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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
TD6...maybe an east coast swell maker? [Re: craigm]
      #73211 - Sun Sep 03 2006 06:43 PM

Maybe this storm (TD6) will be one of those classic Atlantic storms which head for us but then recurves doing nothing but giving us some decent surf. It has been since at least 2003 that we had a storm take that track. With all the storms going into the Gulf or making a beeline for Florida the classic long line hurricane ground swells have been non-existant on our coast. In my opinion that is the only good thing to come out of these systems.

Edited by richisurfs (Sun Sep 03 2006 06:47 PM)


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parrishNfl
Unregistered




Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73213 - Sun Sep 03 2006 06:50 PM

NOAA satellite has tracking markers, and Accuweather has called this TD6 Florence. Has there been a change in status in the last hour and 45 minutes? We too believe this is a bad news storm.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: parrishNfl]
      #73214 - Sun Sep 03 2006 06:58 PM

Accuweather is trying to sell ad space again. NHC calls for it to be a hurricane in a few days, but intensity projections are not always accurate. Best we can do for a few days is watch.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: parrishNfl]
      #73217 - Sun Sep 03 2006 07:46 PM

The official NHC 5 day forecast has it as a TS at the next advisory, so I guess everyone is gearing up for that to happen. I don't doubt it, TD6 has been a TD all day and was probably borderline TS already. But without recon or direct observations there isn't any point in naming it early. Particulary the way things have been going this year, and it is definitely going to deal with some serious shear. But I agree, this is one to watch.

Bill


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #73218 - Sun Sep 03 2006 07:47 PM

There really wasn't the convective organization requisite for 90L to have been upgraded this morning, though. That came during the course of the morning and the early afternoon, and I think 5p was the appropriate time for an upgrade. We have tools like QuikSCAT, satellite, and even a buoy nearby (as referenced in the 5p discussion), so I don't think the data void holds as much credence as it once did. It's mostly a question of organization, and this feature didn't really have it until later today...IMO.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #73219 - Sun Sep 03 2006 07:53 PM

They had it upgraded before that on the Navy page, I think it was before 3pm eastern. And the NHC did state in the earlier TWOs today that they anticipated they would start issuing notices on it today, so it wasn't unexpected.

Now it's a case of water torture -- literally. We have to sit here until at least Wednesday or so before we have a really clear idea of where this beastie is going to go for sure.

Figures. I pulled my boards down yesterday. Ugh.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
TD6 [Re: madmumbler]
      #73220 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:08 PM

TD6 is now on floater 1

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: madmumbler]
      #73221 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:16 PM

If I were the NHC I would have done exactly what they did. As Clark said, it really didn't start to get better organized until late morning, early afternoon. And with their forecast, they are suggesting it will be a TS very soon. But this is one to watch, and wait, a while, before we have any idea what to expect.

I know what you mean about the shutters, we started putting our generator gas into our cars today (I hate to think about the time I spent waiiting in line to get it in the first place!).

Bill


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dkblostnottinghamsmoney
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #73222 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:29 PM

I know its very early to speculate...but am I reading that GFDL model right??? cat 3-4 ???? I hope am reading it like the novice I am.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: dkblostnottinghamsmoney]
      #73223 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:32 PM

It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility but the GFDL has always been bullish one run and dissipating at the next with a developing system.


And yes, it shows it reach cat four strength.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: TD6 [Re: NewWatcher]
      #73224 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:36 PM

the 98L disturbance southwest of TD 6... it's staying put and still has convection generating nearby. i'm wondering if it's going to have a sort of fujiwhara-slingshot effect on TD 6 and have it pivot around and ahead to the north. that actually looks like some of what recent GFS runs were showing. naturally i'd think that two disturbances that close to each other would cannibalize, but if TD 6 gets slung north into stronger shear and weakens.. and also gets into the faster flow.. it could actually go around 98L and leave it. with the other disturbance closing from the east i'm not sure if all this could play out. it's just one possibility, and would represent a chance for 98L to develop as well. TD 6 could also die in the projected shear and leave 98L to become the dominant feature. either way there should be a hurricane coming out east/northeast of the islands by later next week.
the disturbance to the rear may well get a Dvorak rating/invest put on it in the next day or two. it isn't getting TWO mentions yet, but that should be forthcoming. in the western part of the atlantic there doesn't appear to be anything doing. 99L is opened up and moving quickly in a sheared environment, and appears to be traveling down the long axis of the upper jet max rather than across it, so it'll probably just continue west and never develop. there's always a chance something will try to pop up in the leavings behind Ernesto near the bahamas, but none of the globals show such a thing. the first week of september is high noon for the eastern atlantic to be producing, and that appears to be the way of things right now.
HF 0037z04september


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hornedcow
Unregistered




Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #73226 - Sun Sep 03 2006 08:55 PM

Quote:

Well, no. When I wrote this up, NHC had not publicly acknowledged TD6. Sure, you could find "6" and "No Name" up elsewhere, but not at the NHC site.




That elsewhere is the Naval Research Lab, I think we can trust them - especially since they work in conjuntion with the NHC, they just update quicker (for new storms and sat obs)


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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73227 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:02 PM

John
I dont understand what you are saying. You mention this being an east coast storm but later that there will be blocking involved to prevent that. This is the way I am reading your post. Forgive me if Im wrong. Could you please dummy it up for me. Thank you


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73228 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:07 PM

"It's time to at least give this a mention"

No, I don't want to get into this kind of wild speculation. While it is true that the GFS does position the system well offshore the Northeast - that is a model plot that is over 10 days into the future, i.e., next to meaningless. A lot will change between now and then that will have an eventual influence on the track of this storm. Lets wait and see if it can survive the next couple of days first.

Anything beyond the realm of the NHC 5-day forecast belongs in the Forecast Lounge because, as I've stated before, you cannot use long range model output as your rationale or justification. Its got to be more than that (only nothing else exists that I know of).

Lets not generate a fever pitch until this system develops a temperature.
Thanks in advance,
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73229 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:19 PM

That was my question last week when people didn't want to believe the NHC forecast 3 days out and yet trackers who desire long tracking storms were staring at 15 and 16 day forecast of the same models they didn't want to hold from by Ernesto.

Funny, show someone a Cape Verde and people suddenly sit up and pay attention.

You are right. Too soon to get into Intensity Hype and yet I do see Tip's point but I think we should wait a little while longer to see:
how much the trough pulls at it
how much lat it gains while going NW
if we know for sure where the true center is and that another center won't take over
to see for sure that the trough doesn't dig because it does look like it might dig a bit more than planned

There is plenty of time to go into hype mode in a few days.

By then we will know if it is going, as my Grandma used to say Cape Verde Storms do.. Up and OVER the islands... before bending back.

And, if I remember that GFS from last week it showed it turning Floyd like in the Bahamas and anything past that is for sure long term speculation.

For those of you who wanted a long tracker.. you got your wish.. and it has a baby sybling behind it too!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise. [Re: LoisCane]
      #73230 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:28 PM

One thing to note is the NHC's 5 pm discussion of TD #6 specifially mentions its uncertainty on the intensity forecast as well as forward speed on the storm. That building ridge makes me nervous for anyone on the coast..we are talking about close to a week before we know where this thing is going and who is going to be effected...

*obivously there is alot to forecasting and of course there are question marks all over every forecast track. But with NHC mentioning the two factors I talked about above, well this is where we'll have the most trouble determining the impact of what is currently TD6 (although I think Florence is within the next two complete advisories)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
they mention timing.... [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73231 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:31 PM

you cant get intensity right if you don't get the timing right

they go hand in hand, otherwise you got a catcher sitting out on a baseball diamond all by himself waiting for the pitcher and the rest of the team to show up..

timing is everything, its the key to forecast intensity..
if you are wrong on the timing of an event like a trough's arrival or a building ridge..
you get the intensity off badly

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: they mention timing.... [Re: LoisCane]
      #73232 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:33 PM

T Numbers a re up to 2.5 as of 2345 UTC.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73233 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:34 PM

It's ok my friend..
...HankFrank has informed me that my post might be a little difficult to understand for some.
My fault!

Here is what I said in simpler terms:
1) The "block" would be a high pressure system, both surface and aloft, developing ...approximately between 45 and 65W, with an axis near 40N. If you could imagine a circle surround 55W/40N that encompasses this imaginary region, that is where atmosphere will have higher pressure. This is developing, while at the same time there is a GFS ensemble derived +NAO emerging.

**The NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation. It is derived by a complex series of equations known as EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). I know what they are conceptually, but I was never required to learn them while as an undergrad. The short and skinny is, they create what are called "characteristics" of a field and the output have values at or above and below 0.0. When they are < 0.0, we say the NAO is in negative. When they are > 0.0, we say the NAO is positive. Right now the values are negative, but, the outlook is for them to become positive.

A little background. +NAOs tend have lower heights and pressures at very high latitudes. This means that heights and pressures tend to be higher at middle latitudes (in the case this discussion, 55W by 40N fits very well with that expectation). The opposite is true for -NAO "phase states" as it is called. -NAOs tend to have higher heights and pressures at very high latitudes, with troughiness tending to form at similar middle latitudes as 55W by 40N.

So, putting this all together: That is why this block has a certain air of confidence, because it is depicted by multiple models, as well as having the +NAO index on its side - by the time we get out 5+ days in time.

And, to answer your question, the block in question was not along the EC but in the NW Atlantic - extending some distance E. This will stop the hurricane (should it become so) from "recurving" out to sea.

Where does that leave us? The other option is right along the path that the GFDL and some global models are showing some interesting if not alarming agreement around, which is due W along the 25-28N region. This will be happening while the block is producing deep layer (tending to be uniform at higher altitudes) easterly winds, which will be very low shear tendencies. As also mentioned, high oceanic heat content is in the area (not having earlier season events helps that along). This all points to a very interesting signal along the EC, wouldn't you think? The last element I mentioned was that a trough is approaching the mountains of eastern N/A. That could also be problematic for areas if the steering field is thus tipped S.

Basically, imagine a dipole of a low height field near KT and a high height field SE of Nove Scotia... The conduit is right between them along the EC.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: they mention timing.... [Re: LoisCane]
      #73234 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:38 PM

I think the main theme got lost... we are speaking about models. Lets keep that in mind and await more info as time goes forward, both modeling and other forecast data.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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