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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72158 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:29 PM

question..if Earnesto weakens to a dpression, and is a shallow storm, could he miss the trough? Often the weaker storms are not as affected by these troughs if they are shallow and get caught up in the low level flow....any mets thoughts?

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72159 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM

I just noticed this map of the high pressure of Georgia and thne storm is not going to the N as long as that ridge is in the way. I know the ridge is expected to breakdown but would not be something if the ridge held its own. That would really be interesting.


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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72160 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM

Quote:

I maybe changing my mind on this storm.He is a mess right now.I feel much better now about any impact on my area.Still a little to soon to write him off,But he does not look good at all.If it is mainly a rain maker,we have the mountains of Hati and Cuba to thank.If it does not do something very soon,this will not be a big deal for anyone.




Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said basically the same thing a few minutes ago- that if he stays onshore much longer, there probably won't be much to worry about. On a side note, they also explained that recon planes are flying back and forth across the northern edge of Cuba (even showed the flight path) and that they had gotten a 37mph gust.

--------------------
Florida Native


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72161 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM

This looks like a pretty well-defined COC moving off Cuba.Maybe not THAT well defined, but a COC nonetheless.

www.randyroberson.com/bd.jpg

Edited by TampaRand (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:41 PM)


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72162 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM

Ernesto looking really ragged tonite, think he's close to depression status, if not already. Looks like the ULL to his NW & interaction with the Cuban mainland is doing him in right now. If we don't see an explosion of deep T-storms soon, then he won't be much when he arrives in Fla late tomorrow nite. The 11pm discussion should be real interesting.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Neilt
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72163 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:37 PM

Ernesto really seems to be moving in a more westerly direction now. I question whether it will take that northerly turn directly up the florida peninsula. If it does survive cuba, this could be a big problem. If the storm emerges off of cuba farther west than anticipated, and still intact, it could have more time to regenerate over the warm gulf waters before making that move north and northeast heading to the western coast of florida. Ernesto has been unpredictable from the get go, so i wouldn't be suprised if the track does shift west !

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Neilt]
      #72168 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:40 PM

If you take a look at the radar in Camaguey, it still has a pretty good COC and great banding features. I think the center is fixing to move offshore, and once it does that, it'll start to get its act together again. How quickly is anyones guess at this point.

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MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #72171 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM

Quote:

I just noticed this map of the high pressure of Georgia and thne storm is not going to the N as long as that ridge is in the way. I know the ridge is expected to breakdown but would not be something if the ridge held its own. That would really be interesting.





Maybe because you're in OK, but to the rest of us possibly in the path, "interesting" isn't the word I'd use. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72172 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM

Ernesto will only make me happy when we've written our last post about it. It ain't passed us till it passed us.

Besides I think the NHC is going to be very careful. If they call it a TD, everyone will drop their guard.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #72173 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 PM

Unless the low level core is completely wiped out, I doubt they drop it to a TD at 11. I think it might have been in worse shape this morning. I think they would wait until recon can get into what is suspected to be the center. So if it comes off and is in bad shape tomorrow morning, they may downgrade it. I don't think they will at 11, even though I am not sure if it has even been a TS at all today,

--------------------
Jim


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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72174 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 PM

I dont think it will be downgraded to a depression. Last tropical update on the wx channel said they were having gust reading around 47mph. Regarding the 11pm update, I know there's gonna be a shift west in the forecast, but how far west will be what I am interested to see.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72178 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:54 PM

Here is a link to the VIPER run which tracks the storm along the SW coast and inland near Tampa. You have to wade through a minute or two of streaming video to see the run from today. While its good news that Ernie is ragged tonight and hasn't emerged from land yet, it may only be a temporary blessing. For the folks on the FL east coast, you may be out of the woods. People on the SW gulf coast and keys should keep watching. All model tracks have shifted west and the actual movement of Ernie has been slightly faster and more westward than NHC predictions over the last 9 hrs. As to it being a TD - its been that way for the last 12 hrs since getting battered by the mtns over Haiti and SE Cuba. This storm has all the ingredients to organize once back over the water. In fact, the GFDL model that the NHC heavily relies on doesn't take Ernie offshore unti 8 am tomorrow. Let's all go to sleep and wait till tomorrow morning to see if Ernie lives or dies.

http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news.apx.-content-articles-CBD-2006-08-28-0017.html

--------------------
RJB


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72179 - Mon Aug 28 2006 09:58 PM

Quote:

If you take a look at the radar in Camaguey, it still has a pretty good COC and great banding features. I think the center is fixing to move offshore, and once it does that, it'll start to get its act together again. How quickly is anyones guess at this point.



I am in agreement. It is not moving west YET. Look at the Dvorak I put up a few minutes ago and that is not west.-It is clearly NNW Josh, you are right, the COC DOES still look pretty defined and I see a defined spot in this offshore already and the banding is still pretty decent and convecting, albeit, not closed and the center a little open on the South, but once it moves the LLC offshore....... I would not be too fast, some of you, to write this off just yet. It has overcome a lot more adversity earlier than in the last 12 hours.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72180 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:01 PM

Chill out everyone. Read the Rules for a bit to change the scene some...

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72181 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:05 PM

The 9:50 Tropical Update on TWC, Lyons said the COC is still onshore, not offshore. And looking at the Caguey (sp?) radar, it still looks like it's onshore.

It's going to be hurry up and wait and see all night, basically.

Those who haven't boarded up yet might want to catch some sleep, because you'll need it tomorrow. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72182 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM

OK I am definitely expecting to see that west shift sooner than later. Inland tropical storm watch is up for POLK.HARDEE.DESOTO.HIGHLANDS.CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES.

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When it rains, it pours...


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Ron Basso]
      #72183 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM

Quote:

Here is a link to the VIPER run which tracks the storm along the SW coast and inland near Tampa. You have to wade through a minute or two of streaming video to see the run from today. While its good news that Ernie is ragged tonight and hasn't emerged from land yet, it may only be a temporary blessing. For the folks on the FL east coast, you may be out of the woods. People on the SW gulf coast and keys should keep watching. All model tracks have shifted west and the actual movement of Ernie has been slightly faster and more westward than NHC predictions over the last 9 hrs. As to it being a TD - its been that way for the last 12 hrs since getting battered by the mtns over Haiti and SE Cuba. This storm has all the ingredients to organize once back over the water. In fact, the GFDL model that the NHC heavily relies on doesn't take Ernie offshore unti 8 am tomorrow. Let's all go to sleep and wait till tomorrow morning to see if Ernie lives or dies.

http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news.apx.-content-articles-CBD-2006-08-28-0017.html




The track that VIPIR showed has Ernesto moving signifigantly West and then recurving back to the NE into what appears to be the Tampa Bay/ Sarasota area. I don't know...VIPIR nailed Charley, but that is a drastic change from what the NHC has forcasted.

--------------------
Matt


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: The Bear]
      #72184 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM

I don't suspect any westward shift will be very large. As a guess, I would say they adjust it to be in line with the latest GFDL. Still on the right side of the envelope, though. If the model trend persists, then it will shift further in the morning. I don't expect another surprise like the other day when there was a major shift on one advisory.

--------------------
Jim


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72185 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM

Models are moving west again, expect the NHC to adjust their track accordingly. Think the center will come in on the SW coast, but the FL east coast is not off the hook as the worst weather will be to the right of the center as it tracks up the state.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #72186 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM

Really anxious for the next update at 11.
The morning will come soon and a new day with lots of thoughts on Ernesto. There are many of you that I have seeen for the last 3 or 4 years that have great input and calm those that have fears and worrries. Steve Lyons jsut said that once it comes off can regain quickly so we will have to just wait and see.

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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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