Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially over. June 1st-Nov 30th, 2014 for the next.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 541 (Sandy) , in Florida: 3104 (8 y 6 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: rally [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72976 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:45 PM

just talked to family in brunswick county... They said its getting windy and the tornado warning they had earlier... they hear on the scanners it may have hit a few mobile homes near the coast... Got family in shallote? and leland and boiling springs... I am from southport... so i know alot about the area.... Landfall i think inline with Hank... between North Myrtle Beach and Southport... which doesn't happen all the time...Most of the time its from Southport to the east (the Mouth of Cape Fear River). I do see the window opening up for a possible Hurricane at landfall... Thats pushing it, but it could happen.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 31 2006 12:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72978 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:51 PM

That recon info was in the 11:00 AM advisory, but I can't find it anywhere else. Last posted recon was from earlier this morning.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72979 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:51 PM

Todd, I am getting my recon data from a text feed of NWS data. The NHC site hasn't been updating, possibly because the current recon data has been coming from a NOAA plane, rather than an AF plane, so the header info is different (coming from WBC rather than NHC). There is probably a way to find that data on the web somewhere, but I tried for a couple minutes and didn't have any luck. Here is the latest vortex message as of an hour ago:

URNT12 KWBC 311544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1525Z
B. 31 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1386 M
D. 50 KT
E. 260 DEG 15 NM
F. 332 DEG 38 KT
G. 280 DEG 22 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 17 C/2145 M
J. 18 C/2144 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 12 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 54 KT S QUAD 1400Z
STRONG CONVECTION S-NW OF CENTER


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ENB3
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: 32.80N 79.87W
Re: rally [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #72980 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:07 PM

Winds increasing and pressure dropping off Hilton Head
http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?graph_type=all&interval=1_day
and CHS
http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?buoy=buoy4
These buoys transmit every 2 hours. Next transmission will be at 1PM but it takes about 30 minutes for data to be QC'd and posted on website. Coastal stations (FRP1, CAP1, SUN1) transmit hourly. Unfortunately, satellite link to mid-shelf buoy off CHS (CAP3) went down on 8/23
NOAA NDBC Edisto buoy data here
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Monitor northern line for landfall, e.g., http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?buoy=WLS3

First time posting, so hope links work. Been lurking for a couple of years. Thanks to mods and all posters. Very impressive.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72981 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:11 PM

Here is a link to the latest NOAA vortex message:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt12.kwbc..txt

Here is a link to high-resolution data from the NOAA plane:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT40.shtml?

That data updates every 10 minutes or so when they are doing a mission with the SFMR instrument onboard. The format of that data is explained in the link below, but the most important field is the second-to-last field, which indicates the surface wind measurement from the SFMR:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85603 (scroll down slightly for the NOAA format)

The SFMR recorded a surface wind of 58 knots about 25 minutes ago, a little bit after the latest recon message was sent.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72982 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:15 PM

Here is a snippet from the high res data that recently recorded 58 knots at the surface, in an area of very strong precip:

URNT40 KWBC 311650
NOAA2 2205A Ernesto
164100 3119 07934 7095 -0010 294033 +153 +142 283058 057 020
164200 3117 07936 6944 -0014 284056 +160 +116 277060 058 044
164300 3114 07939 6789 +0025 294046 +162 +127 297052 047 009

Latest recon:

URNT12 KWBC 311654
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1635Z
B. 31 DEG 33 MIN N
79 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1372 M
D. 40 KT
E. 045 DEG 20 NM
F. 125 DEG 52 KT
G. 040 DEG 31 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 16 C/2149 M
J. 19 C/2146 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 20 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 54 KT S QUAD 1400Z
STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF CENTER


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
2 pm intermediate [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72984 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:46 PM

hmmm... down 1 mb, winds rated at 70 mph. surprised they didn't tap the hurricane watches up to warnings. tbird12, that was some timely info you provided. there is a weak eye structure on radar, which hasn't improved a whole lot. if that starts becoming better defined this afternoon, the folks in horry county sc and brunswick county nc will be having an extended (but not necessarily fun) labor day weekend.
HF 1747z31august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72985 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:50 PM

Thanks... was FTP it down from FSU ( couldn't find info searching NOAA site but I see you did). In any case, if you take the data and plug it into the handy decorder at

http://atl.weatherxp.com/recon.htm

You'll come up with a fairly decent decode ... IE

Storm Ernesto: Observed By NOAA #2
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 54KT (62.1mph) In S Quadrant At 1400Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thu Aug 31 12:35:00 2006
Position of the center: 31 33' N 79 16' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1372m (Normal: 1457)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40KT (46MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 20nm (23miles) From Center At Bearing 045
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 52KT (59.8mph) From 125
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 31nm (35.65miles) From Center At Bearing 040
Minimum pressure: 993mb (29.32in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being POORLY DEFINED
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm

Since the 11Z it's moved 1.23 N and .44 East


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72986 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:00 PM

This is from the 2 PM advisory.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. Ernesto COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

If that is the case, why did the NHC keep the max winds at 60 MPH in the advisory? Was this flight level winds?

A nice band of showers just moved through Charleston. Lot of rain and decent winds. Seems to be settling down again though.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72987 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:09 PM

Quote:

Thanks... was FTP it down from FSU ( couldn't find info searching NOAA site but I see you did). In any case, if you take the data and plug it into the handy decorder at




Fyi we have two decoders on this site
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php
and
http://flhurricane.com/recon/.

As for the 60 vs 70 mph windspeed. They issued a correction statement shortly after it to fix the intensity.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: zacros]
      #72988 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:14 PM

Zacros, I'm not sure about your question... the 2pm advisory intensity was 70 mph. They haven't updated the graphics though, if that is what you mean.

The NOAA plane recently found 66 knot flight-level winds in the SE quadrant, with surface winds of 53 knots.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72989 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:19 PM

This excerpt is from the end of the 2PM statement.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

Hence the confusion.

Just read the post a couple above this one. I see the light now. I was reading the statements on the TS Ernesto page on the sidebar. It did not have the corrected statement.

Edited by zacros (Thu Aug 31 2006 02:23 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72991 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:23 PM

The plane jusy measured 57 knots at the surface in the SW quadrant. Here is the latest recon:

URNT12 KWBC 311813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1756Z
B. 31 DEG 52 MIN N
79 DEG 9 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1379 M
D. 50 KT
E. 160 DEG 10 NM
F. 258 DEG 65 KT
G. 164 DEG 36 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 18 C/2155 M
J. 20 C/2152 M
K. 11 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 24 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 1736Z
STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF CENTER


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
PULMFEL
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: NC
DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72992 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:43 PM

looking at recent sat, it appears the storm is east of predicted. does anyone else think this?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: PULMFEL]
      #72993 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:48 PM

The center of Ernesto appears to be just slightly east of the forecast track at this time.

There is now an AF plane in Ernesto, so the NHC website recon data should start updating with that information.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72994 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:09 PM

I am very surprised that the Hurricane Warning flag was not rasied at 2:00 for some are of the Hurrcane Watch area. The 2:00 PM advisory was very conflicting in its information. Most news outlets are reporting 70MPH winds. If this is what is the truth, I seems possible, if not probable, that Ernesto will be at hurricane force on landfall. Not that four miles per hour is a major jump, you do have people who ignore Tropical Storm warnings.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 136
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Rasvar]
      #72996 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:40 PM

Quote:

I am very surprised that the Hurricane Warning flag was not rasied at 2:00 for some are of the Hurrcane Watch area. The 2:00 PM advisory was very conflicting in its information. Most news outlets are reporting 70MPH winds. If this is what is the truth, I seems possible, if not probable, that Ernesto will be at hurricane force on landfall. Not that four miles per hour is a major jump, you do have people who ignore Tropical Storm warnings.




At 70mph/993 there is definately room for Ernesto to reach H1 without much work at all. I can only surmise that they think that he's still too disorganized to really spin up. Still, surprising they're being conservative on this given the SST's he's over/very little amount of sheer.

--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Psyber]
      #72999 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:57 PM

Ernesto doesn't really look better on radar or satellite now compared to a couple of hours ago, so it is probably still a little below hurricane strength. Some of the drier sectors of the storm have filled in with more convection, but overall organization doesn't seem to have improved that much.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73001 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:12 PM

pressure is now down the 991mb and radar presentation is improving . T number is now 4

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: HCW]
      #73002 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:14 PM

I thought we might escape seeing Hurricane Ernesto, but I think they will upgrade it @ 5pm. Overall preformance is improving and as just mentioned the pressure is still falling.

--------------------


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 30 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 36906

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center