Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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For those in S. Florida, Broward County Schools are closed Tuesday. Dade County are closed Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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In looking at the sat images, it looks to me like this thing is getting torn up. I do not see any improvement and am wondering how it could improve without any fuel. However, I have only been watching these things for a few years, so I could be wrong.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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If just gone done looking at the WV Loops again and if you look just north of where is, it looks as though the high pressure system is flattening out east to west. does look healthier right now. Could it be that he's just sitting there and spinning waiting for the shove to the west?
I could be completely off-base, but that's what I'm seeing. I would like nothing more for this thing to become a fishspinner.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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RE: the NW heading comment: I can remember one. Hurricane Elena in 1985 was a depression in the same location over eastern Cuba, and it became a TS as it was still centered over land on the north edge of Cuba. It followed the top of the island NW and out into the Gulf.
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?1985s5
I'm sure the climatic conditions were probably much different for Elena than this storm; so don't take this as wishcasting; but I think it is still wise to be cognizent of the Mariners 1-2-3 rule/graphic and never let your guard down.
Quote:
It has been a long time, I don't actually recall a strong Tropical Storm with this much energy coming off this track into the warm waters on the North Cuban coast in a NW heading...
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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New advisory..nothing changed..40 mph
At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Ernesto was estimated near latitude 20.7 north...longitude 76.1
west or about 15 miles...25 km...east-southeast of Holguin Cuba.
Still heading Northwest..remember though...no recon data
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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where it is at now and going the way it is how much longer does have over Cuba in your opinion (anyone else can feel free to jump in also).?
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W.D. Duncan
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force2005
Verified CFHC User
BANNED
Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
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Back door Rex is a situation when a systems is off the coast and slides back to the west due to influence from the east. the high pressure along the coast and the low ridging to the north, will pull alont the two. When it reaches the higher latitudes, the system will feel the effects of the high pressure to it's east, and will force to the West. That is what is called a backdoor rex solution.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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It would seem to me that 20.7 N and 76.1 West is very near the coast...this storm has much more structure now than it did this morning even...
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doug
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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This storm is so far from the forecasted points its not normal and ... it looks like it's barely moving...
and...as for that loop... that upper level low is like a tug boat pulling it a long..
good point here on no recon over Cuba...
shame, we really could use data right now..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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gainesville, fl
Unregistered
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Any opinion on whether the track might be a bit too fast, in terms of time? For personal reasons, it would be better if the storm passed over on Thursday or Friday, instead of Wednesday. I guess closer to the weekend is probably best for most people.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I'd say it'll be off Cuba later on tonight. Around 6ish. Assuming Cuba doesn't kill it (we hope it does) Me personally I think it's either stalled right now or reforming to the NW. But i'm no met. This is only my opinion You should heed the warnings of the before you listen to us!
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
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I just ran an errand and made a point to do some local ground observations in Palm Beach county;
The 5 or 6 gas stations I passed already have huge lines and I even saw on small indy gas station out of fuel.
Local grocery (Publix) seems to still be well stocked on water and base supplies, yet has large check out lines.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I don't understand that one..
Didnt they expect that ULL to its north to move out of there already and I don't see that it has..
How can you have zero shear closer in if that ULL is still there?
Can someone answer my question please.. a bit confused.
As for reformation.. could be.. might not.. maybe.. have seen storms bounce off of Cuba in a different place than
previously expected..
You just never know what they will do when they come off land..
Wait and watch but someone explain the zero shear with that ULL there?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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Quote:
Assuming Cuba doesn't kill it (we hope it does) Me personally I think it's either stalled right now or reforming to the NW.
It looks like it has stalled to me also. It still has significant outflow and the thunderstorm activity seems to be increasing, but forward progress is just not there, IMO. Like the said, the COC is ill-defined at best. It would not surprise me if we don't see some significant track changes if it holds together for a while longer.
Jack
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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JArsenal
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Greenacres, Florida
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They are also closed in Palm Beach County Tuesday, and not sure if they'll be open on Wednesday.
Jane
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I just looped the latest WV and it appears that the ULL has made good progress to the West and is about to be in position to help ventilate the system. Outflow appears to be improving in most quadrants except for perhaps the SW quadrant.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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MikenHoliday
Unregistered
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It sure appears to be stalled. Everything going on above it and to the west seems t o be moving to the west. Do you think this will have an affect on the storm and start making it head more west? No reason to really sit there is it?
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Sorry about the post earlier..wrong model run...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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vees
Unregistered
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Does anyone have access to data from Cuban weather channels (radio or TV) and or radar images? There must be info coming out of Cuba, no?
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.22N 81.56W
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I'm a reading it wrong or do a majority of the models seem to favor a more western track (through Florida) than the 's? I'm never sure when these things are run and which ones are the most updated or reliable. Looking at , it seems that the track is very similar to the , while the UKMET, BAMM, A98E, and LBAR are farther west - yet every track I see today moves it out farther from Florida. Is it likely we'd see any more moves back to the west (which seems like it would based on what I see) or could this end up a non-event for most of Florida (here's hoping)?
By the way, I know to trust the over anything or anyone else. I just wonder why there seems to be (to me) a disparity).
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