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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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TD06
Unregistered




Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #73321 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:17 PM

TO ME IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER MAY BE RE-LOCATING QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST, THIS COULD ALSO BE THE REMNANTS OF 98L. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THERE ARE TWO CENTERS FIGHTING FOR SOLE POSSESION. BUT IF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH WINS OR IF THE CENTER RELOCATES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE PROJECTED PATH. INSTEAD OF HITTING SOUTH FLORIDA, CENTRAL FLORIDA, OR THE CAROLINAS, (LIKE MOST PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING) IT COULD POTENTIALLY GO SOUTH OF THEM. AGAIN, THIS IS JUST ME, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE TWO CENTERS FIGHTING.


two things... you're a little out there wondering about it's track near florida. show us a model or explain a scenario that takes it anywhere near there realistically before contemplating that out loud. otherwise it's pure wishcasting. second... lose the ALL CAPS. in netspeak that usually implies yelling. a lot of people interpret it that way, so if you want your posts to remain intact, strongly consider the things i just mentioned. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 05 2006 02:29 AM)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: BillD]
      #73322 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:19 PM

Thus far, the GFDL has done a great job with TD #6, in forecasting it to become very disorganized--and pitiful in appearance--before a more rapid re organizational trend in the next 48 HRS or so.


WW-911


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73323 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:30 PM

13.5N 47W is about where I would peg the old 98L and yes, I was just getting around to posting on this, myself -- I do believe that the combined synergy of shear from the upper-level trof to Six's north, and a still relatively intact 98L to it's southwest, has really taken a bite out of Six today. Meanwhile, in response to a weakening Six -- and also having the benefit of far less shear, 98L appears to be staging a comeback. If current trends continue I would say that 98L has a fair chance of TCing by sunrise.

Six very nearly devolved into a wave this afternoon, despite an earlier appearance of a marginal TS and Current Intensities of 2.5 from just about all if not all agencies (as far as I have checked so far, Six did attain 2.5 from them all at one point). I was so very close to writing Six off for the evening (with the knowledge that it could revive, of course) when all of the sudden we are getting a blowup of deep convection near it's center -- which, I would still have to say is north of where NHC pegs it to be --- again, Six has had multiple cocs over the course of it's existence, but you can't really say that 98L is one of them. 98L is it's own entity --- frankly, 98L has been a weak, sub-TD tropical cyclone, already. I say sub-TD tropical cyclone, because it certainly wasn't a wave, has had a surface cyclone all along (and pressure estimated to be about 1008mb) and winds in the 20-25mph range. Just sub TD status, but then got upstaged and interrupted by 90.


Moving on to some other features - the feature to the east of 90L really should have been tagged as 91 for some time now, IMHO. At least NHC does mention that some slow development is possible with this Low. Additional slow development may also occur with the grab bag of features in the Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean. Have two surface trofs interacting with various waves and all getting some kick from a stationary ULL that is just weak-enough as to not be producing hellacious shear -- shear just barely low enough to perhaps allow slow tropical cyclogenesis to take place.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: weather_wise911]
      #73324 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:32 PM

To me things are getting the chat like look and a dash of Forecast Lounge on top for color. Remember the rules please as to proper forums as we progress this season.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Good Discussion here, much to choose from re: td 6 [Re: cieldumort]
      #73330 - Tue Sep 05 2006 12:20 AM

This has been an elongated system from day one and it has had no real center as far as a center of a system.

It has had lower points of pressure and stronget swirls. But, nothing that the rest of the system could spin around.

I could blame that on size but I don't think so in this case...whether its dust or shear or possibly too big to hold together without one strong low pressure cell and the ability of storms to wrap around.. it isn't going to happen this way.

Something needs to change. The next 24 hours should really tell the story.

Either we have a named storm with a plan or ...I'd think some other system becomes Florence.

Never count out the models that have been consistent in developing this into a strong storm, hard to discount that consistency.

Sleep on it is my advice. I can see a Dora track (and note Dora followed Cleo that was an Ernesto sort of track though intensity differed). In 1964 there were several storms that flew up the middle of the Atlantic.. all except Dora. Only takes the right storm to sit there during the one week when there is a strong high ridge in place for it to happen, rare.. but they do happen.

Easy to say Fish Storm... but can you be really sure?

Thanks for the good diverse thoughts here with good data to think on..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
florence fishing? or coming further west...? [Re: LoisCane]
      #73332 - Tue Sep 05 2006 02:48 AM

globals are trending a bit further west, amplifying things a little more along the future path of TD 6/florence. it is sort of pivoting around 98L like i'd guessed it might, and ought to remain the dominant feature of the two. short term should trend left of the forecast track, then maybe back to the predicted wnw path. expect future runs to show the first shortwave that GFS has demolishing the ridge just whipping by and not making a break. should result in a slow wnw path around the ridge periphery, which should probably nose a little further west in future runs. expect the weakness in the western gulf to become more pronounced with more energy from the first shortwave breaking off back that way, and the trough over the continent going into next week to show more equatorward digging over the continent with blocking off the canadian maritimes a bit stronger. end result i'm thinking here will be a sweep off or near the mid-atlantic coast, not the poleward lift of sharp recurvature shown in some of the models. that stall shown in some of the globals i'm chalking up to the globals overdoing the effects of the disturbance east of future florence, and overdoing the ridge erosion with a stuck system rather than a stronger system and stronger ridge responding to a greater amplification in the eastern u.s.
interesting that the 00Z GFS is showing all the projected atlantic activity recurving, no energy propagating westward.. and then a pronounced mean ridge in the western atlantic with nothing travelling underneath it.. and nothing developing either in spite of early fall amplifications. suffice to say that if the basin is ready for that, the western caribbean will try to activate.
anyhow, TD 6/florence will likely turn west tomorrow, then wnw afterward. the 98L disturbance will probably hang there to a degree or absorb into it's more pronounced twin swiveling by to the north. the disturbance behind these is likely to develop.
interesting that disturbed weather is persisting near south florida. it's more prominent than i'd have expected. ridging aloft, but a very poor sort of boundary at the surface in the eastern gulf to focus along. i'd expect that it won't manage anything, and will break down when the weak baroclinic zone to the north discharges it's energy out off the mid-atlantic with a shortwave and the support breaks down. if something did manage, it would either trend NE if the shortwave got it, or meander in the sort of col zone it's in.
interesting also that the globals are seeing (but not developing) the weak wave pair ahead of TD 6. it enters the favored u/a region that the wave/low 99L outran and left. doubt anything of it, unless there's a dramatic flareup along one of the wave axes.
HF 0649z05september

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 05 2006 02:56 AM)


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: florence fishing? or coming further west...? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73336 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:47 AM

Looks this morning that 06L is trying to wrap some convection around a coc somewhere in the middle of a broad area of circulation. IMHO we should begin to see a more dominate coc within the next 12 hrs or so, if not this thing may just get absorbed by that trough NW of it. Also noticed that NRL has 91L up now and we should begin to get some early model feed back on this system soon. Everbody have a great day! JOC

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73340 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:02 AM

This am (Tues.) there's a 91L invest out on the NRL site. I need to go look at satellite images, but from the visual they've got posted it looks a little sickly.

I'm liking the 5am track on the NHC site for TD6 .I hope that curve keeps curving and it moves away from the coast and up into cooler waters.

I've noticed SFWMD hasn't been running TD6 models, for the past day or so (the storm 06 one looks like it's Ernesto), but here's 91L

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Tue Sep 05 2006 10:05 AM)


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Psyber
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: madmumbler]
      #73344 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:21 AM

Florence looks like mostly a fish spinner because it's so far north. Might make it to Nova Scotia but it'll be weak by then.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Psyber]
      #73345 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:26 AM

Can't bet on it being a fish spinner yet, the NHC still has its doubts. The GFDL did have some Cat 4 winds in the NE quadrant at the end of the period, but the storm was not near land at that point. It's also a big storm (400 nm), so even if its a few hundred miles away it will be felt.

I'd like to see the new model runs showing the center further south as well. Remember Ernesto was orignally going to Texas.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73347 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:37 AM

Wouldn't further north be better so it curves into cooler water sooner? I haven't looked at any satellites or the latest model runs.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #73348 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:38 AM

Not sure you folks have posted this or are aware ?

Florence is born officially..

WTNT41 KNHC 051439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.


Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Sep 05 2006 12:08 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: madmumbler]
      #73349 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:46 AM

florence is up finally. it fused with the old center of 98L overnight into a now broad system. some southwesterly shear continues, that'll just keep it from tightening quickly. once it does it'll accelerate wnw. how far west it does end up is a major point in it's future threat. the ridge is going to give near the east coast, and allow a gentle recurvature to begin around next weekend. the presence of florence should cause some amplification of the features and doesn't seem to be doing it quite enough in the globals. if the runs showing now stand as to what will happen, it isn't much of a threat besides bermuda... but if they show increased amplification, worry that a digging trough inland in the eastern u.s. and stronger ridging off southeast canada will cause it to head closer to the mid-atlantic/northeast.
91L will probably develop. it should get the upstream wake of florence, likely in the form of northerly shear... which should slow but not totally inhibit development. it will probably also keep the track more southerly than indicated on say, the GFS. maybe not southerly enough that it doesn't miss the huge break florence will make in the ridge, but maybe...
HF 1547z05september


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: Psyber]
      #73350 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:48 AM

It is risky to assert this in confident tones considering the larger synoptic arguments that were anticipated and are now apparently coming to realization...

1) there is a large synoptic scale ridge pattern developing in the area ESE of Nova Scotia. This is an effective block to any recurvature. This will more likely continue to induce a westerly turn (if that has not already happened) and force the system to gain longitude.

2) there is much question as to the eventual amplitude of synoptic troughing slated to move into the western Tennessee and Ohio Valley areas late in the forecast period (120 - 144 hours), the determination of which will be telling as to what form the system takes when the inevitable recurvature begins...

TCs can instantiate their ascent in latitude many, many ways... Sometimes they stall, then resume an ENE motion, giving the longer term track verification the impression of "hair pin" turn. Other times, they are very smooth and gradual, going W-WNW-NW-NNW-N-NNE...etc...and out to the graveyard of the N Atlantic... There is no way to tell for certain which one Florence will utlimately take, but, the more gradual should be acceptable this time considering the current multi-modeled, multi-day guidance suggestion for these large scale forces.

The strength of the ridging in the NNW Atlantic will likely force a steering drive that is semi-circular around its SW periphery... That tends to suggest a direction of motion along 27N until near 70W and then "perhaps" a 320-330 degree motion very late in the period. That is about 5-6 days from now, so plenty of time to watch this and of course...even that timing is not entirely certain... In fact, the GFS is about 500 miles back E of the GFDL position.. Lots to iron out.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Sep 05 2006 11:53 AM)


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DrewC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Auburndale, FL
Florence is looking better [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73356 - Tue Sep 05 2006 01:42 PM

Wow, Florence has certainly started getting her act together this afternoon. Looking at the satellites, I cannnot believe how much spin she has now, after being just a big blob for several days. Even with the SW sheer, she has really been firing up some storms on the west side today, and appears to be trying to complete the circle. After reading the NRC discussuion about her large size and unfavorable conditions leading to slow developement, I did not expect to see as much circulation as there appears to be now. Is Flo growing faster than expected, or were my expectations just too low?

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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Florence is looking better [Re: DrewC]
      #73358 - Tue Sep 05 2006 01:52 PM

Florence has a healthy circulation center, but lacks healthy convection over it. There was a flare up on the west side earlier but now it is pretty far from the center. CIMSS says shear is quite low over and south of the center, but Florence only seems to want to fire really intense convection in the area of 20-30kts under the upper trough NE of her. I'm not going to try and speculate why this has happened...maybe a Met can explain why Florence cant get any heavy convection going over the center right now?

edit for typos

Edited by Myles (Tue Sep 05 2006 01:59 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
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Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Myles]
      #73362 - Tue Sep 05 2006 02:33 PM

The latest thinking on the track from the afternoon HPC discussion. Still thinking recurvature, but not a done deal yet:

CONSULT LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR INFO REGARDING
T.S. FLORENCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAY 3
FRI. COORDINATED TPC/HPC FCST BRINGS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER
WWD THAN YDAYS FCST... TO 29.5N 72W BY DAY 7... BASED ON RECENT
DATA SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM MAY INITIALLY BE A LITTLE FARTHER S
THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EAST COAST SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A WLY COMPONENT TO SUPPORT
RECURVATURE ONCE FLORENCE REACHES THE DAY 7 POSN BUT UNCERTAINTY
WITH ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM NOAM FLOW AT THAT TIME... AND
QUESTION MARKS ABOUT THE TRACK THRU DAY 5... STILL LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN TO SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FUTURE.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Myles]
      #73372 - Tue Sep 05 2006 03:00 PM

The visible loop suggests shear still is overriding the center and the sw quadrant, admittedly not as pronounced as the nw quadrant...look for continued improvement and then better initialization of the globals tomorrow...
All information points to day 5 in the forecast period being the crucial day for the eastern seaboard as to future track considerations...i.e. will it get past 75W or not?

--------------------
doug


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meto23
Unregistered




Re: Florence is looking better [Re: doug]
      #73373 - Tue Sep 05 2006 03:16 PM

why is the TWC saying it is moving wnw when direction is w.

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tpratch
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
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Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73374 - Tue Sep 05 2006 03:25 PM

The NHC's track is an average of the storm's motion taken over a 12 hour period. When storms take jogs in the various directions every 5 minutes, it helps to maintain sanity. They will break from the 12 hour average only after a major and maintained track change has been registered.

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