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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73525 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:39 AM

Florence is looking healthy this morning. The storm appears to be overcoming the shear that has been inhibiting the system for days (or the shear is finally relaxing enough). Convection stayed over the center overnight, and it appears that Florence will begin to strengthen into a hurricane. I am interested to see what the 11 am numbers will be. The storm does appear to be tracking slightly more north that the forecast points though.

On another note, the East Coast should begin seeing a ground swell from the system by Saturday afternoon, Sunday at the latest. With the large fetch the tropical storm force winds have been covering, it will be interesting to see how this translates into waves along the coast.


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: zacros]
      #73527 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:18 AM

LOL, the 11am numbers are the same and Avilla almost dropped the wind speed.

He does say at the end of the disco that Florence is beginning to look a little better on the last two visibles. He even adds that "maybe science will prevail."

I think the NHC boys see this year as a huge challenge and their human side is showing. Storms are not behaving as predicted especially in their intensities.

Florence continues to fight all the dry air on it's West and Southwest flank. It is a huge storm, but then it looks like a GOM storm in June or July. Lopsided.

If Florence doesn't become a hurricane it would be par for the season. Too much dry air, and too many ULLs out there.

But the track has shifted slowly over the past couple of days Eastward. Now Bermuda is in the crosshairs. Hopefully florence won't strengthen and the folks in Bermuda will just get a lot of gales and surf which I'm sure they are prepared to get year round.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: stormtiger]
      #73528 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:38 AM

Dr. Master's on his web page is discussing and El Nino starting in October which obvious would be good for those of us un the Atlantic.

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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Florence may be winning. [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73530 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:11 PM

Recent water vapor shots show Florence pushing out the dry air on the West and Southwest. If this trend continues, then Bermuda may see a substantial hurricane. More T-storms are building around the center. Florence appears ready to take off. Let's see if she wins the battle.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: stormtiger]
      #73531 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:35 PM

Forecasting intensity is running decades behind forecasting track. At least we have track worked out fairly well.

As I see it, Flo's largest problems have been, in order of importance: Flo's size, dry air, shear, less than ideal upper-level temps, initially marginal SSTs, and originally a competing system, or two. Nothing in that mix screams of rapid intensification, sure, but one would think we would have seen some slow pick-up by now - at least to 60MPH is where I was yesterday for this time today. But alas, Flo's woes won out (for now).

Read the above comment about a future El Nino. Really a place for another forum, but as I also think it relates to Flo in the bigger scheme of things, I would just point out that El Nino does not turn on and off like a light from a light switch. It is a process, and once it has reached a certain threshold (location, temperature anomaly and duration) climatologists declare that an El Nino has begun. What gets missed with this, is that for an El Nino to be declared, the culmination of events (duration, location, anomaly) were already well-underway. My point being is that we have quite possibly (and I think likely) been seeing the influence of an El Nino-like pattern for some time now - there is data which bears this out extremely well.

Best I can tell, Flo's primary LLC (certainly do believe that there is one!) is a touch north of where NHC has put it again. Zooming in on the RGB-enhanced (one of my favorites) it's really almost surprising they did not relocate it to the north, already

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #73532 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:47 PM

I've been keeping an eye on the satellite loops this morning since it seemed like Florence should be strengthening any time. To me, it appears that she's finally getting her act together over a consistent period of time. Convection has wrapped around, and she's appeared to have tightened up a bit.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: AgentB]
      #73533 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:57 PM

More database problems I guess. We're missing the 11AM.

Much bigger and Florence is going to start to make the earth look like Jupiter.


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Kitten0234
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Sanford, Florida
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: Psyber]
      #73534 - Fri Sep 08 2006 01:17 PM

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE READY TO STRENGTHEN...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
730 MILES...1175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N...59.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
07L? [Re: Kitten0234]
      #73535 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:43 PM

Color me confused. In checking the SSD site for Dvorak Estimates on Florence, lo and behold they also show T numbers for 07L at 21.9N/46.5W while the Navy site eariler dropped 92L and 91L and still only shows Florence, no 91L let alone 07L. Anyone have an explanation?

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: 07L? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #73536 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:53 PM

Florence is 06L; she's big and she's there.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Florence strengthening... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73537 - Fri Sep 08 2006 03:05 PM

Florence is approaching hurricane strengh.
NESDIS objective T numbers are now 3.5, which is equivalent to 65mph winds.

In the last 2 hours the TC is showing more polarward aspect to her movement... We shall have to let this evolve a little while longer to be certain of this, but the apparent westerly motion during the morning hours looks as though it is beginning to align with track expectations.

Bermuda is unfortunatley under the gun. It is unclear how intense Florence will be as she approaches the Island, but this is also a good time to remind folks not to focus on the exact center of the circulation, particularly in the situation such as this, where the circulation envelope spans over 800nautical miles in diameter.

These wind radii may actually even expand farther as Florence intensifies while gaining latitude. The mechanics for how that takes place are because higher ambient surface pressure exists as we look polarward from the tropical regions, and as Florence deepens and moves bodily into these regions, there will be an expansion of the PGF (pressure gradient force) in all direction. To compound, there is a large surface ridge pushing ESE from SE Canada over the next 48 hours, and this will only increase said gradient as Florence moves N and is then picked up by the middle tropospheric westerlies associated with troughing and accelerated NE along the leading edge of this anticyclone. Deep low pressure passing along the leading edge of a positive pressure anomaly means that gale force winds will extend quite far from the center, perhaps to nearly Cape Cod, as Florence makes her closest pass.

Correction: it is too early to let your guard down in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. New Foundland is a growing concern - right now it is beginning to look like Flo' may pass just SE of NS but make an approach on New Foundland. Models are fairly tightly clustered around a close enough pass to bring wind concerns to SE NS and definitely so for New Foundland.

A storm of this size passing even within 70 miles of Bermuda may carry some very strong wind concerns. As to intensity, every conventional technique for determining intensity prospects suggests she should be intensifying the entire re-curvature process... Once she gets nearly abeam of Bermuda's latitude, shear may begin to impact the system again but this is dependent on how fast she is moving along with the environmental steering flow.

Florence will likely be transitioning into a monster extratropical cyclone as she passes through the North Atlantic shipping routes.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Sep 08 2006 03:49 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
Re: 07L? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #73538 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:09 PM

Here is what the previous post was talking about

Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last Update: Fri Sep 8 18:37:09 UTC 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Users are reminded that the posted SSD position and intensity may differ from official information.
For official information:
Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu (JTWC)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/1745 UTC 23.7N 59.5W T3.5/3.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
08/1745 UTC 21.9N 46.5W T1.0/1.0 07L -- Atlantic Ocean
08/1433 UTC 27.1N 164.8E T1.0/1.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean
08/1145 UTC 22.3N 57.9W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
08/0833 UTC 25.9N 165.3E T1.0/1.5 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

Here is the address to that page http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

New storm out there?

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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thurricane
Unregistered




Re: Florence strengthening... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73539 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:21 PM

this seassion is strange it seems every storm has a hard time cranking up.
it seems the upper air patterns have been winter like all summer.
IF this this pattern stay the same we might only get 1 or 2 more storms
if were lucky.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: 07L? [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73540 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:41 PM

I guess the "new storm" is what is trailing Florence. Some of the models earlier in the week had that develop into something that stayed south and became a significant system. Hasn't been much discussion about it in the last couple of days, though.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Florence strengthening... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73546 - Fri Sep 08 2006 08:54 PM

Latest, 0015Z, Dvorak Estimates are giving Florence a Raw T number of 4.3, with a 6 hour average and Current Intensity of 3.8.
Estimated MCP of 989.8mb, and estimated max. wind speed of 61kts, or 70.2 mph.

4 Convective clusters are near the storm center. RECON will definitely have a bumpy ride if this convection persists.

0015Z Dvorak Image

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2006 09:28 PM)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: 07L? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73547 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:23 PM

NRL just put up 93L, what I would call the former 91L, and potentially could become 07L, but not yet.

Florence looking slightly better all the time, it is organizing at a painful pace. However Bermuda needs to watch this one closely.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
93L [Re: BillD]
      #73548 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:35 PM

NHC's take on 93L.

...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
LAST NIGHT THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE.
HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGEST THAT IT IS A SEPARATE FEATURE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS ALSO FORMED ON THIS WAVE NEAR 21N/22N.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE MADE HIGHER AMPLITUDE ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REFLECT THIS.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/090006.shtml?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73549 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:58 PM

With all respect to TAFB/ NHC, I don't see any mention of the wave at/ near 9N/ 43W.
Persistant cold cloud tops from 1845Z to 0115Z.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/jsl-l.jpg


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73550 - Fri Sep 08 2006 10:12 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2006 10:19 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Other Waves [Re: ltpat228]
      #73552 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:58 PM

Well, recon is in Florence right now. Most recently found a flight-level wind of about 43.7mph out of the NNE. Hopefully, recon will gather a much more accurate picture of what kind of animal we are looking at tonight.

93L (I agree that it should have simply been left as 91L) does have a pretty decent low level circulation as well as deep convection, but the convection is outrageously displaced to the SE of the LLC and is being ripped and torn by shear. It is impressive that it has retained so much of it's identity and was not ingested by Florence, after all.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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