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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72107 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:13 PM

Just an FYI...The SFWMD model site has zoomed into Ernesto and Florida now... It is much, much easier to see the models and their track overlay on the state.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Rasvar]
      #72109 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:16 PM

Quote:

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.




SWFMWD has changed some.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72110 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:17 PM

NHC will adjust again slightly more W...the GFDL is their model of choice...especially in the short term..and when its target is S florida....I wouldnt say they are wishcasting though.... anyways the GFDL did go slightly west...about 25 miles...
Some (a few posts back) said that info isnt going into the GFDL cause of no recon flights....thats not really true... as recon will sample the air around the storm...and Im sure has over the Bahamas...but more data will go into the OZ runs tonight.....I agree with the Viper model as it is almost as accurate as the GFDL..along side the GFS.

Edited by scottsvb (Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM)


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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72111 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM

Between 5pm and 8pm Ernesto moved .1N and .5W an obvious westward jog. Looks like Ernesto is losing the influence of the ULL to its north west and is gaining the influence of steering from the ridge over the SE.

Likely track shift west at 11pm. Also, dry air and shear look to be a problem for any intensification once back over water, per the latest CIMSS wind shear map.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72112 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM

One thing that we have not really had is a chance for a full circle sampling of this storm. There has always been at least one quad obstructed. As he gets a little further away from Cuba, having a good 360 degree sampling of the environment will be very helpful.

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72113 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:23 PM

Scott -- I picked this out of the 8:00pm advisory:

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS Ernesto HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


If Ernesto is just coming off the coast -- and it appears that he is -- will this WNW motion allow for those models to verify?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72114 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:25 PM

Quote:

NHC will adjust again slightly more W...the GFDL is their model of choice...especially in the short term..and when its target is S florida....I wouldnt say they are wishcasting though.... anyways the GFDL did go slightly west...about 25 miles...
Some (a few posts back) said that info isnt going into the GFDL cause of no recon flights....thats not really true... as recon will sample the air around the storm...and Im sure has over the Bahamas...but more data will go into the OZ runs tonight.....I agree with the Viper model as it is almost as accurate as the GFDL..along side the GFS.




I don't believe VIPER is anywhere near as accurate as GFDL or the GFS. I personally wouldn't trust a model run by a news station right about now. I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Rasvar]
      #72115 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:26 PM

Quote:

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.




It's finally up. They must be just running slow.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Vipir [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72117 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM

Hello Everyone Again! I was hoping not to pay you all a visit this season... Guess that was wishful thinking.
Anyway, do you guys have a link to the VIPIR track you're talking about? I would like to see how close they are saying it's going to get to me.
Thanks!
Angie

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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hawg92
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72118 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM

Quote:

I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.




That is exactly why they WILL shift their track if it is necessary and foreseen. Right now the NHC track is east of almost all the models. They will have to justify that if they do not adjust it correctly.

Jack

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72119 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM



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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72120 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:30 PM

Quote:

The Weather channel just said not to be surprised if the cone shifted left again. Then he repeated the "it may shift left" again part.




I'm gonna go out on a limb, well maybe not so far out on a limb as of now the way the models look and say landfall at Marco Island. Similar to where Wilma made landfall last year.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #72121 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.




That is exactly why they WILL shift their track if it is necessary and foreseen. Right now the NHC track is east of almost all the models. They will have to justify that if they do not adjust it correctly.

Jack




The NHC doesn't just make decisions off of forecast models. You must understand this. There are tens (if not hundreds) of different dynamic variables involved in the official forecasts. Like I believe Colleen A. said a while back, they are privileged to a lot more information than the general public, so I would think they will justify their decisions in the next forecast package. Just stick tight.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72122 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM

In an attempt to clear up any confusion about VIPIR, it is not a model. VIPIR stands for(Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar). Those who are interested can read about it at http://www.baronservices.com/solutions/broadcast/display_solutions/vipir.php

Best wishes to all.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #72123 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 PM

Usually the NHC waits two runs before they make major changes unless they see something. This storm is one of the first I've seen them make so many swings so quickly. My guess is that they will move 50 +/- miles west and see what the trend is after recon info is inputed into the models.

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Daniel294
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: The Bear]
      #72124 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:33 PM

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Daniel294]
      #72126 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




That was stated at 5am this morning, I believe. I think the possibility is still there, due to the hurricane watch still being issued. I think the hurricane center is afraid to instill panic, because that's harder to manage than concern.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: 7 Deadly Zins]
      #72127 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM

Quote:

Between 5pm and 8pm Ernesto moved .1N and .5W an obvious westward jog. Looks like Ernesto is losing the influence of the ULL to its north west and is gaining the influence of steering from the ridge over the SE.

Likely track shift west at 11pm. Also, dry air and shear look to be a problem for any intensification once back over water, per the latest CIMSS wind shear map.




I take issue with their 8pm forecast track -- they've got a "jog" in it now (if you compare it to the 5pm) and whether it's just compensating for no recon data from the airplane or what, I have a hard time believing it's NOT going to be shifted west again. If you run the graphics archive between the 5pm and 8pm, that little "jog" just doesn't make sense. It almost looks like it should be running with a more westerly track, like the models show.

Then again, an argument could be made to say it might make it's eastern curve sooner.

Ugh.

Glad I've got the boards up!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Daniel294]
      #72128 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 PM

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




No kidding, look what Charley did to us 2 years ago! After him, I know these storms can do ANYTHING now and nobody will know until it makes landfall how strong it will be.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72129 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:40 PM

Let me clear something up really quick before this place sets itself on fire :

The NHC will look at both the models and other information to form a "track". They put information INTO the computers, which then generate a track. You know what happens next. If the NHC sees a trend in the models, i.e. shifting to the left or the right over several runs, they will most likely change the track.

Remember: almost every part of Florida is in the "cone of error" -- therefore, they will have room to shift it back to the left if they feel the need.

Okay. I hope that helps....

Now everyone go take a deep breath. We're all here for the same reason.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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