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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Florence nearing Hurricane Status
      #73393 - Tue Sep 05 2006 05:49 PM

4 AM EDT 9 Sep Update
US Air Force Reserve Weather Reconnaisance has now departed from their first mission into Tropical Storm Florence. They relocated the center to the south of where satellite estimates had it placed. Maximum flight level wind speed on this mission was 61 kts, or 70.2 mph.
Still shy of Cat 1 Hurricane status. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 345 nautical miles. Mainly in the NE Quadrant.
Wave just East-Southeast of Florence was designated 93L, by the Navy last night.
~danielw
0745Z AVN IR Enhancment



7AM 6 Sep Update
Florence is still maintaining itself as a large, but relatively weak Tropical Storm moving west northwest through the Atlantic.

Most likely the storm will recurve away from land, and I'll avoid trying to "wishcast" it westward any. We'll continue to watch it for surprises, though. Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic has a small chance to develop over the next few days as well.

- Mike C.

Original Update
We're very near the statistical peak of the hurricane season, and the Atlantic basin is acting in kind. Tropical storm Florence was designated this morning after two days of depression status. The storm is likely to slowly intensify while it consolidates and then rapidly intensify later this week as atmospheric conditions become more optimized. Most model guidance is recurving the system off the east coast to the west of Bermuda, and this solution looks to be the most likely path--however it has trended west some over the last couple of days, so the threat to the mid-Atlantic up to the Canadian Maritimes isn't completely nil. The strength of ridging in the northwestern Atlantic and the degree to which a first shortwave bypasses and a subsequent trough dig into the Eastern U.S. also have bearing on what Florence does. It is likely to be a significant hurricane by this weekend.

Behind Florence is another wave with a surface low. It is designated Invest 91L right now, the 22nd Invest of the year. Several global models show this feature developing and several show little change. It has limited convection right now, and only a broad circulation. The proximity to Florence may result in it being sheared in a couple of days, but right now the proximity doesn't seem to have any adverse affect on the disturbance. It will likely move west to west-northwest behind Florence through the week, under strong ridging in the central Atlantic.
Disturbed weather near Florida remains disorganized. Waves entering and passing through the eastern Caribbean lack organization as well. Some globals show the next wave coming off Africa developing some as well, but a strong trough off Northwest Africa may take it up, according to several models, if it were to develop early.

Chance for east central Atlantic wave (91L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours, about 5.5.
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]






Tropical Storm Florence

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Florence

93L (Eastern Atlantic wave):
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 05:20 AM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Recurve [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73396 - Tue Sep 05 2006 06:38 PM

I've noticed the new GFDL is now recurving further east. Is it using the same coordinates that the NHC is using which was shifted south this AM or is it working on the old ones? Also, to curve that early doesn't that move the ridge crossing the US faster west?

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Sep 05 2006 06:39 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Recurve [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73397 - Tue Sep 05 2006 06:58 PM

Yeah i've noticed that to but like the NHC which I strongly agree that the global models are really overdoing it. Things should get more better tommorrow. It's something to watch. Dr. Lyons from TWC says that Bermuda and the whole east coast needs to be on guard so it is not yet official that the storm will recurve that fast. Clearly I doubt it. Probably a track like Edwaurd (1996) will occur. Not too accurate on that yet.

no need to quote another user's entire post when the same words are one inch above. very redundant. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 05 2006 07:12 PM)


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
FNMOC [Re: allan]
      #73399 - Tue Sep 05 2006 07:46 PM

Check out this link:
http://surfinfo.surfline.com/html/fnmoc.html
the thing I really noticed was not Florence but the disturbance behind it on like day six!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: FNMOC [Re: richisurfs]
      #73401 - Tue Sep 05 2006 07:53 PM

Looks like a new center is forming or has formed and a big blow up is going on. 50 mph. is my guess on the 11 p.m. advisory. Sorry bout that last error Hank. If it continues to strengthen like this then this will be able to either break the ridge or cut the trough like Isabel did in 2002. Created a stationary front over it and moved northwest. This could happen to but i'm not putting any bets on yet until it reaches just north of Puerto Rico. Heres that image of Florence which continues to strengthen a bit rapidly... Looks like the shear has weakened alot. Hurricane by tommorrow?? maybe.. just needs to be watched http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html


--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 05 2006 07:54 PM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: FNMOC [Re: richisurfs]
      #73409 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:01 PM

Quote:

Florence will make landfall in northern Florida and slide up to North Carolina; however; Gordon will be The Big One for 2006.




What makes you think that? Man look at the explosion of convection around Florence, I don't think it is over the center but it will be soon, this thing is ready for takeoff.

--------------------


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: FNMOC [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73411 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:11 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Florence will make landfall in northern Florida and slide up to North Carolina; however; Gordon will be The Big One for 2006.




What makes you think that? Man look at the explosion of convection around Florence, I don't think it is over the center but it will be soon, this thing is ready for takeoff.




I believe that the first part of this post should have been in the Forecast Lounge. However, it was posted here. Without any justification and I removed it from the thread.
The thought below appears to follow the posting lines with reasoning behind the comment. However short it might be.


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: FNMOC [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73412 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:12 PM

This whole pattern is begining to evolve similar to the aforementioned Eduard (96) or the 2003 Isabel storm. Although I believe that Isabel made it to Cat 5 before weakening somewhat, there has been no evidence that this system will ever reach that strength. My thought here is, that Eduard was a little earlier in the year and there had to be a weakness in the Bermuda High to let him sweep up the way he did and Isabel was about the same time of the year in 2003 when it come inland between Cape Lookout & Cape Hatteras, then turned poleward causing a lot of problems in Va. northward. Can anyone tell me if the pattern is setting up the same way now as it was in 2003 or if someone can provide a link to that type of info?

Thanks, JOC


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: FNMOC [Re: allan]
      #73416 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:39 PM

Quote:

Looks like a new center is forming or has formed and a big blow up is going on... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html





With the LLC displaced nearly 2.5 degrees to the ENE. The shear will have to relax quite a bit before we should see any definite improvement in the satellite signature and wind field/ speed.
In the mean time a digging trough to the NW of FLorence is further complicating the forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73417 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:42 PM

Wow! It looks like it really jumped ENE. Does that move it closer to the trough, which will cause more sheer?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73418 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:45 PM

Repost of Ryan's post that was deleted.

If Florence follows NHC track, it looks as if it may make a landfall somewhere. What again are the different troughs and such in the atlantic helping to decide where Florence goes? People are saying this COULD be the big NE/Mid-Atlantic storm? Someone give me a reason to believe otherwise.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73420 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:10 PM

No. But we'll need visible imagery to confirm a real LLC. One thing is for certain, Florence is going to be quite large when she winds up......quite large. I remember Gloria's size when she crossed the Atlantic and ran up the coast. We were getting sustained winds of 40mph on Long Island when the center was off South Carolina. The entire east coast needs to watch her this weekend, as the models diverge quite a bit and the overall pattern is quite uncertain. I don't buy the GFDL at all at 18Z. Cheers!!

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: FNMOC [Re: Steve H1]
      #73421 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:22 PM

If my recollection of recent history is correct, Florence could be big trouble for any land in its path in the future. While it's obviously not all that well organized yet, it's got to be one of the biggest storms I've ever seen on satellite... and it looks like it's growing, too. The large size will likely prevent it from becoming extremely powerful quickly, but then again, I look at it, and I think about Wilma.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73422 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM

Climatology is certainly against any track going near the EC. Only two storms have ever even made it even west of Bermuda.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Sep 05 2006 09:59 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
analogs [Re: Hugh]
      #73423 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM

there's a mix in the globals right now as far as recurvature types. all are offshore, some are quicker than others. i wouldn't throw isabel in the list right now, but edouard from 1996 does resemble some. isabel was abnormal in that a blocking ridge drove it nnw from coastal nc to ontario before it rounded it and turned ne. none of the globals are showing a block that looks anything like that. there is some evidence that the high that drops into eastern canada during the recurvature period could block florence just like one blocked Ernesto. none are showing anything as dramatic.. just a very much slowed track and a long northward fetch towards the canadian maritimes. what may be messed up is the ridge breaking as quickly to let florence stop its westward movement (shortwave in front may not have enough to do it), and the resilience of the ridging in the western atlantic and tendency for more troughing in the eastern lakes into the mid-south next weekend and earlynext week may also be underrated. that's direction the models are generally trending, but out in the long-term they haven't started to gel around any one solution.
the NHC path looks apt enough for now and seems to be considering the evolving factors.
91L is already getting enough easterly shear to stunt its development, and the only thing that will help it is getting a little further along to the north. that sort of movement increases it's chances to recurve in florence's wake. the only model showing it doing much is the NOGAPS, and that one is maybe a tad out there (fast florence keeps clear), but not impossible. i may have overrated it a tad when i put it's development chances around 5.5/10.
HF 0157z06september


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darseys
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73424 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:00 PM

This is a post from another forum. What do you all think about it? I'm beginning to believe that the eastern CONUS shortwave-like trough may not entirely pick up Florence. As the ULL may be keeping the LLC of Florence further south and since the ULL is moving slowly, it may be slowing the forward speed and consolidation/organization of Florence, as evidenced somewhat on this infra-red imagery. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

At the same time, the Eastern Seaboard shortwave trough is already nearing the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and is about to exit into the deep southeastern U.S., where the southern half of the trough may cut off in Georgia and the southern Carolinas. All this is evidenced here. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/wv-l.jpg The southern portion of the trough, therefore, may not be sufficient to entirely pick up Florence. At the same time, the northern half of the trough may already be getting ready to gradually pull out, with the Canadian ridging building in in earnest.

It is just another piece of the puzzle that may need to be considered.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 05 2006 10:31 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: FNMOC [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73427 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:12 PM

The primary LLC is still located well to the WSW of the strongest convection. There is a significant flare up of convection on the eastern side of the storm, where there is greater moisture/moisture fetch and diffluent (spreading apart) winds at upper levels. However, the LLC has yet to reform over there underneath the convection and what is likely to be a mid-level low.

Recall that the overall circulation envelope of Florence is quite large, however, the center of which is likely somewhere between the two entities. Slowly but surely, the environment is becoming more favorable and Florence is getting better organized. It's still getting sheared some and there is some dry air in the environment (partially due to a dust layer in the vicinity), but such negative effects aren't as significant as they were earlier today or yesterday.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: FNMOC [Re: darseys]
      #73431 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:42 PM

The more south the LLC relocates (and it keeps looking like it's going to get relocated further and further WSW of the previous location), the further west the long-range track will shift, I think. I'm not sold on any long-range forecast yet. Climatology tells me Florence will recurve at some point before reaching the coast, but past performance is not indicative of future results, as they say.

All in all, I think Bermuda could be the biggest player.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73433 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:17 PM

Ditto on those thoughts Hugh.

I do think the bigtime fracture in the ridging that is being shown in the globals is overdone. Looking at the WV loop it looks to me like we could see a cut-off situation in the SE in another couple of days leaving the ridge more-or-less intact. If that happens and then you get amplification as the trough lifts out over the maritimes, the door would be open for Florence to go significantly further west.

Recurve it almost certainly will, but to what extent is the question - and WHEN. The floater shows a clear COC (but it may not be THE COC!) to the WSW of the big blowup in convection. The fight will be over whether the center relocates under the convection, or whether the convection wraps around the apparent COC. If the latter, AND we get a cut-off rather than a fracture of the ridging, then the door is open for Florence to get awfully close to the east coast from roughly NC northward.

I don't buy any of the long-term prognostications yet. The WV imagery is quite complex at the moment and there's a LOT in play here. I suspect we won't have any kind of real handle on this thing - in terms of whether its a fish storm or trouble for someone - until sometime around the weekend.

This much is certain - its a damn big system, and if it maintains its size and windfield it won't have to get you directly to hurt. Anyone within 200nm of the nasty side (e.g. N and E) when thsi thing goes full-bloom is quite likely to be unhappy with what shows up. Look at Ernesto - it was progged to be "no big deal" up the NE and yet I've seen plenty of pictures of sunk boats and flooded property! That one was so badly under-called in terms of local expected impacts in the Chesapeke area its not funny - a lot of people got badly hurt, especially in the marine interest area.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
The 11 is out. [Re: Hugh]
      #73434 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:24 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH



The NHC still isnt showing a curve out to sea, i do believe now it is 50/50 chance it hits land or goes out to the fish. I agree, Bermuda could be in danger, but so could the U.S. GFDL is showing a hurricane by thursday, Accuweather by friday, Skeetobite by thursday, wunderground by thursday. I think it's safe to say by the close of the weekend we will have a hurricane, granted all the forecasts are right.

Historical Map at this link:
[url] http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad [/url]
shows no storm even doing what theyre saying is possible..does that make it impossible?

Also, could someone get me a longer range accurate projected path for Florence or maybe the link?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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