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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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hawg92
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72130 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:41 PM

Quote:

The NHC doesn't just make decisions off of forecast models. You must understand this. There are tens (if not hundreds) of different dynamic variables involved in the official forecasts. Like I believe Colleen A. said a while back, they are privileged to a lot more information than the general public, so I would think they will justify their decisions in the next forecast package. Just stick tight.




I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided. The track will shift if the NHC believes their guidance and no EOC pressure will prevent it. So far, the track has shifted from TX to LA to AL to FL and within FL west coast to east coast and now it seems back to west coast is possible again. Who knows, this thing could end up being another Big Bend storm, it has been so unpredictable so far.

Jack

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72131 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:44 PM

if you look in the "cone" all of south florida is in it. if they move it east or west all of south florida will still be in it. if it has to go more west for those not in the cone that is still 36-48 hours. i would be more concerned about the intensity than the shift west for now. JMHO

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Daniel294]
      #72132 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:45 PM

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




What really scares me? That at the risk of not "scaring" people the TV isn't hammering home hard enough that this storm COULD very well blow up into a Cat 4 or 5, easily. I mean, we've seen with both Andrew and Charley how storms pretty close to land can really intensify quickly. And Andrew's anniversary passed with barely a mention because of the Katrina coverage.

We are in peak season. My neighbors here in Rotonda think I'm nuts because I boarded up yesterday. I'm the ONLY one boarded up on my street right now.

I have a feeling that will change tomorrow morning and I will not seem to be so crazy. My dh was watching tv tonight and Wayne Sallade was telling people over the weekend during a TV interview that they didn't have to board up. WTF??? That's like telling people it's okay to ignore this thing???

Back to topic, it will NOT surprise me (in fact, because of SSTs, low shear, and all the other previously stated reasons) if it spins up. In fact, it would surprise me if I woke up tomorrow morning and there weren't serious track/intensity modifications with this thing.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #72134 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:46 PM

Quote:

I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided. The track will shift if the NHC believes their guidance and no EOC pressure will prevent it. So far, the track has shifted from TX to LA to AL to FL and within FL west coast to east coast and now it seems back to west coast is possible again. Who knows, this thing could end up being another Big Bend storm, it has been so unpredictable so far.

Jack




I think the big difference between now and the Texas -> SE Florida situation we've been facing thus far, is time! We've gone from 120 hours out to 24 hours out. This is definitely a different situation, and should be under much different consideration. I think the reality of the track being shifted any more than 20-30 miles to the west is unlikely, as the environment has been setup, and the models that haven't performed too well with this storm anyway.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: hawg92]
      #72135 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:51 PM

Quote:


I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided.
Jack




That's SOP here in FL. It has nothing to do with FEMA, it has to do with the ONE thing Fl government does exquisitely well is plan for storms; it tells FEMA what and where it wants it, not the other way around. (I'm a native, lived here all my life.)

Before Charley, there were supplies and support services staged by the northern border waiting the order to move in. Jeb (and others before him, especially post-Andrew) have their act together when it comes to storms. My dh works for Sarasota county, and they've been monitoring this thing for as long as we all have. They were planning over the weekend to activate the county EOC until the shift to the east.

I imagine a west shift in course will set county blackberries buzzing in the a.m. *LOL*

They use Impact Weather, and I've been telling my dh stuff hours before Impact emails them about it. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72136 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:54 PM

You must remember something: if they shift the track to the left, that gives Ernesto move time over warmer water...which is not good for anyone.

You cannot ignore the models .... the NHC uses them for a reason. I've seen this happen so many times it's not even funny.

Why don't we just concentrate on what the storm is doing right now instead of arguing about who is right or wrong about the models, please? Thank you.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: rhendryx]
      #72137 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:55 PM

Speaking of VIPIR, does anyone have a link to Channel 8's VIPIR model/loop here in Tampa (not the radar link, but rather, the model)? I've never been able to find it on the internet; I've generally had to wait for Steve Jerve's report. Personally, I've found their VIPIR to be pretty accurate when the storms are close to us. I can distinctly remember a few times over the last couple of years when VIPIR called subtle, and some not so subtle, jogs/turns before the models and NHC did (or had time to).

Also, does anyone have a good link that shows current/apparent storm tracks overlayed with the official track? I had a good bookmark a while back and can't find it.

Thanks.


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72140 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:59 PM

With all the discussion about models and forecast tracks, it might be a good to revisit some wise advice -- focus on more than just "skinny black line," regardless of where it ends up. Wilma's center passed many miles west and north of the Fort Lauderdale and Miami metro areas, yet inflicted considerable damage. The comparison may not really be valid here because Wilma was a "big" storm with a massive windfield, but I think it bears repeating.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Geoff]
      #72142 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:00 PM

dynamics are not in place for it too grow into a 4 or 5...if on the west coast, you may see a 1 or a 2 if it stays over the gulf and takes a track over the gulf.....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72145 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:04 PM

Its not just a storm but model output for many things......its reliable....we arnt telling you the Viper will be right..we are saying overall the NHC will adjust to the overall model picture....besides..you will probably get the worst of it cause you will be on the east side of the system if it comes up thru floridabay...but right now its looking at Marco...and still you will get heavy squall bands and isolated tornados.....

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: saluki]
      #72146 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:06 PM

Quote:

With all the discussion about models and forecast tracks, it might be a good to revisit some wise advice -- focus on more than just "skinny black line," regardless of where it ends up. Wilma's center passed many miles west and north of the Fort Lauderdale and Miami metro areas, yet inflicted considerable damage. The comparison may not really be valid here because Wilma was a "big" storm with a massive windfield, but I think it bears repeating.




AND if you're on the "right" side of the storm (as opposed to the left side of the storm) it's the "bad" side to be on. So even if you aren't "close" to the SBL, if you're right of it, you will have more to be concerned about than those to the "left" of it.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Geoff]
      #72147 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:08 PM

Just out of curiosity, I thought VIPIR incorporated the BAMS model into its' configuration. (This is according to both Baron Services and Silicon Graphics). So, in a way, VIPIR is a model as well as a visualization tool. (It might not be the model itself, but it certainly does use an actual model for its forecasting.)

As to a link to Jerve's VIPIR, I don't know of any exact links, but you can go here to see live streaming video from WFLA's 24-hour weather channel, which I've caught showing VIPIR once or twice tonight, though not regularly. If you get lucky it might have what you need. (Be advised it contains advertisements, like a regular television channel, so you could be there awhile until it shows what you might want to see - if it does.)

--------------------
Londovir


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72148 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:09 PM

Folks, I realize that tensions will start running high, but I urge you to remember your ettiquite and remember that everyone here has a common bond. Treat others with respect, and follow the forum rules, and the next 48 hours will go smoothly.

Thank you for your assistance in this matter.

--Pratch


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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Londovir]
      #72149 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM

Maybe Jason Kelly who posts on here can do a short reply on the Viper. I recall reading that he helped to develop it I believe.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
IF he stays over warmer water longer [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72150 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM

Norcross talked about that tonight.. if it was to move towards the lower keys and the gulf and maintain a wnw track he could stay over warmer water longer and become stronger... path between shortest distance right now makes it harder for him to rev up..

Tired too of the model discussion. My model is better than your model..etc..

What I would give to talk to a few of the old timers I used to talk to who would make forecasts by hand progs... not based on which model was behaving better or worse.

Not easy working at NHC now days and trying to explain why you went with one model vs the other.

Keep watching... fascinating entertainment tonight... hoping it doesn't terrorize the heck out of us tomorrow afternoon.

Yep.. better safe than sorry and can talk over what happened or didn't on Thursday.. if we have electric...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: tpratch]
      #72151 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:13 PM

i just wanted to remind every one the chat room is open for business for a more faster paced discussion point your browesr to irc.flhurricane.com or click on chat on the side

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72154 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:14 PM

I maybe changing my mind on this storm.He is a mess right now.I feel much better now about any impact on my area.Still a little to soon to write him off,But he does not look good at all.If it is mainly a rain maker,we have the mountains of Hati and Cuba to thank.If it does not do something very soon,this will not be a big deal for anyone.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: IF he stays over warmer water longer [Re: LoisCane]
      #72155 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:18 PM

Quote:


Keep watching... fascinating entertainment tonight... hoping it doesn't terrorize the heck out of us tomorrow afternoon.

Yep.. better safe than sorry and can talk over what happened or didn't on Thursday.. if we have electric...




I have a generator and an Alltel air card. If I've got gas and a signal, I'm on the air. *LOL*

That's how I found out where Charley was after the power went out -- only then it was back-up dial-up (pre-air card) through AOhell.

I'm praying that the fact that I'm totally ready this time around means it will miss my neck of the woods. *LOL*

But I'm not liking the modeling trends overall to the west. Just one wouldn't bother me. But to have several of them moving really makes me want to stay up and watch TV late tonight...

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72156 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:19 PM

Ernesto is looking bad...i doubt it has emerged over water and it looks to be staying on the coast...actually, the thunderstorm complex that just came off the coast near naples looks worst, and just as big.......

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72157 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:24 PM

Local PB met said Ernesto is still over Cuba abd getting battered. Forcast hasn't changed, he just thought it was a good sign.

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