Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 175 (Zeta) , Major: 238 (Laura) Florida - Any: 924 (Michael) Major: 924 (Michael)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise. [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73235 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:43 PM

Hi,
we are in the process of moving my posts on the subject matter to there appropriate locations on the Forum. Apologies. This should have gone in the Forecast Lounge.
John


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Hey Tip... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73239 - Sun Sep 03 2006 10:34 PM

Thanks for reminding me to go in the forecast lounge and lounge around... a good reminder

And, I do hear you and I do take it seriously.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Hey Tip... [Re: LoisCane]
      #73241 - Sun Sep 03 2006 10:44 PM

From the 10pm Discussion...

WE BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING.

It also talks more about forward speed...slower track this time around...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rosehill
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: al
Re: Hey Tip... [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73249 - Mon Sep 04 2006 12:00 AM

This is a bit off topic but our local met (Dothan, Al.)seemed a bit concerned about the convection in the gulf on the sw side of Fla. I've heard no talk about this in the recent discussions. Does anyone see any cause for concern?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Hey Tip... [Re: rosehill]
      #73250 - Mon Sep 04 2006 12:13 AM

Is this the center of TD6.?


--------------------


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Hey Tip... [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73252 - Mon Sep 04 2006 12:55 AM

The Center of TD 6 appears to be further to the east. Old 98Lis still trying to spin on as a weaker low to the WS of the area you showed...Models may have some difficulty with the evolution of this complex as a whole, but TD06 will likely take over with time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Hey Tip... [Re: dem05]
      #73254 - Mon Sep 04 2006 01:17 AM

yeah, 98L's days are probably numbered. tropical cyclones are usually cannibalistic of each other when they get too close. that area coming from the east out near the CV islands is probably also going to get close enough to at least be acted on by TD 6 or future florence. posted a rambling tidbit about the ramifications of some of the modeling on TD 6, the climatology of storms like the one it shows, and what may become of the tropical wave trailing back near the cape verde islands.
for the ga/al/fl tristate area poster... who was probably watching wtvy 4 (unless they have another dothan station now), that mess around florida doesn't have a huge chance of stewing up into something, and if it does it'll be whipped northeast in a baroclinic environment ahead of an oncoming trough that is going to dig down into the southeast. in other words any threat would be to peninsular florida and the atlantic seaboard north to hatteras maybe. it looks like the gulf will be 'guarded' against activity into midmonth.
hmm... latest GFS (00z) breaks the ridge on future florence and takes it due north along 60W. not the most believable track... it does that a lot, though, early on. it'll waffle back to a westward track with newer runs, most likely.
HF 0518z04september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Primary LLC and Track [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73256 - Mon Sep 04 2006 01:48 AM

This will be another one my replies that I want to admit beforehand comes with not nearly as much time spent reviewing everything - so, it is with that qualifier that I want to say, from what I have seen of the satellite loops (all kinds) and the microwave passes thus far, the healthiest center of circulation I can ascertain (among the several) seems to me to be closer to 16N 39W and appears to be heading much more NNW than NW -

There are certainly some blowups of convection along some of the bands, but all of the most impressive bands also seem to me to roll into this one centrally located low-level spin - that seems to be the most stable of them all - Easier to make out on the RGB tonight - especially when taking advantage of the zoom.

Still see a little rotation and convergence where 98 once was, as well.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #73258 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:03 AM

Is this link saying a Cat 3 eventually???

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...ve&partner=


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: ltpat228]
      #73259 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:23 AM

Yes it does but dont hold to that accu weather loves to bring the hype early they had chris a cat 2 three days after it devolped and look what happened.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: dhsfireman]
      #73260 - Mon Sep 04 2006 05:44 AM

hey guys good morning! what happen to TD 6? i was hoping she would be named by the time ii woke up. is this one of those slow slow takers across the atl? and i know its to early but does this look like a worse case scenario for florida?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: nl]
      #73261 - Mon Sep 04 2006 06:00 AM

Morning- TD6 will be named later as SWesterly shear is impacting its development- as predicted. It is traveling NW but that trough will eventually impact its path to a more westerly trend; too soon to say if it will impact Bahamas or SE USA-.

Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Mon Sep 04 2006 06:06 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: dhsfireman]
      #73263 - Mon Sep 04 2006 09:21 AM

Quote:

Yes it does but dont hold to that accu weather loves to bring the hype early they had chris a cat 2 three days after it devolped and look what happened.




Exactly. Compare Accuweather's Cat 3 in 5 days with the actual model runs which only reach Cat 1 in 5 days (click Early-cycle intensity guidance "frame 1") - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #73265 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:00 AM

Very messy system this morning. First thing discussion does it say how it has several centers and they they go with one for a possible scenario. Maybe one center will move off nnw and leave the middle center behind?

Not sure but right now there is shear, there is not a big, massive, blocking high and there is not yet one dominant center.

Thanks for the link to Accuweather, its that time of year I sign up for a month and might enjoy it.

Either way, thanks for the update. I continue to be skeptical and when I woke up this morning they said on local TV that there is a lot of uncertainity in the long term forecast .. and I agree...

Just have to wait and see what happens. Last night I thought the middle cell had a chance to take over but now I'm not sure.. feels like the movie Three Faces of Eve but that was the E storm and not sure if this is the F storm or not.

The wave closer to Africa has a better look and a much wetter environment thanks to TD6 covering most of the general ITCZ with moisture.

Just my morning thoughts..

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 04 2006 10:14 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: ltpat228]
      #73267 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:39 AM

the forecast models can't ascetain where TD6 will be in 6 days let alone the intensity. Multiple vortices, the Saharan dust, the trough all are independent variables that play a role in the future path of this system. I guess what I'm saying is that it is too premature to model this thing into a category 3- I do not see a basis for this determination.

Also, these systems starting from this point of origin have traditionally recurved to the north as they moved to the NW. Then again- who knows

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Mon Sep 04 2006 10:48 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #73274 - Mon Sep 04 2006 11:47 AM

Last couple of frames of RGB loop appear like TD-6 is getting it's act together. I'm seeing an elongated COC oriented east to west and appears to be picking up speed with more of a wnw motion. Earlier it seemed a circulation center was more to the NE. This one on the western side of the convection seems dominant now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #73276 - Mon Sep 04 2006 12:47 PM

Florence is a fish spinner.....will likely not make it to 65W...too much troughiness over the Western Atlantic for the next 2 weeks.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TD06
Unregistered




Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #73278 - Mon Sep 04 2006 01:44 PM

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATH OF FLO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS PREDICTING A FISH STORM, LETS NOT FORGET A LOT AND MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL TAKE THIS STORM IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHEAST, WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE TILL THE 5 PM FORECAST TRACK TO COME, THEN WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON WHAT THE NHC IS THINKING CONCERNING THIS STORM FUTURE TRACK. FEEL FREE TO SEND SOME FEEDBACKS!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #73280 - Mon Sep 04 2006 01:53 PM

florence will probably hang up near 65w. it's going to move faster than the GFS shows because that model has it snagging on the feature to the east, which isn't going to happen. the quick-out recurvature that the canadian shows is it's ticket to early escape... the GFS hanging it up then drifting straight north through a ridge fracture it creates is it's typical early-run garbage. that block in the northeast also is unlikely to hang back over the continent.. GFS has a rex further west holding intact and taking two weeks to cross the continent, which would be bizarre... with ioke recurving in the westpac right now it's going to energize the westerlies and probably punch all those little blocks the GFS is making out into shortwaves.
what i see is more likely is A) florence moves faster to the west and doesn't catch the early recurvature
B) the western atlantic ridge doesn't just fracture of it's own accord, holds florence in place while the trough to the north splits and C) the block shown by the GFS hanging over the northeast actually ends up in the western atlantic like the last one, and after hanging up around next weekend florence just continues west-northwest.
that's where i'm laying my early bet. it may still recurve further west, but i don't think the feature shown by most of the globals getting 'florence' will do more than slow the track and bend it right for a couple of days. 'course i'll start buying the current solution of most global models if they keep showing the ridge weakening and fracturing near 60w and letting the storm ride straight out.
HF 1754z04september

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 04 2006 01:54 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73281 - Mon Sep 04 2006 02:42 PM

It's all about timing, right? Accuweather is shoing (at least this AM) TD6 emerging as a Category 3 by Saturday AM; it is conceivable that Florence can go further west if it speeds up ahead of the trough descending on it.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 43 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 97720

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center