls on Card Sound Rd. for those of you in the Keys.




Toll collection is being suspended statewide since Jeb signed the emergency order. We have gassed up, but don't wait until the last minute. I'm sure everyone of us in FL has seen the panic buying in the last 24 hours before an event. We will finish our storm preps tomorrow.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 313
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71550 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:48 PM

I'm sure U have all seen this from SFWMD but models are shifting east except for GFDL. Maybe one of the Mets could shed some light on one of the variabiles it is picking up on?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: GFDL consistency [Re: craigm]
      #71551 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:59 PM

Among the models considered most reliable, the GFDL and UKMET remain to the west. The GFS is east, but it currently brings Ernesto into South Florida as a tropical storm and it's important to keep in mind that it has not been very consistent from run to run. Should be interesting to see what happens when the models update in a bit. Interaction with Cuba could have a huge effect on Ernesto's future track/intensity, so things are likely to shift a bit over the next day.

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