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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #72187 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM

Quote:

Models are moving west again, expect the NHC to adjust their track accordingly. Think the center will come in on the SW coast, but the FL east coast is not off the hook as the worst weather will be to the right of the center as it tracks up the state.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

TG




Seems to me that each of those models has a different starting point.
Why would that be?


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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #72188 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:14 PM

Yea, that SFWMD map is very interesting. I have had that on my blog for the past 2 days watching it on comparison with the others.

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: engicedave]
      #72190 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:22 PM

Quote:

Seems to me that each of those models has a different starting point.
Why would that be?




Different run times. They go from 00Z, 6z, 12Z, and 18Z model runs, and some run twice a day, some four time a day.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72192 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:28 PM

it just looks like the thing is falling apart to me, is it just me?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

--------------------
~jess~



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #72194 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 PM

That wave looks better than Ernie now.Can anyone give me a real reason to believe in this Ernie guy?I just see it falling apart.I am thinking now it will be just rain and a little gusty winds for Florida.Maybe I am missing something.Where are all the mets????

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: JustMe]
      #72195 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 PM

The models are definitely moving the track back west and once again calling for a SW FL landfall. Just what makes landfall remains to be seen. This is not a great storm, but could have some, no, a fair, chance at re-intensification. The high over GA will eventually move off and the flow from the east is less severe, opening the door to cross NE across Central FL. The steering currents are decidely to the west, although, this system hugging Cuba's coast when it does start to move that way, could challenge it even further. But I have seen this little system take a beating, as have most of you guys over the last 2 1/2 days. All this is dependent upon the storm holding together hugging the coastline, but a westerly move is indicated and expect NHC to move accordingly at 11. I am hearing this from a wide variety of sources using Viper and others.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: West FL Jess]
      #72196 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:35 PM

i think if you look at the shortwave sat images you will see that the core is still intact. The overall structure is ragged outside of the core. As long as the core stays intact, once it gets back over water it can get its act back together. Also if ernie gets past about 81degrees longitude we are looking at a west coast storm. Even now it would have to head nnw immediately to go in where NHC has it progged. But that is just my unproffesional opinion. Looks like it is going to be a long day tomorrow waiting to see what ernie does.

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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 49
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72197 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:37 PM

Okay folks. By no means am I encouraging anyone to let their guard down, but I think you can just about stick a fork in Ernesto based on the latest IR satellite. The circulation has been severely disrupted, and what's left continues to make westward jogs, keeping it over land. I still think a southwest coast of Florida landfall is extremely likely, but what ends up there is going to be a tropical storm at best, in my humble opinion. Just too many factors working against the storm right now to allow it to re-intensify, even if conditions are generally favorable.

Many thanks for all the quality posts over the last few days. It sure has been an interesting ride so far (the tropical understatement of the year). We'll see how it plays out.


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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dolfinatic]
      #72198 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:38 PM

I said that a about an hour ago, I just don't see how that track will work, I think we will see a change at the 11pm

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: EMS]
      #72200 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:40 PM

IR satelite photos are very deceptive in trying to decern a circulation. I would not write the system off becuase of a bad IR presentation. Too much of IR can lose details that can be seen in visible.

--------------------
Jim


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: jbmusic]
      #72201 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:43 PM

I emailed a meteorologist I know from my home town and his station has VIPIR and it called Charley, Katrina and several others right on the money. I know this is a different storm but I want to see where his VIPIR system has the storm going. As for the NHC on their forecast we will see if it shifs west in about 15mins.

--------------------


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: EMS]
      #72203 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:44 PM


One of the mantras I preach when it comes to "weakling" TC's is:

convection =overrated
vorticity = underrated

The Camguey radar still shows a very intact low to mid level circulation with Ernie, even though the surface circulation has been pretty much wiped out. IF Ernie can get his lumbering buttocks offshore the north coast and push a little away from land, I have pretty good confidence that you will see a halfway decent comeback.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: jbmusic]
      #72204 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 PM

The track right now is not that big of a deal,Because if it is just a little wind and rain,no big deal.I was happy to see people getting prepared in my area today.It was a good dry run.We have been very lucky so far this year,I hope our luck holds out,we need the break.The fact that there are not many mets in here and only a couple mods,says a lot.

Edited by tpratch (Mon Aug 28 2006 11:04 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #72205 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:49 PM

Quote:



One of the mantras I preach when it comes to "weakling" TC's is:

convection =overrated
vorticity = underrated

The Camguey radar still shows a very intact low to mid level circulation with Ernie even though the surface circulation has been pretty much wiped out. IF Ernie can get his lumbering buttocksl offshore the north coast and push a little away from land, I have pretty good confidence that you will see a halfway decent comeback.




I have to say I wouldn't be surprised if exactly that happens. I'm not calling this storm done until the NHC calls it done and quits issuing warnings.

That's the kind of stuff that has people going to bed thinking there's nothing to worry about and waking up to a Cat 2 or 3. Not saying that will happen here, but it cannot be ruled out at this time.

I think everyone who's calling this storm "done" needs to just sit back and wait and see. I'm not saying it's NOT done -- I'm just saying it's not DONE. *LOL*

And according to the NHC, it's not DONE.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #72206 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:53 PM

Ok...here's a WV Loop which looks to me like Ernie is offshore already....if the Tropical Forecast points are to be believed:

WV Loop

It also looks like there is more t-storms firing around what I *think* is Ernesto.

They must be really tweaking that 11pm forecast...it's usually out by now.

Also..just noticed something else while checking my post: look at how that area to the east of the peninsula looks further south and is flattening out east-west...watch the outflow of the clouds. Interesting.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72207 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM

11pm track. NO change

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The Bear
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72208 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM

I don't know the track, but I know it's still a TS according to the 11pm, besically everything stayed the same, pressure, winds, direction, speed, etc.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72209 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM

not downgraded, track moved slightly west and more north on the east coast for exit
said it is 20 miles from being offsore cuba

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72210 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:55 PM

11pm advisory according to Don Noe on Channel 10 in Miami says more warnings up west coast of FL, track is slightly more westerly, more center of peninsula.

Not up and into the west coast

Just a slight tick west of before


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: NewWatcher]
      #72211 - Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM

The only thing that looks diff is the SC landfall is expected to be a TS not Hurricane.

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