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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Florence???
      #73269 - Mon Sep 04 2006 11:09 AM

This might be an interesting test of your forecasting skills because it requires some consideration of both intensity and forecast track. On the assumption that TD6 will eventually become Hurricane Florence, tell me:

1) At what Date/Time (gmt) will Florence become a hurricane?

and

2) At what latitude and longitude will this happen?

Verification will be as determined by future NHC bulletins. Please attempt to get your forecasts posted by 12Z (8am EDT) on Tuesday morning. You can state your rationale for your forecast if you wish, but it is not required. Nobody fails on this one - its just an exercise that will make some of you realize just how difficult tropical cyclone forecasting can often be, so don't be afraid to participate - you might just come up with the best guess. You can change your forecast as often as you wish - right up until 8am (EDT).
Good Luck!
Cheers,
ED


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73271 - Mon Sep 04 2006 11:18 AM

00z Thursday, Sept. 7th is my guess, for the reasons outlined on my latest blog.

Oops, forgot to add the lat/lon. (That's what happens when my reading comprehension fails!) 19.5N, 51.5W.


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73282 - Mon Sep 04 2006 02:57 PM

1) My belief is that Florence will become a Hurricane at 12Z on Thursday Sept. 7th.

2) It will happen on 20.4N / 53.9W

Thanks.



Edited by Bee-Beep (Mon Sep 04 2006 06:57 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73291 - Mon Sep 04 2006 04:41 PM

I'll say a hurricane Wednesday Sept 6th at 12Z.

18.0N 50.6W

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73299 - Mon Sep 04 2006 05:50 PM

I believe that TD#6 will become Gordon on Thursday am at CAT 1 around 18N 50W
I think Florence will be declared on 99L just before she nosedives into Mexico just Southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. She will give Gordon a little upstaging briefly. Then cross over into the east PAC. All of this will come about by Thursday 8:00pm EDT.Full moon and everything you know.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Mon Sep 04 2006 05:53 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73301 - Mon Sep 04 2006 06:16 PM

Well this should really scratch some heads. Decided to play a long shot:

Date/Time: 08/0300Z
Lat/Long: 17.3N 58.3W

Rationale: Was HF correct about 98L?

Cheers,
ED


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73302 - Mon Sep 04 2006 06:34 PM

Friday, Sept. 8 - 1500Z

21.9N 54.8W


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73318 - Mon Sep 04 2006 08:58 PM

Thursday Sept 7th at 06Z.

18.0N 51.5W

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: stormchazer]
      #73334 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:43 AM


Sept 9 0300Z 22.5N 63.5W

If 90 survives the next few days. Otherwise, would favor old 98 attempting to pull an Ernesto later in the week, or perhaps our 91L yet not known.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: cieldumort]
      #73335 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:07 AM

Thanks to all of those that attempted this. TD6 looks mighty disorganized this morning as the southwesterly shear continues to hamper organization.
ED


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Tropical Storm Florence [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73353 - Tue Sep 05 2006 12:16 PM

It is official. Florence has developed and many models show a curving to the north and west. Today it was announced that all interest along the east coast from florida to main should start to monitor this system. I do not think this will weaken before it strengthens and also i do not think this system will curve away soon enough. I am going to have to agree with all the models on this one.
Will Florence Make a U.S. Landfall?
You may choose only one
Yes
No
Maybe


Votes accepted from (Tue Sep 05 2006 12:15 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Tropical Storm Florence [Re: Ryan]
      #73354 - Tue Sep 05 2006 12:26 PM

Do you mind my asking who you heard or read stating Florida to Maine should begin watching this system ?

I suggested this as a prelimary lead risk assessment based on what I felt were strong arguments a couple days ago: I just want to be certain that this is coming from an "official" source - which I am not.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Sep 05 2006 12:27 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73355 - Tue Sep 05 2006 12:32 PM

Strongly suspect/suggest that the largeness of the circulation envelope is partial for why it survives to upgrade status when the convective morphology is so disrupted looking..

Which...no one sensible would argue! It does look a little ragged, doesn't it?

But, there is a tremendous amount of mass caught up in cyclonic curl with this system already and enough convection to persist to help excite. It is safe to note that larger systems are notoriously more capable of fending off hostilities in their environments... Considering the shear is unanimously, by all models and reasonable analysis therein, predicted to lesson, the immediate history of Flo's ability to survive can and should be taken into consideration...

But, agreed - it would be nice to see the convection really wrap bodily around the rotation before getting too excited.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Sep 05 2006 12:34 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73361 - Tue Sep 05 2006 02:22 PM

dont know why my above post was erased but Florence is no threat to the U.S. maybe only a 10-20% chance for Cape Cod.....this system wont get past 65-70W only Bermuda has a chance near 50%.....If I was there..I would be alittle more concerned....there is a big trough over the eastern U.S. and this isnt going to majically dissapear!!!

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: scottsvb]
      #73370 - Tue Sep 05 2006 02:48 PM

What if the models come out tonight with a less amplified trough nearing the EC...??
Would that count as disappearing?

Point being...we are still just discussing forecasts, which are based on data far less than absolute.

Perhaps what you meant to say was something along the lines of, "If the current model depiction verifies as is, it is difficult to imagine Flo' directly threatening the EC"... That would be something at least I could agree with.


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hisnamewas
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Loc: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73415 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:39 PM

would you all say that south florida is probably not going to be hit? i mean i know that forecast tracks change frequently but this looks like it would curve up the coast.

--------------------
been through frances, jeanne, katrina and wilma.


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: hisnamewas]
      #73419 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:56 PM

5 Day Forecast is pretty much hard to foresee. Ernesto was a good example and loads of storm before that pretty much beat forecasters to foresee where EXACTLY a storm is going. This may end-up as a "Fish Spinner", a NE/Mid-Atlantic Storm or a Florida Storm. IT's way too early to say if there will be a weakness in 'The Trough' but most of the models have it recurving to the North but some takes it somewhere in the NE/Mid-Atlantic and quite a few takes it to Florida.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4

Kirk J.

Edited by Bee-Beep (Tue Sep 05 2006 09:23 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Bee-Beep]
      #73425 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:02 PM

that stuff tip was talking to me about... another block trying to set up off the canadian maritimes, is what would probably make this storm really interesting. all that really has to happen is that the first shortwave zips by and the ridge holds a tad longer... long enough to let the canadian high to come down and create another blocking situation, and cause troughing in the eastern u.s. to amplify some.
two potential results out of that... the storm is forced slowly north around the block if the ridging doesn't hold as long or end up as pumped from the hurricane, or the falling heights over the u.s. and the block result in a more prolonged nw track and make it a threat.
HF 0203z06september


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tuxer
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73432 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:49 PM

I think Florence will be at hurricane strength in the next 24-48 hours. Looking at the historical tracks, it seems pretty rare for a storm that develops in that region of the Atlantic to threaten the US shore... it will curve north.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Florence??? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73581 - Sun Sep 10 2006 08:01 AM

None of us did very well with this since the closest forecast was 27 hours off in time and over 250 miles off in distance. Florence became a Hirricane at 10/06Z at 27.1N 65.2W.

Thanks for giving it a try though.
Cheers,
ED


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