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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73461 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:47 PM

Doesn't this count? From the West for 4 hours now.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJMZ.html

2 PM (18) Sep 06 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.9 (1012) NW 3 thunder
1 PM (17) Sep 06 91 (33) 77 (25) 29.92 (1013) NW 12
Noon (16) Sep 06 91 (33) 73 (23) 29.93 (1013) W 5
11 AM (15) Sep 06 89 (32) 75 (24) 29.92 (1013) NW 8


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73462 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 PM

Wanted to comment on HF's re: the better organization to the T Storms exiting Florida:
there was one period yesterday when the radar returns looked exactly as they did a week earlier when Ernesto was making its way Northward. There seemed to be a little vortex spinning northward just to the west of Lake Okeechobee with all the convection covering the east side of the state. I noted today the little vortex had in fact made it out into the ATL.
Pressures remained high here though...
Florence is still horribly sheared...the exposed area which seems to be the "center" is drifting westward.
Is this a result of interaction with 91L, which could cause a bit of a left turn?
I don't see visual evidence the ULL NW of Flo is diminishing, but the NHC says it will. Until then not much will change.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: weight of evidence [Re: doug]
      #73466 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:43 PM

As of 2:45PM AST the primary LLC being used by NHC has shifted north and found a nice cozy home under some of the deepest convection. Will be very interesting to see if this helps Flo get her act together tonight - or, not. You can watch it do this much easier with the aid of the RGB loop. This is time-sensitive, of course.

As HF wrote earlier, 91L is looking more sickly today. While there is some ongoing model support for it to become an officiated TC at some point this week, it would certainly appear that Six is eating it's lunch today, and this even before 91 gets to enjoy some potentially increasing shear up ahead.

Complex off of Florida does indeed have decent low-level inflow and convergence today, with even a hint of mid-level rotation and some reflection at the surface. Obs bear this out. However, I speculate that it's time over the stream may be limited, as the incipient fropa is at hand, provided it does not stall out.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: weight of evidence [Re: doug]
      #73468 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:51 PM

almost all the 12Z runs came west... consensus track is further northward before recurvature into or near nova scotia. trend the last few days has been to keep nudging the track further west in increments. if those northeastward recurvature tracks start disappearing from future model runs, i'd get a little more worried up in the northeast and southeastern canada. more recent runs continue to show stronger ridging and more blocking in the northwest atlantic, while the troughing in the east is shown as more energetic and amplified. if the hurricane were to lift straight up to 45n along a meridian, four or five degrees further west would spell a lot of trouble.
still an unlikely scenario, but not the sort of thing i'd ignore.
92L was labelled east of georgia this afternoon. it's somewhat frontally associated and probably not closed. the development mechanism here is all baroclinic, but if it closes off and generates gales, it definitely has a hybrid warm core look. also be interesting to see if it can deepen much. that thing whipping out energetically could speed and flatten the shortwaves supposed to cut into the ridge ahead of florence, and stagger its recurvature.
HF 1951z06september


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73471 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:26 PM

I here of a lot of talk about there is an outside chance of effecting the NE US or SE Canada. Can we here in the Carolinas and Va. give the all clear sign as of yet?

JOC


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73473 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:34 PM

Florence's projected path takes it away from the Carolinas/Va. However, not until the cone of uncertainty really shows Florence trending away from the mainland will it be for sure. I would say wait at least 24/36 hours of model runs for a statistical certainty of as close to an 'all-clear' as you can get.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73474 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:47 PM

"Florence never had a chance to get past 65-70W....strong trough off the east coast.....said and done."

Too many flies in the Atlantic ointment for such a definitive statement at this time. Of course it is the most probable track, but not the only possible one. As an example, yesterday morning the models really had no concept of Invest 92L - but this afternoon it is there.

Florence has been drifting north or north northwest all day today toward an area of stronger convection and at 06/18Z was located near 18.8N 50.3W. The core is still poorly organized so additional center relocations are certainly possible. Should Invest 92L strengthen into something tropical, or subtropical, or even extratropical, it could strengthen the ridge long before Florence ever gets to the trough - and change the forecast track.

All this means is that it is still premature to state with certainty at this time that Florence will be a 'fish spinner'...and...it is also a bit foolish to state at this time with certainty that Florence is destined to hit somebody. We are still in a 'watch' mode, waiting to see how the whole basin evolves over the next couple of days - and how Florence responds to that evolution.

For the time being, such absolute statements - for either future track - are better suited for the Forecast Lounge.
Cheers,
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73475 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:48 PM

Speaking of people asking for the "all clear" on a system like Flo, subject to so many variables, many of which are still unknown, the most sound advice should be to *never* write off an area even remotely in the realm of possibilities, IMHO.


I was just in the process of blowing up some images of 92L before it got labeled. Frankly, 92L looks something close to great at this hour, but there seems to be little in the way of pressure drops and probably only a limited time left over the warmest stream waters. Still, given it's fantastic appearance at this hour, I have to give it 33% odds of subtropical/tropical cyclone status within 24 hours.


Edited to paste text from NHC:
"A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS EVENING."


--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 06 2006 05:31 PM)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: weight of evidence [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73477 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:50 PM

I don't think you can sound an "all clear" until we have a clear break in the ridge and Flo has moved into it, and is far enough out to sea and weakening sufficiently that a rebuilding of the heights would not push it materially westward.

This is unlikely to be known until the weekend.

I am not biting at the GFS solution, but I do see in the WV imagery how it can come about. I rate this as low probability, but on the other hand, if it happens it will be very bad for someone on the eastern seaboard, likely northward of NC.

I would not consider this "likely" by any means but to sound the "all clear" is very premature. Flo is a very large storm and is prognosticated to get even bigger. The larger they are the further away they can be and still spell trouble.

Keep your eyes open - somewhere around Saturday we should have a decent idea of what's up in terms of the ridge either being amplified or broken down. That'll still give you enough time if things look "not good" to do something about it.


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Genesis]
      #73478 - Wed Sep 06 2006 05:38 PM

Is it just me, or does anyone else find it annoying when people use cute nicknames for these tropical systems...like Ernie, or Flo?? I remember back in 2004 when people started calling Charley "Chucky", the mods broke in and put a stop to it. Maybe I am just being picky, but I think we should call the storms by their given name and leave the creativity in the forecast forum.

--Lou


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73479 - Wed Sep 06 2006 06:32 PM

Excellent post Ed. The fact that 92L has come into play is another variable that could cause a void that the ridge may fill. Florence could stall for days out there before making her move.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Steve H1]
      #73480 - Wed Sep 06 2006 06:55 PM

The New England hurricane of 1938 was about 500 miles wide. And we know what damage it did. It was supposed to curve out to sea also.
So, while the odds are that Florence will curve we really won't know that for sure for a few days and people should just keep a watch.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #73482 - Wed Sep 06 2006 07:20 PM

Well hold on a minute here... Let's be fair...
Saying a system "was supposed to curve out to sea and it didn't" in 1938 is a whooooooole different ball of wax than making that error in this day and age...

They only had about 1/4 or today's theoretical understanding; no sat, rad, models... All they had were very sparse buoys and ship reports..

I think they had the right to screw up their forecast relative to today... Besides, that is why we have brains...because, we have been hammering all along that yes...the models depict this seaward but 'here is how it may fail to do that'... There are a myriad of ways still at this time range.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 07:22 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #73484 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:14 PM

Most models have shifted westward. I think they will be able to see 92L by the next run but could there be a big change? The new BAMM model doesnt show a recurvature anymore and heads about to the Carolinas in a week or so. Pretty interesting. What could be Gordon by tommorrow, could take over the trough and pull it northward and Florence could just be moving to the south. Not saying its going to happen but it could. Everyone on the east coast should stay on alert with this storm. Even Florida but I dont believe it will pose much of a threat but some good waves. This turn north may not occur if the trough lifts 92L up. Something to watch. Amazing how one of the models drastically changed course.. we'll have to see what happens with the rest of the models in the nest few runs.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73485 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:25 PM

is 91L dead? some models are still picking up on it but it looks like some are not...

--------------------
~jess~



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73486 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:26 PM

Where are you getting the model info...I haven't seen the BAMM shift.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73487 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:27 PM

I would ask what hour runs you are looking at and re check the BAMM run...18Z as of now is the latest I know of...



--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73488 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 PM

Quote:

Where are you getting the model info...I haven't seen the BAMM shift.



Oh sorry... Its the BAMS model not BAMM... heres the link.. The red line.. doesnt seem to turn
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73489 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:47 PM

Here are the 0z model runs...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/six/images/Storm-06-Spaghetti.gif

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: weight of evidence [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73490 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:55 PM

Oops! Sorry. My point was that there is some error in a five day forecast and conditions change daily and these storms
can surprise us. Yes, Florence should recurve but until she does we should keep an eye on her. I wasn't comparing the forecasting of the
1930's to the present. Of course, the methods used today are so much more advanced.
Actually, there was one lone lowly meteorologist who did some calculations and determined the storm wasn't
heading out to sea but everyone dismissed him. And the rest is history.


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