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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Watches Up for Carolinas. Tropical Storm Ernesto Strengthening
      #72903 - Wed Aug 30 2006 11:44 PM

2 PM Update
Ernesto now has 70MPH winds, just shy of hurricane strength, and is still in a good position to gain more strength.



11:30 AM Update
Hurricane watches are up from the south Santee river in South Carolina to Cape Lookout in North Carolina. Ernesto is forecast to be borderline Tropical/Storm hurricane when it makes landfall near Myrtle Beach With the strengthening trends like they are, it could be very possible.

8:30 AM Update
8 AM Advisory has windspeed at 55MPH, a strengthening system, no Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the Carolinas, yet, but they may occur if the strengthening trend continues.

Recon is indicating a system still strengthening.

7:30 AM Update
Recon reports Ernesto down to 996 mb, with winds roughly 60-65mph.

7AM Update

Ernesto's pressure is down to 998 millibars, and windspeed to 50 MPH, with a chance for a little more strengthening before making another landfall near the north and south Carolina borders.

1125 PM-Wednesday Update

The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Update bringing Tropical Depression Ernesto up to Tropical Storm status.

NOAA Buoy 41009 and NWS Melbourne Doppler radar are indicating winds at the surface and aloft in excess of 36mph.
NHC is estimating Ernesto's Maximum Sustained winds at 40 mph, East of the Center.



Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Report Ernesto related weather conditions /damage in your area here

Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by Ernesto? Ask here.

To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved/graveyarded. So use the above links please.

Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of Ernesto and a Level 3 radar recording of Ernesto.


Beyond Ernesto, there is a strong wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a chance to become a depression in the next few days.


Event Related Links


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.

Recon Report Map Plot

Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar


Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 31 2006 09:15 PM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: danielw]
      #72905 - Wed Aug 30 2006 11:51 PM

Daniel looks like you were right about the front shoving Ernesto to the right. This from NWS site:

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto LOCAL STATEMENT
AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310745-

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1139 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO RE-GAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THIS STATEMENT UPGRADES Ernesto BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND
UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF Ernesto...MOVING THE CENTER A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST BRINGING THE CENTER INTO GEORGETOWN SOUTH OF
MYRTLE BEACH THURSDAY EVENING. IT ALSO INCREASES THE COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS TO
3 TO 5 FEET. RAINFALL IS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TO FOUR
TO EIGHT INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72906 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:09 AM

That was just a quick look estimate from the loops that I listed.

I'm at 17 hours and have 7 hours to go so Your eyes are much better than mine.

Question is...how far out will the front push Ernesto. If it's far enought to clear Cape Hatteras that will be great. But looking at the last model run, and the forecast of Ernesto's remnants near Detriot. That's,...well... wishing.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: danielw]
      #72908 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:41 AM

guess recon will show up soon, let us know if there have been any pressure falls. i wouldn't guess so as radar organization looks about the same. on satellite the storm looks fairly organized. not like it could strengthen a whole heck of a lot, but not too bad to say the least. the NHC official track looks good. only caveat would be if deep convection started blooming and set this thing into a development slide. nothing like that as of yet.
based on the tendencies i'm seeing with the small low out near 16/48, i'd think the NHC may have to start changing the tone of their outlooks on it. it has been maintaining a small area of deep convection most of today, and more scattered stuff appears to be developing on its eastern flank. it is getting closer to the islands, and under a favorable upper air environment. might become more interesting tomorrow.
the wave near 33w also has a fairly well defined circulation near the ITCZ.
neither feature threatens imminent development, but both have persisted and may eventually result in a system. the eastpac has continued active; maybe the atlantic will try to keep pace with it. the basin doesn't look to be in the throes of an MJO active surge, but doesn't look that inhospitable either... not unlikely we'll have more action in the coming days.
HF 0442z31august


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Yikes
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: 31.95N 80.90W
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72912 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:59 AM

post deleted - question was answered in previous post

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:22 PM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72913 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:39 AM

when is recon supposed to be in there?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: WeatherNut]
      #72914 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:25 AM

078
SXXX50 KNHC 310722
AF303 2105A Ernesto HDOB 17 KNHC


recon is showing up now . 50 mph winds next update


down to 999mb

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by HCW (Thu Aug 31 2006 03:46 AM)


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: HCW]
      #72916 - Thu Aug 31 2006 05:42 AM

Buoy 41012 is due west of the center of Ernesto at 5AM. Pressure is right around 1000 mb and winds sustained out of the north at 17 kts (20 mph). Not very impressive since it is so close to the center. It is on the west side of the storm, though.

Some decent rain here in Charleston overnight, should be more on the way.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Ernies Eye [Re: zacros]
      #72917 - Thu Aug 31 2006 05:54 AM

000
URNT12 KNHC 310832
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/08:17:00Z
B. 29 deg 49 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 151 deg 033 kt
G. 44 deg 033 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A Ernesto OB 11
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SW QUAD 07:13:00 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL

Looks like ernie is getting his act together!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
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Re: Ernies Eye [Re: Rich B]
      #72918 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:07 AM

How is he getting his act together with a raggedy eyewall? and is Ernesto real close to the coast or what? WIll he eventually move away some and will this hinder his development or not matter at all?

Use the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum for these types of questions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:25 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Ernies Eye [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72919 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:23 AM

000
URNT12 KNHC 310926
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/09:18:00Z
B. 29 deg 56 min N
080 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1408 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 223 deg 050 kt
G. 124 deg 049 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW-NE
M. C25

N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A Ernesto OB 17
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SE QUAD 09:02:50 Z
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL,C8, FORMING IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF LARGER EYE

The inner core would seem to be trying to consolidate and organise. Although relatively close to land he will be moving further away for a bit before approaching the coast once more. He could become stronger, ad i think we'll see a strong TS at landfall: 65-70 mph.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Bit more NNE [Re: Rich B]
      #72920 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:34 AM

Radar shows Enrnesto now pushing a little more eastward. Lot of rain trying to wrap around from the south side of the storm. The coast could see a pretty good punch from this storm before all is said and done.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Bit more NNE [Re: zacros]
      #72921 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:38 AM

yeah, i noticed hints of more of an easterly / rightward shift. Recon also shows another slight pressure drop... from 998 down to 997mb.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Bit more NNE [Re: Rich B]
      #72922 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:41 AM

Local Buoys continue to show an increase in wind speed and decrease in pressure. Certainly an indication that the storm is getting stronger.

PS - if you look at this map, check the buoys with the blue squares or red triangles, the others do not show much information.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Bit more NNE [Re: Rich B]
      #72923 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:43 AM

So does that make me safe from landfall if I'm on the SC coast? If it pushes more eastward wouldn't it miss SC and be more of a landfall in NC maybe the outer banks.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:53 AM)


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Bit more NNE [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72924 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:48 AM

Depends on where on the coast you are at. I think the track may be slightly to the right of the official NHC forcast, but not by much. It also depends on whether or not the eastward jog holds. The storm may resume a more northerly track and still run right into the Georgetown/MB area. I would think that the storm would land fall right along the SC/NC border (which is really right in line with the NHC forcast).

Edited by zacros (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:53 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Bit more NNE [Re: zacros]
      #72926 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:24 AM

Pressure down again - 996mb. Flt winds to 61Kts!

000
URNT12 KNHC 311116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/11:02:10Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
079 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1398 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 233 deg 061 kt
G. 127 deg 023 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 16 C/ 1445 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2105A Ernesto OB 28
MAX FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 10:55:00 Z
;

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72927 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:25 AM

What is up with the area 23 N and 67 w ? Too my untrained eye it looks as though something is spinning, any chance of something popping up here?

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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: SebastianLou]
      #72929 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:00 AM

I am not sure, but my guess is that it is an ULL. The surface maps do not show a low in the area and there is certainly no mention in the Tropical Outlook. The 8 AM tropical discussion mentions it though.

A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE
WITH THE AXIS FROM 30N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N58W TO 23N68W. "


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
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Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: zacros]
      #72930 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:12 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72931 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:20 AM

Has anyone noticed the fact that after most weak storms cross florida they strenghten stronger then when they make landfall? I always thought this to be odd. I don't understand why being over land would make the cyclone more prepared for intensification.

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JOC
Unregistered




Re: Bit more NNE [Re: Rich B]
      #72932 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:22 AM

Given the latest reports that show the pressure drop of 2mb in 3hrs and wind up 5 mph in the same time, could it reach cat 1 status before landfall? Reason for commenting on this is because there seems to be a shift, however so slight, to the east and according to the GFDL model for the last few runs are now taking the storm to the north of Wilmington in the Topsail Beach area. My estimate is if comes in between Georgetown & Myrtle Beach, probably a strong TS but if it stays out say an extra 3-5 hrs to go north of Wilmington perhaps a low end cat1. The problem is they have yet to move any warnings n of Cape Lookout and if this thing decides to deepen faster than anticipated with a slight eastward componet, people in eastern NC might get more than they are anticipating. I have lived in E NC for 40+ years and have seen many storms do crazy things in a very short period of time, like Alex 2 yrs ago. People along the NC coast really need to pay close attention until its final landfall later tonight. Any thoughts?

JOC


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72933 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:25 AM

The 8 AM update shows another increase in wind speed. You can also see from the past several advisories that the storm has been moving slightly to the right of north for the past several updates. This easterly movement increase in the lastest update. Looks like Ernesto moved .3 degrees to the east and .4 to the north. Prior to that, the storm moved .6 north and .2 east. Therefore, the front to west of the storm seems to be pushing it ever so slightly to the east. However, it still appears that the NHC forcast is valid. Folks in Wilmington better be gearing up. As the storms are beginning to make their way around the center.

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
25N / 65W [Re: amonty]
      #72934 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:27 AM

Take a look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Is that and ULL brewing or a MLL?


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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: 25N / 65W *DELETED* [Re: Beach]
      #72935 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:37 AM

Post deleted by Reaper

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: zacros]
      #72939 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:04 AM

Radar loops are looking like Ernesto it trying to close off the open NW side of the center. If that happens I think it will really deepen quickly

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: 25N / 65W [Re: Reaper]
      #72940 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:05 AM

Sorry reaper, probably a better place for your post in "The Tropics Today" forum. Ernesto only stuff here.

I'm not suprised that ernie has gone more east than expected...he seemed hellbent on getting back to the ocean after a quick little stay over florida. I can only surmise that the extra hot water/ground in that part of florida much have kept him in pretty good shape for his reorganization now that he's out to sea. Even when he was completely over land, you could see him pulling in moisture from the GOM/atlantic so he really hasn't gone through the instant dryout of what he would have if he had going through LA MS or AL.

I'd like to cheer for more east movement but I know the more he stays out over the water, the stronger he's going to get...SST's are certainly warm enough to strengthen him. My easterly prayer comes from not wanting to get his remnants that look to be coming towards the great lakes basin sometime this weekend while i'm camping.

He has certainly gone through quite a strengthening faze and unless he starts encountering some stiff competition, we very well might be looking at a weak CAT1 hitting between myrtle beach and Wilmington.

--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status [Re: WeatherNut]
      #72957 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:51 AM

Based on the radar, it looks more like the NE part of the nascent eyewall that is open, rather than the NW. Regardless, I'm sure NHC is getting nervous about not having any hurricane advisories up for Ernesto. I wouldn't be surprised to see some hoisted up on the next advisory, even if they keep the intensity forecast slightly below hurricane strength.

This is one case where forecasting an intensity range (analogous to the "cone" for the forecast track) would be useful, rather than just a single number.


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rxbandit
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72958 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:04 AM

Being in Florence SC, 50 or so miles west of Myrtle Beach, do you think it is possible that Ernesto could avoid much of the forecasted jog to the east and instead come ashore somewhere south of Myrtle Beach, say Georgetown? I know that if I end up in the center or east of the storm that winds will be much higher. Just want to know what to expect.

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: rxbandit]
      #72960 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:12 AM

Quote:

Being in Florence SC, 50 or so miles west of Myrtle Beach, do you think it is possible that Ernesto could avoid much of the forecasted jog to the east and instead come ashore somewhere south of Myrtle Beach, say Georgetown? I know that if I end up in the center or east of the storm that winds will be much higher. Just want to know what to expect.




You're in the cone so prepare for the worst and be happy if it isn't. That's best you can do. Very unstable storm which seems capable of doing anything.

--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: rxbandit]
      #72961 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:15 AM

I expect a Hurricane Watch to be issued at 11am all the way to Cape Lookout. Shear hopefully holds this storm in check

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: HCW]
      #72962 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:28 AM

You hardly ever see the intensity listed at 55 mph, since by a quirk in the conversion scheme, 45 knots=50 mph and 50 knots=60 mph. I guess they have some wiggle room in the intermediate advisory, since that product only lists the intensity in mph. I assume the intensity will be "up" to 60 mph in the next advisory for this reason. I don't know if the next plane will be in there in time to give an update before the next advisory, which is due in 30 minutes.

The 12Z SHIPS brings Ernesto up to minimal hurricane strength, if you interpolate between the 12 hr (when it hasn't made landfall yet) and 24 hr (after landfall) forecasts.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72963 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:41 AM

(some off-topic material was removed)

Looks like a visit to NC/SC coast as a "healthy" TS. I don't think there's time for stronger development. I think though it will really be a big rain event in NC.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:38 PM)


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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72964 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:52 AM

Quote:

You hardly ever see the intensity listed at 55 mph, since by a quirk in the conversion scheme, 45 knots=50 mph and 50 knots=60 mph. I guess they have some wiggle room in the intermediate advisory, since that product only lists the intensity in mph. I assume the intensity will be "up" to 60 mph in the next advisory for this reason.




TWC just said it's now up to 60mph

--------------------
Florida Native


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Ginger]
      #72966 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:58 AM

pressure down to 994 and recon says slowly falling as per TPC discussion.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #72968 - Thu Aug 31 2006 11:02 AM

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72969 - Thu Aug 31 2006 11:10 AM

WIth Ernesto going NNE and at a faster speed he would have to make landfall from Wilmington,NC and up toward the OuterBanks right isn't it too late for a SC southern NC landfall? Some say Ernesto will make landfall tonight and Dr. Master's said this late afternoon/evening so which one is it?

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72973 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:12 PM

Ernesto is still headed in the general direction of Myrtle Beach. Latest recon finds the pressure still at 994 mb. Still looks like it is slowly getting better organized, but the NE quadrant of the storm is still pretty dry. There is an intense convective band near the center, but it is not having any luck wrapping around so far.

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Todd
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72974 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:19 PM

Not busting on you TB, but all the sites I normally go to have acient RECON data, Vortex ans Sup Votex. Where are you pulling yours from?

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HanKFranK
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rally [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72975 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:32 PM

ernesto is responding to the baroclinic environment. the pressure has fallen about 6 mb in 12 hrs reasonable to assume that between now and landfall it will drop another 4-5 mb... to the 989-990 range. that usually accompanies a minimal hurricane. latest radar shows more of an eyewall structure than earlier. there's a possibility that Ernesto will stage a little bit more of a rally, but it could just as easily hold steady. the official taking it to 60 kt is sensible and right in the middle of the range of possibilities.
on the forecast track, the center looks to move inland near north myrtle beach, sc. that would put the worst weather in brunswick county from southport over to calabash. since yesterday the structure of Ernesto has had the largest banding immediately west of the center, so horry county isn't going to get it easy, either. tropical storm force winds will probably extend inland to around maybe elizabethtown, and maybe spotty in other eastern locations in north carolina with exposures to the pamlico and albemarle sounds, or on the atlantic coast, getting such winds. there might also be some spotty reports in or off the mid-atlantic states with the increasing gradient near the coast.
ernesto will be ashore tonight, and probably extratropical by saturday. there is nothing imminent to take its place. there is an upper trough-induced surface boundary north of puerto rico that doesn't show any inclination to develop. the persistent low near 17/50, with its sporadic convection, doesn't look any better organized and has yet to do anything new (environment ahead will moisten up, but not for a couple more days... days it may not have). the wave near 33-34w is hung along an ITCZ monsoon trough, and not standing out by itself very well. globals continue to forecast development in this area, but no longer single it out (another wave coming off now has their blessing). if nothing is active in the basin when Ernesto is written off, i don't think it'll take long to get something. we're very close to the seasonal peak, and the eastpac continues active.
HF 1633z31august


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Storm Hunter
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Re: rally [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72976 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:45 PM

just talked to family in brunswick county... They said its getting windy and the tornado warning they had earlier... they hear on the scanners it may have hit a few mobile homes near the coast... Got family in shallote? and leland and boiling springs... I am from southport... so i know alot about the area.... Landfall i think inline with Hank... between North Myrtle Beach and Southport... which doesn't happen all the time...Most of the time its from Southport to the east (the Mouth of Cape Fear River). I do see the window opening up for a possible Hurricane at landfall... Thats pushing it, but it could happen.

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Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 31 2006 12:48 PM)


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BillD
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72978 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:51 PM

That recon info was in the 11:00 AM advisory, but I can't find it anywhere else. Last posted recon was from earlier this morning.

Bill


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72979 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:51 PM

Todd, I am getting my recon data from a text feed of NWS data. The NHC site hasn't been updating, possibly because the current recon data has been coming from a NOAA plane, rather than an AF plane, so the header info is different (coming from WBC rather than NHC). There is probably a way to find that data on the web somewhere, but I tried for a couple minutes and didn't have any luck. Here is the latest vortex message as of an hour ago:

URNT12 KWBC 311544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1525Z
B. 31 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1386 M
D. 50 KT
E. 260 DEG 15 NM
F. 332 DEG 38 KT
G. 280 DEG 22 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 17 C/2145 M
J. 18 C/2144 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 12 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 54 KT S QUAD 1400Z
STRONG CONVECTION S-NW OF CENTER


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ENB3
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Re: rally [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #72980 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:07 PM

Winds increasing and pressure dropping off Hilton Head
http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?graph_type=all&interval=1_day
and CHS
http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?buoy=buoy4
These buoys transmit every 2 hours. Next transmission will be at 1PM but it takes about 30 minutes for data to be QC'd and posted on website. Coastal stations (FRP1, CAP1, SUN1) transmit hourly. Unfortunately, satellite link to mid-shelf buoy off CHS (CAP3) went down on 8/23
NOAA NDBC Edisto buoy data here
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Monitor northern line for landfall, e.g., http://nautilus.baruch.sc.edu/carocoops_website/buoy_graph.php?buoy=WLS3

First time posting, so hope links work. Been lurking for a couple of years. Thanks to mods and all posters. Very impressive.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72981 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:11 PM

Here is a link to the latest NOAA vortex message:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt12.kwbc..txt

Here is a link to high-resolution data from the NOAA plane:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT40.shtml?

That data updates every 10 minutes or so when they are doing a mission with the SFMR instrument onboard. The format of that data is explained in the link below, but the most important field is the second-to-last field, which indicates the surface wind measurement from the SFMR:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85603 (scroll down slightly for the NOAA format)

The SFMR recorded a surface wind of 58 knots about 25 minutes ago, a little bit after the latest recon message was sent.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72982 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:15 PM

Here is a snippet from the high res data that recently recorded 58 knots at the surface, in an area of very strong precip:

URNT40 KWBC 311650
NOAA2 2205A Ernesto
164100 3119 07934 7095 -0010 294033 +153 +142 283058 057 020
164200 3117 07936 6944 -0014 284056 +160 +116 277060 058 044
164300 3114 07939 6789 +0025 294046 +162 +127 297052 047 009

Latest recon:

URNT12 KWBC 311654
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1635Z
B. 31 DEG 33 MIN N
79 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1372 M
D. 40 KT
E. 045 DEG 20 NM
F. 125 DEG 52 KT
G. 040 DEG 31 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 16 C/2149 M
J. 19 C/2146 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 20 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 54 KT S QUAD 1400Z
STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF CENTER


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HanKFranK
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2 pm intermediate [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72984 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:46 PM

hmmm... down 1 mb, winds rated at 70 mph. surprised they didn't tap the hurricane watches up to warnings. tbird12, that was some timely info you provided. there is a weak eye structure on radar, which hasn't improved a whole lot. if that starts becoming better defined this afternoon, the folks in horry county sc and brunswick county nc will be having an extended (but not necessarily fun) labor day weekend.
HF 1747z31august


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Todd
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72985 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:50 PM

Thanks... was FTP it down from FSU ( couldn't find info searching NOAA site but I see you did). In any case, if you take the data and plug it into the handy decorder at

http://atl.weatherxp.com/recon.htm

You'll come up with a fairly decent decode ... IE

Storm Ernesto: Observed By NOAA #2
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 54KT (62.1mph) In S Quadrant At 1400Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thu Aug 31 12:35:00 2006
Position of the center: 31 33' N 79 16' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1372m (Normal: 1457)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40KT (46MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 20nm (23miles) From Center At Bearing 045
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 52KT (59.8mph) From 125
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 31nm (35.65miles) From Center At Bearing 040
Minimum pressure: 993mb (29.32in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being POORLY DEFINED
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm

Since the 11Z it's moved 1.23 N and .44 East


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zacros
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72986 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:00 PM

This is from the 2 PM advisory.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. Ernesto COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

If that is the case, why did the NHC keep the max winds at 60 MPH in the advisory? Was this flight level winds?

A nice band of showers just moved through Charleston. Lot of rain and decent winds. Seems to be settling down again though.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Todd]
      #72987 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:09 PM

Quote:

Thanks... was FTP it down from FSU ( couldn't find info searching NOAA site but I see you did). In any case, if you take the data and plug it into the handy decorder at




Fyi we have two decoders on this site
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php
and
http://flhurricane.com/recon/.

As for the 60 vs 70 mph windspeed. They issued a correction statement shortly after it to fix the intensity.



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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: zacros]
      #72988 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:14 PM

Zacros, I'm not sure about your question... the 2pm advisory intensity was 70 mph. They haven't updated the graphics though, if that is what you mean.

The NOAA plane recently found 66 knot flight-level winds in the SE quadrant, with surface winds of 53 knots.


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zacros
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72989 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:19 PM

This excerpt is from the end of the 2PM statement.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

Hence the confusion.

Just read the post a couple above this one. I see the light now. I was reading the statements on the TS Ernesto page on the sidebar. It did not have the corrected statement.

Edited by zacros (Thu Aug 31 2006 02:23 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Could Ernesto Still Come Ashore South of Myrtle Beach? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72991 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:23 PM

The plane jusy measured 57 knots at the surface in the SW quadrant. Here is the latest recon:

URNT12 KWBC 311813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1756Z
B. 31 DEG 52 MIN N
79 DEG 9 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1379 M
D. 50 KT
E. 160 DEG 10 NM
F. 258 DEG 65 KT
G. 164 DEG 36 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 18 C/2155 M
J. 20 C/2152 M
K. 11 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A Ernesto OB 24 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 1736Z
STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF CENTER


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PULMFEL
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DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72992 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:43 PM

looking at recent sat, it appears the storm is east of predicted. does anyone else think this?

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Thunderbird12
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: PULMFEL]
      #72993 - Thu Aug 31 2006 02:48 PM

The center of Ernesto appears to be just slightly east of the forecast track at this time.

There is now an AF plane in Ernesto, so the NHC website recon data should start updating with that information.


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Rasvar
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #72994 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:09 PM

I am very surprised that the Hurricane Warning flag was not rasied at 2:00 for some are of the Hurrcane Watch area. The 2:00 PM advisory was very conflicting in its information. Most news outlets are reporting 70MPH winds. If this is what is the truth, I seems possible, if not probable, that Ernesto will be at hurricane force on landfall. Not that four miles per hour is a major jump, you do have people who ignore Tropical Storm warnings.

--------------------
Jim


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Psyber
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Rasvar]
      #72996 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:40 PM

Quote:

I am very surprised that the Hurricane Warning flag was not rasied at 2:00 for some are of the Hurrcane Watch area. The 2:00 PM advisory was very conflicting in its information. Most news outlets are reporting 70MPH winds. If this is what is the truth, I seems possible, if not probable, that Ernesto will be at hurricane force on landfall. Not that four miles per hour is a major jump, you do have people who ignore Tropical Storm warnings.




At 70mph/993 there is definately room for Ernesto to reach H1 without much work at all. I can only surmise that they think that he's still too disorganized to really spin up. Still, surprising they're being conservative on this given the SST's he's over/very little amount of sheer.

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Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Psyber]
      #72999 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:57 PM

Ernesto doesn't really look better on radar or satellite now compared to a couple of hours ago, so it is probably still a little below hurricane strength. Some of the drier sectors of the storm have filled in with more convection, but overall organization doesn't seem to have improved that much.

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HCW
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73001 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:12 PM

pressure is now down the 991mb and radar presentation is improving . T number is now 4

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hurricaneguy
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: HCW]
      #73002 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:14 PM

I thought we might escape seeing Hurricane Ernesto, but I think they will upgrade it @ 5pm. Overall preformance is improving and as just mentioned the pressure is still falling.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73003 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:19 PM

I expect we'll see hurricane warnings on the next advisory, but there hasn't been any wind data to suggest winds at hurricane force yet. The NOAA plane is headed home... it reported 69 knot flight-level winds about an hour ago, but nothing hurricane force at the surface.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73004 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:24 PM

hey guys... after a good 15mins or looking at data and radar... and now see pressure is down to 991mb... i think there could be a new center trying to form... the convection west of center appears to be where all the storngest winds are now... and on sats it looked like the inner ring that could of been the eyewall has expanded way out and collasped? I see a higher reflec. coming up on the LTX radar... wondering if it could be a new eyewall trying to form? Also just got off the phone with family... Not really windy in middle brunswick county.. the tornado warning this moring... some one spotted it visually.. so not only was it dopple inicated, it is almost confirmed... no reports of major damage yet. There is flooding in Wilimington though...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73005 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:35 PM

Storm Hunter does this mean a new center is foming over to the lft and closer to the coast? I thought storms only reformed ceners when theywere weak or trying one last hoorah(sp?) so to say.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73006 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:37 PM

There doesn't seem to be anything resembling a well-defined eye at this point, which will keep this thing in check unless that changes.

The AF plane recently found 73 knot FL winds at 850mb, which would be just below hurricane strength using the usual reduction (20%).


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GENIE
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73007 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:41 PM

I am in North Carolina about 50 miles due north of Wilmington. It looks to me like Ernesto just made some kind of drastic change. Is this eye wall replacement or something about the fronts? Just trying to learn about what I am seeing. Raining cats and dogs here off and on all day. Unfortuntely also had 3 inches of rain yesterday also.

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Lee-Delray
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73008 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:42 PM

The 5:00 still predicts a very strong TS, but doesn't rule out a hurricane

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
extensive reconnaissance with both NOAA and Air Force aircraft indicate that the maximum surface winds associated with Ernesto are 60 knots. The central minimum pressure is 991 mb. Satellite and radar presentation show a well defined convective curved band wrapping around an area of deep convection near the center. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast at 15 knots and on this track...the cyclone is forecast to reach the coast within the warning area tonight with 60 knots. One can not rule out the possibility a slight strengthening to a category one hurricane at landfall.

Once inland and beyond 36 hours...Ernesto should begin to interact with a frontal system and become extratropical by 48 hours. However...the remnant system is expected to move little and produce heavy rains over portions of the eastern United States.

The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 32.6n 78.7w 60 kt 12hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 78.0w 50 kt...inland 24hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland 36hr VT 02/0600z 38.5n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 02/1800z 41.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 03/1800z...absorbed by a frontal system

$$ forecaster Avila


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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: GENIE]
      #73009 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:43 PM

Ok you have me worried! what kind of drastic chnge did he make? I'm in your area and want to know too so I know how I'm effected Genie?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Thu Aug 31 2006 04:48 PM)


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GENIE
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #73010 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:53 PM

Sorry, should have been more specific. I was referring to what I was seeing on the water vapor and IR image. Storm seems to have lost some of the intensity in the south but the overall size and shape seems to have expanded and become more circlular. To me it looked like the storm lost intensity but organized more. So I wanted to understand what I was seeing. Thought someone could give some insights. And yes, the rain has been steady now at my location for at least the last hour.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #73011 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:54 PM

There haven't really been any drastic changes with Ernesto today, just a slow intensification that will probably continue until landfall later this evening.

I'm really surprised they haven't put up hurricane warnings. Normally, if it is this close to being a hurricane within several hours of landfall, there will be hurricane warnings in place.

edit: The apparent size increase of the storm on satellite is likely due to the slowly improving organization of the system. It's not unusual for the cloud tops to warm during the day. That does not necessarily indicate weakening, though it is a sign that the storm hasn't been rapidly intensifying.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Aug 31 2006 04:57 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73012 - Thu Aug 31 2006 05:05 PM

The radar presentation appears ragged and it does not look as if the tropical storm is strenghening any longer.

Ernesto never really packed much of a punch just mainly a lot of rain.
I know many thought it would become a hurricane but it doesn't look that way now
with only a few short miles to go until landfall of what is left of the centerl


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HanKFranK
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3-5 hours over water... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #73019 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:16 PM

looks like it will reach the coast near cape fear around 10 PM local time. the pressure falls have continued to be gradual, with just a slow improvement in organization. the convection near the center actually looked a little better about 3 hours ago. might make that slight jump to hurricane strength, or it might not.
center ought to be up near rocky mount tomorrow morning. probably just barely at tropical storm strength around then. it may stay just close enough to the chesapeake bay later tomorrow to be producing gale force winds, but probably not. should be extratropical by saturday.
looks like the heaviest rains are going to remain along and just west of the track. mostly from the waccamaw up along the coastal plain of north carolina, into the sandhills. as the center weakens the convective activity may shear off northeast, drag the main precip area up into the northeast corridor. not sure how much there will be to the west over the appalachians in va, md, pa. think most flooding problems will be in nc and va.
shouldn't be too bad of a storm, all things considered. this is far enough from the major hurricane threat in the gulf we were worrying over last week.
HF 2216z31august

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:16 PM)


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HCW
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Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73020 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:24 PM

Tornado Warnings are starting to fly now . With 2 up right now at the time of this post




Can a mod change the level 3 radar recorder to this URL ? Thanks

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Ryan
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Ernesto Forecast [Re: HCW]
      #73021 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:35 PM

i think Ernesto will get to 75 mph before landfalling. If it doesnt it will come very close. The local weather stations are saying anywhere from 1.5-3.5 inches of rain here on Long Island and wind gusts of 45 mph. They are saying total washout for saturday. Im thinking Ernesto will affect the Carolinas more than it affected florida. We'll see what happens at landfall tonight or early tomorrow.

--------------------
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Storm Hunter
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Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: HCW]
      #73022 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:38 PM

yeah just had to talk my family through the torn warnings...the one coming ashore in carteret county... STILL rotation as it comes ashore at the State Park there on the island... (running GRlevel II and Google Earth with radar overlayed) pretty cool images.... cells south of southport.. show signs of rotation... so everyone in SE North Carolina show keep an to the LOCAL wx/tv stations.... this will be quick and fast when they pop up.

--------------------
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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ed in Va
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Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73032 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:43 PM

Anybody else can a fix on the path...tough to find the center? It looks to me that it may go some west of Wilmington.


http://intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPag...mp;prodnav=none

--------------------
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GENIE
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Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73034 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:48 PM

is it just because of satellite presentation on IR and WV that that Ernesto appears to be forming an eye. Could one of the Mets comment on this? Just trying to learn how to interpert what we see on satellite images. Not trying to cause any worries.

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zacros
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Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73039 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:02 PM

Looking at the radar, it almost looks like the rain along the GA/SC border is being pulled into Ernesto circulation. I thought that the rain was over here in Charleston, but we may get one more shot before it is all said and done.

Ernesto certainly has deepened today. It does not look like the NHC will make a hurricane call on this one. Is it possible in the post storm analysis that they will adjust the intesity of the storm?


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danielwAdministrator
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Eye Question [Re: GENIE]
      #73041 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:06 PM

I don't see a MET on line right now. But typically a storm needs to be a Hurricane with wind speeds near 90mph for an EYE to form.

However, that's not written in stone. And with this particular storm... anything is possible.


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Todd
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Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73045 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:14 PM

Hurricane hunter about an hour ago reported pressure down to 988 . Good banding but no eye

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73050 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:25 PM

I'm seeing a follow up VORTEX with:

L. OPEN N-ENE
M. C20

So there is evidence of a Partial Center or EYE.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 31 2006 08:42 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Eye Question [Re: Todd]
      #73051 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:28 PM

Last 2 frames of the floater 2 sat show a distinct eye forming

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WeatherNut
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Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73052 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:33 PM

Its pretty clearly visible on every recent sat image I've seen

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LoisCane
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Re: Eye Question [Re: WeatherNut]
      #73054 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:51 PM

Well, NHC has been good with track mostly but I would think he would go more east.

Ernesto has been left of track always and watching him on radar doesn't always give you the best idea on what is going on inside the storm.

Learned that in Miami... interesting storm. Just hard to track compared to many.. watching to see what he does.

Think it's interesting we are going into September and dealing with this sort of track.. makes you wonder what will come later in the month.

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CarolinaGurl
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Re: Eye Question [Re: LoisCane]
      #73058 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:16 PM

Dr. Lyons on TWC just said it would go onshore to the east of the Cape Fear River. We have had over 6.5 inches of rain here today, may get up to a foot. Should have the worst of it from 10:00 to 12:00.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Eye Question [Re: LoisCane]
      #73059 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:17 PM

I just added an icon to show Mark Sudduth's ( http://www.hurricanetrack.com ) current position (well his HIRT vehicle anyway... update every few minutes or so) on the storm plot google map.

Still watching Ernesto.


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: Eye Question [Re: MikeC]
      #73064 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:31 PM

Do you know if they are in Wilmington, or somewhere else? There comments say the were on Oak Island and then downtown Wilmington.

Sorry, just answered my own question. they are in Kure Beach, I just recognized the Big Daddy's sign in a picture. Thanks anyway.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur

Edited by CarolinaGurl (Thu Aug 31 2006 09:34 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Eye Question [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73066 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:36 PM

Quote:

Do you know if they are in Wilmington, or somewhere else? There comments say the were on Oak Island and then downtown Wilmington.

Sorry, just answered my own question. they are in Kure Beach, I just recognized the Big Daddy's sign in a picture. Thanks anyway.




Yeah it's Kure Beach, the map autoupdates from their GPS position every few minutes (while its working anyway). It's the big yellow pin on the google map plot.


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HanKFranK
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next up... [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73067 - Thu Aug 31 2006 09:39 PM

ernesto will make landfall in the next hour or two at oak island, nc. coming close enough that wilmington should get a pretty good windstorm out of this tonight. they'll probably get a couple hours of sustained tropical storm force winds, maybe a gust to hurricane force. center should be on the west side of town at the next advisory. any upgrade to hurricane that's ever made will be posthumous, as the center should be onshore at the next advisory cycle. it looks like it just baaaarely didn't make it. it is drenching eastern north carolina and flooding there and further north in the mid atlantic will likely be the greater part of this storm's legacy.
we're probably going to have two more tropical cyclones in the eastern atlantic before the weekend is out. the small low at around 16/51 has flared deep convection tonight and this might get the ball rolling for it. it is a small feature and has the potential to spin up quickly. some shear to the west should move it wnw and just north of the islands if it develops. the other feature is a low developing near 12/36 along a tropical wave. it is finally getting some definition from the monsoon trough down there. i'd give it a somewhat better chance of slow development, as it is broad but slowly organizing, and in a favorable environment. the only potential hurdle is another wave overtaking it and disrupting its circulation. this one has had good model support.
september should provide quick replacements for Ernesto once it goes inland and washes out.
HF 0139z01september


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73071 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:06 PM

For those that don't have access to marc's live streaming video (hurricanelivenet ), he's showing shingles coming off roofs and power lines going down along the path he's in . winds of around 65mph he's recording now (gusts, steady just over 40mph). (See the Google map plot and look for the yellow pin icon.

-- 10:34

Marc's getting steady winds of 55mph wind gusts to 70mph



Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 31 2006 10:36 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: next up... [Re: MikeC]
      #73073 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:43 PM

Quote:

For those that don't have access to marc's live streaming video (hurricanelivenet ), he's showing shingles coming off roofs and power lines going down along the path he's in . winds of around 65mph he's recording now (gusts, steady just over 40mph). (See the Google map plot and look for the yellow pin icon.

-- 10:34

Marc's getting steady winds of 55mph wind gusts to 70mph






My husband actually works for the town they are in. I called and told him about the power lines and they were going to go check it out. The truck is sitting at the Fort Fisher military museum overlook of the ocean.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Storm Hunter
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Re: next up... [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73075 - Thu Aug 31 2006 11:42 PM

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF Ernesto MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF Ernesto MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH.

$$

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 31 2006 11:44 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: next up... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73077 - Fri Sep 01 2006 12:11 AM

anybody know the exact location of long beach? SFC obs out of the brunswick county airport (just west of southport) made it look like the center tracked in just to the east (winds dropped to almost nothing near the time of landfall). all i can figure is that the landfall point was just east of caswell beach at the eastern end of oak island... only smith island to the east of that... cape fear is the pointed southeastern tip of smitht island.
anyhow, the brunswick county airport also reported a min. pressure at 988 mb. doesn't look like it hit the center of the eye. i guess whenever Ernesto is written up (late in the fall, probably) they'll say whether it was that or a mb or two lower.
HF 0412z01september

oh, ok... it's the western tip of oak island. i either misread the obs or the winds were variable in the eye. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 01 2006 12:17 AM)


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LaVidaCyclone
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Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73080 - Fri Sep 01 2006 12:45 AM

Here's a nice look from the Moorehead City, NC radar at 12:30 EDT

http://www.angelfire.com/planet/sieklone06/ernestoradar3.hm

Ernie sure looks impressive.

Edited by LaVidaCyclone (Fri Sep 01 2006 01:05 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: next up... [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #73081 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:00 AM

hmmm... that's interesting. the station at wilmington international is reporting a pressure of 986 mb. maybe the landfall induced some tightening of the vortex. winds are out of the south at 21 mph, so it is east of the center. min pressure might be even a tad lower.
HF 0501z01september


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LaVidaCyclone
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Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73083 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:10 AM

Maybe an intensity upgrade is in order? It'll be interesting once daylight breaks and they're able to see what damage was caused. Then they'll have an even better idea of "what" actually made landfall.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73085 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:35 AM

yeah saw that ILM reported and pressure that low.. my grandmother is directly between the ILM airport and Brunswick County airport... (boiling spring)....based on what she was telling me on the phone... i think landfall was about right... she said winds went form blowing pretty strong to very light in about 2-5 mins i was on the phone with her... about the time i could tell on radar the northern center band was coming across... said power went on and off all night.... She has part of a wx station hooked up to her at the house and she did see the pressure fall... Thinks she saw... about 29.31-33?... I would say that landfall occured at the mouth of cape fear..between caswell beach and Smith island (aka Bald Head Island) (Oak Island is the whole island if i recall... they have long beach, caswell beach and youpon beach)... Hey being from there...note the sim? Smith island... my last name... Yep... My great-greatgrandfather ran the lighthouse that still sits over there on the island...

Google Map Of My Hometown!

Closet Offical Wx Obs to Landfall
Althougt i know there are two personal wx obs stations on Oak Island... will post link when i can find them in my archives

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 01 2006 01:38 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: next up... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73086 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:46 AM

I would be satisfied with an upgrade of Ernesto to 75 mph hurricane at landfall. It does appear that Ernesto did improve structure within the last hour or so before landfall, and right at landfall. This would also make two times that Ernie pulled an 11th - as in south Florida, where some, who had heard that he was a glorified afternoon shower, were surprised as his pressure dropped at landfall, giving some spots some pretty gusty winds.

This time-sensitive JSL enhanced loop of "Ernesto" clearly shows a very organized blow-up of deep convection in the last couple of frames, with a dead-on attempt to really concentrate about the eye/eyewall. - For help seeing this, click on the "Trop Pts" (tropical forecast points) and alternate overlay with the "Radar" overlay.

Also, a location not really right in the eye recorded a minimum pressure of 986mb, or 1mb below the barometric pressure level often associated with a marginal cat 1 hurricane. And especially given that this reading was quite likely not in the exact center at time of lowest barometric pressure, it is arguably equally likely that Ernesto's actual min. surface pressure was even less than this.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: next up... [Re: cieldumort]
      #73087 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:57 AM

here's a link to a weather obs in southport on the cape fear river.. the water front... from what i can tell.. i would put this the closet to landfall right now... scroll down to bottom of page trying to verify the location....looks like this is from the river pliot office... pressure guage must of been down!! There is a Coast Guard Office on Caswell Beach
http://cfpilot.com/weather/screenID001.jpg

a personal obs station every 5-10 mins
more live stations... scroll down... Highest gust i could find... 51mph.. most all stations show pressure 986mb as lowest
http://home.ec.rr.com/currentweather/usa.htm
However i did find a 985mb.. at st. james... on the intercoastal waterway just west of brunswick county airport... they will have to make sure the guage is correct Mariners Way, St. James, NC

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 01 2006 02:11 AM)


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