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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Watching System in Eastern Caribbean
      #73191 - Sun Sep 03 2006 03:11 PM

Looks like a Historical Hurricane could be into play from what the models put it at. Florida and the Carolinas and possibly the northeast coast need to moniter the progress of TD6 as it churns more west as the days go by. Looks like a Floyd like storm but still needs to be watched for any changes. The new GFS weakens the storm to a depression heading up the east coast of Florida. Though I believe there may be a Hurricane by 2 weeks heading up somewhere along the coastline. Watch and see. The most interesting storm yet this year in my terms.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: allan]
      #73193 - Sun Sep 03 2006 03:17 PM

It's very large, that's for sure. Signs of outflow can be seen in the latest GOES loop, but I'm going to let a day's worth of official forecasting go by before I really start paying attention.

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[witty phrase here]


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: allan]
      #73216 - Sun Sep 03 2006 07:43 PM

The storms that curve out to sea do not develop this close. It's stoms like Debby that develop way out there and curve because it gets stronger. I have a feeling that this one may be exactly like Hurricane Floyd. We all remember that one is the second largest scale Hurricane to be seen in the Atlantic other than Hurricane Allen which covered the whole GOM. GFS is scaring me a bit by having 2 hurricanes right in back of eachother in 144 hous take aim at the east coast. Wonder what the long GFS shows of these two. Won't get it till 10 tonight. I just thought that was interesting. Here comes Florence by the latest tomorrow afternoon. Everyone on the East Coast needs to be on guard with this storm. It developed right around where Floyd did and the models are taking a simular path as Floyd did. All models have shifted a bit south since 8 a.m. Very interesting to see what plays out with TD6 AKA Florence by tommorrow. Ciao!

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sun Sep 03 2006 07:45 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic [Re: allan]
      #73279 - Mon Sep 04 2006 01:51 PM

Quote:

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATH OF FLO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS PREDICTING A FISH STORM, LETS NOT FORGET A LOT AND MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL TAKE THIS STORM IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHEAST, WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE TILL THE 5 PM FORECAST TRACK TO COME, THEN WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON WHAT THE NHC IS THINKING CONCERNING THIS STORM FUTURE TRACK. FEEL FREE TO SEND SOME FEEDBACKS!!



Right on! Exactly what I was saying earlier. May not be a fish storm and people just not taking this storm like a possible threat. People need to be watching this. Just because its moving NW and is far out there does not mean this will be a fish storm. I think it could be a Hurricane for the East Coast. Not really seeing the strongess of this trough that other people are seeing.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: allan]
      #73320 - Mon Sep 04 2006 09:58 PM

I dunno guys things tell me that a new center of circulation is forming just north of where the current one is now.. 11 p.m. will tell. I do believe this blow up occuring with TD6 is a re-organization. Give it some time and we will have Florence without a problem. Future?? We really dont know.. Needs some watching. 99L is a wave and will continue to stay as a wave. No development expected with that anymore. GFS shows a 3 storm parade across the Atlantic. It really is starting to heat up out there...

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5 [Re: allan]
      #73326 - Mon Sep 04 2006 10:43 PM

TD6 has been flaring up pretty good the last few frames. I think it is time to go big or go home and have a quick poll to see where everyone thanks the storm will go.
Where will TD6 go?
You may choose only one
Fish(out to sea)
SE coast(FL to the Carolinas)
New England


Votes accepted from (Mon Sep 04 2006 10:43 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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