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Depression-Like System now bringing banding and training Heavy rains and Tstorms to parts of Tx. May drench the region for several days.
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
Claudette Undecided
      #7340 - Thu Jul 10 2003 11:09 PM

Although Tropical Storm Claudette tantalized us with her gusting winds of almost 70 mph, nearly reaching hurricane strength, she turned out to be a fickle woman who has changed her mind at the last second and is now sitting at an almost calm 50 mph and keeping us all on our toes. But itís not over till she sings. We still expect Claudette to strengthen and move into the Gulf of Mexico with her sights set on ??



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]


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mbrown
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7341 - Thu Jul 10 2003 11:56 PM

Looking at latest vapor loop images, center still might have jogged a little more north? If so and general direction is still nw it doesn't look like it will be over land very long. If conditions do improve for strenghting it still might have a chance of surviving. Will any of this have any bearing on future course?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7342 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:25 AM

Claudette got pulled in so many different directions today that she's probably just exhausted.
The next day or so will tell the story. I'm thinking that this is a temporary disruption and that she will get her act together in the next day or so.
Or not.

See ya'll in the morning! Oh...and thanks for the nice comments, you guys. I appreciate it! Reading that book during the off-season really helped me understand weather patterns a great deal more.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7343 - Fri Jul 11 2003 03:02 AM

This is one strange storm. A TS with a 10 mile eye yesterday and now look at her. Been checking the model verification and I think I'll go with the LBAR. Performed nicely on TS BILL. As of 18Z thursday it had the smallest tolerance.
As of 0700Z I'm going to go with the water vapor imagery and call Buras LA for the X.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7344 - Fri Jul 11 2003 03:32 AM

0645Z Dvorak on ssd.noaa page appears to have two lows separated by theYucatan Channel. Nice shot! Wish recon was in there! Water Vapor shows greatest push to the NW near the Mouth of the MS River.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7345 - Fri Jul 11 2003 05:16 AM

NHC needs to check the new models! NEW MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT STORY! NOGAPS takes C to New Iberia and the to Galveston. Better check your life jackets!
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE STALLED
BRIEFLY...BUT IT SHOULD RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. LATER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 11 2003 05:22 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7346 - Fri Jul 11 2003 05:27 AM

Land interaction will now be playing quite a part in Claudettes life for the next 12 hours or so. With there being quite a large but disorganised convective area, and a relatively small area of land, expect possible centre reformations as she tranfers to the Gulf. Keeping a generally northwest track for the next day or two, she should strengthen over the southern Gulf if she can make it there in one piece!

Regards,

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7347 - Fri Jul 11 2003 06:14 AM

All in all I am with you on that. The west turn is logical, but with this girl, don't rule out anything! She will look both ways before deciding!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7348 - Fri Jul 11 2003 07:27 AM

Good morning to all,
Just looked at the 06 GFS run and I have to say I have a few questions here. It shows the right location of Claudette at the tip of the Yucatan and then moves her to the central gulf, now my question here is why does the model start to slowly lose her as she is heading W? Also look at the E. trough around 72 hrs it dips S. down to the GOM. Would this not have some influence on Claudette? Any help and comments appreciated!




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Question?
      #7349 - Fri Jul 11 2003 07:32 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

At the end of the loop you can see what looks like 2 centers.
Does this mean that Claudette is getting ready to break up, or is she reforming?, and if so, is there a storm track change coming?


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7350 - Fri Jul 11 2003 08:04 AM

I don't I have ever seen a storm with such intensity swings over such an compressed time frame!

BIG NEWS: NNW at 0800, first time NHC has said that;
2nd BIG NEWS: LBAR, further east in LA, two other models more N, with slight west turn at end of H72; GFDL is out to lunch; only one model into Mx.

Gulfstream data entering models now. As JK says, don't look at any particular model, look at the trends.

Trough looks like it is amplifying pretty far south...N Gulf Coast, not out of the woods.

WHAT IF: storm does get bypassed by trough at end of 72 hrs, and then hangs around waiting for trough #2?

IHS,

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7351 - Fri Jul 11 2003 08:09 AM

Per the NHC "CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH"...... that ought to get somebodys attention...

Now is this motion just an affect from her interaction with the land mass? Maybe. maybe not... TS Bill ended up east of every model run 72 hours out from when he was forecasted to go... wonder if Claudette is going to follow suit? Probably not, NHC still sticking to the MX/TX landfall... but NEVER did mention anything about a NNW motion in any forecast track.... Ed said on his forum that I read last night Claudette would enter the GOM and move in a northerly direction.... maybe so, we'll just have to see how long this track lasts..

Another question, wonder if the pressure ridge that is supposed to build in n gulf coast gonna be strong enough to shunt C off to the west, as all the models except the LBAR is forecasting... Latest LBAR follows a very similar track to Bill...


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
I'm giving up trying to figure out Claudette
      #7352 - Fri Jul 11 2003 08:11 AM

Obviously despite the opportunities she has had, there were just too many miitgating factors (embedded tropical wave, competing centers, ULL, vertical shear, etc.) for her to crank up to her potential yet. It remains to be seen if she ever will.

Nearly all model guidance along with the NHC official track brings Claudette toward the Texas/Mexican border. Looking at the size and spin of the high pressure behind the front, if Claudette doesn't move any faster, she's going to lose all opportunity to catch the NC or NE Gulf.

I still think she's got the potential to make it up to weak Cat-2, but I'll believe it when I see it. Also, the possibility remains that Claudette could stall a day or two off the TX/Mex coasts prior to landfall. So anyone in those areas needs to be aware of the possibility of heavy rains and strong winds.

Assumption is that the trof in LA will not have a major influence on Claudette's future, my call is for landfall sometime Tuesday in Cameron or Willacy Counties, Texas (North/South Padre Islands) as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: I'm giving up trying to figure out Claudette
      #7353 - Fri Jul 11 2003 08:31 AM


Nice sat.pictures this AM



http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-86&zoom=1&width=800&height=600&map=latlon&type=Animation&info=vis&quality=100&numframes=8

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
New Models WOW
      #7354 - Fri Jul 11 2003 09:10 AM

What a difference a day makes. Look at the new Tropical Models. Now all but 1 puts the landfall around New Orleans. I guess the NHC will be revising their forecast a little at 11:00. WOW! Also, C looks to be on the upswing again and doesn't look to be onshore at all. May just graze the NE coast for an hour or two, but may not.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: I'm giving up trying to figure out Claudette
      #7355 - Fri Jul 11 2003 09:13 AM

Models I've seen have it hitting New Orleans right now. That's a big change from yesterday.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: New Models WOW
      #7356 - Fri Jul 11 2003 09:17 AM

JK Could this be because of the Gulfstream data?

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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Look out North Gulf
      #7357 - Fri Jul 11 2003 09:23 AM

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR


TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE (AL042003) ON 20030711 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

030711 1200 030712 0000 030712 1200 030713 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.3N 87.1W 23.4N 88.3W 25.0N 88.5W 25.8N 88.4W

BAMM 21.3N 87.1W 22.9N 88.9W 24.0N 89.7W 24.3N 90.5W

A98E 21.3N 87.1W 22.9N 88.7W 24.5N 89.9W 25.7N 90.7W

LBAR 21.3N 87.1W 23.1N 88.5W 24.6N 89.4W 25.5N 89.9W

SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 54KTS 57KTS

DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 52KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

030713 1200 030714 1200 030715 1200 030716 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 26.0N 88.4W 26.7N 88.0W 27.4N 87.8W 28.1N 89.0W

BAMM 24.3N 91.4W 24.4N 93.1W 24.4N 95.0W 24.3N 97.1W

A98E 26.5N 91.3W 28.1N 90.8W 29.2N 90.1W 29.4N 89.8W

LBAR 26.1N 90.2W 28.1N 90.1W 30.7N 90.0W 33.1N 89.9W

SHIP 59KTS 61KTS 59KTS 56KTS

DSHP 56KTS 59KTS 57KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 87.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 82.8W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 100NM


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javin24
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7358 - Fri Jul 11 2003 09:56 AM

I see something on the ater vapor loop like maybe the old ULL is pushing C NNW.It looks like the ULL is sandwiched between part of the trough and C.I thought the ULL was suppose to be dead by the accounts of the initial models?Now if the ULL continues to hold what makes her go W?Is it the high that has to fill in above the CGC?I am definitely still on the learning curve here; just a lot of ? to ask.By the way TONI the VS loop was nice, sunrise on a storm.You could really see her expand nicely.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7359 - Fri Jul 11 2003 10:04 AM

I agree, looks like the ULL pushing storm NNW or N now. Also, I see the trough digging all the way down to Brownsville, TX on the WV imagery. With both the ULL and trough solidly in place to the west, I am beginning to think this storm will never cross the 90 longitude line. Keep awake east of New Orleans.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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