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Wet & Windy Gulf of Mexico as Old #98L Remains a Player. Also Watching Invest 99L in Western Caribbean Sea.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 58 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3232 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2006 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2294
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Central Atlantic
      #72875 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:06 PM

Small tropical low near 17.5N 48W at 31/00Z moving west at 10 knots. Convection has blossomed in the past 5 hours. Shear is currently light, but expected to increase in about 36 hours. SST about 28C. System has some potential for additional development in a couple of days. Something new to watch.
ED


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 244
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #72965 - Thu Aug 31 2006 10:53 AM

Getting busy in the Atlantic. Here are two more areas where I'm seeing some vorticity. 44W 18N and 34W 13N. I'm sure we'll see our next invest out of one these areas of convection soon or both.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #72972 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:12 PM

144 hours out onGFS, CMC, and NOGAPS and the 120 hours out on FSU all show a cape verde system with a pressure about 996 mb. What do people think about this?

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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BillyG60
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: 28.14N 80.59W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: Ryan]
      #72977 - Thu Aug 31 2006 12:47 PM

Cant find any info about thst blob north of PR. Is it upper level low?

Billy


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: BillyG60]
      #72983 - Thu Aug 31 2006 01:38 PM

I am quite sure that it is an upper level-low. Looking at the ITCZ, things seem to be heating up. Still, dry air & shear has been the big reason for less storms this season.

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Edited by Bee-Beep (Thu Aug 31 2006 01:40 PM)


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: Bee-Beep]
      #72995 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:15 PM

There has been an increase in convection over the last 4 hours at 13N / 35 W. Any thoughts?

Central Atlantic - AVN


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2294
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: Black Pearl]
      #72998 - Thu Aug 31 2006 03:54 PM

This tropical wave has good structure (actual latitude is about 10N) but it will soon encounter some modest wind shear. It does however have some chance for additional development in a couple of days.

It is worth noting that the African continent itself looks quite barren this evening - highly unusual for this time in the season.
ED


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 244
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Area of Interest - Central Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73017 - Thu Aug 31 2006 05:30 PM

Nws/TPC High seas forecasts pick up on a couple of features we have been talking about,GFS, CMC and UKMET initialize what were seeing around 10N. Send it NW looking for weakness in the ridge only CMC does anything with it, morphs it together with the stronger wave that the other models develop. CMC is a strange model always seems to over develop systems.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/marine/MIAHSFAT2

Edited by craigm (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:31 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Area of Interest [Re: craigm]
      #73128 - Fri Sep 01 2006 04:35 PM

I wonder how much weight was given to atmospheric conditions being affected by the general dry conditions as well as the amount of Saharan dust off Africa? Surely these must have been considered in trending the number of storms for the season. If not- I wonder if there is a way of incorporating these factors for future predictions.

I wonder how this will impact on the new 98L (13N/35W ) and the others off Africa?

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________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Sep 01 2006 04:37 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2294
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73149 - Sat Sep 02 2006 09:31 AM

This small tropical low has finally developed and maintained convection and has now been identified as Invest 99L. The system is passing through the southern Leeward Islands. Although not the best of environments, some slow development is possible as the system moves to the west and west northwest.
ED


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