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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: track [Re: cieldumort]
      #72535 - Tue Aug 29 2006 03:59 PM

Quote:

However, the most important thing here is not to get transfixed on his center. Unless he pulls a really unexpected fast one (which is always a possibility, of course, but not as likely) the worst weather threat from Ernesto will most likely be in the form of potentially flooding rains, and this threat covers a far greater area than the relatively smaller swath(s) of severe winds.




And the potential for tornadoes on the right front quadrant especially.

The bottom line is, if you're south of Tampa Bay, no matter WHERE you are, it's going to be a nasty couple of days. If you're on the east coast, up through GA and the Carolinas, you've still got time to prepare and you should prepare.

It's already starting to deteriorate here in Charlotte County. We haven't had any rain yet, but the breeze is picking up and it's clouding up. Really in the last hour I've noticed it starting to go downhill. Not nasty yet, but it's a matter of time.

The only thing the center is good for is seeing where you are in relation to it to have a better idea of what kinds of winds you'll be dealing with and whether you're on the left or right of it. And storm surge (which everyone seems to be in agreement with that this storm will not be a hurge surge maker, although coastal and waterfront residents still MUST take all necessary precautions.)

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: track [Re: g-50cab]
      #72537 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM

There is still a lack of convection in the SE half of the system and that situation doesn't seem to be changing much right now. No signs of any rapid intensification.

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Unregistered User]
      #72538 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM

I dont think anyone is wishcasting. For the most part everyone has had at least a somewhat plausible solution to back up their opinion. Now for mine. LOL. I think if ernie does not begin to turn northward by 80.5 long. then it will make it to the west coast and ride up it. How far who knows but i think that is the area that decides whether it goes in everglades or not. Still looks to me that the high is hanging in there to its north and north east. yes it is retreating but at a snails pace.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: accuwx track [Re: JMII]
      #72540 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:03 PM

Quote:

The radar out of Key West show its trying to wrap up however Ernesto is going to be cut off from his fuel supply by land mass of FL so that will limit his developement at this late stage.





He also will not have deep water, which he would realistically need for a super-fast fire-up. However, the "land" he'll be hitting first most likely is the Everglades, which is mostly water. So it won't be like if it hits a brick wall with a populated or "dry" area. He'll most likely have just enough fuel to stay a TS through the state. Or not. *LOL*

That's not to say he can't fire up, it's to say it's unlikely, and the best bet is to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: dolfinatic]
      #72541 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:05 PM



Did I read correctly that at 2:15 recon mission, the maximum sustained surface winds were a whopping 29 m.p.h.? I saw the flight level winds at 45 kts, but the surface winds were esitmated to be just 25 kts. Is that right?

Also, anyone know when the next one is scheduled to report?


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g-50cab
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete
Re: track [Re: Unregistered User]
      #72542 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM

I think you are right

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BYX&loop=yes

It looks like the eye is trying to close from the last few frames I have seen. The eye was less defined, but from the key west radar looked much more organized. What I am concerned with is the westerly track of the eye. Bobble or change?


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bhnole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: track [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72543 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM

Actually, Lois's scenario is within the NHC cone of of probability track. I wish NHC would have done away with the black line, when they were voting on it. People get way too fixated on it and it gives the news stations way too much fodder to panic everyone when it comes through their broadcast area.

If you are in or near the cone, stay ready and aware but calm. This is a part of living during Hurricane season in Florida and other Hurricane susceptible areas. Charley, Katrina and countless others have shown that small last minute changes in direction can spare one city and put another into the worst of it.

Ernesto does not look like a huge threat outside of rain and some storm surge. It's structure is elongating on the Wator vapor. This maybe forshadowing the predicted NNW to N turn.


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: track [Re: bhnole]
      #72545 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM

The black line is almost irrelevant in a TS such as Ernesto.

On numerous occasions you see feeder band with far more weather than the so called center of the storm. Torerential rains, tornadoes are all very likely miles and miles from the black line. In fact on many weak TS the black line is safer than being on a feeder band where you can get pounded on far longer than you could from being at the so-called center.

Now in storms with devestating winds, this is not he case, but with TS it is the case more often than not.


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leww
Unregistered




Re: track *DELETED* [Re: bhnole]
      #72546 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM

Post deleted by John C

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: track [Re: leww]
      #72548 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 PM

Per Orlando Sentinel :

In a stunning turnaround, shuttle Atlantis is being rolled back to the launch pad after getting halfway to the Kennedy Space Center's Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA managers ordered the turnaround after the latest weather forecast showed significant weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto. More details will be posted here when available.

3:45 p.m. update: NASA apparently will attempt a pair of launch attempts on Sept. 6-7.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Conehead
Unregistered




Re: track [Re: leww]
      #72550 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:15 PM

Its peak winds were expected to be less than 79 mph, the amount at which it is mandatory to return the space shuttle indoors

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furkidsmom
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Satellite Beach, FL
Re: track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #72552 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:21 PM

Shuttle Update

Looks like they think the wind won't be a problem for the Shuttle. They want to Launch in September since there are only 3 days left in the year that they could launch.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: lawgator]
      #72554 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:23 PM

Here are some weather stations worth keeping an eye on:

Marathon: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMARAT3

Key Largo: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLKEYLA2

You can watch the pressure drop and the winds speeds pick up... but so far is not very impressive.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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John C
Unregistered




In General [Re: Conehead]
      #72555 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:24 PM

One more time
Read rules before posting.

Thank You


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g-50cab
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: JMII]
      #72556 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:31 PM

I show the storm to be over Sal Bank north of cuba, very shallow. In the next hour it will go into the florida straights where the water is between 100-400 feet.

From there you have the everglades to the north, florida bay, both shallow. The further west it goes before turning, the more it has the opportunity to stregthen, thats all. I have just learned over the years from watching Charley, then Wilma, given the right set of circumstances, these storms can rapidly intensify. I hope NHC is correct. I hope it heads further north than what it currently looks like on radar. My instincts tell me that NHC will adjust the forcast west at their five o'clock update, They want to make sure south florida is out of the woods before changing. That gives us on the west coast more time to react. I hope I am wrong, I have enough to do right now.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Tornado Watch [Re: g-50cab]
      #72559 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 PM

A tornado watch is now in effect for the following counties:
BROWARD COLLIER GLADES
HENDRY MARTIN MIAMI-DADE
MONROE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH
ST. LUCIE

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tornado Watch [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #72560 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:48 PM

5:00 PM

Looks like either the same track or slightly east

24.3 N 80.2W

Max winds 45 mph gusts to 55 mph

Movement NW 12 mph

Pressure 1005 mb


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Gerry
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: g-50cab]
      #72561 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:49 PM

We're still waiting for the 'storm' down here in miami....All we've had is some light rain, light wind. People are still driving around and even going to the beach. Most houses in South Miami don't have their shutters up. 5pm advisory: "the storm is not strengthening".

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: g-50cab]
      #72562 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:50 PM

Looking at the Key West long-range Radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The core appears to be moving just north of due west. This may be a bobble, as they only show an hour or so's worth of animation, but IF IT IS NOT then this thing is going to go over with the north edge of the core at Marathon and the south edge at Key West and into the Bay, and a turn to the NW THERE will put it up into Naples or even further northward.

If it doesn't start moving to the NW soon, its going to miss the 'Glades entirely - progged track or not!

As things stand over the last hour that movement is definitely NOT northwest!

As for Miami, you may not have storms now, but you're fixing to get some in about an hour.....

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Gerry]
      #72565 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM

I think the 5pm discussion puts everyone at ease. the storm will not strengthen much more if any and 45mph is really a weak tropical storm...the track is pretty good, the influence of the front to the north is now starting to show...we saw a change in the flow in the panhandle here late last night and it is now effecting Ernesto...be alert for the bans of rain , though you all know that....hopefully this will not be a test for a bigger one late in the season...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Tue Aug 29 2006 04:54 PM)


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