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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 128
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72263 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM

Still a ts. No downgrade. I wonder if recon has gotten out there? Still appears to be on land not over water yet.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dolfinatic]
      #72264 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:09 AM

Recon is about half-way there as of my reply. Maybe a little closer, now.

The approx. coc would appear to be part inland, part over that nook. It can't really be considered "exited" until better than 50% of it is back over water - like how we look at "landfalls."

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dolfinatic]
      #72265 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:11 AM

Looks like it beginning to make its move more northerly. Maybe just me seeing things at this late hour, but last few frames of the radar appear to have a more northward component.

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: cieldumort]
      #72266 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:13 AM

Looks like the COC is hugging the northern coastline as he moves WNW. Some pretty heavy feeder bands appear to be developing.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../cmwMAXw01a.gif

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #72267 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:22 AM

When do we get satellite back ? Does anyone know ?

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72268 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:26 AM

Never mind, SATS are back up ..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72269 - Tue Aug 29 2006 02:30 AM

Ernesto is still moving wnw and will continue into the late morning hours...then he should start heading more NW towards the southern keys during the afternoon hours.... Recon still wont be able to get in..but they can try to find some winds N and E of the center.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72271 - Tue Aug 29 2006 03:22 AM

some data coming in....seen several ship reports of 35kt....1 of 41kt.....ships model posts this as 45mph now......but its not official.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72272 - Tue Aug 29 2006 03:35 AM

quick word before i fall over and snooze.
long range radar from miami-dade (KAYX or something) makes it look like Ernesto is getting offshore in that little string of islands on the north central coast of cuba, and the center may be near that convective burst. probably start to intensify some later this morning, but it shouldn't have the requisite time to do a whole lot.
interesting that the GFDL keeps the central pressure fairly down while over florida and intensifies the storm as it moves up to south carolina some. could be a little bit of baroclinic influence it's seeing, maybe... some of the other globals that take it further northeast have similar deepening up the coast.
i guess a hurricane isn't out of the question, but it's not looking that way down in south florida at the moment.
the wave near 42w is finally developing some sporadic convection. a continued increase could also increase the chances it will make a move. there's a TUTT segment out to it's north that isn't going to give it an easy time if it does, more than likely.
the trailer wave is further south. not going to develop quickly, if at all... very ITCZ associated at this time. GFS still likes it fairly well, though, and it is already over water, not like the non-developers earlier this season that lost all support just prior to going off africa.
HF 0735z29august


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72273 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 AM

I'm giving that wave near 33W 10N a fairly decent chance for further development.

The sucker just now coming off the tip of Africa looking ok, although convection may be a little wanting.

Recon has been finding quite a lot of flight-level winds >38mph within Ernesto's northernmost regions - looks like a pretty sure bet he will remain TS at 5AM, despite a continued ragged appearance. I do think that the recent Dvorak CIs have been far too generous, however.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72276 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 AM

Center is now offshore. Pressure down to 1005MB. Max. flight-level wind found so far was about 57MPH.

He's going to pull it off, folks. What "it" is, is just yet to be determined, but "it's" not going to be rapid dissipation, that much is all but certain.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: cieldumort]
      #72278 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:59 AM

He looks like he is really exploding with convection as of 05:59 ET.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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meto23
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #72279 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:24 AM

yes....gettting much better organized. feeder bands are developing from south east , to nw also.could be near 55-60 this morning.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #72280 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:27 AM

Yet another storm that drives us nuts.The way it looks now we can expect near Cat 1 conditions here in se fl.If it slows down maybe more.This storm has already fooled me.Need to keep a very close eye on him through out the day.Everyone be safe!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72281 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 AM

i hate to get us away from Ernesto but looks like we are getting into that 2004 pattern again i see another huge wave in central atl and another one off africa. i have a feeling if this one doesnt get us those will. sorry off topic im just having 2004 flasbacks

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: nl]
      #72282 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:49 AM

I was just watching WPLG, the radar showed significant amounts of lightning. So Ernesto is in the very least steadily strengthening. Dr. Knabb of the NHC also expects a new recon report within the hour.

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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #72283 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM Attachment (449 downloads)

Nice 6:15 Florida/Bahamas still shot attached

Edited by Ginger (Tue Aug 29 2006 07:17 AM)


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BrooklynMommy
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #72284 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM

This might be a silly question, but could someone tell me if going over Lake Okeechobee will have any affect on Ernesto?

Thanks


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #72286 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM

Big blob of convention firing up but not wrapping around the center so I don't expect much strengthing especially given its forward speed of 14 mph at last report. Strong TS or very weak Cat 1 'Cane with landfall in the middle Keys, followed by a second landfall somewhere between Marco Island and the Flamingo / Everglades National Park area of extreme S FL. Conditions in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale should be limited to gusty E/SE winds between 45 and 65mph (higher gusts in small cells possible) with your standard run-of-the-mill tropical downpours of heavy rain. I just can't see this thing getting wrapped up enough in the 12-14 hours it has left before coming ashore. Thus I'm not putting any panels.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 184
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida [Re: BrooklynMommy]
      #72287 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM

Lake Okeechobee has been known to allow hurricanes to regenerate in the past. Between the Everglades and Okeechobee what we'll likely see is a storm that weakens more slowly than storms normally do inland.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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