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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Eye Question [Re: Todd]
      #73051 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:28 PM

Last 2 frames of the floater 2 sat show a distinct eye forming

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73052 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:33 PM

Its pretty clearly visible on every recent sat image I've seen

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Eye Question [Re: WeatherNut]
      #73054 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:51 PM

Well, NHC has been good with track mostly but I would think he would go more east.

Ernesto has been left of track always and watching him on radar doesn't always give you the best idea on what is going on inside the storm.

Learned that in Miami... interesting storm. Just hard to track compared to many.. watching to see what he does.

Think it's interesting we are going into September and dealing with this sort of track.. makes you wonder what will come later in the month.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Eye Question [Re: LoisCane]
      #73058 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:16 PM

Dr. Lyons on TWC just said it would go onshore to the east of the Cape Fear River. We have had over 6.5 inches of rain here today, may get up to a foot. Should have the worst of it from 10:00 to 12:00.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Eye Question [Re: LoisCane]
      #73059 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:17 PM

I just added an icon to show Mark Sudduth's ( http://www.hurricanetrack.com ) current position (well his HIRT vehicle anyway... update every few minutes or so) on the storm plot google map.

Still watching Ernesto.


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Eye Question [Re: MikeC]
      #73064 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:31 PM

Do you know if they are in Wilmington, or somewhere else? There comments say the were on Oak Island and then downtown Wilmington.

Sorry, just answered my own question. they are in Kure Beach, I just recognized the Big Daddy's sign in a picture. Thanks anyway.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur

Edited by CarolinaGurl (Thu Aug 31 2006 09:34 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Eye Question [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73066 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:36 PM

Quote:

Do you know if they are in Wilmington, or somewhere else? There comments say the were on Oak Island and then downtown Wilmington.

Sorry, just answered my own question. they are in Kure Beach, I just recognized the Big Daddy's sign in a picture. Thanks anyway.




Yeah it's Kure Beach, the map autoupdates from their GPS position every few minutes (while its working anyway). It's the big yellow pin on the google map plot.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
next up... [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73067 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:39 PM

ernesto will make landfall in the next hour or two at oak island, nc. coming close enough that wilmington should get a pretty good windstorm out of this tonight. they'll probably get a couple hours of sustained tropical storm force winds, maybe a gust to hurricane force. center should be on the west side of town at the next advisory. any upgrade to hurricane that's ever made will be posthumous, as the center should be onshore at the next advisory cycle. it looks like it just baaaarely didn't make it. it is drenching eastern north carolina and flooding there and further north in the mid atlantic will likely be the greater part of this storm's legacy.
we're probably going to have two more tropical cyclones in the eastern atlantic before the weekend is out. the small low at around 16/51 has flared deep convection tonight and this might get the ball rolling for it. it is a small feature and has the potential to spin up quickly. some shear to the west should move it wnw and just north of the islands if it develops. the other feature is a low developing near 12/36 along a tropical wave. it is finally getting some definition from the monsoon trough down there. i'd give it a somewhat better chance of slow development, as it is broad but slowly organizing, and in a favorable environment. the only potential hurdle is another wave overtaking it and disrupting its circulation. this one has had good model support.
september should provide quick replacements for Ernesto once it goes inland and washes out.
HF 0139z01september


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73071 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:06 PM

For those that don't have access to marc's live streaming video (hurricanelivenet ), he's showing shingles coming off roofs and power lines going down along the path he's in . winds of around 65mph he's recording now (gusts, steady just over 40mph). (See the Google map plot and look for the yellow pin icon.

-- 10:34

Marc's getting steady winds of 55mph wind gusts to 70mph



Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 31 2006 10:36 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: next up... [Re: MikeC]
      #73073 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:43 PM

Quote:

For those that don't have access to marc's live streaming video (hurricanelivenet ), he's showing shingles coming off roofs and power lines going down along the path he's in . winds of around 65mph he's recording now (gusts, steady just over 40mph). (See the Google map plot and look for the yellow pin icon.

-- 10:34

Marc's getting steady winds of 55mph wind gusts to 70mph






My husband actually works for the town they are in. I called and told him about the power lines and they were going to go check it out. The truck is sitting at the Fort Fisher military museum overlook of the ocean.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: next up... [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73075 - Thu Aug 31 2006 11:42 PM

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF Ernesto MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF Ernesto MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH.

$$

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 31 2006 11:44 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: next up... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73077 - Fri Sep 01 2006 12:11 AM

anybody know the exact location of long beach? SFC obs out of the brunswick county airport (just west of southport) made it look like the center tracked in just to the east (winds dropped to almost nothing near the time of landfall). all i can figure is that the landfall point was just east of caswell beach at the eastern end of oak island... only smith island to the east of that... cape fear is the pointed southeastern tip of smitht island.
anyhow, the brunswick county airport also reported a min. pressure at 988 mb. doesn't look like it hit the center of the eye. i guess whenever Ernesto is written up (late in the fall, probably) they'll say whether it was that or a mb or two lower.
HF 0412z01september

oh, ok... it's the western tip of oak island. i either misread the obs or the winds were variable in the eye. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 01 2006 12:17 AM)


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73080 - Fri Sep 01 2006 12:45 AM

Here's a nice look from the Moorehead City, NC radar at 12:30 EDT

http://www.angelfire.com/planet/sieklone06/ernestoradar3.hm

Ernie sure looks impressive.

Edited by LaVidaCyclone (Fri Sep 01 2006 01:05 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: next up... [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #73081 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:00 AM

hmmm... that's interesting. the station at wilmington international is reporting a pressure of 986 mb. maybe the landfall induced some tightening of the vortex. winds are out of the south at 21 mph, so it is east of the center. min pressure might be even a tad lower.
HF 0501z01september


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73083 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:10 AM

Maybe an intensity upgrade is in order? It'll be interesting once daylight breaks and they're able to see what damage was caused. Then they'll have an even better idea of "what" actually made landfall.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73085 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:35 AM

yeah saw that ILM reported and pressure that low.. my grandmother is directly between the ILM airport and Brunswick County airport... (boiling spring)....based on what she was telling me on the phone... i think landfall was about right... she said winds went form blowing pretty strong to very light in about 2-5 mins i was on the phone with her... about the time i could tell on radar the northern center band was coming across... said power went on and off all night.... She has part of a wx station hooked up to her at the house and she did see the pressure fall... Thinks she saw... about 29.31-33?... I would say that landfall occured at the mouth of cape fear..between caswell beach and Smith island (aka Bald Head Island) (Oak Island is the whole island if i recall... they have long beach, caswell beach and youpon beach)... Hey being from there...note the sim? Smith island... my last name... Yep... My great-greatgrandfather ran the lighthouse that still sits over there on the island...

Google Map Of My Hometown!

Closet Offical Wx Obs to Landfall
Althougt i know there are two personal wx obs stations on Oak Island... will post link when i can find them in my archives

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 01 2006 01:38 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73086 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:46 AM

I would be satisfied with an upgrade of Ernesto to 75 mph hurricane at landfall. It does appear that Ernesto did improve structure within the last hour or so before landfall, and right at landfall. This would also make two times that Ernie pulled an 11th - as in south Florida, where some, who had heard that he was a glorified afternoon shower, were surprised as his pressure dropped at landfall, giving some spots some pretty gusty winds.

This time-sensitive JSL enhanced loop of "Ernesto" clearly shows a very organized blow-up of deep convection in the last couple of frames, with a dead-on attempt to really concentrate about the eye/eyewall. - For help seeing this, click on the "Trop Pts" (tropical forecast points) and alternate overlay with the "Radar" overlay.

Also, a location not really right in the eye recorded a minimum pressure of 986mb, or 1mb below the barometric pressure level often associated with a marginal cat 1 hurricane. And especially given that this reading was quite likely not in the exact center at time of lowest barometric pressure, it is arguably equally likely that Ernesto's actual min. surface pressure was even less than this.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: next up... [Re: cieldumort]
      #73087 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:57 AM

here's a link to a weather obs in southport on the cape fear river.. the water front... from what i can tell.. i would put this the closet to landfall right now... scroll down to bottom of page trying to verify the location....looks like this is from the river pliot office... pressure guage must of been down!! There is a Coast Guard Office on Caswell Beach
http://cfpilot.com/weather/screenID001.jpg

a personal obs station every 5-10 mins
more live stations... scroll down... Highest gust i could find... 51mph.. most all stations show pressure 986mb as lowest
http://home.ec.rr.com/currentweather/usa.htm
However i did find a 985mb.. at st. james... on the intercoastal waterway just west of brunswick county airport... they will have to make sure the guage is correct Mariners Way, St. James, NC

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 01 2006 02:11 AM)


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