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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: SirCane]
      #72236 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:38 PM

Not only you SirCane, I bet all the mets and Experts didn't get a grasp of what Ernesto was gonna do from the beginning of its birth. Nobody knows for sure what the heck Ernesto wants to do. ,"Should I die? Should I move a bit to the right? Should I move a bit to the left?" It's been that kind of story from this storm...

--------------------

My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4

Michael.



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #72238 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:50 PM

Nah many of us knew it wasnt a TX or NO system...the pattern was Never there.....I made a guess that maybe in 5-7 days it will make landfall in a big swath from Sarasota-Pandhandle,,just for that area had the potential...then my 3 day forecast from yesterday went from Florida bay-Ft Myers....and Im sticking with it....but hey even if it goes more N to Sarasota..I wont say..I had it from 6 days back....its was a lucky guess by me...
Anything over 3 days out is just luck....and the area to guess is what the pattern looks...but we defidently cant say within 100 miles...more like 500....LOL.


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72239 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:56 PM

It looks like on the IR loop (Floater 2, link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html ) that the core is off the coast of Cuba - it looks like it reformed NW in a "jump".

Its definitely not well-formed at this time, but it sure looks to be over water. There's a small blob of convection around a definite center; the earlier convection around it has detached and just become random T-storms...

But - with it now over water, and still having what appears to be a closed rotary circulation, you can't write it off. It does appear to be pulling some of the storms back in towards it and attempting to wrap them around on the NE quadrant - whether its actually trying to reorganize or in its dying gasps is hard to say.....

Definitely not impressive, but with the center being over water - and it sure looks like it is - we will now find out whether it can get its act together or whether its toast.

Motion appears to be right along the coastline, not counting the jog - if that's the case it won't get any "breathing room" until it either turns a bit or runs about another 100 miles north - right around daylight.
.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72240 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:00 AM

If I'm looking at the WV loop correctly, it looks to me like Ernesto is already OFF the coast of Cuba or it is reforming again:

WV Loop

If it's not, then I'm not looking at the right area...but if it is, it's beginning to look a *wee* bit better. I may just plain crazy by this point, though.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72241 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:22 AM

I agree Colleen the center is moving faster and to the NW while at the same time it's trying to reform it's self.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72242 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:26 AM

here's 3hr radar form Cuba ... note its only images taken every hour.... kinda have to plot the image on the screen to get a heading.

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72243 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:34 AM

Looking at the radar the center is still just on the northern coast skimming the barrier islands. motion still wnw. At least that is what it looks like to my untrained eye.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72244 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:35 AM

Keep in mind, with the water vapor images/loops, you are much more likely to see evidence of the middle to upper level circulations of Ernesto, and not the lower level to surface. In fact, one can argue that the surface circulation really isn't there anymore, and what we have is a "40mph" "tropical storm" that has been entirely disrupted at the surface, to the point of no longer being closed at the surface.

If you really want to give yourself the best chance of discerning the lower level to surface circulations when the sun goes down, I highly recommend the rgb and shortwave, especially over the water vapor.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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mj- maxx
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #72245 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:36 AM

This radar I've been using updates every 5 min. Same site but I guess a different update setting. I don't know spanish so I could not tell ya. Anyway here's the link

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../cmwMAXw01a.gif


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: mj- maxx]
      #72246 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM

Yeah, that loop really makes it look as if the lower level circ is most likely just barely offshore now, and for the past while - at least for the duration of the loop to current. However, part of this emergence appears to be a function of an indentation of the northern coastline, a feature that will be transitory all the way up the coast, should Ernesto follow essentially this WNW path.

Dvoraks are running again, so the agencies certainly feel it is well-enough off the coast to begin assessing things. SSD is right back up to a CI of 3.0. Amazing, and probably more than a little bit generous.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72247 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM

that's a funny title for the article, because the story of monday afternoon and evening is how Ernesto hasn't exited cuba. it got most of the way across on a quick-over trajectory and then turned wnw and has been running down the north coast a little inland. should respond to the falling heights to the north before long and turn... still think it won't venture much out into the gulf, but that's definitely in play. the most likely scenario is that Ernesto will continue to find ways to remain weak and disorganized.. the official has it taking a shorter cut up to the monroe/dade line at the bottom end of the glades and riding an arc up to the daytona area. basically on shore from late evening tuesday to wednesday evening. hard to picture it strengthening a whole heck of a lot in georgia coastal waters, so could end up in the carolinas still a tropical storm. that's a-ok with me. a reformation overnight a bit to the north could still put less time over florida back into the picture and make it more of a carolinas threat, but like the official says.. the longer it has stayed over cuba the more it has dulled its chances to become stronger.
some folks (namely scott) have had it on the west coast for the last 3 days or so. it could still slide around the bottom end of the state if the ridging holds up a little more... or if it just can't bear to leave cuba... that track could result in it sauntering through the lower keys and over florida bay, but affords it roughly the same intensification potential as the other scenarios. more time over cuba wouldn't help.
either way, like some of the hurricane naysayers were astutely guessing earlier... the hurricane potential is low and this is probably just a 'normal thunderstorm', at least if you consider a normal thunderstorm to have hours of gusting winds and several inches of rain. but not the kind that tears your roof off and puts the ocean over the seawall. still a threat of a hurricane further north in the carolinas if it stays offshore more, but the further west it goes the less likely that becomes. Ernesto is a landlubber, and that doesn't make for very scary tropical systems.
two other notes of interest. the wave/low out in the subsident/mild SST region in the east atlantic near 18/41 is gaining spotty convection. if this continues as it gets further west it could try something.
the wave trailing it has much more model support. granted that doesn't mean it'll do anything, but along the ITCZ and with a vestigial circulation it has access to some stuff generating storms need, moreso than the wave in front of it... that's back near 10/25. there'll probably be another storm active before the week is out, one way or another. going into early september the steering currents are shown by the GFS to keep these features on predominantly westerly courses.. with the troughing in the eastern u.s. there is more ridging in the western atlantic, keeping them coming for longer. anything that manages to develop could be a menace by mid or late september.
HF 0444z29august


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ZackWeather
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: mj- maxx]
      #72248 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:47 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ZackWeather]
      #72249 - Tue Aug 29 2006 12:52 AM

To me it's kind of hard to tell what it is doing because first no satellites, second no visible, third the radar lags so much you cant really get a feel. But on radar there appears to still be a circulation. So not sure I can agree or disagree with you at this point, cause I cant really see it..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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ernestos
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #72252 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:10 AM

New GFS out has it around naples so no BIG shift like many think just a little more west.In fact its about 30 miles different then 18Z run

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72253 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:12 AM

Recon now on their way out to Ernesto and they'll have their info in just in time for the 2am update.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ernestos]
      #72254 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:14 AM

But just as yesterday, you have to look at the trend and the trend has been west each run. Just like the trend each run yesterday was to the east. I still dont think this has played out yet

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ernestos
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dolfinatic]
      #72255 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:17 AM

Other 0z runs in and ukmet and GFS have not went west but even east more with the ukmet.So the trend looks to have stoped

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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ernestos]
      #72257 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM

I am sure NASA would be most happy if Ernesto just stayed over Cuba and then died. The shuttle will need to be moved before this storm has any chance of hitting mid florida with 40mph winds or higher.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: ernestos]
      #72258 - Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM

Well this storm is still heading WNW as far I can see on the radar. So no matter what the models say, it still appears to be going the direction it wants. Albeit distructing somewhat at the same time.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72262 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM

I am very impressed with this storm's resilency having had so much land interaction and shear in the past two days. That would have killed most systems already. I'm going to wait until the stuff comes in at 2am before bedding down, but again the convection looks removed from very close to the LLC like it did last night-only worse tonight. I really have a feeling that this could be downgraded a step further soon to a TD if it doesn't clear the coast very soon-wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the wind numbers reduced. This is a very ragged looking cluster of thunderstorms at this point and very little more. It's been very damaged, but let's see what happens if it ever decides to move off the long axis. This has killed other storms there before, trying to run that axis, but then again others have come back from that. I am amazed that it has hung in this long. Small systems can be very robust, but I remain skeptical for now.JMO and not necessarily right.

I thought last night it had a good chance if it had spun back up leaving Haiti, but now I'm just not that confident in it's recovery unless it substantially leaves that coastline very soon. The only redeeming feature would be the NE quad over the open water, as it currently is and the LLC well departed. If it moves off soon, it might still have chance at survival.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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