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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 135
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: tpratch]
      #73375 - Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM

Hi everyone,
Is this what is supposed to make Flo make the turn to the NE?
I am looking at that huge trough to the North digging down
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

Thanks in advance:-)
Christine


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73376 - Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM

The Weather Channel may not have read the NHC's discussion...on the other hand they may be giving their own analysis of what they perceive to be the motion from the Sat pics, which I thought was a little WNW myself.

--------------------
doug


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: doug]
      #73377 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:02 PM

Another forecast betting hedges...from the NWS discussion in Wilmington, NC:

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST FLORENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN CURVING AS AN UPPER TROF/SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN US COAST. NHC IS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THIS
TRACK...BUT THEY DO MENTION THE TROF MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO PICK UP THE STORM.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Florence is looking better [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73379 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:10 PM

Florence is now finally getting itself together. Convection is broad but that will begins to end and get closer into the center. I really dont see this trough being that strong by the time Florence gets near the USA. ANything can happen. I'd give in 2 more days then we should have a better idea on where its headed. The track is moving west right now. Right now i'm agreeing with the NHC track. Very against the new GFDL model output. I do not believe that it will turn that quickly. Notice the same thing is happening with Florence and the upcoming storm that happened with Edwuard and Fran back in 1996. If Florence curves which I think will be between Bermuda and the USA, the possible "Gordon" could be a player for the USA. Think about it. The same thing that happened in 1996 is happening with this. Very interesting on how this plays.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 59
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.62N 80.35W
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: allan]
      #73380 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:24 PM

Cape Verdes Islands Tropical Wave
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has continued to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next couple of days as the system moves westward at about 10 mph. The wave is over warm water and is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and could be Tropical Depression Seven by Wednesday. Due to its more southerly starting position, this system is more likely to be a threat to land than Florence.

this one may be more worrisome but we'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days....

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: Sheeper]
      #73383 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:38 PM

Can someone explain this in English?


However ...Each run has shifted the track a little farther to the west. Given that the mid- to upper-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly north of the ridge axis...and that a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig into the central U.S. By day 5...the models may be overdoing the amount of shortwave energy forecast to generate the weakness in the ridge.


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: Sheeper]
      #73384 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:39 PM

Ya know--Florance isnt really at that high of a latitude.

I`ve heard that a lot today... but the fact of the matter is, Flo still has plenty of potential to affect land--so if you live along the east coast, please--dont let your guard down, and keep a close eye on the progress of this system.


WW-911


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73385 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:41 PM

Quote:

Can someone explain this in English?


However ...Each run has shifted the track a little farther to the west. Given that the mid- to upper-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly north of the ridge axis...and that a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig into the central U.S. By day 5...the models may be overdoing the amount of shortwave energy forecast to generate the weakness in the ridge.






The National Hurricane Center in last evening's advisory pointed out that the models might erroneously be combining a weak southern trough with the stronger trough coming off the U.S. east coast early next week. The point was that the cyclone could end up not recurving as quickly as models are currently indicating.


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seminolesfan
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: East Orlando, FL
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: Sheeper]
      #73387 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:44 PM

This (edit: the cape verde wave) is the one I've had my eye on all weekend. Flo has actually surprised me getting as much attention as it has.

However, I know I'm only an educated amature at best. So when the Navy puts up an invest, I give it a good look. So right now I'm focused on 06L/Florence and to a lesser extent 91L.

As far as our current flavor of the week, Florence, here are my thoughts:
1) With the interference of 98L yesterday and 91L hanging on her heels, I believe the current batch of model runs are almost worthless.
2)The more south the coc stays, the less chance the TROF has of recurving her before at least a serious landfall scare. The current westerly movement also gives the high a little more time to build in.
3)Even though she is still feeling some shear, organization has def. improved some today.

Still way too soon for predictions or forcasts, but the east coast should be in watch and wait mode for the next 24-48 hrs.

Edited by seminolesfan (Tue Sep 05 2006 04:49 PM)


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: Sheeper]
      #73388 - Tue Sep 05 2006 04:45 PM

what is going on with the are 15 and 68 approx? looks concerning, anyone know???

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo.... [Re: SebastianLou]
      #73390 - Tue Sep 05 2006 05:28 PM

Well I have to agree with what the NHC is seeing.. a weak trough and if this storm grows to a cat. 3 like Tom Sorels said on News 6, This may be a storm for the Carolinas perhaps the northeast. Not going to make any predictions in this yet. Still too early. I think the NHC is really making a wise decision and sticking south of the models who they and I believe are really overdoing the recurve to the north. Looking ok on IR. Convection is trying to get to the center. This still could turn out to be like Edwaurd back in 1996. It cliped Cape Cod with cat. 1 hurricane force winds. Fran was next which could be Gordon in this case. Again.. not saying it will happen but there is a chance. It all just needs to be watched. Very well put discussion from NHC and track is well put together to. They really should stick with that until they know what it could do. Ciao!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
new thread [Re: allan]
      #73394 - Tue Sep 05 2006 05:50 PM

i just added a new thread on florence, to bring things up to date. future comments should go over there.
HF 2151z05september


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