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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Nothing Imminent
      #73143 - Sat Sep 02 2006 07:19 AM

Other than a wave in the east atlantic (98L) there is not all that much to watch, flare ups in the west Caribbean, and two waves. Nothing is ready to develop right now, but we are nearing the historical peak of the hurricane season.

Things may change quickly, but the calm is welcome. Right now 98L has the best shot, so we'll conitnue to watch to see if this area persists over the next few days.

Yesterday was a trifecta of database issues, image server issues,and evnetually a dns servr failure that occured. Our DNS servers have changed so it may take a few hours for everyone to once again see flhurricane.com.

All issues were taken care of, sorry for the bit of downtime yesterday morning, and the "loss" of the site in the afternoon/evening due to a bad dns server.

Update to include model plots for new Invest 99L currently passing through the Leeward Islands.

Invest 99L

Current Caribbean Weather Observations

Sunday Update to add model plots for new Invest 90L in the far eastern Atlantic.

Invest 90L - Eastern Atlantic

98L (East Atlantic Wave):

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 03 2006 09:37 AM)


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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: MikeC]
      #73144 - Sat Sep 02 2006 08:12 AM

Seems like most models have 98L gaining a good deal of N/NW movement in the next few days.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73145 - Sat Sep 02 2006 08:21 AM

I see the NNW motion, that's a fish spinner.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73146 - Sat Sep 02 2006 08:32 AM

Not sure what models we are looking at but the 06Z GFS is showing a more westward motion.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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dizzy9479
Unregistered




Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73147 - Sat Sep 02 2006 09:14 AM

I thought the wave entering the Islands looked pretty benign this morning, but I noticed a WNW wind out of Martinique. Any thoughts on this wave?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73150 - Sat Sep 02 2006 09:36 AM

An update on this system - which is now Invest 99L - has been posted in the Storm Forum. I'll add the model plots to the Main Page.
ED


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inHISgrip
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73151 - Sat Sep 02 2006 09:39 AM

models

It is almost to the point now when I see any of the BAMM models going one way, I look to the other dirrection to see where the wave is going to go. And the only one's I saw going west were the BAMM models. GFDL, GFDT, CLPS & GFS have this thing gaining altitude in the Atlantic.

Edited by inHISgrip (Sat Sep 02 2006 09:41 AM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73153 - Sat Sep 02 2006 11:08 AM

98L looks to me like it could turn out to be a fish storm for just a little bit then head west as it could miss the trough which may be trouble for the east coast. 99L looks like a trouble maker for the Yucitan as of right now though I havent seen the global models on this one yet. It's all something to watch closely as we are indeed entering the peak of Hurricane season.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73154 - Sat Sep 02 2006 12:26 PM

nothing imminent is a good title. everything out there is a day or more away from developing.
98L was tagged first. the original circulation which was somewhat independent of the ITCZ/monsoon trough fused with it again and now is part of an elongated circulation cell on the ITCZ... which has the strongest convergence at its eastern end. that's probably where it'll try to close up again. usually with the weakest of systems like this you have to consider the BAMs, and they're pretty much shoving it under the western extent of the ridge after letting it drift around in limbo while stuck to the ITCZ for the next couple of days. globals take it up farther to the east and this would verify if it strengthens quickly. not going to happen though, probably going to head more westward.
99L is the one that concerns me a little more. it's a shallow surface low that has steadily been generating more and more spotty convection... has a passable amount now although it isn't very deep or organized. the system sped up westward and is now edging into the upper trough that has been over the caribbean. some globals show this trough weakening and leaving it an opening, but after witnessing the staying power of upper troughs on earlier systems to try the caribbean (read chris, Ernesto), i'd be hesitant to say it will do more than move west and not develop much or any, until the trough is clearly withdrawing. whether an upper shear axis is dogging it or not, a surface low like the one it has (island obs don't show it closed, so it is probably just a little aloft), it'll respond just a little to the remaining weakness in the western caribbean, and maybe try its hand at rounding the upper ridge if it's present enough to feel it. development of this thing would mean eventual trouble. the synoptic pattern would turn it up near the florida straits, if it didn't just remain weak and open and travelling westward.
there's another significant wave coming off africa. same plan as always, watch/see if it holds convection for a day, then place your bets. it isn't a slam dunk developer, but looks ok. globals give it a weak thumbs up.

ernesto isn't a tropical system anymore but merits some attention. the gradient winds the storm generated turned out to be strongest on the delmarva. the parts of mainland virginia and maryland bordering the chesapeake bay generally reported gale force gusts through yesterday, with sustained winds in the 20-30 kt range. the delmarva, especially on the atlantic coast and near the delaware bay, received winds more in the 30-50 kt range. winds were also quite blustery on the southern coast of new jersey. highest wind gusts were in the 55-65 kt range. highest gust i saw was 73 mph at wallops island, va. highest rainfall totals generally occurred along a line from wilmington nne to the delmarva, through southeastern va. the low became extratropical yesterday evening and decoupled from all of its precip, which is now strung along a weak front from nj up to western new york. there is still a tight gradient near the front with a few winds gusts to gale force on the coast, and a breezy/rainy day inland. Ernesto was a real sissy over florida (aside from a modest drenching in places), but was a little less forgettable further north, albeit still mostly a nuisance storm.
HF 1627z02september

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 02 2006 12:27 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73155 - Sat Sep 02 2006 01:15 PM

98 actually impresses me as having more long-term potential than 99. Both look slightly promising, as have so many this season, only to be snuffed out by our Year of Shear & Dry Air.

99L appears to be a wave about to have a date with moderately strong shear , and perhaps even South America land interaction/thunderstorm outflow boundaries/etc., too. Hurricane Graveyard stuff. I would toss it a bone and say that if it can fight off the shear, and if it does not race too much of itself into northern S. America, and if it does not choke on all the dry air in the immediate area, and if it does get into the central Caribbean without getting hung up on some mountainous land mass, and does not get attacked by some outflow boundaries in the area, then we may have something more to concern ourselves with. Lots and lots of those 2006 Ifs.

98L, on the other hand, seems to be enjoying the benefit of protection within it's "broad elongated low/mid level circulation." Air surrounding 98 is juicier, and for the next several days it would appear that shear will be light south of roughly 17N. In addition, no land. This combination of a slightly more favorable environment *and* more time within such an environment leads me to conclude that 98 has the better chances of the two.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: cieldumort]
      #73157 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:03 PM

90L has just been posted on the Navy site .

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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: HCW]
      #73158 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:24 PM

Seems to me that the NHC has shown its interest also.
They've just added the area of interest in their Tropical Outlook at 5.30Pm EST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/022132.shtml

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4

Kirk J.

Edited by Bee-Beep (Sat Sep 02 2006 06:25 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: HCW]
      #73159 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:24 PM

98L's swirl is looking pretty healthy for a non-named system..

This may yet become a named system by Labor Day based on how it looks presently on sat imagery at 12N and 37W

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73160 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:35 PM

I agree.. 98L looks the most promising right now.. And looks to be better organized, starting to see some CCW around a center maybe.... keeping a close eye on it...

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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73162 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:43 PM

Quote:

I agree.. 98L looks the most promising right now.. And looks to be better organized, starting to see some CCW around a center maybe.... keeping a close eye on it...




Looks like the NRL has split 98L in to two separate invests. 98L is the dissapting feature at 11W 41N. 90L is the area to its east that most likely you are referring to, at 11W 37N, roughly. This looks like it has a shot if it stays on a westward course. A lot of shear up at 18N.


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: 7 Deadly Zins]
      #73163 - Sat Sep 02 2006 06:48 PM

Yeah thanks.. It was a bit confusing.. I just gave the sat imagery a glance a picked an invest number! thanks for the correction..

Still though..seeing some circulation with it out there..something to definitely watch this weekend...


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: ElizabethH]
      #73166 - Sun Sep 03 2006 12:56 AM

story earlier today still holds. 99L is getting ripped at by shear, and isn't going to develop very much through the holiday weekend. there are early signs the TUTT shear axis is weakening, but it may not matter. 98L is being subsumed by the recently christened 90L (invest 21 on the season); the two are too close for both to develop. 90L has the advantage of stronger convergence from upstream, and should win. there's another wave about to pass south of the CV islands that looks decent as well. also some disturbed weather hanging near the bahamas from the leavings of Ernesto's recurvature and the blocking pattern to the north. it doesn't really have any structure right now and shear is moderate. it will have to persist for a while before anything happens. oughta be a storm or two next week, regardless.
HF 0456z03september


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73167 - Sun Sep 03 2006 02:06 AM

I'm about equally impressed with 90 & 98. 90 has the benefit of being the new kid on the block, and already showing quite a good bit of at least mid-level rotation. However, 98 continues to become far more convectively active overnight tonight, with what is arguably a pulse/mcv event going on at this hour. Believe 98 could be the one to surprise on the upside - what would really be a kicker would be to see 98 pull ahead and TD, and for 90 to also TC, just a day or so later.

Model support for one or the other looks pretty good, with the latest runs beefing up the idea that embryonic tropical cyclogenesis is underway. Models do not really support the idea of both 90 & 98 developing, tho.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: MikeC]
      #73175 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:38 AM

Looks like they've dropped 98L off the Navy page this morning. They've only got 90L and 99L listed.

On visible this morning, 90L looks like to me that it's starting to get its act together.

I'm hopeful it might be a fish storm. *LOL*
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nothing Imminent [Re: madmumbler]
      #73183 - Sun Sep 03 2006 11:29 AM

It is interesting how they split 98 up (into 98 and 90) - and then apparently at 0300z chose to keep the one with the most spin. Realistically, it would have been reasonable to keep this as one Invest all along.

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