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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: inHISgrip]
      #72212 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM

Quote:

11pm track. NO change




Actually it looks like it has changed, but only about 50 miles or so.

As for the tweaking... the NHC says it's still onshore, so they apparently didn't tweak it enough to look at the satellite image.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: NewWatcher]
      #72213 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM

A shift W but not much: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025124.shtml?3day?large

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72214 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:58 PM

The 11:00 is out, they are saying it is still about 20 miles inland. No major changes, same intensity, same direction. They got the day wrong, saying it will be over water "early Wednesday morning".

I do not think that Ernie looks good at all right now, but as others have pointed out, both on radar and shortwave IR, the core is still intact and there is definite circulation. Not time to let down our guard.

Bill


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: NewWatcher]
      #72215 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM

Yep, looks like they went with the GFDL. Hold intensity where it is and wait until morning to see what happens. I think once the circulation gets free of the coast, it will start to recover. Do not expect anything rapid, however.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Mon Aug 28 2006 11:01 PM)


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: inHISgrip]
      #72216 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM

Not true, it has been moved west. Compare it to this graphic at 8pm
www.randyroberson.com/1.gif

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Rasvar]
      #72217 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:05 PM

Something that may come into play now...but is also something I also hope folks are keeping tabs on for post season analysis. Track wise, the GFS was the first to see a Florida threat in a model run a few nights ago...In it's run...it also saw the track we have seen for the last 24 hours...That run, other than the decoupling...did pretty goodon the track. The GFDL saw the same not much later, the others did not pick up on the path of the last 24 hours...but started falling into a Florida threat thereafter. Just an interesting note. Who knows, as far as track goes, those two models on those two runs may have ended up with the best long term track performance of all of Ernesto's model runs when all is said and done...

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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72218 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:08 PM

WOW did everyone see that blow up that came off shore between Naples and Ft. Myers over the last two hours? It looked stronger the Ernesto

While our little buddy has fallen apart I wouldn't rule out a minimal Cat 1 at landfall just yet, the core is trying to rebuild and there is a TON of moisture to the E and S of the center. Now it may not have time to wrap around but it's going to dump a bunch of rain on FL for sure.

As for direction/future track: take a look at the ULL immediately north of the system - its going to pull the system N then drag it W. This is what the NHC center was calling for 6 hours ago but thankfully its lagged behind, thus causing the core to remain over land longer which weakend things considerably. However currently outflow looks improved but this may be a case of too little / too late. This has been one diffcult system to pin down, this could be case study in tropical developement.

It will be very interesting to see what we've got come Tuesday AM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72219 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:09 PM

The track at this point is very important for a lot of reasons. IF it comes off of Cuba, and it looks to be doing that right now -- hits those warm waters and is able to reorganize itself, we may see a somewhat better storm. Where the storm goes as far as direction --- and it's still moving to the WNW, btw, it will affect a whole lot more people.

As far as mets not being in here tonight, Tony Cristaldi just posted what every met in Florida has been saying...don't let your guard down.

Do not write this one off just yet, my friend. We've already seen the shift to left that many of us non-mets had called for.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dem05]
      #72221 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 PM

11PM mentioned that "future westward adjustments are in the offing"...the High still has its axis at 80-81w, which means the west north westward motion will persist for a while. Hmmm, I'm thinking they would like both coasts to be prepared in case the models are incorrect or they are correct. Florida is long, but not that wide...remember, simple changes can make big landfall point differences along the coast.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72222 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:13 PM

I remember when Katrina came off of Florida and entered the Gulf, the NHC was telling us "we expect a turn to the North in the next 12 hours." It didn't happen NEARLY as soon as they predicted and instead of going back into the NE panhandle of FL, Katrina went over to LA/MS.

What if the same kind of thing occurs this time? I remember when they had Ivan going into the Tampa area. Ivan had other ideas and moved West longer than the NHC thought.

These things are so unpredictable. AT this point, I wonder what will be left of Ernesto after this land interaction. Ern looks sick right now. But, we all know what ripe conditions and 90 degree water can do!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72224 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:16 PM

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW Ernesto TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS
COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE
OFFING.
I think we have to wait and see when the high moves. It is still in the same place it has been all day. The trough may not be as strong as progged and is having a hard time breaking down the high. If it doesnt move soon this storm will be in gulf.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dem05]
      #72225 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 PM

I'm glad you posted that because that is a very important part of the forecast: if it continues on a W/NW track once it clears Florida, that means more time over water and more time to reorganize itself, and that is definitely not a best-case scenario for anyone on either coast.
Don't get me wrong: I have no reason to disagree with the NHC as far as intensity -- it's just something that we really need to watch.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72226 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM

This is an exerpt from the WCFL hurricane local statement which I think pretty much sums this situation up.

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: SirCane]
      #72227 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM

No really juicy nuggets in the 11:00 discussion that seems to be unexpected. Looks like it is a good time to hit the sack. Wake up and see what happened in the morning. My guess is we either have a dead parrot or we have a system getting better organized and, hopefully, a better grasp on what he will do. Where is Bert when you need him to keep Ernie focused on the task?

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: SirCane]
      #72229 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:21 PM

I think - but I'm not sure - that the storm front coming down from the middle US is projected to be very strong --but that could change, too.

These storms are very much a pain in the neck.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MissMary
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dem05]
      #72230 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:22 PM

My dad is hung up on a miami entrance and jax/daytona exit. I honestly see a southern tip of venice/sarasota entrance and JAX exit. Looking at the radars I can see Ernesto jogging a little to the west more then wnw. The coc is emerging off cuba and although he's torn apart a bit, I really see him strengthening. I don't believe it will be a lot of intesification, probably a minimal cat 1 hurricane upon landfall. Although, if they keep shifting this storm west (which I find propable at this point), he'll emerge out into the gulf.. a haven for Ernesto. The warm waters of the gulf will allow him to better organize and then we may be looking at a more stronger cat 1 or maybe even cat 2.

A miami entrance at this point is far unlikely to me. With the current movement it just doesnt look possible for it to enter @ the miami area. Although, with hurricanes you never know (Ivan? Charley?) I still remember the forecast of Charley going right over southern tampa and my family flipping out basically because a major hurricane was heading towards us. Within hours the track shifted signifcantly to a more southern entrance and we got barely TS force winds from him. I wouldn;t be suprised if come 5 am/11 am we have a storm heading for the west coast. Just my 2 cents.


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72232 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:25 PM

Ernesto has been the biggest pain in the neck to track out of any of the storms I've tracked over the past 10 years. I don't remember seeing a forecasted track ever change from Texas all the way to Miami in a matter of a couple days. That's crazy.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72233 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:32 PM

The only thing I could see now is something forming in the gulf in a few days.And that is a streach.Maybe the panhandle,but I will sleep well tonight,and I did not think I would just a few hours ago.I am a happy camper!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: SirCane]
      #72234 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:33 PM

I don't ever recall a five day forecast that came anywhere close to Texas. It was aiming for the Gulf; but never an official forecast anywhere near Texas.

--------------------
Jim


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: SirCane]
      #72235 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:36 PM

Tx? LOL was never TX cause anything after 72 hrs is up in the air.. the models have done a decent job...in the short term...the GFS and the GFDL agreed on a path near Haiti..but they were slightly off and went over it..then they said hug the N coast or the south coast of Cuba and it went in the middle...now for the past 36 hrs (within the 72hr frame) have been saying florida....NHC is on the right side..and will adjust after the 0z runs come in.....If this system stays out in the gulf alittle longer and makes landfall N of Ft Myers..then a min hurricane isnt out of the question cause tomorrow night we might get our pressure drop.....then again..Cuba might have really ________ this storm....but didnt we all think it would??? like it has mountains we all know!

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