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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73283 - Mon Sep 04 2006 03:18 PM

Boy, I go out of town for a few days, and the Atlantic really starts to light up!

TD Six doesn't look impressive on satellite to me. Maybe it was more impressive over the weekend. It does look like a fish spinner, although the 5-day track takes it in the general direction of the Bahamas.
99L is more impressive to me right now - but then again, it's also closer to the U.S.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73284 - Mon Sep 04 2006 03:25 PM

as of right now, all i can say is wherever this goes, if it is land, is in for it. On one site i saw, GFDL has future Florence strengthening to a strong category 4 storm. Then in the last frame, the start of a curve northward. There is talk on oldfarmersalmanac.com and other forums of this being "the big one for the NE." No i am no wishcasting i am just stating what i heard. I am not saying i dont agree with this somewhat though. The storm reminds me a lot of last years irene that came pretty close to the coast before turning, but some say "this will not be turning out to sea" and some say "it's definatley a fish spinner." Who do i believe and when do i start worrying. Only time will tell but im thinking before the sun comes up tomorrow, we wwill have TS Florence. What does everyone think about the possible "N.E. THREAT?"

PS--my birthday is tomorrow and there always has to be a tropical system so here we go..haha

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: Ryan]
      #73286 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:02 PM

The opinions from the people who forecast for a living do not remotely know what is going to happen with this system. The professional opinions that I have read are that the storm has a good deal of trofiness and shear from tme to time in its path. One never knows from model run to model run if the information is going to pan out or not that is placed into the computers. I have seen the models forecast hurricane strength storms in the winter. Any one who concentrates on one model to the exclusion of real time data needs to go to a Science museum and sit in a hurricane simulator for 24 hours. This storm is too far away from the US mainland to do anything other than recognize it is there.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: johnnyg]
      #73287 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:04 PM

I think we are going to see slow development with TD 6 for another 36-48 hours then it's going to significantly increase in intensity. A few models are showing the ridge maybe not being as strong as originally thought. Plus if the ridge in the Atlantic does weaken after 5 or 6 days and TD 6 keeps slowing down, then there will be a shift towards the NE.

RIght now the NHC isn't curving their track north..they are keeping it due west pretty much. They also don't see a tropical storm until possibly tonight at 10 or tomorrow morning. Circulation looks better today though...


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73293 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:53 PM

waiting and watching, not a storm at 5
nothing basically has changed

but on the water vapor i can see the high beginning to build in flat and wide

now all it has to do is develop

would be funny if this was Gordon and Florence was elsewhere

see yall at 11pm

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: LoisCane]
      #73295 - Mon Sep 04 2006 05:02 PM

A few forecast track models from Sep 4. as of about 4:00 EDT.
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/sieklone06/td6-track1.htm

No predictions beyond 120 hrs. at this point

(the above page will not be updated)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: LoisCane]
      #73296 - Mon Sep 04 2006 05:24 PM

I see TD6 may indeed pick up speed in a westward fashion if the high ridge does develop to its north. 99 may beat 90L as Florence although i see 99L not impacting the US as it trends westward as well.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73300 - Mon Sep 04 2006 06:15 PM

99L isn't there anymore. the low opened up yesterday and it's just a low amplitude wave headed to central america. the two weak waves behind it have more potential. TD 6 has probably been florence all day. unflagged 30 kt vectors mean the winds are a little stronger in convection, so it's sort of duh, it's a tropical storm. but the NHC guys like to see all the satellite estimates pegged at t2.5 and increasing convection, so they're just waiting on it to leave no doubt. think the mid-range motion will bend more to the left than shown, then slow and bend back to the right a little more than shown. end result should be it being about where NHC says in 5, maybe a tad farther west. what i'm seeing in the globals makes me think it gets stuck in a col next weekend then the ridge rebuilds. it could still be stuck then, but probably moving nw again next week.
the system to the east looks like a developer now. it looked OK yesterday, but looking good today. surprised no invest or Dvorak ratings. eventually they'll tag it. 91L.
the stuff near florida is probably of no consequence.
HF 2215z04september


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73303 - Mon Sep 04 2006 06:49 PM

Hank, If you think it's been a TS all day do you still think it is? It looks extremely disorgnized now in my opinion - much less impressive then earlier in the day. And when a storm is this far our doesnt the NHC almost always need some heavy, persistant convecton over the center before they make the upgrade? No doubt that uncontaminated 30kt wind vectors would suggest stronger winds in the heaviest convection, but it seems to go with the NHC's track record of not upgrading when a storm is this far out when it looks the way it does.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Myles]
      #73304 - Mon Sep 04 2006 07:04 PM

The question to me isn't so much is this system a tropical storm, but is it a tropical cyclone at all? Looking at the last several visible images, and now that the sun has set, at the IR images, it looks like a trough/front, not a cyclone. Actuallly there is more concentrated convection on the northern side of the trough, well away from what the NHC is calling TD 6, and also well southwest of it. In the middle, there's almost nothing.

Florence, this isn't. A LLC may exist, and one may form under one of the areas of convection, but right now it's got a long way to go.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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seminolesfan
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: East Orlando, FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73305 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:01 PM

I agree this is def. not a TS at this point. We are back to the Depression stage of organization, in my opinion.
The double team of some decent shear and being force fed old 98L has left TD06 reeling, but not really spinning.

Earlier today we had the pronounced 'comma shape' of the strong TD06/weak TS Flo with the blob of 98L being pulled in from the W. As the day progressed and the two became one, the organization of the entire system fell apart.

Looking at the WV and IR right now it seems as if the two have consolidated somewhat and the IR shows the typical 'upside-down v shape' typical of tropical depressions.

It is my opinion that as we approach the diurnal max tonight, we will see the organization of this system improve as the convection fires up.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: seminolesfan]
      #73306 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:05 PM

Quote:

I agree this is def. not a TS at this point. We are back to the Depression stage of organization, in my opinion.
The double team of some decent shear and being force fed old 98L has left TD06 reeling, but not really spinning.





Being force fed old 98L? Didn't 98L *become* TD Six? It does look like there are two systems that may merge into one, but I thought the one that was 98L was classified as TD Six.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73307 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:13 PM

Invest 90L was upgraded to TD 6. The remnant circulation of Invest 98L was still visible on last vis satellite around 14N and 46W.
ED


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73309 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:14 PM

Nah, 90L got the bump to TD6 and has been interacting with old 98L all day. I think that, along with some moderate SW shear, is probably what caused the deterioation throughout the day. Once one solid center consolidates and it gets tucked under the ridge I would expect things to begin organizing again. Until then it's gonna need good luck not getting torn to pieces. IMO of course.

edit: couple typos and Ed beat me by a minute on the 90/98 L thing

Edited by Myles (Mon Sep 04 2006 08:22 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Myles]
      #73311 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:17 PM

Ah,my bad... the numbers confused me.

What's the deal with 99L? I still see a good bit of convection with it, but HK declared it gone?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73312 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:30 PM

The 99L tropical wave is still there - near 12.5N 82W at 05/00Z. Low level winds continue to move this system to the west or west southwest, but stronger upper level southwesterlies are continually shearing the system. It should be onshore Nicaragua in about 6 hours.
ED


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73313 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:33 PM

Quote:

The 99L tropical wave is still there - near 12.5N 82W at 05/00Z. Low level winds continue to move this system to the west or west southwest, but stronger upper level southwesterlies are continually shearing the system. It should be onshore Nicaragua in about 6 hours.
ED




Huh? NRL's floater on 99L is nowhere near 82W... it's centered due south of Hispanola. I thought the area south of Puerto Rico that is on the floater was 99L.

This will teach me to go out of town during hurricane season.

Edit: NRL has now removed the invest. Looking at the large-scale GOES IR, it's hard to pinpoint anything of any significance in the Atlantic right now (including TD Six).


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 04 2006 09:17 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73314 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:42 PM

Whats left of 99L is to the extreme left center of the image that you were looking at. The centerpoint coordinates for the image have not been updated since NHC dropped 99L as an Invest. Hope this helps, however, it really doesn't matter too much since that wave is about to become history.
Cheers,
ED


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seminolesfan
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: East Orlando, FL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73316 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:48 PM

Is 06L still on the 24-48hrs to reach TS status timeline or has today's action put a big question mark on it's development?

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Hugh]
      #73319 - Mon Sep 04 2006 09:01 PM

I think the Navy guys took the day off for Labor Day. I was confused as well.

But I thought that the former 99L was what the NHC was referring to as a wave around 73W? It is difficult to follow which wave is which invest.

Is there a public source of what is and is not an invest? All I have ever seen is what goes up on the NRL site, or they magically appear in the GFDL model runs. There must be some place this is defined and I have missed it.

Bill


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